Is the Market Classification of Risk Always Efficient? - Evidence from German Third Party Motor Insurance

This paper studies the empirical effects of risk classification in the mandatory third-party motor insurance of Germany following the European Union’s directive to de-regulate insurance tariffs of 1994. We find evidence that inefficient risk categories had been selected while potentially efficient information was dismissed. Risk classification did generally not improve the efficiency of contracting or the composition of insureds in this market. These findings are partly explained by the continuing existence of institutional restraints in this market such as compulsory fixed coverage and unitary owner insurance.

Risk factors for death and unwanted early slaughter in Swiss veal calves kept at a specific animal welfare standard

Calf losses (CL, mortality and unwanted early slaughter) in veal production are of great economic importance and an indicator of welfare. The objective of the present study was to evaluate CL and the causes of death on farms with a specific animal welfare standard (SAW) which exceeds the Swiss statutory regulations. Risk factors for CL were identified based on information about management, housing, feeding, and medication. In total, 74 production cohorts (2783 calves) of 15 farms were investigated. CL was 3.6%, the main causes of death were digestive disorders (52%), followed by respiratory diseases (28%). Factors significantly associated with an increased risk for CL were a higher number of individual daily doses of antibiotics (DDA), insufficient wind deflection in winter, and male gender. For administration of antibiotics to all calves of the cohort, a DDA of 14-21 was associated with a decreased risk for CL compared to a DDA of 7-13 days.

Efficiency of risk-based vs . random sampling for the monitoring of tetracycline residues in slaughtered calves in Switzerland

In all European Union countries, chemical residues are required to be routinely monitored in meat. Good farming and veterinary practice can prevent the contamination of meat with pharmaceutical substances, resulting in a low detection of drug residues through random sampling. An alternative approach is to target-monitor farms suspected of treating their animals with antimicrobials. The objective of this project was to assess, using a stochastic model, the efficiency of these two sampling strategies. The model integrated data on Swiss livestock as well as expert opinion and results from studies conducted in Switzerland. Risk-based sampling showed an increase in detection efficiency of up to 100% depending on the prevalence of contaminated herds. Sensitivity analysis of this model showed the importance of the accuracy of prior assumptions for conducting risk-based sampling. The resources gained by changing from random to risk-based sampling should be transferred to improving the quality of prior information.

Surveillance of bovine tuberculosis and risk estimation of a future reservoir formation in wildlife in Switzerland and Liechtenstein.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) caused by Mycobacterium bovis or M. caprae has recently (re-) emerged in livestock and wildlife in all countries bordering Switzerland (CH) and the Principality of Liechtenstein (FL). Comprehensive data for Swiss and Liechtenstein wildlife are not available so far, although two native species, wild boar (Sus scrofa) and red deer (Cervus elaphus elaphus), act as bTB reservoirs elsewhere in continental Europe. Our aims were (1) to assess the occurrence of bTB in these wild ungulates in CH/FL and to reinforce scanning surveillance in all wild mammals; (2) to evaluate the risk of a future bTB reservoir formation in wild boar and red deer in CH/FL. Tissue samples collected from 2009 to 2011 from 434 hunted red deer and wild boar and from eight diseased ungulates with tuberculosis-like lesions were tested by direct real-time PCR and culture to detect mycobacteria of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC). Identification of suspicious colonies was attempted by real-time PCR, genotyping and spoligotyping. Information on risk factors for bTB maintenance within wildlife populations was retrieved from the literature and the situation regarding identified factors was assessed for our study areas. Mycobacteria of the MTBC were detected in six out of 165 wild boar (3.6%; 95% CI: 1.4-7.8) but none of the 269 red deer (0%; 0-1.4). M. microti was identified in two MTBC-positive wild boar, while species identification remained unsuccessful in four cases. Main risk factors for bTB maintenance worldwide, including different causes of aggregation often resulting from intensive wildlife management, are largely absent in CH and FL. In conclusion, M. bovis and M. caprae were not detected but we report for the first time MTBC mycobacteria in Swiss wild boar. Present conditions seem unfavorable for a reservoir emergence, nevertheless increasing population numbers of wild ungulates and offal consumption may represent a risk.

