Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados

Water regimes in the Brazilian Cerrados are sensitive to climatological disturbances and human intervention. The risk that critical water-table levels are exceeded over long periods of time can be estimated by applying stochastic methods in modeling the dynamic relationship between water levels and driving forces such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In this study, a transfer function-noise model, the so called PIRFICT-model, is applied to estimate the dynamic relationship between water-table depth and precipitation surplus/deficit in a watershed with a groundwater monitoring scheme in the Brazilian Cerrados. Critical limits were defined for a period in the Cerrados agricultural calendar, the end of the rainy season, when extremely shallow levels (< 0.5-m depth) can pose a risk to plant health and machinery before harvesting. By simulating time-series models, the risk of exceeding critical thresholds during a continuous period of time (e.g. 10 days) is described by probability levels. These simulated probabilities were interpolated spatially using universal kriging, incorporating information related to the drainage basin from a digital elevation model. The resulting map reduced model uncertainty. Three areas were defined as presenting potential risk at the end of the rainy season. These areas deserve attention with respect to water-management and land-use planning.

Mapeamento de áreas de risco à saúde pública por meio de métodos geoestatísticos

Este trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar uma aplicação de métodos geoestatísticos na elaboração de mapas de risco à saúde pública, por meio da identificação de áreas com maior concentração de metais pesados. Foi escolhido o elemento chumbo (Pb), resultante do transporte aéreo ou do carregamento das partículas causado pela lixiviação do solo, em uma região com grande concentração urbana e industrial na Baixada Santista, São Paulo, Brasil. Elaboraram-se mapas das distribuições espaciais desse elemento por intermédio da krigagem ordinária; posteriormente, utilizando-se a krigagem indicativa, identificaram-se as áreas com valores de contaminação do solo superiores aos níveis máximos aceitáveis pelo órgão de controle ambiental do Estado de São Paulo, originando um mapeamento com áreas com maior probabilidade de risco à saúde pública. Os mapas resultantes mostraram-se ferramentas promissoras para auxiliar a tomada de decisão quanto a questões de políticas públicas relacionadas à saúde e ao planejamento ambiental.

Construcción de mapas de combustible forestal para detectar el peligro de incendio en un bosque de pino-encino

Como herramienta para la identificación de áreas con peligro de incendio se pueden generar mapas a partir de variables que influyen en el comportamiento de estos fenómenos. Los combustibles forestales tienen una influencia directa en el desarrollo y establecimiento de los incendios y son el único componente que puede ser modificado por el hombre. Considerando esto, el presente trabajo se enfocó en la generación de un mapa basado en inventarios de combustibles forestales. La realización de estos inventarios se llevó a cabo mediante la técnica conocida como intersecciones planeares, la información recaudada en campo se aplicó el método Kriging para generar un mapa con la carga de combustible total. Los resultados para el inventario de combustibles se estimaron en un promedio de 37.57 Mg/ha-1. El mapa generado permite identificar áreas con mayor peligro de incendio dentro del área de estudio. La generación de este tipo de información ayuda a la toma de decisiones para la prevención y combate de incendios forestales.

Métodos de interpolación multivariable

Para el estudio de la interpolación multidimensional es recomendable tener conocimientos previos sobre la interpolación en una dimensión para poder comprender con mayor facilidad la interpolación en más dimensiones. La interpolación multivariable o la interpolación espacial es la interpolación sobre funciones de más de una variable, nuestro estudio está enfocado en la interpolación en dos dimensiones, por lo cual se estudiara el método del vecino más cercano, el método bilineal, y el método bicúbico. Además se abordará de manera superficial el estudio de otros métodos como lo son: Las funciones bivariadas, el método de la distancia inversa, el método de Barnes, método de Kriging, entre otros. También se realiza la comparación entre algunos de los métodos mencionados anteriormente, utilizando los programas octave/matlab, para así determinar que método es mejor para interpolar.

Álgebra de mapas de atributos de solos para estimativa da aptidão agrícola das terras.

The land suitability evaluation is used to establish land zonings for agriculture activities. Geographic information systems (GIS) are useful for integrating different attributes necessaries to define apt and not apt lands. The present study had as main objective to describe procedures to define land suitability using GIS tools, soils maps and data soils profiles data, emphasizing procedures to define soil atributes. The area studied was the watershed of Córrego Espraiado, Ribeirão Preto-SP, located on the recharging area of the Guarani Aquifer, with approximately 4,130 ha and predominance of sugar cane culture. The database project was developed using the GIS Idrisi 32. The land suitability evaluation was done considering the intensive agricultural production system predominant in the watershed, adjusted for the vulnerability of the areas of recharge and for the methodology of GIS tools. Numerical terrain models (NTM) had been constructed for cation exchange capacity, basis saturation, clay content and silt+clay content using kriging (geostatistical interpolator), and for aluminum saturation using the inverse-square-distance. Boolean operations for handling geographic fields (thematic maps and NTM) to produce information plans are described and a land suitability map obtained by GIS tools is presented, indicating that 85% of watershed lands are apt to annual cultures.

