An example of integration between en economic and an hydrologic model in the framework of water resource management problems

Growing scarcity, increasing demand and bad management of water resources are causing weighty competition for water and consequently managers are facing more and more pressure in an attempt to satisfy users? requirement. In many regions agriculture is one of the most important users at river basin scale since it concentrates high volumes of water consumption during relatively short periods (irrigation season), with a significant economic, social and environmental impact. The interdisciplinary characteristics of related water resources problems require, as established in the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC, an integrated and participative approach to water management and assigns an essential role to economic analysis as a decision support tool. For this reason, a methodology is developed to analyse the economic and environmental implications of water resource management under different scenarios, with a focus on the agricultural sector. This research integrates both economic and hydrologic components in modelling, defining scenarios of water resource management with the goal of preventing critical situations, such as droughts. The model follows the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) approach, an innovative methodology successfully used for agricultural policy analysis in the last decade and also applied in several analyses regarding water use in agriculture. This approach has, among others, the very important capability of perfectly calibrating the baseline scenario using a very limited database. However one important disadvantage is its limited capacity to simulate activities non-observed during the reference period but which could be adopted if the scenario changed. To overcome this problem the classical methodology is extended in order to simulate a more realistic farmers? response to new agricultural policies or modified water availability. In this way an economic model has been developed to reproduce the farmers? behaviour within two irrigation districts in the Tiber High Valley. This economic model is then integrated with SIMBAT, an hydrologic model developed for the Tiber basin which allows to simulate the balance between the water volumes available at the Montedoglio dam and the water volumes required by the various irrigation users.

An extended approach for service innovation study: an empirical research

Initially, service sector was defined as complementary to manufacturing sector. This situation has changed in recent times; services growth has resulted in a dominance of employment and economic activity in most developed nations and is becoming a key process for the competitiveness of their industrial sectors. New services related to commodities have become a strategy to differentiate their value proposition (Robinson et al., 2002). The service sector's importance is evident when evaluating its share in the gross domestic product. According to the World Bank (2011), in 2009, 74.8% of GDP in the euro area and 77.5% in United States were attributed to services. Globalization and use of information and communication technology has accelerated dissemination of knowledge and increasing customer expectations about services available worldwide. Innovation becomes essential to ensure that service organizations respond with appropriate products and services for each market segment. Customized and placed on time-tomarket new services require a more developed innovation process. Service innovation and new service development process are cited as one of the priorities for academic research in the following years (Karniouchina et al., 2005) This paper has the following objectives: -To present a model for the analysis of innovation process through the service value network, -To verify its applicability through an empirical research, and -To identify the path and mode of innovation for a group of studied organizations and to compare it with previous studies.

One dimensional exciton luminescence induced by extended defects in nonpolar (Al,Ga)N/GaN quantum wells

In this study, we present the optical properties of nonpolar GaN/(Al,Ga)N single quantum wells (QWs) grown on either a- or m-plane GaN templates for Al contents set below 15%. In order to reduce the density of extended defects, the templates have been processed using the epitaxial lateral overgrowth technique. As expected for polarization-free heterostructures, the larger the QW width for a given Al content, the narrower the QW emission line. In structures with an Al content set to 5 or 10%, we also observe emission from excitons bound to the intersection of I1-type basal plane stacking faults (BSFs) with the QW. Similarly to what is seen in bulk material, the temperature dependence of BSF-bound QW exciton luminescence reveals intra-BSF localization. A qualitative model evidences the large spatial extension of the wavefunction of these BSF-bound QW excitons, making them extremely sensitive to potential fluctuations located in and away from BSF. Finally, polarization-dependent measurements show a strong emission anisotropy for BSF-bound QW excitons, which is related to their one-dimensional character and that confirms that the intersection between a BSF and a GaN/(Al,Ga)N QW can be described as a quantum wire.

Methodology for adapting the parameters of a fuzzy system using the extended Kalman filter

When we try to analyze and to control a system whose model was obtained only based on input/output data, accuracy is essential in the model. On the other hand, to make the procedure practical, the modeling stage must be computationally efficient. In this regard, this paper presents the application of extended Kalman filter for the parametric adaptation of a fuzzy model

Regularized model learning in EDAs for continuous and multi-objective optimization

