Essays on political economy

The first chapter analizes conditional assistance programs. They generate conflicting relationships between international financial institutions (IFIs) and member countries. The experience of IFIs with conditionality in the 1990s led them to allow countries more latitude in the design of their reform programs. A reformist government does not need conditionality and it is useless if it does not want to reform. A government that faces opposition may use conditionality and the help of pro-reform lobbies as a lever to counteract anti-reform groups and succeed in implementing reforms.^ The second chapter analizes economies saddled with taxes and regulations. I consider an economy in which many taxes, subsidies, and other distortionary restrictions are in place simultaneously. If I start from an inefficient laissez-faire equilibrium because of some domestic distortion, a small trade tax or subsidy can yield a first-order welfare improvement, even if the instrument itself creates distortions of its own. This may result in "welfare paradoxes". The purpose of the chapter is to quantify the welfare effects of changes in tax rates in a small open economy. I conduct the simulation in the context of an intertemporal utility maximization framework. I apply numerical methods to the model developed by Karayalcin. I introduce changes in the tax rates and quantify both the impact on welfare, consumption and foreign assets, and the path to the new steady-state values.^ The third chapter studies the role of stock markets and adjustment costs in the international transmission of supply shocks. The analysis of the transmission of a positive supply shock that originates in one of the countries shows that on impact the shock leads to an inmediate stock market boom enjoying the technological advance, while the other country suffers from depress stock market prices as demand for its equity declines. A period of adjustment begins culminating in a steady state capital and output level that is identical to the one before the shock. The the capital stock of one country undergoes a non-monotonic adjustment. The model is tested with plausible values of the variables and the numeric results confirm the predictions of the theory.^

A Customer's Expectation and Perception of Hotel Service Quality in Cyprus

In recent years, hotels in Cyprus have encountered difficult economic times due to increasing customer demands and strong internal industry development competition. The hospitality industry’s main concern globally is to serve its customer S needs and desires, most of which are addressed through personal services. Hence, the hotel businesses that are able to provide quality services to its ever-demanding customers in a warm and efficient manner are those businesses which will be more likely to obtain a long term competitive advantage over their rivals. Ironically, the quality of services frequently cannot fully appreciated until something goes wrong, and then, the poor quality of services can have long lasting lingering effects on the customer base and, hence, often is translated into a loss of business. Nevertheless, since the issue of delivery of hospitality services always involves people, this issue must center around the management of the human resource factor, and in particular, on the way which interacts with itself and with guests, as service encounters. In the eyes of guests, hospitality businesses will be viewed successful or failure, depending on [he cumulative impact of the service encounters they have experienced on a personal level. Finally, since hotels are offering intangible and perishable personal service encounters, managing these services must be a paramount concern of any hotel business. As a preliminary exercise, visualize when you have last visited a hotel, or a restaurant, and then, ask yourself these questions: What did you feel about the quality of the experience? Was it a memorable one, which you would recommend it to others, or there were certain things, which could have made the difference? Thus, the way personalized services are provided can make the deference in attracting arid retaining long-term customers

Water for the Wayuu: Procurement and maximization of a limited resource among indigenous pastoralists on the Guajira Peninsula of northern Colombia

For the Wayuu of the Guajira Peninsula of northern Colombia, water procurement has historically been challenging. The ancestral territory of this indigenous pastoral society is windy and arid, with low rainfall, high temperatures and an absence of perennial rivers or streams. In the past, the Wayuu adapted to these environmental conditions by practicing transhumance during the prolonged dry seasons, digging spring wells and artificial ponds and by following guiding principles for water usage. Since the 1930s, the government has made efforts to build additional wind-powered wells and ponds for a growing native population. Notwithstanding, these water solutions have only partly met the necessities; public water sources are limited or unreliable and few attempts are made to generate safe drinking water. Furthermore, the ubiquitous practice of animal husbandry places added pressure on existing sources; livestock consume more water than the human populations in the areas visited. Rapid assessments in four Wayuu areas on the peninsula were conducted by the author and an interdisciplinary team working for the Cerrejón Foundation for Water in La Guajira from 2010 to 2013. The assessments were part of a larger pilot project to design and implement a sustainability plan for reservoir-based water supply systems in the region. This study brings cultural practices and local knowledge to the forefront as key elements for the success of water works and other development projects carried out in Wayuu territory.

