Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

The chemical control of the environmental weed basket asparagus (Asparagus aethiopicus L. cv. Sprengeri) in Queensland

A replicated trial to determine effective chemical control methods for the invasive species, basket asparagus (Asparagus aethiopicus L. cv. Sprengeri) was conducted at Currumbin Hill, Queensland, from June 1999 to August 2000. Four herbicides (metsulfuron-methyl, dicamba, glyphosate and diesel) were applied at different times of the year (winter, spring, summer and autumn). Neat diesel applied to adult crowns effectively killed basket asparagus. However, germination of basket asparagus and other weeds was not prevented. An overall spray of 0.06 g metsulfuron-methyl (0.1 g Brush-Off®) + 1 mL BS 1000® L-1 water gave slower but more selective long-term control of basket asparagus when compared to diesel, especially when applied in winter and spring. High rates of foliar applied dicamba were most effective in spring and glyphosate splatter gunned on base of stems in autumn. The combination of increased selectivity, ease of application and likelihood of reduced environmental impacts on native plants, other than coast she-oak (Casuarina equisetifolia L. var. incana Benth.), of metsulfuron-methyl makes it more suitable for controlling large infestations of basket asparagus.

Environmental regulation in the pork producing industry - bring on the research!

Over the last 20 years, environmental management in Queensland has moved from the policy backwaters of government to the front line of operations by way of regulatory enforcement, industry programs and incentives. When the new Queensland Environmental Protection Act 1994 (EPA) came into effect, the business of environmental management has become a central feature of urban and rural development activity. The concept of environmentally sustainable development (ESD), has given life to the precautionary principle as a way for planners and regulators to place relevant controls on development. The planning, development and operation of pig farming systems has been effected by the new regulatory framework. Ever more definitive standards and approval permits have emerged which endeavour to achieve ESD. With these modern planning instruments in place, rural industry sectors have become, quite legitimately, concerned about future opportunities for research and innovation. This paper asserts that the capacity to engage in research and to achieve innovation in the pork producing industry is not hindered by Queensland environmental regulation frameworks. However, in order for research and innovation to prosper within these frameworks, some protocols need to be followed by the industry. What is at stake is community confidence.

Validating economic and environmental sustainability of a short-term summer forage legume in dryland wheat cropping systems in south-west Queensland.

The present study set out to test the hypothesis through field and simulation studies that the incorporation of short-term summer legumes, particularly annual legume lablab (Lablab purpureus cv. Highworth), in a fallow-wheat cropping system will improve the overall economic and environmental benefits in south-west Queensland. Replicated, large plot experiments were established at five commercial properties by using their machineries, and two smaller plot experiments were established at two intensively researched sites (Roma and St George). A detailed study on various other biennial and perennial summer forage legumes in rotation with wheat and influenced by phosphorus (P) supply (10 and 40 kg P/ha) was also carried out at the two research sites. The other legumes were lucerne (Medicago sativa), butterfly pea (Clitoria ternatea) and burgundy bean (Macroptilium bracteatum). After legumes, spring wheat (Triticum aestivum) was sown into the legume stubble. The annual lablab produced the highest forage yield, whereas germination, establishment and production of other biennial and perennial legumes were poor, particularly in the red soil at St George. At the commercial sites, only lablab-wheat rotations were experimented, with an increased supply of P in subsurface soil (20 kg P/ha). The lablab grown at the commercial sites yielded between 3 and 6 t/ha forage yield over 2-3 month periods, whereas the following wheat crop with no applied fertiliser yielded between 0.5 to 2.5 t/ha. The wheat following lablab yielded 30% less, on average, than the wheat in a fallow plot, and the profitability of wheat following lablab was slightly higher than that of the wheat following fallow because of greater costs associated with fallow management. The profitability of the lablab-wheat phase was determined after accounting for the input costs and additional costs associated with the management of fallow and in-crop herbicide applications for a fallow-wheat system. The economic and environmental benefits of forage lablab and wheat cropping were also assessed through simulations over a long-term climatic pattern by using economic (PreCAPS) and biophysical (Agricultural Production Systems Simulation, APSIM) decision support models. Analysis of the long-term rainfall pattern (70% in summer and 30% in winter) and simulation studies indicated that ~50% time a wheat crop would not be planted or would fail to produce a profitable crop (grain yield less than 1 t/ha) because of less and unreliable rainfall in winter. Whereas forage lablab in summer would produce a profitable crop, with a forage yield of more than 3 t/ha, ~90% times. Only 14 wheat crops (of 26 growing seasons, i.e. 54%) were profitable, compared with 22 forage lablab (of 25 seasons, i.e. 90%). An opportunistic double-cropping of lablab in summer and wheat in winter is also viable and profitable in 50% of the years. Simulation studies also indicated that an opportunistic lablab-wheat cropping can reduce the potential runoff+drainage by more than 40% in the Roma region, leading to improved economic and environmental benefits.

