The asymmetric behavior of the U.S public debt

Our main goal in this paper was to measure how e¢ cient is risk sharing between countries. In order to do so, we have used a international risk sharIn this paper we re-analyze the question of the U.S. public debt sustainability by using a quantile autoregression model. This modeling allows for testing whether the behavior of U.S. public debt is asymmetric or not. Our results provide evidence of a band of sustainability. Outside this band, the U.S. public debt is unsustainable. We also nd scal policy to be adequate in the sense that occasional episodes in which the public debt moves out of the band do not pose a threat to long run sustainability.

The asymmetric behavior of the U.S. public debt

In this paper we re-analyze the question of the U.S. public debt sustainability by using a quantile autoregression model. This modeling allows for testing whether the behavior of U.S. public debt is asymmetric or not. Our results provide evidence of a band of sustainability. Outside this band, the U.S. public debt is unsustainable. We also find fiscal policy to be adequate in the sense that occasional episodes in which the public debt moves out of the band do not pose a threat to long run sustainability.

Essays on the general equilibrium effects of barriers to trade on economic growth, foreign trade and the location of economic activity in Brazil

This work presents a fully operational interstate CGE model implemented for the Brazilian economy that tries to quantify both the role of barriers to trade on economic growth and foreign trade performance and how the distribution of the economic activity may change as the country opens up to foreign trade. Among the distinctive features embedded in the model, modeling of external scale economies, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. In order to illustrate the role played by the quality of infrastructure and geography on the country‟s foreign and interregional trade performance, a set of simulations is presented where barriers to trade are significantly reduced. The relative importance of trade policy, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs for the country trade relations and regional growth is then detailed and quantified, considering both short run as well as long run scenarios. A final set of simulations shed some light on the effects of liberal trade policies on regional inequality, where the manufacturing sector in the state of São Paulo, taken as the core of industrial activity in the country, is subjected to different levels of external economies of scale. Short-run core-periphery effects are then traced out suggesting the prevalence of agglomeration forces over diversion forces could rather exacerbate regional inequality as import barriers are removed up to a certain level. Further removals can reverse this balance in favor of diversion forces, implying de-concentration of economic activity. In the long run, factor mobility allows a better characterization of the balance between agglomeration and diversion forces among regions. Regional dispersion effects are then clearly traced-out, suggesting horizontal liberal trade policies to benefit both the poorest regions in the country as well as the state of São Paulo. This long run dispersion pattern, on one hand seems to unravel the fragility of simple theoretical results from recent New Economic Geography models, once they get confronted with more complex spatially heterogeneous (real) systems. On the other hand, it seems to capture the literature‟s main insight: the possible role of horizontal liberal trade policies as diversion forces leading to a more homogeneous pattern of interregional economic growth.

The n-dimensional bailey-divisia measure as a general-equilibrium measure of the welfare costs of inflation

This paper shows that in economies with several monies the Bailey-Divisia multidimensional consumers surplus formula may emerge as an exact general-equilibrium measure of the welfare costs of in ation, provided that preferences are quasilinear.

Monetary dynamics in a general equilibrium version of the Baumol-Tobin model

I study the welfare cost of inflation and the effect on prices after a permanent increase in the interest rate. In the steady state, the real money demand is homogeneous of degree one in income and its interest-rate elasticity is approximately equal to −1/2. Consumers are indifferent between an economy with 10% p.a. inflation and one with zero inflation if their income is 1% higher in the first economy. A permanent increase in the interest rate makes the price level to drop initially and inflation to adjust slowly to its steady state level.

A simple analysis of the U.S. emission permits auctions

We examine a stylized version of EPA auctions when agents know the list of values of sellers and buyers. Sellers and buyers behave strategically. We show that there are two types of equilibria: inefficient equilibria where no goods are traded and efficient equilibria where alI exchange occurs at a uniform price. We also provide examples of the EPA auction game under incomplete information when the uniform price equilibrium holds and when it does not hold. When the uniform price equilibrium holds, sellers shade their bids up and buyers shade their bids down. In the example where the uniform price equilibrium does not hold, both buyers and sellers shade their bids down in an equilibrium.