Contribution of Genetic Background, Traditional Risk Factors, and HIV-Related Factors to Coronary Artery Disease Events in HIV-Positive Persons

Background Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have increased rates of coronary artery disease (CAD). The relative contribution of genetic background, HIV-related factors, antiretroviral medications, and traditional risk factors to CAD has not been fully evaluated in the setting of HIV infection. Methods In the general population, 23 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were shown to be associated with CAD through genome-wide association analysis. Using the Metabochip, we genotyped 1875 HIV-positive, white individuals enrolled in 24 HIV observational studies, including 571 participants with a first CAD event during the 9-year study period and 1304 controls matched on sex and cohort. Results A genetic risk score built from 23 CAD-associated SNPs contributed significantly to CAD (P = 2.9×10−4). In the final multivariable model, participants with an unfavorable genetic background (top genetic score quartile) had a CAD odds ratio (OR) of 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05–2.04). This effect was similar to hypertension (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06–1.73), hypercholesterolemia (OR = 1.51; 95% CI, 1.16–1.96), diabetes (OR = 1.66; 95% CI, 1.10–2.49), ≥1 year lopinavir exposure (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06–1.73), and current abacavir treatment (OR = 1.56; 95% CI, 1.17–2.07). The effect of the genetic risk score was additive to the effect of nongenetic CAD risk factors, and did not change after adjustment for family history of CAD. Conclusions In the setting of HIV infection, the effect of an unfavorable genetic background was similar to traditional CAD risk factors and certain adverse antiretroviral exposures. Genetic testing may provide prognostic information complementary to family history of CAD.

Risk of Cardiovascular Events and Blood Pressure Control in Hypertensive HIV-Infected Patients: HIV Cohort Study (SHCS)

Background: Prevalence of hypertension in HIV infection is high, and information on blood pressure control in HIV-infected individuals is insufficient. We modeled blood pressure over time and the risk of cardiovascular events in hypertensive HIV-infected individuals. Methods: All patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with confirmed hypertension (systolic or diastolic blood pressure above 139 or 89 mm Hg on 2 consecutive visits and presence of at least 1 additional cardiovascular risk factor) between April 1, 2000 and March 31, 2011 were included. Patients with previous cardiovascular events, already on antihypertensive drugs, and pregnant women were excluded. Change in blood pressure over time was modeled using linear mixed models with repeated measurement. Results: Hypertension was diagnosed in 2595 of 10,361 eligible patients. Of those, 869 initiated antihypertensive treatment. For patients treated for hypertension, we found a mean (95% confidence interval) decrease in systolic and diastolic blood pressure of −0.82 (−1.06 to −0.58) mm Hg and −0.89 (−1.05 to −0.73) mm Hg/yr, respectively. Factors associated with a decline in systolic blood pressure were baseline blood pressure, presence of chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular events, and the typical risk factors for cardiovascular disease. In patients with hypertension, increase in systolic blood pressure [(hazard ratio 1.18 (1.06 to 1.32) per 10 mm Hg increase], total cholesterol, smoking, age, and cumulative exposure to protease inhibitor–based and triple nucleoside regimens were associated with cardiovascular events. Conclusions: Insufficient control of hypertension was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events indicating the need for improved management of hypertension in HIV-infected individuals.

Evaluation of a novel photography-based home assessment protocol for identification of environmental risk factors for falls in elderly persons

PRINCIPLES To evaluate the validity and feasibility of a novel photography-based home assessment (PhoHA) protocol, as a possible substitute for on-site home assessment (OsHA). METHODS A total of 20 patients aged ≥65 years who were hospitalised in a rehabilitation centre for musculoskeletal disorders affecting mobility participated in this prospective validation study. For PhoHA, occupational therapists rated photographs and measurements of patients' homes provided by patients' confidants. For OsHA, occupational therapists conducted a conventional home visit. RESULTS Information obtained by PhoHA was 79.1% complete (1,120 environmental factors identified by PhoHA vs 1416 by OsHA). Of the 1,120 factors, 749 had dichotomous (potential hazards) and 371 continuous scores (measurements with tape measure). Validity of PhoHA to potential hazards was good (sensitivity 78.9%, specificity 84.9%), except for two subdomains (pathways, slippery surfaces). Pearson's correlation coefficient for the validity of measurements was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI 0.80-0.92, p <0.001). Agreement between methods was 0.52 (95%CI 0.34-0.67, p <0.001, Cohen's kappa coefficient) for dichotomous and 0.86 (95%CI 0.79-0.91, p <0.001, intraclass correlation coefficient) for continuous scores. Costs of PhoHA were 53.0% lower than those of OsHA (p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS PhoHA has good concurrent validity for environmental assessment if instructions for confidants are improved. PhoHA is potentially a cost-effective method for environmental assessment.