Probabilistic modeling is the de�ning characteristic of estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs) which determines their behavior and performance in optimization. Regularization is a well-known statistical technique used for obtaining an improved model by reducing the generalization error of estimation, especially in high-dimensional problems. `1-regularization is a type of this technique with the appealing variable selection property which results in sparse model estimations. In this thesis, we study the use of regularization techniques for model learning in EDAs. Several methods for regularized model estimation in continuous domains based on a Gaussian distribution assumption are presented, and analyzed from di�erent aspects when used for optimization in a high-dimensional setting, where the population size of EDA has a logarithmic scale with respect to the number of variables. The optimization results obtained for a number of continuous problems with an increasing number of variables show that the proposed EDA based on regularized model estimation performs a more robust optimization, and is able to achieve signi�cantly better results for larger dimensions than other Gaussian-based EDAs. We also propose a method for learning a marginally factorized Gaussian Markov random �eld model using regularization techniques and a clustering algorithm. The experimental results show notable optimization performance on continuous additively decomposable problems when using this model estimation method. Our study also covers multi-objective optimization and we propose joint probabilistic modeling of variables and objectives in EDAs based on Bayesian networks, speci�cally models inspired from multi-dimensional Bayesian network classi�ers. It is shown that with this approach to modeling, two new types of relationships are encoded in the estimated models in addition to the variable relationships captured in other EDAs: objectivevariable and objective-objective relationships. An extensive experimental study shows the e�ectiveness of this approach for multi- and many-objective optimization. With the proposed joint variable-objective modeling, in addition to the Pareto set approximation, the algorithm is also able to obtain an estimation of the multi-objective problem structure. Finally, the study of multi-objective optimization based on joint probabilistic modeling is extended to noisy domains, where the noise in objective values is represented by intervals. A new version of the Pareto dominance relation for ordering the solutions in these problems, namely �-degree Pareto dominance, is introduced and its properties are analyzed. We show that the ranking methods based on this dominance relation can result in competitive performance of EDAs with respect to the quality of the approximated Pareto sets. This dominance relation is then used together with a method for joint probabilistic modeling based on `1-regularization for multi-objective feature subset selection in classi�cation, where six di�erent measures of accuracy are considered as objectives with interval values. The individual assessment of the proposed joint probabilistic modeling and solution ranking methods on datasets with small-medium dimensionality, when using two di�erent Bayesian classi�ers, shows that comparable or better Pareto sets of feature subsets are approximated in comparison to standard methods.

Extended description of tunnel junctions for distributed modeling of concentrator multi-junction solar cells

One of the key components of highly efficient multi-junction concentrator solar cells is the tunnel junction interconnection. In this paper, an improved 3D distributed model is presented that considers real operation regimes in a tunnel junction. This advanced model is able to accurately simulate the operation of the solar cell at high concentraions at which the photogenerated current surpasses the peak current of the tunnel junctionl Simulations of dual-junction solar cells were carried out with the improved model to illustrate its capabilities and the results have been correlated with experimental data reported in the literature. These simulations show that under certain circumstances, the solar cells short circuit current may be slightly higher than the tunnel junction peak current without showing the characteristic dip in the J-V curve. This behavior is caused by the lateral current spreading toward dark regions, which occurs through the anode/p-barrier of the tunnel junction.

HF spectrum activity prediction model based on HMM for cognitive radio applications

Although most of the research on Cognitive Radio is focused on communication bands above the HF upper limit (30 MHz), Cognitive Radio principles can also be applied to HF communications to make use of the extremely scarce spectrum more efficiently. In this work we consider legacy users as primary users since these users transmit without resorting to any smart procedure, and our stations using the HFDVL (HF Data+Voice Link) architecture as secondary users. Our goal is to enhance an efficient use of the HF band by detecting the presence of uncoordinated primary users and avoiding collisions with them while transmitting in different HF channels using our broad-band HF transceiver. A model of the primary user activity dynamics in the HF band is developed in this work to make short-term predictions of the sojourn time of a primary user in the band and avoid collisions. It is based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM) which are a powerful tool for modelling stochastic random processes and are trained with real measurements of the 14 MHz band. By using the proposed HMM based model, the prediction model achieves an average 10.3% prediction error rate with one minute-long channel knowledge but it can be reduced when this knowledge is extended: with the previous 8 min knowledge, an average 5.8% prediction error rate is achieved. These results suggest that the resulting activity model for the HF band could actually be used to predict primary users activity and included in a future HF cognitive radio based station.

An analytical model for simulating the bond of prestressed concrete during the prestressed force release

A bond analytical model is proposed in this paper. The model is capable of reproducing the bond stress developed between the steel and concrete, in precast prestressed elements, during the entire process of prestressing force release. The bond stress developed in the transmission zone, where the bond stress is not constant, is also obtained. The steel and concrete stresses as well as the slip between both materials can be also estimated by means of the relation established in the model between these parameters and the bond stress. The model is validated with the results of a series of tests, considering different steel indentation depths and concrete covers and it is extended to evaluate the transmission length. This has been checked by comparing the transmission length predicted by the model and one measured experimentally in two series of tests.