Environmental quality of life index incorporationg MCA & GIS : case study Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal

The study of Quality of Life (Qol) has been conducted on various scales throughout the years with focus on assessing overall quality of living amongst citizens. The main focus in these studies have been on economic factors, with the purpose of creating a Quality of Life Index (QLI).When it comes down to narrowing the focus to the environment and factors like Urban Green Spaces (UGS) and air quality the topic gets more focused on pointing out how each alternative meets this certain criteria. With the benefits of UGS and a healthy environment in focus a new Environmental Quality of Life Index (EQLI) will be proposed by incorporating Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Working with MCA on complex environmental problems and incorporating it with GIS is a challenging but rewarding task, and has proven to be an efficient approach among environmental scientists. Background information on three MCA methods will be shown: Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Regime Analysis and PROMETHEE. A survey based on a previous study conducted on the status of UGS within European cities was sent to 18 municipalities in the study area. The survey consists of evaluating the current status of UGS as well as planning and management of UGS with in municipalities for the purpose of getting criteria material for the selected MCA method. The current situation of UGS is assessed with use of GIS software and change detection is done on a 10 year period using NDVI index for comparison purposes to one of the criteria in the MCA. To add to the criteria, interpolation of nitrogen dioxide levels was performed with ordinary kriging and the results transformed into indicator values. The final outcome is an EQLI map with indicators of environmentally attractive municipalities with ranking based on predefinedMCA criteria using PROMETHEE I pairwise comparison and PROMETHEE II complete ranking of alternatives. The proposed methodology is applied to Lisbon’s Metropolitan Area, Portugal.

Simulação computacional de medidas estereológicas em estruturas de metal duro (WC-Co)

This work focuses on the creation and applications of a dynamic simulation software in order to study the hard metal structure (WC-Co). The technological ground used to increase the GPU hardware capacity was Geforce 9600 GT along with the PhysX chip created to make games more realistic. The software simulates the three-dimensional carbide structure to the shape of a cubic box where tungsten carbide (WC) are modeled as triangular prisms and truncated triangular prisms. The program was proven effective regarding checking testes, ranging from calculations of parameter measures such as the capacity to increase the number of particles simulated dynamically. It was possible to make an investigation of both the mean parameters and distributions stereological parameters used to characterize the carbide structure through cutting plans. Grounded on the cutting plans concerning the analyzed structures, we have investigated the linear intercepts, the intercepts to the area, and the perimeter section of the intercepted grains as well as the binder phase to the structure by calculating the mean value and distribution of the free path. As literature shows almost consensually that the distribution of the linear intercepts is lognormal, this suggests that the grain distribution is also lognormal. Thus, a routine was developed regarding the program which made possible a more detailed research on this issue. We have observed that it is possible, under certain values for the parameters which define the shape and size of the Prismatic grain to find out the distribution to the linear intercepts that approach the lognormal shape. Regarding a number of developed simulations, we have observed that the distribution curves of the linear and area intercepts as well as the perimeter section are consistent with studies on static computer simulation to these parameters.

Hacia la conformación de un modelo de distrribución de usos y asignación de características de ocupación a partir de análisis Geo estadístico: caso estudio Av. Paseo de los Cañarís de la ciudad de Cuenca año 2015

La presente tesis tiene por objeto generar estrategias para la distribución de usos y asignación de características de ocupación de suelo, este proceso se apoya en análisis geo estadísticos para obtener resultados más ajustados a la realidad y de esta manera comprender la dinámica de los espacios urbanos, las formas de ocupación del espacio por parte de la población, así también las dinámicas que generan ciertos elementos y el impacto en su contexto inmediato. Este estudio inicia con el desarrollo del marco teórico que aborda definiciones e investigaciones referentes a las dinámicas que los usos presentan en una ciudad.Posteriormente se analizan los elementos urbanos relevantes del área de estudio, iniciando con la delimitación y sectorización, los equipamientos, la vialidad, el transporte, las características de ocupación y la normativa vigente; mediante estos diagnósticos se llega a identificar como está conformada el área de estudio.Partiendo de estos diagnósticos se procede a realizar el estudio y análisis sistemático de los usos y la ocupación de suelo urbano, mediante la aplicación de herramientas geo estadísticas como el Kriging y MORAN-LISA. Los resultados obtenidos se representan en un corema, con la finalidad de crear un modelo espacial de análisis, apoyado también de un análisis de diversidad.Finalmente estos resultados generan estrategias apoyadas en datos estadísticos.