A free-enzyme catalyst for the bioremediation of environmental atrazine contamination.

Herbicide contamination from agriculture is a major issue worldwide, and has been identified as a threat to freshwater and marine environments in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area in Australia. The triazine herbicides are of particular concern because of potential adverse effects, both on photosynthetic organisms and upon vertebrate development. To date a number of bioremediation strategies have been proposed for triazine herbicides, but are unlikely to be implemented due to their reliance upon the release of genetically modified organisms. We propose an alternative strategy using a free-enzyme bioremediant, which is unconstrained by the issues surrounding the use of live organisms. Here we report an initial field trial with an enzyme-based product, demonstrating that the technology is technically capable of remediating water bodies contaminated with the most common triazine herbicide, atrazine.

The environmental management of prawn farming in Queensland - worlds best practice

This article provides a summary of research undertaken during a seven-year study from 1995-2002 which focussed on prawn farm ecosystems, their ecological impacts, and cost-effective effluent treatment systems.

Integrated pond culture for improved production and environmental performance

This presentation given at the World Aquaculture conference in 2008 describes research undertaken at the Bribie Island Research Centre involving zero water exchange co-culture of whiting and banana prawns.

Warm-season greens grass trial - Environmental and management guidelines suited for new and old cultivars

The Horticulture Australia funded project, Management Guidelines for Warm-Season Grasses in Australia (TU05001), has allowed a detailed greens grass study to take place and enabled researchers and superintendents to work together to collect meaningful data on a range of Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers. x Cynodon transvaalensis Burtt-Davy (Cynodon hybrid) and Paspalum vaginatum O. Swartz (seashore paspalum) cultivars suitable for golf or lawn bowls use. The end result provides superintendents and greenkeepers with additional knowledge to accompany their skills in managing or upgrading their greens to produce a denser, smoother and faster putting or bowls surface. However, neither turfgrass selection nor finely tuned management program will overcome unrealistic expectations (especially in relation to usage), poor growing environments, or limitations due to improper construction techniques.

Toxicity of dioxin to developing teeth and salivary glands : An experimental study