Molecular basis of salt tolerance in Physcomitrella Patens model plant: potassium homeostasis and physiological roles of chx transporters

El suelo salino impone un estrés abiótico importante que causa graves problemas en la agricultura ya que la mayoría de los cultivos se ven afectados por la salinidad debido a efectos osmóticos y tóxicos. Por ello, la contaminación y la escasez de agua dulce, la salinización progresiva de tierras y el aumento exponencial de la población humana representan un grave problema que amenaza la seguridad alimentaria mundial para las generaciones futuras. Por lo tanto, aumentar la tolerancia a la salinidad de los cultivos es un objetivo estratégico e ineludible para garantizar el suministro de alimentos en el futuro. Mantener una óptima homeostasis de K+ en plantas que sufren estrés salino es un objetivo importante en el proceso de obtención de plantas tolerantes a la salinidad. Aunque el modelo de la homeostasis de K+ en las plantas está razonablemente bien descrito en términos de entrada de K+, muy poco se sabe acerca de los genes implicados en la salida de K+ o de su liberación desde la vacuola. En este trabajo se pretende aclarar algunos de los mecanismos implicados en la homeostasis de K+ en plantas. Para ello se eligió la briofita Physcomitrella patens, una planta no vascular de estructura simple y de fase haploide dominante que, entre muchas otras cualidades, hacen que sea un modelo ideal. Lo más importante es que no sólo P. patens es muy tolerante a altas concentraciones de Na+, sino que también su posición filogenética en la evolución de las plantas abre la posibilidad de estudiar los cambios claves que, durante el curso de la evolución, se produjeron en las diversas familias de los transportadores de K+. Se han propuesto varios transportadores de cationes como candidatos que podrían tener un papel en la salida de K+ o su liberación desde la vacuola, especialmente miembros de la familia CPA2 que contienen las familias de transportadores KEA y CHX. En este estudio se intenta aumentar nuestra comprensión de las funciones de los transportadores de CHX en las células de las plantas usando P. patens, como ya se ha dicho. En esta especie, se han identificado cuatro genes CHX, PpCHX1-4. Dos de estos genes, PpCHX1 y PpCHX2, se expresan aproximadamente al mismo nivel que el gen PpACT5, y los otros dos genes muestran una expresión muy baja. La expresión de PpCHX1 y PpCHX2 en mutantes de Escherichia coli defectivos en el transporte de K+ restauraron el crecimiento de esta cepa en medios con bajo contenido de K+, lo que viii sugiere que la entrada de K+ es energizada por un mecanismo de simporte con H+. Por otra parte, estos transportadores suprimieron el defecto asociado a la mutación kha1 en Saccharomyces cerevisiae, lo que sugiere que podrían mediar un antiporte en K+/H+. La proteína PpCHX1-GFP expresada transitoriamente en protoplastos de P. patens co-localizó con un marcador de Golgi. En experimentos similares, la proteína PpCHX2-GFP localizó aparentemente en la membrana plasmática y tonoplasto. Se construyeron las líneas mutantes simples de P. patens ΔPpchx1 y ΔPpchx2, y también el mutante doble ΔPpchx2 ΔPphak1. Los mutantes simples crecieron normalmente en todas las condiciones ensayadas y mostraron flujos de entrada normales de K+ y Rb+; la mutación ΔPpchx2 no aumentó el defecto de las plantas ΔPphak1. En experimentos a largo plazo, las plantas ΔPpchx2 mostraron una retención de Rb+ ligeramente superior que las plantas silvestres, lo que sugiere que PpCHX2 promueve la transferencia de Rb+ desde la vacuola al citosol o desde el citosol al medio externo, actuando en paralelo con otros transportadores. Sugerimos que transportadores de K+ de varias familias están involucrados en la homeostasis de pH de orgánulos ya sea mediante antiporte K+/H+ o simporte K+-H+.ix ABSTRACT Soil salinity is a major abiotic stress causing serious problems in agriculture as most crops are affected by it. Moreover, the contamination and shortage of freshwater, progressive land salinization and exponential increase of human population aggravates the problem implying that world food security may not be ensured for the next generations. Thus, a strategic and an unavoidable goal would be increasing salinity tolerance of plant crops to secure future food supply. Maintaining an optimum K+ homeostasis in plants under salinity stress is an important trait to pursue in the process of engineering salt tolerant plants. Although the model of K+ homeostasis in plants is reasonably well described in terms of K+ influx, very little is known about the genes implicated in K+ efflux or release from the vacuole. In this work, we aim to clarify some of the mechanisms involved in K+ homeostasis in plants. For this purpose, we chose the bryophyte plant Physcomitrella patens, a nonvascular plant of simple structure and dominant haploid phase that, among many other characteristics, makes it an ideal model. Most importantly, not only P. patens is very tolerant to high concentrations of Na+, but also its phylogenetic position in land plant evolution opens the possibility to study the key changes that occurred in K+ transporter families during the course of evolution. Several cation transporter candidates have been proposed to have a role in K+ efflux or release from the vacuole especially members of the CPA2 family which contains the KEA and CHX transporter families. We intended in this study to increase our understanding of the functions of CHX transporters in plant cells using P. patens, in which four CHX genes have been identified, PpCHX1-4. Two of these genes, PpCHX1 and PpCHX2, are expressed at approximately the same level as the PpACT5 gene, but the other two genes show an extremely low expression. PpCHX1 and PpCHX2 restored growth of Escherichia coli mutants on low K+-containing media, suggesting they mediated K+ uptake that may be energized by symport with H+. In contrast, these genes suppressed the defect associated to the kha1 mutation in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, which suggest that they might mediate K+/H+ antiport. PpCHX1-GFP protein transiently expressed in P. patens protoplasts co-localized with a Golgi marker. In similar experiments, the PpCHX2-GFP protein appeared to localize to tonoplast and plasma x membrane. We constructed the ΔPpchx1 and ΔPpchx2 single mutant lines, and the ΔPpchx2 ΔPphak1 double mutant. Single mutant plants grew normally under all the conditions tested and exhibited normal K+ and Rb+ influxes; the ΔPpchx2 mutation did not increase the defect of ΔPphak1 plants. In long-term experiments, ΔPpchx2 plants showed a slightly higher Rb+ retention than wild type plants, which suggests that PpCHX2 mediates the transfer of Rb+ from either the vacuole to the cytosol or from the cytosol to the external medium in parallel with other transporters. We suggest that K+ transporters of several families are involved in the pH homeostasis of organelles by mediating either K+/H+ antiport or K+-H+ symport.