Climate change and irrigation water requirement at Jaguaribe river basin, semi-arid northeast of Brazil.

Summary: Climate change has a potential to impact rainfall, temperature and air humidity, which have relation to plant evapotranspiration and crop water requirement. The purpose of this research is to assess climate change impacts on irrigation water demand, based on future scenarios derived from the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), using boundary conditions of the HadCM3 submitted to a dynamic downscaling nested to the Hadley Centre regional circulation model HadRM3P. Monthly time series for average temperature and rainfall were generated for 1961-90 (baseline) and the future (2040). The reference evapotranspiration was estimated using monthly average temperature. Projected climate change impact on irrigation water demand demonstrated to be a result of evapotranspiration and rainfall trend. Impacts were mapped over the target region by using geostatistical methods. An increase of the average crop water needs was estimated to be 18.7% and 22.2% higher for 2040 A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Objective ? To analyze the climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements, using downscaling techniques of a climate change model, at the river basin scale. Method: The study area was delimited between 4º39?30? and 5º40?00? South and 37º35?30? and 38º27?00? West. The crop pattern in the target area was characterized, regarding type of irrigated crops, respective areas and cropping schedules, as well as the area and type of irrigation systems adopted. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) system (Jones et al., 2004) was used for generating climate predictions for the target area, using the boundary conditions of the Hadley Centre model HadCM3 (Johns et al., 2003). The considered time scale of interest for climate change impacts evaluation was the year of 2040, representing the period of 2025 to 2055. The output data from the climate model was interpolated, considering latitude/longitude, by applying ordinary kriging tools available at a Geographic Information System, in order to produce thematic maps.

Spatio-temporal modeling of data imputation for daily rainfall series in homogeneous zones.

Spatio-temporal modelling is an area of increasing importance in which models and methods have often been developed to deal with specific applications. In this study, a spatio-temporal model was used to estimate daily rainfall data. Rainfall records from several weather stations, obtained from the Agritempo system for two climatic homogeneous zones, were used. Rainfall values obtained for two fixed dates (January 1 and May 1, 2012) using the spatio-temporal model were compared with the geostatisticals techniques of ordinary kriging and ordinary cokriging with altitude as auxiliary variable. The spatio-temporal model was more than 17% better at producing estimates of daily precipitation compared to kriging and cokriging in the first zone and more than 18% in the second zone. The spatio-temporal model proved to be a versatile technique, adapting to different seasons and dates.

Design Optimization of Nozzle Shapes for Maximum Uniformity of Exit Flow

The objective of this study is to identify the optimal designs of converging-diverging supersonic and hypersonic nozzles that perform at maximum uniformity of thermodynamic and flow-field properties with respect to their average values at the nozzle exit. Since this is a multi-objective design optimization problem, the design variables used are parameters defining the shape of the nozzle. This work presents how variation of such parameters can influence the nozzle exit flow non-uniformities. A Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software package, ANSYS FLUENT, was used to simulate the compressible, viscous gas flow-field in forty nozzle shapes, including the heat transfer analysis. The results of two turbulence models, k-e and k-ω, were computed and compared. With the analysis results obtained, the Response Surface Methodology (RSM) was applied for the purpose of performing a multi-objective optimization. The optimization was performed with ModeFrontier software package using Kriging and Radial Basis Functions (RBF) response surfaces. Final Pareto optimal nozzle shapes were then analyzed with ANSYS FLUENT to confirm the accuracy of the optimization process.

Trends in Water Quality within the Broward County Portion of the Biscayne Aquifer

Continuous and reliable monitoring of contaminants in drinking water, which adversely affect human health, is the main goal of the Broward County Well Field Protection Program. In this study the individual monitoring station locations were used in a yearly and quarterly spatiotemporal Ordinary Kriging interpolation to create a raster network of contaminant detections. In the final analysis, the raster spatiotemporal nitrate concentration trends were overlaid with a pollution vulnerability index to determine if the concentrations are influenced by a set of independent variables. The pollution vulnerability factors are depth to water, recharge, aquifer media, soil, impact to vadose zone, and conductivity. The creation of the nitrate raster dataset had an average RMS Standardized error close to 1 at 0.98. The greatest frequency of detections and the highest concentrations are found in the months of April, May, June, July, August, and September. An average of 76.4% of the nitrate intersected with cells of the pollution vulnerability index over 100.

