Creating risk measurement model to project portfolio management in construction company

This thesis was carried out as a case study of a company YIT in order to clarify the sev-erest risks for the company and to build a method for project portfolio evaluation. The target organization creates new living environment by constructing residential buildings, business premises, infrastructure and entire areas worth for EUR 1.9 billion in the year 2013. Company has noted project portfolio management needs more information about the structure of project portfolio and possible influences of market shock situation. With interviews have been evaluated risks with biggest influence and most appropriate metrics to examine. The major risks for the company were evaluated by interviewing the executive staff. At the same time, the most appropriate risk metrics were considered. At the moment sales risk was estimated to have biggest impact on company‟s business. Therefore project port-folio evaluation model was created and three different scenarios for company‟s future were created in order to identify the scale of possible market shock situation. The created model is tested with public and descriptive figures of YIT in a one-year-long market shock and the impact on different metrics was evaluated. Study was conducted using con-structive research methodology. Results indicate that company has notable sales risk in certain sections of business portfolio.

Development of Generic Simulation Model for Mobile Working Machines

This master’s thesis has been done for Drive! –project in which a new electric motor solution for mobile working machines is developed. Generic simulation model will be used as marketing and development tool. It can be used to model a wide variety of different vehicles with and without electric motor and to show customer the difference between traditionally build vehicles and those with new electric motor solution. Customers can also use simulation model to research different solutions for their own vehicles. At the start of the project it was decided that MeVEA software would be used as main simulation program and Simulink will only be used to simulate the operation of electrical components. Development of the generic model started with the research of these two software applications, simulation models which are made with them and how these simulation models can be build faster. Best results were used for building of generic simulation model. Finished generic model can be used to produce new tractor models for real-time simulations in short notice. All information about model is collected to one datasheet which can be easily filled by the user. After datasheet is filled a script will automatically build new simulation model in seconds. At the moment generic model is capable of building simulation models for wide variety of different tractors but it can be easily altered for other vehicle types too which would also benefit greatly from electric drive solution. Those could be for example wheel loaders and harvesters.

Dynamic carbon dioxide liquidization model

In literature CO 2 liquidization is well studied with steady state modeling. Steady state modeling gives an overview of the process but it doesn’t give information about process behavior during transients. In this master’s thesis three dynamic models of CO2 liquidization were made and tested. Models were straight multi-stage compression model and two compression liquid pumping models, one with and one without cold energy recovery. Models were made with Apros software, models were also used to verify that Apros is capable to model phase changes and over critical state of CO 2. Models were verified against compressor manufacturer’s data and simulation results presented in literature. From the models made in this thesis, straight compression model was found to be the most energy efficient and fastest to react to transients. Also Apros was found to be capable tool for dynamic liquidization modeling.

Forest inventory information needs in Northwest Russia

This thesis applies the customer value hierarchy model to forestry in order to determine strategic options to enhance the value of LiDAR technology in Russian forestry. The study is conducted as a qualitative case study with semi-structured interviews as a main source of the primary data. The customer value hierarchy model constitutes a theoretical base for the research. Secondary data incorporates information on forest resource management, LiDAR technology and Russian forestry. The model is operationalised using forestry literature and forms a basis for analyses of primary data. Analyses of primary data coupled with comprehension of Russian forest inventory system and knowledge on global forest inventory have led to conclusions on the forest inventory methods selection criteria and the organizations that would benefit the most from LiDAR technology use. The thesis recommends strategic options for LiDAR technology’s value enhancement in Russian forestry.

A simple model for circadian timing by mammals

Circadian timing is structured in such a way as to receive information from the external and internal environments, and its function is the timing organization of the physiological and behavioral processes in a circadian pattern. In mammals, the circadian timing system consists of a group of structures, which includes the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN), the intergeniculate leaflet and the pineal gland. Neuron groups working as a biological pacemaker are found in the SCN, forming a biological master clock. We present here a simple model for the circadian timing system of mammals, which is able to reproduce two fundamental characteristics of biological rhythms: the endogenous generation of pulses and synchronization with the light-dark cycle. In this model, the biological pacemaker of the SCN was modeled as a set of 1000 homogeneously distributed coupled oscillators with long-range coupling forming a spherical lattice. The characteristics of the oscillator set were defined taking into account the Kuramoto's oscillator dynamics, but we used a new method for estimating the equilibrium order parameter. Simultaneous activities of the excitatory and inhibitory synapses on the elements of the circadian timing circuit at each instant were modeled by specific equations for synaptic events. All simulation programs were written in Fortran 77, compiled and run on PC DOS computers. Our model exhibited responses in agreement with physiological patterns. The values of output frequency of the oscillator system (maximal value of 3.9 Hz) were of the order of magnitude of the firing frequencies recorded in suprachiasmatic neurons of rodents in vivo and in vitro (from 1.8 to 5.4 Hz).