Development of a wake model for wind farms based on an open source CFD solver. Strategies on parabolization and turbulence modeling

Wake effect represents one of the most important aspects to be analyzed at the engineering phase of every wind farm since it supposes an important power deficit and an increase of turbulence levels with the consequent decrease of the lifetime. It depends on the wind farm design, wind turbine type and the atmospheric conditions prevailing at the site. Traditionally industry has used analytical models, quick and robust, which allow carry out at the preliminary stages wind farm engineering in a flexible way. However, new models based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are needed. These models must increase the accuracy of the output variables avoiding at the same time an increase in the computational time. Among them, the elliptic models based on the actuator disk technique have reached an extended use during the last years. These models present three important problems in case of being used by default for the solution of large wind farms: the estimation of the reference wind speed upstream of each rotor disk, turbulence modeling and computational time. In order to minimize the consequence of these problems, this PhD Thesis proposes solutions implemented under the open source CFD solver OpenFOAM and adapted for each type of site: a correction on the reference wind speed for the general elliptic models, the semi-parabollic model for large offshore wind farms and the hybrid model for wind farms in complex terrain. All the models are validated in terms of power ratios by means of experimental data derived from real operating wind farms.

B2DI a bayesian BDI agent model with causal belief updating based on MSBN

In this paper, we introduce B2DI model that extends BDI model to perform Bayesian inference under uncertainty. For scalability and flexibility purposes, Multiply Sectioned Bayesian Network (MSBN) technology has been selected and adapted to BDI agent reasoning. A belief update mechanism has been defined for agents, whose belief models are connected by public shared beliefs, and the certainty of these beliefs is updated based on MSBN. The classical BDI agent architecture has been extended in order to manage uncertainty using Bayesian reasoning. The resulting extended model, so-called B2DI, proposes a new control loop. The proposed B2DI model has been evaluated in a network fault diagnosis scenario. The evaluation has compared this model with two previously developed agent models. The evaluation has been carried out with a real testbed diagnosis scenario using JADEX. As a result, the proposed model exhibits significant improvements in the cost and time required to carry out a reliable diagnosis.

An analytical model for simulating the bond of prestressed concrete during the prestressed force release

A bond analytical model is proposed in this paper. The model is capable of reproducing the bond stress developed between the steel and concrete, in precast prestressed elements, during the entire process of prestressing force release. The bond stress developed in the transmission zone, where the bond stress is not constant, is also obtained. The steel and concrete stresses as well as the slip between both materials can be also estimated by means of the relation established in the model between these parameters and the bond stress. The model is validated with the results of a series of tests, considering different steel indentation depths and concrete covers and it is extended to evaluate the transmission length. This has been checked by comparing the transmission length predicted by the model and one measured experimentally in two series of tests.