Dioxins are ubiquitous environmental poisons having unequivocal adverse health effects on various species. The majority of their effects are thought to be mediated by the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR). Developing human teeth may be sensitive to dioxins and the most toxic dioxin congener, 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), is developmentally toxic to rodent teeth. Mechanisms of TCDD toxicity can be studied only experimentally. The aim of the present thesis work was to delineate morphological end points of developmental toxicity of TCDD in rat and mouse teeth and salivary glands in vivo and in vitro and to characterize their cellular and molecular background. Mouse embryonic teeth and submandibular gland explants were grown in organ culture without/with TCDD at various concentrations, examined stereomicroscopically and processed for histological examination. The effects of TCDD on cellular mechanisms essential for organogenesis were investigated. The expression of various genes eliciting the response to TCDD exposure or involved in tooth and salivary gland development was studied at the mRNA and/or protein levels by in situ hybridization and immunohistochemistry. Association of the dental effects of TCDD with the resistance of a rat strain to TCDD acute lethality was analyzed in two lactationally exposed rat strains. The effect of TCDD on rat molar tooth mineralization was studied in tissue sections. TCDD dose- and developmental stage-dependently interfered with tooth formation. TCDD prevented early mouse molar tooth morphogenesis and altered cuspal morphology by enhancing programmend cell death, or apoptosis, in dental epithelial cells programmed to undergo apotosis. Cell proliferation was not affected. TCDD impaired mineralization of rat molar dental matrices, possibly by specifically reducing the expression of the mineralization-related dentin sialophosphoprotein gene shown in cultured mouse teeth. The impaired mineralization of rat teeth was accompanied by decreased expression of AhR and the TCDD-inducible xenobiotic-metabolozing enzyme P4501 A1 (CYP1A1), suggesting mediation of the TCDD effect by the AhR pathway. The severe interference by TCDD with rat incisor formation was independent of the genotypic variation of AhR determining the resistance of a rat strain to TCDD acute lethality. The impairment by TCDD of mouse submandibular gland branching morphogenesis was associated with CYP1A1 induction and involved blockage of EGF receptor signalling. In conclusion, TCDD exposure is likely to have activated the AhR pathway in target organs with the consequent activation of other signalling pathways involving developmentally regulated genes. The resultant phenotype is organ specific and modified by epithelial-mesenchymal interactions and dependent on dose as well as the stage of organogenesis at the time of TCDD exposure. Teeth appear to be responsive to TCDD exposure throughout their development.

Linking the populations of barramundi and king threadfin to environmental flows in four rivers of tropical Australia

Linking the populations of barramundi and king threadfin to environmental flows in four rivers of tropical Australia

The navigation and visualisation of environmental audio using zooming spectrograms

Acoustic recordings play an increasingly important role in monitoring terrestrial and aquatic environments. However, rapid advances in technology make it possible to accumulate thousands of hours of recordings, more than ecologists can ever listen to. Our approach to this big-data challenge is to visualize the content of long-duration audio recordings on multiple scales, from minutes, hours, days to years. The visualization should facilitate navigation and yield ecologically meaningful information prior to listening to the audio. To construct images, we calculate acoustic indices, statistics that describe the distribution of acoustic energy and reflect content of ecological interest. We combine various indices to produce false-color spectrogram images that reveal acoustic content and facilitate navigation. The technical challenge we investigate in this work is how to navigate recordings that are days or even months in duration. We introduce a method of zooming through multiple temporal scales, analogous to Google Maps. However, the “landscape” to be navigated is not geographical and not therefore intrinsically visual, but rather a graphical representation of the underlying audio. We describe solutions to navigating spectrograms that range over three orders of magnitude of temporal scale. We make three sets of observations: 1. We determine that at least ten intermediate scale steps are required to zoom over three orders of magnitude of temporal scale; 2. We determine that three different visual representations are required to cover the range of temporal scales; 3. We present a solution to the problem of maintaining visual continuity when stepping between different visual representations. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of the approach with four case studies.

Impact of Tobacco Control Policy on Smoking and Exposure to Environmental Tobacco Smoke