A novel polar-based human face recognition computational model

Motivated by a recently proposed biologically inspired face recognition approach, we investigated the relation between human behavior and a computational model based on Fourier-Bessel (FB) spatial patterns. We measured human recognition performance of FB filtered face images using an 8-alternative forced-choice method. Test stimuli were generated by converting the images from the spatial to the FB domain, filtering the resulting coefficients with a band-pass filter, and finally taking the inverse FB transformation of the filtered coefficients. The performance of the computational models was tested using a simulation of the psychophysical experiment. In the FB model, face images were first filtered by simulated V1- type neurons and later analyzed globally for their content of FB components. In general, there was a higher human contrast sensitivity to radially than to angularly filtered images, but both functions peaked at the 11.3-16 frequency interval. The FB-based model presented similar behavior with regard to peak position and relative sensitivity, but had a wider frequency band width and a narrower response range. The response pattern of two alternative models, based on local FB analysis and on raw luminance, strongly diverged from the human behavior patterns. These results suggest that human performance can be constrained by the type of information conveyed by polar patterns, and consequently that humans might use FB-like spatial patterns in face processing.

Glomerular filtration is reduced by high tidal volume ventilation in an in vivo healthy rat model

Mechanical ventilation has been associated with organ failure in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome. The present study examines the effects of tidal volume (V T) on renal function using two V T values (8 and 27 mL/kg) in anesthetized, paralyzed and mechanically ventilated male Wistar rats. Animals were randomized into two groups of 6 rats each: V T8 (V T, 8 mL/kg; 61.50 ± 0.92 breaths/min; positive end-expiratory pressure, 3.0 cmH2O; peak airway pressure (PAW), 11.8 ± 2.0 cmH2O), and V T27 (V T, 27 mL/kg; 33.60 ± 1.56 breaths/min; positive end-expiratory pressure, none, and PAW, 22.7 ± 4.0 cmH2O). Throughout the experiment, mean PAW remained comparable between the two groups (6.33 ± 0.21 vs 6.50 ± 0.22 cmH2O). For rats in the V T27 group, inulin clearance (mL·min-1·body weight-1) decreased acutely after 60 min of mechanical ventilation and even more significantly after 90 min, compared with baseline values (0.60 ± 0.05 and 0.45 ± 0.05 vs 0.95 ± 0.07; P < 0.001), although there were no differences between groups in mean arterial pressure or gasometric variables. In the V T8 group, inulin clearance at 120 min of mechanical ventilation remained unchanged in relation to baseline values (0.72 ± 0.03 vs 0.80 ± 0.05). The V T8 and V T27 groups did not differ in terms of serum thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (3.97 ± 0.27 vs 4.02 ± 0.45 nmol/mL) or endothelial nitric oxide synthase expression (94.25 ± 2.75 vs 96.25 ± 2.39%). Our results show that glomerular filtration is acutely affected by high tidal volume ventilation but do not provide information about the mechanism.

Early neonatal echocardiographic findings in an experimental rabbit model of congenital diaphragmatic hernia

This study aimed to demonstrate that congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) results in vascular abnormalities that are directly associated with the severity of pulmonary hypoplasia and hypertension. These events increase right ventricle (RV) afterload and may adversely affect disease management and patient survival. Our objective was to investigate cardiac function, specifically right ventricular changes, immediately after birth and relate them to myocardial histological findings in a CDH model. Pregnant New Zealand rabbits underwent the surgical procedure at 25 days of gestation (n=14). CDH was created in one fetus per horn (n=16), and the other fetuses were used as controls (n=20). At term (30 days), fetuses were removed, immediately dried and weighed before undergoing four-parameter echocardiography. The lungs and the heart were removed, weighed, and histologically analyzed. CDH animals had smaller total lung weight (P<0.005), left lung weight (P<0.005), and lung-to-body ratio (P<0.005). Echocardiography revealed a smaller left-to-right ventricle ratio (LV/RV, P<0.005) and larger diastolic right ventricle size (DRVS, P<0.007). Histologic analysis revealed a larger number of myocytes undergoing mitotic division (186 vs 132, P<0.05) in CDH hearts. Immediate RV dilation of CDH hearts is related to myocyte mitosis increase. This information may aid the design of future strategies to address pulmonary hypertension in CDH.