An approach to a model of the visual cortex: disorders of vision

One of the most challenging problems that must be solved by any theoretical model purporting to explain the competence of the human brain for relational tasks is the one related with the analysis and representation of the internal structure in an extended spatial layout of múltiple objects. In this way, some of the problems are related with specific aims as how can we extract and represent spatial relationships among objects, how can we represent the movement of a selected object and so on. The main objective of this paper is the study of some plausible brain structures that can provide answers in these problems. Moreover, in order to achieve a more concrete knowledge, our study will be focused on the response of the retinal layers for optical information processing and how this information can be processed in the first cortex layers. The model to be reported is just a first trial and some major additions are needed to complete the whole vision process.

A model to develop a platform for personalised health applications

Antecedentes Europa vive una situación insostenible. Desde el 2008 se han reducido los recursos de los gobiernos a raíz de la crisis económica. El continente Europeo envejece con ritmo constante al punto que se prevé que en 2050 habrá sólo dos trabajadores por jubilado [54]. A esta situación se le añade el aumento de la incidencia de las enfermedades crónicas, relacionadas con el envejecimiento, cuyo coste puede alcanzar el 7% del PIB de un país [51]. Es necesario un cambio de paradigma. Una nueva manera de cuidar de la salud de las personas: sustentable, eficaz y preventiva más que curativa. Algunos estudios abogan por el cuidado personalizado de la salud (pHealth). En este modelo las prácticas médicas son adaptadas e individualizadas al paciente, desde la detección de los factores de riesgo hasta la personalización de los tratamientos basada en la respuesta del individuo [81]. El cuidado personalizado de la salud está asociado a menudo al uso de las tecnologías de la información y comunicación (TICs) que, con su desarrollo exponencial, ofrecen oportunidades interesantes para la mejora de la salud. El cambio de paradigma hacia el pHealth está lentamente ocurriendo, tanto en el ámbito de la investigación como en la industria, pero todavía no de manera significativa. Existen todavía muchas barreras relacionadas a la economía, a la política y la cultura. También existen barreras puramente tecnológicas, como la falta de sistemas de información interoperables [199]. A pesar de que los aspectos de interoperabilidad están evolucionando, todavía hace falta un diseño de referencia especialmente direccionado a la implementación y el despliegue en gran escala de sistemas basados en pHealth. La presente Tesis representa un intento de organizar la disciplina de la aplicación de las TICs al cuidado personalizado de la salud en un modelo de referencia, que permita la creación de plataformas de desarrollo de software para simplificar tareas comunes de desarrollo en este dominio. Preguntas de investigación RQ1 >Es posible definir un modelo, basado en técnicas de ingeniería del software, que represente el dominio del cuidado personalizado de la salud de una forma abstracta y representativa? RQ2 >Es posible construir una plataforma de desarrollo basada en este modelo? RQ3 >Esta plataforma ayuda a los desarrolladores a crear sistemas pHealth complejos e integrados? Métodos Para la descripción del modelo se adoptó el estándar ISO/IEC/IEEE 42010por ser lo suficientemente general y abstracto para el amplio enfoque de esta tesis [25]. El modelo está definido en varias partes: un modelo conceptual, expresado a través de mapas conceptuales que representan las partes interesadas (stakeholders), los artefactos y la información compartida; y escenarios y casos de uso para la descripción de sus funcionalidades. El modelo fue desarrollado de acuerdo a la información obtenida del análisis de la literatura, incluyendo 7 informes industriales y científicos, 9 estándares, 10 artículos en conferencias, 37 artículos en revistas, 25 páginas web y 5 libros. Basándose en el modelo se definieron los requisitos para la creación de la plataforma de desarrollo, enriquecidos por otros requisitos recolectados a través de una encuesta realizada a 11 ingenieros con experiencia en la rama. Para el desarrollo de la plataforma, se adoptó la metodología de integración continua [74] que permitió ejecutar tests automáticos en un servidor y también desplegar aplicaciones en una página web. En cuanto a la metodología utilizada para la validación se adoptó un marco para la formulación de teorías en la ingeniería del software [181]. Esto requiere el desarrollo de modelos y proposiciones que han de ser validados dentro de un ámbito de investigación definido, y que sirvan para guiar al investigador en la búsqueda de la evidencia necesaria para justificarla. La validación del modelo fue desarrollada mediante una encuesta online en tres rondas con un número creciente de invitados. El cuestionario fue enviado a 134 contactos y distribuido en algunos canales públicos como listas de correo y redes sociales. El objetivo era evaluar la legibilidad del modelo, su nivel de cobertura del dominio y su potencial utilidad en el diseño de sistemas derivados. El cuestionario incluía preguntas cuantitativas de tipo Likert y campos para recolección de comentarios. La plataforma de desarrollo fue validada en dos etapas. En la primera etapa se utilizó la plataforma en un experimento a pequeña escala, que consistió en una sesión de entrenamiento de 12 horas en la que 4 desarrolladores tuvieron que desarrollar algunos casos de uso y reunirse en un grupo focal para discutir su uso. La segunda etapa se realizó