Essays On Political Economy

The first chapter analizes conditional assistance programs. They generate conflicting relationships between international financial institutions (IFIs) and member countries. The experience of IFIs with conditionality in the 1990s led them to allow countries more latitude in the design of their reform programs. A reformist government does not need conditionality and it is useless if it does not want to reform. A government that faces opposition may use conditionality and the help of pro-reform lobbies as a lever to counteract anti-reform groups and succeed in implementing reforms. The second chapter analizes economies saddled with taxes and regulations. I consider an economy in which many taxes, subsidies, and other distortionary restrictions are in place simultaneously. If I start from an inefficient laissez-faire equilibrium because of some domestic distortion, a small trade tax or subsidy can yield a first-order welfare improvement, even if the instrument itself creates distortions of its own. This may result in "welfare paradoxes". The purpose of the chapter is to quantify the welfare effects of changes in tax rates in a small open economy. I conduct the simulation in the context of an intertemporal utility maximization framework. I apply numerical methods to the model developed by Karayalcin. I introduce changes in the tax rates and quantify both the impact on welfare, consumption and foreign assets, and the path to the new steady-state values. The third chapter studies the role of stock markets and adjustment costs in the international transmission of supply shocks. The analysis of the transmission of a positive supply shock that originates in one of the countries shows that on impact the shock leads to an inmediate stock market boom enjoying the technological advance, while the other country suffers from depress stock market prices as demand for its equity declines. A period of adjustment begins culminating in a steady state capital and output level that is identical to the one before the shock. The the capital stock of one country undergoes a non-monotonic adjustment. The model is tested with plausible values of the variables and the numeric results confirm the predictions of the theory.

An Autoregressive Conditional Filtering Process to remove Intraday Seasonal Volatility and its Application to Testing the Noisy Rational Expectations Model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

Analysis of residuals in contingency tables: another nail in the coffin of conditional approaches to significance testing.

Omnibus tests of significance in contingency tables use statistics of the chi-square type. When the null is rejected, residual analyses are conducted to identify cells in which observed frequencies differ significantly from expected frequencies. Residual analyses are thus conditioned on a significant omnibus test. Conditional approaches have been shown to substantially alter type I error rates in cases involving t tests conditional on the results of a test of equality of variances, or tests of regression coefficients conditional on the results of tests of heteroscedasticity. We show that residual analyses conditional on a significant omnibus test are also affected by this problem, yielding type I error rates that can be up to 6 times larger than nominal rates, depending on the size of the table and the form of the marginal distributions. We explored several unconditional approaches in search for a method that maintains the nominal type I error rate and found out that a bootstrap correction for multiple testing achieved this goal. The validity of this approach is documented for two-way contingency tables in the contexts of tests of independence, tests of homogeneity, and fitting psychometric functions. Computer code in MATLAB and R to conduct these analyses is provided as Supplementary Material.

Bayesian estimation in generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models

Esta tesis doctoral nace con el propósito de entender, analizar y sobre todo modelizar el comportamiento estadístico de las series financieras. En este sentido, se puede afirmar que los modelos que mejor recogen las especiales características de estas series son los modelos de heterocedasticidad condicionada en tiempo discreto,si los intervalos de tiempo en los que se recogen los datos lo permiten, y en tiempo continuo si tenemos datos diarios o datos intradía. Con esta finalidad, en esta tesis se proponen distintos estimadores bayesianos para la estimación de los parámetros de los modelos GARCH en tiempo discreto (Bollerslev (1986)) y COGARCH en tiempo continuo (Kluppelberg et al. (2004)). En el capítulo 1 se introducen las características de las series financieras y se presentan los modelos ARCH, GARCH y COGARCH, así como sus principales propiedades. Mandelbrot (1963) destacó que las series financieras no presentan estacionariedad y que sus incrementos no presentan autocorrelación, aunque sus cuadrados sí están correlacionados. Señaló también que la volatilidad que presentan no es constante y que aparecen clusters de volatilidad. Observó la falta de normalidad de las series financieras, debida principalmente a su comportamiento leptocúrtico, y también destacó los efectos estacionales que presentan las series, analizando como se ven afectadas por la época del año o el día de la semana. Posteriormente Black (1976) completó la lista de características especiales incluyendo los denominados leverage effects relacionados con como las fluctuaciones positivas y negativas de los precios de los activos afectan a la volatilidad de las series de forma distinta.