Comparison of Model-Based Flow Rate Estimation Methods in Frequency-Converter-Driven Pumps and Fans

Fluid handling systems such as pump and fan systems are found to have a significant potential for energy efficiency improvements. To deliver the energy saving potential, there is a need for easily implementable methods to monitor the system output. This is because information is needed to identify inefficient operation of the fluid handling system and to control the output of the pumping system according to process needs. Model-based pump or fan monitoring methods implemented in variable speed drives have proven to be able to give information on the system output without additional metering; however, the current model-based methods may not be usable or sufficiently accurate in the whole operation range of the fluid handling device. To apply model-based system monitoring in a wider selection of systems and to improve the accuracy of the monitoring, this paper proposes a new method for pump and fan output monitoring with variable-speed drives. The method uses a combination of already known operating point estimation methods. Laboratory measurements are used to verify the benefits and applicability of the improved estimation method, and the new method is compared with five previously introduced model-based estimation methods. According to the laboratory measurements, the new estimation method is the most accurate and reliable of the model-based estimation methods.

Forest inventory information needs in Northwest Russia

This research report applies the customer value hierarchy model to forestry in order to determine strategic options to enhance the value of LiDAR technology in Russian forestry. The study is conducted as a qualitative case study with semi-structured interviews as a main source of the primary data. The customer value hierarchy model constitutes a theoretical base for the research. Secondary data incorporates information on forest resource management, LiDAR technology and Russian forestry. The model is operationalised using forestry literature and forms a basis for analyses of primary data. Analyses of primary data coupled with comprehension of Russian forest inventory system and knowledge on global forest inventory have led to conclusions on the forest inventory methods selection criteria and the organizations that would benefit the most from LiDAR technology use. The report recommends strategic options for LiDAR technology’s value enhancement in Russian forestry. This work has been conducted as a part of the project ‘Finnish-Russian Forest Academy 2 - Exploiting and Piloting’, which has been supported financially by the South-East Finland- Russia ENPI CBC 2007-2014 Programme.

Market anomalies and tactical asset allocation: Utilising market anomalies in multiple asset class portfolios with the Black−Litterman model

This thesis discusses the basic problem of the modern portfolio theory about how to optimise the perfect allocation for an investment portfolio. The theory provides a solution for an efficient portfolio, which minimises the risk of the portfolio with respect to the expected return. A central feature for all the portfolios on the efficient frontier is that the investor needs to provide the expected return for each asset. Market anomalies are persistent patterns seen in the financial markets, which cannot be explained with the current asset pricing theory. The goal of this thesis is to study whether these anomalies can be observed among different asset classes. Finally, if persistent patterns are found, it is investigated whether the anomalies hold valuable information for determining the expected returns used in the portfolio optimization Market anomalies and investment strategies based on them are studied with a rolling estimation window, where the return for the following period is always based on historical information. This is also crucial when rebalancing the portfolio. The anomalies investigated within this thesis are value, momentum, reversal, and idiosyncratic volatility. The research data includes price series of country level stock indices, government bonds, currencies, and commodities. The modern portfolio theory and the views given by the anomalies are combined by utilising the Black-Litterman model. This makes it possible to optimise the portfolio so that investor’s views are taken into account. When constructing the portfolios, the goal is to maximise the Sharpe ratio. Significance of the results is studied by assessing if the strategy yields excess returns in a relation to those explained by the threefactormodel. The most outstanding finding is that anomaly based factors include valuable information to enhance efficient portfolio diversification. When the highest Sharpe ratios for each asset class are picked from the test factors and applied to the Black−Litterman model, the final portfolio results in superior riskreturn combination. The highest Sharpe ratios are provided by momentum strategy for stocks and long-term reversal for the rest of the asset classes. Additionally, a strategy based on the value effect was highly appealing, and it basically performs as well as the previously mentioned Sharpe strategy. When studying the anomalies, it is found, that 12-month momentum is the strongest effect, especially for stock indices. In addition, a high idiosyncratic volatility seems to be positively correlated with country indices on stocks.