Relativistic Archimedes law for fast moving bodies and the general-relativistic resolution of the submarine paradox

We investigate and solve in the context of general relativity the apparent paradox which appears when bodies floating in a background fluid are set in relativistic motion. Suppose some macroscopic body, say, a submarine designed to lie just in equilibrium when it rests (totally) immersed in a certain background fluid. The puzzle arises when different observers are asked to describe what is expected to happen when the submarine is given some high velocity parallel to the direction of the fluid surface. on the one hand, according to observers at rest with the fluid, the submarine would contract and, thus, sink as a consequence of the density increase. on the other hand, mariners at rest with the submarine using an analogous reasoning for the fluid elements would reach the opposite conclusion. The general relativistic extension of the Archimedes law for moving bodies shows that the submarine sinks. As an extra bonus, this problem suggests a new gedankenexperiment for the generalized second law of thermodynamics.

Bioecology of the uçá-crab, Ucides cordatus (Linnaeus, 1763), in Vitória Bay, Espírito Santo State, Brazil

A biologia de Ucides cordatus na Baía de Vitória (ES) foi avaliada como subsídio ao manejo populacional. As amostragens ocorreram mensalmente durante um ano (outubro/1998 a setembro/1999), com análise biométrica (LC = largura da carapaça; PE = peso total úmido) e de fatores abióticos em quatro transectos, com quatro faixas cada (margem à região supratidal). A densidade foi de 3,7±1,5 caranguejos.m-2, com incremento em direção à região supratidal, sendo a profundidade das galerias de 1,1±0,3 m. A salinidade da água intersticial diferiu entre as faixas, sendo mais elevada na região supratidal. Houve correlação significativa entre a abundância de exemplares e alguns fatores ambientais, o mesmo ocorrendo quanto as tocas abertas e fechadas. A razão sexual evidenciou um predomínio de fêmeas (1,0M:1,6F), particularmente entre 50 e 75 mm LC. A maior incidência de tocas fechadas ocorreu em agosto e setembro, enquanto as fêmeas ovígeras foram registradas de janeiro a abril. A relação PE/LC mostrou isometria para os machos (PE=0,425.10-3 LC3,0014; R²=0,99) e fêmeas (P=0,439.10-3 LC2,97; R²=0,99). Para o total da população a média de tamanho (LC) e peso (PE) foi de 54,6±11,8 mm e de 77,5±42,4 g, respectivamente. Os dados evidenciam que a população encontra-se sobrexplotada, requerendo manejo adequado para a viabilidade da atividade extrativa na área estudada.

Determination of the U-238 spontaneous fission decay constant without neutron irradiation

We have developed a methodology for measuring the decay constant of the spontaneous fission of U-238, lambda(f), using nuclear particle track detectors where thermal neutron irradiation is unnecessary. This methodology is based on the fact that the radiation damage caused by spontaneous fission of trans-uranium elements bearing a mass number close to 238 are similar to U-238 spontaneous-fission ones. Loading a thick source of uranium (thickness greater than the fission fragment range) with a small amount of a suitable trans-uranium element (for instance, Pu-242, which presents a spontaneous fission half-life of 6.75(.)10(10) y), it is possible to determine the observation efficiency of a particle-track detector for fission fragments. Procedures concerning our thick source manufacture and uniformity tests of the trans-uranium distribution are also presented. These results make it possible for the exposure of thick uranium sources (without trans-uranium element) to lead to a lambda(f) value.

Latin-American Society Of Forensic Genetics (SLAGF) results of the Interlaboratory Quality Control Exercise 2010-2011

Latin-American Society of Forensic Genetics (SLAGF) Interlaboratory Quality Control Exercise (2010-2011) included the analysis of three bloodstain samples in FTA Classic Card (three persons, biologically unrelated) and one theoretical exercise. There were 56 participating laboratories from 13 Latin-American countries that belong to society, were reported 70 STRs, including autosomal and sex chromosome markers with consensus in 53 STRs with a rate in reporting errors of 2.3%. Fifty-six laboratories reported results in theoretical exercise with mistakes in calculation of IP for each marker. It is necessary to hold meetings to discuss the results of this exercise to reach conclusions and recommendations on all aspects of DNA forensics analysis and paternity test, to improve results and quality in the results of each laboratory. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.