Mutual Information for Testing Gene-Environment Interaction

Despite current enthusiasm for investigation of gene-gene interactions and gene-environment interactions, the essential issue of how to define and detect gene-environment interactions remains unresolved. In this report, we define gene-environment interactions as a stochastic dependence in the context of the effects of the genetic and environmental risk factors on the cause of phenotypic variation among individuals. We use mutual information that is widely used in communication and complex system analysis to measure gene-environment interactions. We investigate how gene-environment interactions generate the large difference in the information measure of gene-environment interactions between the general population and a diseased population, which motives us to develop mutual information-based statistics for testing gene-environment interactions. We validated the null distribution and calculated the type 1 error rates for the mutual information-based statistics to test gene-environment interactions using extensive simulation studies. We found that the new test statistics were more powerful than the traditional logistic regression under several disease models. Finally, in order to further evaluate the performance of our new method, we applied the mutual information-based statistics to three real examples. Our results showed that P-values for the mutual information-based statistics were much smaller than that obtained by other approaches including logistic regression models.

Perceived usefulness of RFID-enabled information services – a systematic approach

Even though RFID technology is currently gaining importance mainly in logistics, usage areas, such as shopping or after-sales enhancements beyond the supply chain are envisioned. Yet, while RFID hits the street it is questioned if it may undermine one’s privacy while providing few customer benefits. Meeting this criticism this paper investigates RFID-enabled information services and the drivers of their usefulness for consumers. The article claims that the more risk one associates with a product the more benefit from RFID-enabled information services is perceived. We show empirically that the nature of product risk provides a useful framework to decide on the types of RFID information services a marketer should offer to create RFID usefulness perceptions and increase technology acceptance.

Influence of Anchoring on Miscarriage Risk Perception Associated with Amniocentesis

INFLUENCE OF ANCHORING ON MISCARRIAGE RISK PERCEPTION ASSOCIATED WITH AMNIOCENTESIS Publication No. ___________ Regina Nuccio, BS Supervisory Professor: Claire N. Singletary, MS, CGC Amniocentesis is the most common invasive procedure performed during pregnancy (Eddleman, et al., 2006). One important factor that women consider when making a decision about amniocentesis is the risk of miscarriage associated with the procedure. People use heuristics such as anchoring, the action of using a prior belief regarding the magnitude of risk as a frame of reference for new information to be synthesized, to better understand risks that they encounter in their lives. This study aimed to determine a woman’s perception of miscarriage risk associated with amniocentesis before and after a genetic counseling session and to determine what factors are most likely to anchor a woman’s perception of miscarriage risk associated with amniocentesis. Most women perceived the risk as low or average pre-counseling and were likely to indicate the numeric risk of amniocentesis as <1% risk. A higher percentage of patients correctly identified the numeric risk as <1% post-counseling when compared to pre-counseling. However, the majority of patients’ feeling about the risk perception did not change after the genetic counseling session (60%), regardless of how they perceived the risk before discussing amniocentesis with a genetic counselor. Those whose risk perception did change after discussing amniocentesis with a genetic counselor showed a decreased risk perception (p<0.0001). Of the multitude of factors studied, only two showed significance: having a friend or relative with a personal or family history of a genetic disorder was associated with a lower risk perception (p=0.001) and having a child already was associated with a lower risk perception (p=0.038). The lack of significant factors may reflect the uniqueness of each patient’s heuristic framework and reinforces the importance of genetic counseling to elucidate individual concerns.

Knowledge and Perception of the Role of Targeted Ultrasound in Detecting Down Syndrome Among a High Risk Population

The purpose of this study was to determine the perception and knowledge of targeted ultrasound in women who screen positive for Down syndrome in the first or second trimester, and to assess the perceived detection rate of Down syndrome by targeted ultrasound in this population. While several studies have reported patient perceptions’ of routine ultrasound, no study has specifically examined knowledge regarding the targeted ultrasound and its role in detecting Down syndrome. A targeted ultrasound is a special ultrasound during the second trimester offered to women who may be at a higher-than-average risk of having a baby with some type of birth defect or complication. The purpose of the ultrasound is to evaluate the overall growth and development of the baby as well as screen for birth defects and genetic conditions. Women under the age of 35 referred for an abnormal first or second trimester maternal serum screen to several Houston area clinics were asked to complete a questionnaire to obtain demographic and ultrasound knowledge information as well as assess perceived detection rate of Down syndrome by ultrasound. Seventy-seven women completed the questionnaire and participated in the study. Our findings revealed that women have limited background knowledge about the targeted ultrasound and its role in detecting Down syndrome. These findings are consistent with other studies that have reported a lack of understanding about the purpose of ultrasound examinations. One factor that seems to increase background knowledge about the targeted ultrasound is individuals having a higher level of education. However, most participants regardless of race, education, income, and exposure to targeted ultrasound information did not know the capabilities of a targeted ultrasound. This study confirmed women lack background knowledge about the targeted ultrasound and do not know enough about the technology to form a perception regarding its ability to detect Down syndrome. Additional studies to identify appropriate education techniques are necessary to determine how to best inform our patient population about targeted ultrasound.