durante los tests de un proyecto en gran escala llamado HeartCycle [160]. En este proyecto un equipo de diseñadores y programadores desarrollaron tres aplicaciones en el campo de las enfermedades cardio-vasculares. Una de estas aplicaciones fue testeada en un ensayo clínico con pacientes reales. Al analizar el proyecto, el equipo de desarrollo se reunió en un grupo focal para identificar las ventajas y desventajas de la plataforma y su utilidad. Resultados Por lo que concierne el modelo que describe el dominio del pHealth, la parte conceptual incluye una descripción de los roles principales y las preocupaciones de los participantes, un modelo de los artefactos TIC que se usan comúnmente y un modelo para representar los datos típicos que son necesarios formalizar e intercambiar entre sistemas basados en pHealth. El modelo funcional incluye un conjunto de 18 escenarios, repartidos en: punto de vista de la persona asistida, punto de vista del cuidador, punto de vista del desarrollador, punto de vista de los proveedores de tecnologías y punto de vista de las autoridades; y un conjunto de 52 casos de uso repartidos en 6 categorías: actividades de la persona asistida, reacciones del sistema, actividades del cuidador, \engagement" del usuario, actividades del desarrollador y actividades de despliegue. Como resultado del cuestionario de validación del modelo, un total de 65 personas revisó el modelo proporcionando su nivel de acuerdo con las dimensiones evaluadas y un total de 248 comentarios sobre cómo mejorar el modelo. Los conocimientos de los participantes variaban desde la ingeniería del software (70%) hasta las especialidades médicas (15%), con declarado interés en eHealth (24%), mHealth (16%), Ambient Assisted Living (21%), medicina personalizada (5%), sistemas basados en pHealth (15%), informática médica (10%) e ingeniería biomédica (8%) con una media de 7.25_4.99 años de experiencia en estas áreas. Los resultados de la encuesta muestran que los expertos contactados consideran el modelo fácil de leer (media de 1.89_0.79 siendo 1 el valor más favorable y 5 el peor), suficientemente abstracto (1.99_0.88) y formal (2.13_0.77), con una cobertura suficiente del dominio (2.26_0.95), útil para describir el dominio (2.02_0.7) y para generar sistemas más específicos (2_0.75). Los expertos también reportan un interés parcial en utilizar el modelo en su trabajo (2.48_0.91). Gracias a sus comentarios, el modelo fue mejorado y enriquecido con conceptos que faltaban, aunque no se pudo demonstrar su mejora en las dimensiones evaluadas, dada la composición diferente de personas en las tres rondas de evaluación. Desde el modelo, se generó una plataforma de desarrollo llamada \pHealth Patient Platform (pHPP)". La plataforma desarrollada incluye librerías, herramientas de programación y desarrollo, un tutorial y una aplicación de ejemplo. Se definieron cuatro módulos principales de la arquitectura: el Data Collection Engine, que permite abstraer las fuentes de datos como sensores o servicios externos, mapeando los datos a bases de datos u ontologías, y permitiendo interacción basada en eventos; el GUI Engine, que abstrae la interfaz de usuario en un modelo de interacción basado en mensajes; y el Rule Engine, que proporciona a los desarrolladores un medio simple para programar la lógica de la aplicación en forma de reglas \if-then". Después de que la plataforma pHPP fue utilizada durante 5 años en el proyecto HeartCycle, 5 desarrolladores fueron reunidos en un grupo de discusión para analizar y evaluar la plataforma. De estas evaluaciones se concluye que la plataforma fue diseñada para encajar las necesidades de los ingenieros que trabajan en la rama, permitiendo la separación de problemas entre las distintas especialidades, y simplificando algunas tareas de desarrollo como el manejo de datos y la interacción asíncrona. A pesar de ello, se encontraron algunos defectos a causa de la inmadurez de algunas tecnologías empleadas, y la ausencia de algunas herramientas específicas para el dominio como el procesado de datos o algunos protocolos de comunicación relacionados con la salud. Dentro del proyecto HeartCycle la plataforma fue utilizada para el desarrollo de la aplicación \Guided Exercise", un sistema TIC para la rehabilitación de pacientes que han sufrido un infarto del miocardio. El sistema fue testeado en un ensayo clínico randomizado en el cual a 55 pacientes se les dio el sistema para su uso por 21 semanas. De los resultados técnicos del ensayo se puede concluir que, a pesar de algunos errores menores prontamente corregidos durante el estudio, la plataforma es estable y fiable. Conclusiones La investigación llevada a cabo en esta Tesis y los resultados obtenidos proporcionan las respuestas a las tres preguntas de investigación que motivaron este trabajo: RQ1 Se ha desarrollado un modelo para representar el dominio de los sistemas personalizados de salud. La evaluación hecha por los expertos de la rama concluye que el modelo representa el dominio con precisión y con un balance apropiado entre abstracción y detalle. RQ2 Se ha desarrollado, con éxito, una plataforma de desarrollo basada en el modelo. RQ3 Se ha demostrado que la plataforma es capaz de ayudar a los desarrolladores en la creación de software pHealth complejos. Las ventajas de la plataforma han sido demostradas en el ámbito de un proyecto de gran escala, aunque el enfoque genérico adoptado indica que la plataforma podría ofrecer beneficios también en otros contextos. Los resultados de estas evaluaciones ofrecen indicios de que, ambos, el modelo y la plataforma serán buenos candidatos para poderse convertir en una referencia para futuros desarrollos de sistemas pHealth. ABSTRACT Background Europe is living in an unsustainable situation. The economic crisis has been