Explaining intermittent exporting:exit and conditional re-entry in export markets

Intermittent exporting is something of a puzzle. In theory, exporting represents a major commitment, and is often the starting point for further internationalisation. However, intermittent exporters exit and subsequently re-enter exporting, sometimes frequently. We develop a conceptual model to explain how firm characteristics and market conditions interact to affect the decision to exit and re-enter exporting, and model this process using an extensive dataset of French manufacturing firms from 1997 to 2007. As anticipated, smaller and less productive firms are more likely to exit exporting, and react more strongly to changes in both domestic and foreign markets than larger firms. Exit and re-entry are closely linked. Firms with a low exit probability also have a high likelihood of re-entry, and vice versa. However, the way in which firms react to market conditions at the time of exit matters greatly in determining the likelihood of re-entry: thus re-entry depends crucially on the strategic rationale for exit. Our analysis helps explain the opportunistic and intermittent exporting of (mainly) small firms, the demand conditions under which intermittent exporting is most likely to occur, and the firm attributes most likely to give rise to such behavior.

Expectation Modulates Episodic Memory Formation via Dopaminergic Circuitry

Episodic memory formation is shaped by expectation. Events that generate expectations have the capacity to influence memory. Additionally, whether subsequent events meet or violate expectations has consequences for memory. However, clarification is still required to illuminate the circumstances and direction of memory modulation. In the brain, the mechanisms by which expectation modulates memory formation also require consideration. The dopamine system has been implicated in signaling events associated with different states of expectancy; it has also been shown to modulate episodic memory formation in the hippocampus. Thus, the studies included in this dissertation utilized both functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and behavioral testing to examine when and how the dopaminergic system supports the modulation of memory by expectation. The work aimed to characterize the activation of dopaminergic circuitry in response to cues that generate expectancy, during periods of anticipation, and in response to outcomes that resolve expectancy. The studies also examined how each of these event types influenced episodic memory formation. The present findings demonstrated that novelty and expectancy violation both drive dopaminergic circuitry capable of contributing to memory formation. Consistent with elevated dopaminergic midbrain and hippocampus activation for each, expected versus expectancy violating novelty did not differentially affect memory success. We also showed that high curiosity expectancy states drive memory formation. This was supported by activation in dopaminergic circuitry that was greater for subsequently remembered information only in the high curiosity state. Finally, we showed that cues that generate high expected reward value versus high reward uncertainty differentially modulate memory formation during reward anticipation. This behavioral result was consistent with distinct temporal profiles of dopaminergic action having differential downstream effects on episodic memory formation. Integrating the present studies with previous research suggests that dopaminergic circuitry signals events that are unpredicted, whether cuing or resolving expectations. It also suggests that contextual differences change the contribution of the dopaminergic system during anticipation, depending on the nature of the expectation. And finally, this work is consistent with a model in which dopamine elevation in response to expectancy events positively modulates episodic memory formation.

Rate Maximization of Decode-and-Forward Relaying Systems with RF Energy Harvesting

We consider a three-node decode-and-forward (DF) half-duplex relaying system, where the source first harvests RF energy from the relay, and then uses this energy to transmit information to the destination via the relay. We assume that the information transfer and wireless power transfer phases alternate over time in the same frequency band, and their time fraction (TF) may change or be fixed from one transmission epoch (fading state) to the next. For this system, we maximize the achievable average data rate. Thereby, we propose two schemes: (1) jointly optimal power and TF allocation, and (2) optimal power allocation with fixed TF. Due to the small amounts of harvested power at the source, the two schemes achieve similar information rates, but yield significant performance gains compared to a benchmark system with fixed power and fixed TF allocation.

Joint Information and Jamming Beamforming for Secrecy Rate Maximization in Cognitive Radio Networks

In this paper, we consider the secure beamforming design for an underlay cognitive radio multiple-input singleoutput broadcast channel in the presence of multiple passive eavesdroppers. Our goal is to design a jamming noise (JN) transmit strategy to maximize the secrecy rate of the secondary system. By utilizing the zero-forcing method to eliminate the interference caused by JN to the secondary user, we study the joint optimization of the information and JN beamforming for secrecy rate maximization of the secondary system while satisfying all the interference power constraints at the primary users, as well as the per-antenna power constraint at the secondary transmitter. For an optimal beamforming design, the original problem is a nonconvex program, which can be reformulated as a convex program by applying the rank relaxation method. To this end, we prove that the rank relaxation is tight and propose a barrier interior-point method to solve the resulting saddle point problem based on a duality result. To find the global optimal solution, we transform the considered problem into an unconstrained optimization problem. We then employ Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) method to solve the resulting unconstrained problem which helps reduce the complexity significantly, compared to conventional methods. Simulation results show the fast convergence of the proposed algorithm and substantial performance improvements over existing approaches.