The Forecast Performance of Model-Free Implied Volatility: Evidence from DAX Index Options

Volatility has a central role in various theoretical and practical applications in financial markets. These include the applications related to portfolio theory, derivatives pricing and financial risk management. Both theoretical and practical applications require good estimates and forecasts for the asset return volatility. The goal of this study is to examine the forecast performance of one of the more recent volatility measures, model-free implied volatility. Model-free implied volatility is extracted from the prices in the option markets, and it aims to provide an unbiased estimate for the market’s expectation on the future level of volatility. Since it is extracted from the option prices, model-free implied volatility should contain all the relevant information that the market participants have. Moreover, model-free implied volatility requires less restrictive assumptions than the commonly used Black-Scholes implied volatility, which means that it should be less biased estimate for the market’s expectations. Therefore, it should also be a better forecast for the future volatility. The forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is evaluated by comparing it to the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility and GARCH(1,1) forecast. Weekly forecasts for six years period were calculated for the forecasted variable, German stock market index DAX. The data consisted of price observations for DAX index options. The forecast performance was measured using econometric methods, which aimed to capture the biasedness, accuracy and the information content of the forecasts. The results of the study suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is superior to forecast performance of GARCH(1,1) forecast. However, the results also suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is not as good as the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility, which is against the hypotheses based on theory. The results of this study are consistent with the majority of prior research on the subject.

Finnish perceptions on management accounting systems: towards an upgraded sophistication model

This study is based on a large survey study of over 1500 Finnish companies’ usage, needs and implementation difficulties of management accounting systems. The study uses quantitative, qualitative and mixed methods to answer the research questions. The empirical data used in the study was gathered through structured interviews with randomly selected companies of varying sizes and industries. The study answers the three research questions by analyzing the characteristics and behaviors of companies working in Finland. The study found five distinctive groups of companies according to the characteristics of their cost information and management accounting system use. The study also showed that the state of cost information and management accounting systems depends on the industry and size of the companies. It was found that over 50% of the companies either did not know how their systems could be updated or saw systems as inadequate. The qualitative side also highlighted the needs for tailored and integrated management accounting systems for creating more value to the managers of companies. The major inhibitors of new system implementation were the lack of both monetary and human resources. Through the use of mixed methods and design science a new and improved sophistication model is created based on previous research results combined with the information gathered from previous literature. The sophistication model shows the different stages of management accounting systems in use and what companies can achieve with the implementation and upgrading of their systems.

Customer Need Assessment for Differentiation in Building Information Modeling

Building Information Modeling – BIM is widely spreading in the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) industries. Manufacturers of building elements are also starting to provide more and more objects of their products. The ideal availability and distribution for these models is not yet stabilized. Usual goal of a manufacturer is to get their model into design as early as possible. Finding the ways to satisfy customer needs with a superior service would help to achieve this goal. This study aims to seek what case company’s customers want out of the model and what they think is the ideal way to obtain these models and what are the desired functionalities for this service. This master’s thesis uses a modified version of lead user method to gain understanding of what the needs are in a longer term. In this framework also benchmarking of current solutions and their common model functions is done. Empirical data is collected with survey and interviews. As a result this thesis provides understanding that what is the information customer uses when obtaining a model, what kind of model is expected to be achieved and how is should the process optimally function. Based on these results ideal service is pointed out.

Choosing the service support model after a merger: Case Are Ltd.

The meaning of information technology (IT) and information systems have increased during the last few years. This is mainly because business is nowadays seen more and more as a service business and IT is one of the key elements to support those business services. Since the meaning of IT services has increased also the meaning of IT service support should be a factor paid more attention to. Especially after a merger and acquisition (M&A) it is more important than ever to consider service support. The purpose of this study is to discover the best practices for choosing a suitable service support model. The research question is How to choose a service support organization model for the ERP service desk function after a merger? A qualitative method is selected as a research method. This thesis includes two parts: a literature review and a case study. Theoretical part compiles an integrated model of previous research on the topic. It consists a collection of academic articles, publications and reports. The empirical part focuses on the issues in the case organization. That part tries to answer the question: what would be the most suitable service support model for the case organization? The empirical part is conducted by interviewing the employees of the case organization. This study finds that even though there are many ways of selecting a service support model it is difficult to define an unambiguous guidelines. However, there are few main objectives that should be taken into account regardless the case. Especially by using ITIL processes it is possible to implement a comprehensive service support and raise overall awareness of the existing service support models. The main functions that need to be taken into account are nature, industry and size of the organization. Also the business strategy, goals and resources need to be considered. These are the same factors that are noticed in the case study as well. The suggestions for the case organization are presented based on the interviews and the literature review.