Physician perceptions of risk regarding mood disorders and pharmacological management during pregnancy: What is current practice?

Mood disorders are the most common form of mental illness and one of the leading causes of morbidity worldwide. Major depressive disorder and bipolar disorder have a lifetime prevalence of 16.2% and 4.4%, respectively. Women comprise a substantial proportion of this population, and an estimated 500,000 pregnancies each year involve women with a psychiatric condition. Management with psychotropic medications is considered standard of care for most patients with mood disorders. However, many of these medications are known human teratogens. Because pregnant women with mood disorders face a high risk of relapse if unmanaged, the obstetrician faces a unique challenge in providing the best care to both mother and baby. It has been suggested that many obstetricians overestimate the teratogenic risks associated with psychotropic medications, while concurrently underestimating the risks associated with unmanaged mood disorders. This may be due a knowledge gap regarding the most current teratogen information, and lack of official management guidelines. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to determine the current knowledge base of obstetricians regarding the teratogenic effects of common psychotropic medications, as wells as to capture current management practices for pregnant women with mood disorders. A total of 117 Texas obstetricians responded to a survey regarding teratogen knowledge and management practice. It was common for respondents to encounter women who disclose both having a mood disorder and taking a psychotropic medication during pregnancy. Many respondents did not utilize up-to-date drug counseling resources, and were unaware of or over-estimated the teratogenic risks of common medications used to treat mood disorders. Finally, many respondents reported wanting to refer pregnant patients with mood disorders to psychiatrists for co-management, but are reportedly restricted in doing so due to accessibility or insurance issues. This study demonstrates that there is a knowledge gap among obstetricians regarding the teratogenicity of common psychotropic medications utilized to manage a patient population they frequently encounter. Further, obstetricians have vastly different risk perceptions of these medications, resulting in various management approaches and recommendations. Future research should focus on establishing standard practice guidelines, as well as better accessibility to psychiatric services for pregnant women.

A new methodological protocol for the use of dendrogeomorphological data in flood risk analysis

Dendrogeomorphology uses information sources recorded in the roots, trunks and branches of trees and bushes located in the fluvial system to complement (or sometimes even replace) systematic and palaeohydrological records of past floods. The application of dendrogeomorphic data sources and methods to palaeoflood analysis over nearly 40 years has allowed improvements to be made in frequency and magnitude estimations of past floods. Nevertheless, research carried out so far has shown that the dendrogeomorphic indicators traditionally used (mainly scar evidence), and their use to infer frequency and magnitude, have been restricted to a small, limited set of applications. New possibilities with enormous potential remain unexplored. New insights in future research of palaeoflood frequency and magnitude using dendrogeomorphic data sources should: (1) test the application of isotopic indicators (16O/18O ratio) to discover the meteorological origin of past floods; (2) use different dendrogeomorphic indicators to estimate peak flows with 2D (and 3D) hydraulic models and study how they relate to other palaeostage indicators; (3) investigate improved calibration of 2D hydraulic model parameters (roughness); and (4) apply statistics-based cost–benefit analysis to select optimal mitigation measures. This paper presents an overview of these innovative methodologies, with a focus on their capabilities and limitations in the reconstruction of recent floods and palaeofloods.

Atopic conditions and brain tumor risk in children and adolescents--an international case-control study (CEFALO)

BACKGROUND A number of epidemiological studies indicate an inverse association between atopy and brain tumors in adults, particularly gliomas. We investigated the association between atopic disorders and intracranial brain tumors in children and adolescents, using international collaborative CEFALO data. PATIENTS AND METHODS CEFALO is a population-based case-control study conducted in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland, including all children and adolescents in the age range 7-19 years diagnosed with a primary brain tumor between 2004 and 2008. Two controls per case were randomly selected from population registers matched on age, sex, and geographic region. Information about atopic conditions and potential confounders was collected through personal interviews. RESULTS In total, 352 cases (83%) and 646 controls (71%) participated in the study. For all brain tumors combined, there was no association between ever having had an atopic disorder and brain tumor risk [odds ratio 1.03; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-1.34]. The OR was 0.76 (95% CI 0.53-1.11) for a current atopic condition (in the year before diagnosis) and 1.22 (95% CI 0.86-1.74) for an atopic condition in the past. Similar results were observed for glioma. CONCLUSIONS There was no association between atopic conditions and risk of all brain tumors combined or of glioma in particular. Stratification on current or past atopic conditions suggested the possibility of reverse causality, but may also the result of random variation because of small numbers in subgroups. In addition, an ongoing tumor treatment may affect the manifestation of atopic conditions, which could possibly affect recall when reporting about a history of atopic diseases. Only a few studies on atopic conditions and pediatric brain tumors are currently available, and the evidence is conflicting.