reducing governments' economic resources since 2008 and threatening social and health systems, while the proportion of older people in the European population continues to increase so that it is foreseen that in 2050 there will be only two workers per retiree [54]. To this situation it should be added the rise, strongly related to age, of chronic diseases the burden of which has been estimated to be up to the 7% of a country's gross domestic product [51]. There is a need for a paradigm shift, the need for a new way of caring for people's health, shifting the focus from curing conditions that have arisen to a sustainable and effective approach with the emphasis on prevention. Some advocate the adoption of personalised health care (pHealth), a model where medical practices are tailored to the patient's unique life, from the detection of risk factors to the customization of treatments based on each individual's response [81]. Personalised health is often associated to the use of Information and Communications Technology (ICT), that, with its exponential development, offers interesting opportunities for improving healthcare. The shift towards pHealth is slowly taking place, both in research and in industry, but the change is not significant yet. Many barriers still exist related to economy, politics and culture, while others are purely technological, like the lack of interoperable information systems [199]. Though interoperability aspects are evolving, there is still the need of a reference design, especially tackling implementation and large scale deployment of pHealth systems. This thesis contributes to organizing the subject of ICT systems for personalised health into a reference model that allows for the creation of software development platforms to ease common development issues in the domain. Research questions RQ1 Is it possible to define a model, based on software engineering techniques, for representing the personalised health domain in an abstract and representative way? RQ2 Is it possible to build a development platform based on this model? RQ3 Does the development platform help developers create complex integrated pHealth systems? Methods As method for describing the model, the ISO/IEC/IEEE 42010 framework [25] is adopted for its generality and high level of abstraction. The model is specified in different parts: a conceptual model, which makes use of concept maps, for representing stakeholders, artefacts and shared information, and in scenarios and use cases for the representation of the functionalities of pHealth systems. The model was derived from literature analysis, including 7 industrial and scientific reports, 9 electronic standards, 10 conference proceedings papers, 37 journal papers, 25 websites and 5 books. Based on the reference model, requirements were drawn for building the development platform enriched with a set of requirements gathered in a survey run among 11 experienced engineers. For developing the platform, the continuous integration methodology [74] was adopted which allowed to perform automatic tests on a server and also to deploy packaged releases on a web site. As a validation methodology, a theory building framework for SW engineering was adopted from [181]. The framework, chosen as a guide to find evidence for justifying the research questions, imposed the creation of theories based on models and propositions to be validated within a scope. The validation of the model was conducted as an on-line survey in three validation rounds, encompassing a growing number of participants. The survey was submitted to 134 experts of the field and on some public channels like relevant mailing lists and social networks. Its objective was to assess the model's readability, its level of coverage of the domain and its potential usefulness in the design of actual, derived systems. The questionnaires included quantitative Likert scale questions and free text inputs for comments. The development platform was validated in two scopes. As a small-scale experiment, the platform was used in a 12 hours training session where 4 developers had to perform an exercise consisting in developing a set of typical pHealth use cases At the end of the session, a focus group was held to identify benefits and drawbacks of the platform. The second validation was held as a test-case study in a large scale research project called HeartCycle the aim of which was to develop a closed-loop disease management system for heart failure and coronary heart disease patients [160]. During this project three applications were developed by a team of programmers and designers. One of these applications was tested in a clinical trial with actual patients. At the end of the project, the team was interviewed in a focus group to assess the role the platform had within the project. Results For what regards the model that describes the pHealth domain, its conceptual part includes a description of the main roles and concerns of pHealth stakeholders, a model of the ICT artefacts that are commonly adopted and a model representing the typical data that need to be formalized among pHealth systems. The functional model includes a set of 18 scenarios, divided into assisted person's view, caregiver's view, developer's view, technology and services providers' view and authority's view, and a set of 52 Use Cases grouped in 6 categories: assisted person's activities, system reactions, caregiver's activities, user engagement, developer's activities and deployer's activities. For what concerns the validation of the model, a total of 65 people participated in the online survey providing their level of agreement in all the assessed dimensions and a total of 248 comments on how to improve and complete the model. Participants' background spanned from engineering