Comparative fixed gear studies in the Cyclades (Aegean Sea): size selectivity of small-hook longlines and monofilament gill nets

Fishing trials with monofilament gill nets and longlines using small hooks were carried out at the same fishing grounds in Cyclades (Aegean Sea) over 1 year. Four sizes of MUSTAD brand, round bent, flatted sea hooks (Quality 2316 DT, numbers 15, 13, 12 and 11) and four mesh sizes of 22, 24, 26 and 28 turn nominal bar length monofilament gill nets were used. Significant differences in the catch size frequency distributions of the two gears were found for four out of five of the most important species caught by both the gears (Diplodus annularis, Diplodus vulgaris, Pagellus erythrinus, Scorpaena porcus and Serranus cabrilla), with longlines catching larger fish and a wider size range than gill nets. Whereas longline catch size frequency distributions for most species for the different hook sizes were generally highly overlapped, suggesting little or no differences in size selectivity, gill net catch size frequency distributions clearly showed size selection, with larger mesh sizes catching larger fish. A variety of models were fitted to the gill net data, with the lognormal providing the best fit in most cases. A maximum likelihood method was also used to estimate the parameters of the logistic model for the longline data. Because of the highly overlapped longline catch size frequency distributions parameters could only be estimated for two species. This study shows that the two static gears have different impacts in terms of size selection. This information will be useful for the more effective management of these small-scale, multi-species and multi-gear fisheries. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Uma caracterização dos imigrantes no distrito de Évora

Uma vez que existe uma grande necessidade de se obter um maior conhecimento das comunidades imigrantes residentes no Distrito, este trabalho tem como principal objectivo caracterizar a população de imigrantes comunitários residentes no distrito de Évora. Em particular, procuramos analisar os casamentos realizados não só entre os não nacionais e portugueses, bem como entre os nãos nacionais entre si. Consideramos os 354 imigrantes que constituem os imigrantes comunitários inscritos legalmente nos Serviços Estrangeiros e Fronteiras de Évora entre 2006 a 2009. Por outro lado, analisamos, para o mesmo período, os casamentos dos imigrantes que casaram com os portugueses num total de 165 indivíduos. Começamos por levar a efeito uma investigação básica de tipo descritivo para uma caracterização dos imigrantes relativamente a diferentes variáveis e investigamos algumas associações entre elas via tabelas de contingência. Refira-se que a maioria dos imigrantes é do sexo feminino, sendo a nacionalidade mais representativa a brasileira. Com base no modelo de regressão de Cox identificamos factores de risco e diferentes perfis associados à rotura do casamento. Mostramos que há evidência estatística para considerar que um menor nível de escolaridade, o pertencer a um país da União Europeia e o ter entrado à procura de trabalho são níveis de factores que aumentam o risco de rotura do casamento. Analisam-se, ainda, de uma forma crítica, a abordagem paramétrica, procurando modelar os dados através dos modelos Exponencial, Weibull, Lognormal e Log-logístico. ABSTRACT: There is a need to obtain a greater understanding of immigrant communities in the district; this work has as main objective to characterize the population of immigrant community residing in the district of Évora. ln particular, we analyze not only marriages between Portuguese and non-nationals, as well as among non-nationals among themselves. We consider the 354 immigrants who are legally registered immigrants in the Community Service of Foreigners and Frontiers of Évora, from 2006 to 2009. Moreover, we analyze, for the same period, the marriages of immigrants who intermarried with the Portuguese for a total of 165 individuals. We start by carrying out a basic descriptive research in order to characterize the immigrants in relation to several variables and investigated some associations between them by contingency tables. It should be noted that most immigrants are women, and the more representative the Brazilian nationality. Based on the Cox regression model, were possible to identify risk factors and identify profiles of high and low risk associated with the rupture of the marriage. We show that there is statistical evidence to conclude that a less educated levels, belonging to a country inside the European Union and have gone looking for work are factors that increase the risk of rupture of the marriage. The parametric approach is analyzed also, in a critical way, seeking to model the data using exponential, Weibull, Lognormal and Log-logistic.

CFA88: UN PROGRAMA VERSATIL PARA EL ANALISIS DE EVENTOS HIDROMETEOROLOGICOS EXTREMOS. I TEORIA

El presente trabajo describe los diferentes componentes del programa CFA88 (Consolidated Frequency Analysis Package, versión 1). El programa le permite al usuario:1) ajustar cinco distribuciones de frecuencia( valor generalizado extremo, lognormal de tres parámetros, log Pearson tipo III, Wakeby y Weibull); 2) evaluar a través de pruebas no paramétricas los supuestos asociados al análisis de frecuencia, a saber: independencia, homogeneidad, aleatoriedad y tendencia en el tiempo;3) detectar valores <<fuera de lo común>> (low and high outliers); y 4) analizar series hidrometeorologicas con ceros, información histórica y eventos fuera de lo común.