The aim of the study was to evaluate the impact of the Finnish tobacco control measures for reduction of smoking. First, the trends and patterns in ever smoking among adult Finns in 1978 2001 as well as the associations of trends with the Tobacco Control Act in 1976 were examined. Secondly, the impact of the 1976 TCA on the proportion of ever daily smokers in different socioeconomic groups was studied. Thirdly, the impact of the 1995 TCAA on recent trends in the prevalence of daily smoking was evaluated by gender and employment status. Fourthly, the trends of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) at workplaces and homes were investigated. The study is based on data of the Health Behaviour among the Finnish Adult Population surveys. Among Finnish men smoking initiation declined from earlier to later cohorts, whereas among women it increased in successive birth cohorts born before 1956. The lasting differences between birth cohorts as regards ever daily smoking reflected well the impact of measures to reduce smoking in Finland in 1976. Smoking initiation in the birth cohorts (born in 1961 or later) which were in critical age as regards the risk of smoking initiation when the TCA came into force was less common than could be expected according to the trends seen in the earlier birth cohorts. Marked socioeconomic differences were found in smoking in the different birth cohorts. Smoking was more prevalent in the lower socioeconomic groups than in the higher ones, and the differences were larger in the later birth cohorts compared to the earlier ones. The differences between the birth cohorts in ever daily smoking were compatible with the hypothetical impact of the TCA in almost all socioeconomic groups, except farmers. Among men the 1976 TCA appears to have had the greatest impact on white-collar employees. Among women the effect of the act was highly significant in all socioeconomic groups. However, female smoking prevalence continues to show wide socioeconomic disparities. Daily smoking decreased among employees after the 1995 TCAA, supporting the hypothesis of the lowering impact of the amendment on daily smoking due to increased smoking cessation. No parallel change in daily smoking was found in the population without direct expose to ETS legislation (farmers, students, housewives, pensioners or unemployed). Exposure to ETS decreased markedly among non-smokers at work after the 1995 TCAA. The 1976 TCA and the 1995 TCAA were useful in controlling smoking initiation and cessation, but their impact was not equal across the population groups. The results of this study strongly suggested that tobacco control policies markedly contribute to the decrease in smoking and in exposure to environmental tobacco smoke.

Environmental effects of vegetable production on sensitive waterways

This project investigates the impact of vegetable production systems on sensitive waterways focusing on the risk of off-site nutrient movement at farm block scale under current management practices. The project establishes a series of case studies in two environmentally important Queensland catchments and conducts a broader survey of partial nutrient budgets across tropical vegetable production. It will deliver tools to growers that can improve fertiliser use efficiency delivering profitability and environmental improvements.

Community forestry and environmental literacy in northern Thailand : Towards collaborative natural resource management and conservation

Conservation and sustainable management of tropical forests needs a holistic approach: in addition to ecological concerns, socio-economic issues including cultural aspects must be taken into consideration. An ability to adapt practices is a key to successful collaborative natural resource management. Achieving this requires local participation and understanding of local conceptions of the environment. This study examined these issues in the context of northern Thailand. Northern uplands are the home of much of the remaining natural forest in Thailand and several ethnic minority groups commonly referred to as hill tribes. The overall purpose of this study was to grasp a regional view of an ethnically diverse forested area and to elicit prospects to develop community forestry for conservation purposes and for securing people s livelihood. Conservation was a central goal of management as the forests in the area were largely designated as protected. The aim was to study local perceptions, objectives, values and practices of forest management, under the umbrella of the concept environmental literacy, as well as the effects of forest policy on community management goals and activities. Environmental literacy refers to holistic understanding of the environment. It was used as a tool to examine people s views, interests, knowledge and motivation associated to forests. The material for this study was gathered in six villages in Chiang Mai Province. Three minority groups were included in the study, the Karen, Hmong and Lawa, and also the Thai. Household and focus group interviews were conducted in the villages. In addition, officials at district, regional and national levels, workers of non-governmental organisations, and academics were interviewed, and some data were gathered from the students of a local school. The results showed that motivation for protecting the forests existed among each ethnic group studied. This was a result of culture and traditions evolved in the forest environment but also of a need to adapt to a changed situation and environment and to outside pressures. The consequences of deforestation were widely agreed on in the villages, and the impact of socio-economic changes on the forests and livelihood was also recognised. The forest was regarded as a source of livelihood providing land, products and services essential to the people inhabiting rural uplands. Traditions, fire control, cooperation, reforestation, separation of protected and utilisable areas, and rules were viewed as central for conservation. For the villagers, however, conservation meant sustainable use, whereas the government has tended to prefer strict restrictions on forest resource use. Thus, conflicts had arisen. Between communities, cooperation was more dominant than conflict. The results indicated that the heterogeneity of forest dwellers, although it has to be recognised, should not be overemphasised: ethnic diversity can be considered as no major obstacle for successful community forestry. Collaborative management is particularly important in protected areas in order to meet the conservation goals while providing opportunities for livelihood. Forest management needs more positive incentives and increased dialogue.