and software development (70%) to medical specialities (15%), with declared interest in the fields of eHealth (24%), mHealth (16%), Ambient Assisted Living (21%), Personalized Medicine (5%), Personal Health Systems (15%), Medical Informatics (10%) and Biomedical Engineering (8%) with an average of 7.25_4.99 years of experience in these fields. From the analysis of the answers it is possible to observe that the contacted experts considered the model easily readable (average of 1.89_0.79 being 1 the most favourable scoring and 5 the worst), sufficiently abstract (1.99_0.88) and formal (2.13_0.77) for its purpose, with a sufficient coverage of the domain (2.26_0.95), useful for describing the domain (2.02_0.7) and for generating more specific systems (2_0.75) and they reported a partial interest in using the model in their job (2.48_0.91). Thanks to their comments, the model was improved and enriched with concepts that were missing at the beginning, nonetheless it was not possible to prove an improvement among the iterations, due to the diversity of the participants in the three rounds. From the model, a development platform for the pHealth domain was generated called pHealth Patient Platform (pHPP). The platform includes a set of libraries, programming and deployment tools, a tutorial and a sample application. The main four modules of the architecture are: the Data Collection Engine, which allows abstracting sources of information like sensors or external services, mapping data to databases and ontologies, and allowing event-based interaction and filtering, the GUI Engine, which abstracts the user interface in a message-like interaction model, the Workow Engine, which allows programming the application's user interaction ows with graphical workows, and the Rule Engine, which gives developers a simple means for programming the application's logic in the form of \if-then" rules. After the 5 years experience of HeartCycle, partially programmed with pHPP, 5 developers were joined in a focus group to discuss the advantages and drawbacks of the platform. The view that emerged from the training course and the focus group was that the platform is well-suited to the needs of the engineers working in the field, it allowed the separation of concerns among the different specialities and it simplified some common development tasks like data management and asynchronous interaction. Nevertheless, some deficiencies were pointed out in terms of a lack of maturity of some technological choices, and for the absence of some domain-specific tools, e.g. for data processing or for health-related communication protocols. Within HeartCycle, the platform was used to develop part of the Guided Exercise system, a composition of ICT tools for the physical rehabilitation of patients who suffered from myocardial infarction. The system developed using the platform was tested in a randomized controlled clinical trial, in which 55 patients used the system for 21 weeks. The technical results of this trial showed that the system was stable and reliable. Some minor bugs were detected, but these were promptly corrected using the platform. This shows that the platform, as well as facilitating the development task, can be successfully used to produce reliable software. Conclusions The research work carried out in developing this thesis provides responses to the three three research questions that were the motivation for the work. RQ1 A model was developed representing the domain of personalised health systems, and the assessment of experts in the field was that it represents the domain accurately, with an appropriate balance between abstraction and detail. RQ2 A development platform based on the model was successfully developed. RQ3 The platform has been shown to assist developers create complex pHealth software. This was demonstrated within the scope of one large-scale project, but the generic approach adopted provides indications that it would offer benefits more widely. The results of these evaluations provide indications that both the model and the platform are good candidates for being a reference for future pHealth developments.

How much energy will your NGN consume? A model for energy consumption in next generation access networks: The case of Spain

The contribution to global energy consumption of the information and communications technology (ICT) sector has increased considerably in the last decade, along with its growing relevance to the overall economy. This trend will continue due to the seemingly ever greater use of these technologies, with broadband data traffic generated by the usage of telecommunication networks as a primary component. In fact, in response to user demand, the telecommunications industry is initiating the deployment of next generation networks (NGNs). However, energy consumption is mostly absent from the debate on these deployments, in spite of the potential impact on both expenses and sustainability. In addition, consumers are unaware of the energy impact of their choices in ultra-broadband services. This paper focuses on forecasting energy consumption in the access part of NGNs by modelling the combined effect of the deployment of two different ultra-broadband technologies (FTTH-GPON and LTE), the evolution of traffic per user, and the energy consumption in each of the networks and user devices. Conclusions are presented on the levels of energy consumption, their cost and the impact of different network design parameters. The effect of technological developments, techno-economic and policy decisions on energy consumption is highlighted. On the consumer side, practical figures and comparisons across technologies are provided. Although the paper focuses on Spain, the analysis can be extended to similar countries.