Risque de prix et décisions de production et d'exportation : le cas de l'agriculture au Québec

Cette thèse porte sur l’effet du risque de prix sur la décision des agriculteurs et les transformateurs québécois. Elle se divise en trois chapitres. Le premier chapitre revient sur la littérature. Le deuxième chapitre examine l’effet du risque de prix sur la production de trois produits, à savoir le maïs grain, la viande de porc et la viande d’agneau dans la province Québec. Le dernier chapitre est centré sur l’analyse de changement des préférences du transformateur québécois de porc pour ce qui est du choix de marché. Le premier chapitre vise à montrer l’importance de l’effet du risque du prix sur la quantité produite par les agriculteurs, tel que mis en évidence par la littérature. En effet, la littérature révèle l’importance du risque de prix à l’exportation sur le commerce international. Le deuxième chapitre est consacré à l’étude des facteurs du risque (les anticipations des prix et la volatilité des prix) dans la fonction de l’offre. Un modèle d’hétéroscédasticité conditionnelle autorégressive généralisée (GARCH) est utilisé afin de modéliser ces facteurs du risque. Les paramètres du modèle sont estimés par la méthode de l’Information Complète Maximum Vraisemblance (FIML). Les résultats empiriques montrent l’effet négatif de la volatilité du prix sur la production alors que la prévisibilité des prix a un effet positif sur la quantité produite. Comme attendu, nous constatons que l’application du programme d’assurance-stabilisation des revenus agricoles (ASRA) au Québec induit une plus importante sensibilité de l’offre par rapport au prix effectif (le prix incluant la compensation de l’ASRA) que par rapport au prix du marché. Par ailleurs, l’offre est moins sensible au prix des intrants qu’au prix de l’output. La diminution de l’aversion au risque de producteur est une autre conséquence de l’application de ce programme. En outre, l’estimation de la prime marginale relative au risque révèle que le producteur du maïs est le producteur le moins averse au risque (comparativement à celui de porc ou d’agneau). Le troisième chapitre consiste en l’analyse du changement de préférence du transformateur québécois du porc pour ce qui est du choix de marché. Nous supposons que le transformateur a la possibilité de fournir les produits sur deux marchés : étranger et local. Le modèle théorique explique l’offre relative comme étant une fonction à la fois d’anticipation relative et de volatilité relative des prix. Ainsi, ce modèle révèle que la sensibilité de l’offre relative par rapport à la volatilité relative de prix dépend de deux facteurs : d’une part, la part de l’exportation dans la production totale et d’autre part, l’élasticité de substitution entre les deux marchés. Un modèle à correction d’erreurs est utilisé lors d’estimation des paramètres du modèle. Les résultats montrent l’effet positif et significatif de l’anticipation relative du prix sur l’offre relative à court terme. Ces résultats montrent donc qu’une hausse de la volatilité du prix sur le marché étranger par rapport à celle sur le marché local entraine une baisse de l’offre relative sur le marché étranger à long terme. De plus, selon les résultats, les marchés étranger et local sont plus substituables à long terme qu’à court terme.

A gestão da informação sob a luz do Enterprise Content Management (ECM): um estudo de caso em uma universidade pública

This work involves the organization and content perspectives on Enterprise Content Management (ECM) framework. The case study at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte was based on ECM model to analyse the information management provided by the three main administrative systems: The Integrated Management of Academic Activities (SIGAA), Integrated System of Inheritance, and Contracts Administration (SIPAC) and the Integrated System for Administration and Human Resources (SIGRH). A case study protocol was designed to provide greater reliability to research process. Four propositions were examined in order to reach the specific objectives of identification and evaluation of ECM components from UFRN perspective. The preliminary phase provided the guidelines for the data collection. In total, 75 individuals were interviewed. Interviews with four managers directly involved on systems design were recorded (average duration of 90 minutes). The 70 remaining individuals were approached in random way in UFRN s units, including teachers, administrative-technical employees and students. The results showed the presence of many ECM elements in the management of UFRN administrative information. The technological component with higher presence was "management of web content / collaboration". But initiatives of other components (e.g. email and document management) were found and are in continuous improvement. The assessment made use of eQual 4.0 to examine the effectiveness of applications under three factors: usability, quality of information and offered service. In general, the quality offered by the systems was very good and walk side by side with the obtained benefits of ECM strategy adoption in the context of the whole institution

Likelihood-Based Inference for Partially Observed Multi-Type Markov Branching Processes

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08