Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult to achieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave in a way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It has been shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared with all-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approach of using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Since these values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbing state), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements as well as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison (1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that the unit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrement mortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed in compositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortality by cause of death for Japan

Recognition of static and dynamic facial expressions: Influences of sex, type and intensity of emotion

Ecological validity of static and intense facial expressions in emotional recognition has been questioned. Recent studies have recommended the use of facial stimuli more compatible to the natural conditions of social interaction, which involves motion and variations in emotional intensity. In this study, we compared the recognition of static and dynamic facial expressions of happiness, fear, anger and sadness, presented in four emotional intensities (25 %, 50 %, 75 % and 100 %). Twenty volunteers (9 women and 11 men), aged between 19 and 31 years, took part in the study. The experiment consisted of two sessions in which participants had to identify the emotion of static (photographs) and dynamic (videos) displays of facial expressions on the computer screen. The mean accuracy was submitted to an Anova for repeated measures of model: 2 sexes x [2 conditions x 4 expressions x 4 intensities]. We observed an advantage for the recognition of dynamic expressions of happiness and fear compared to the static stimuli (p < .05). Analysis of interactions showed that expressions with intensity of 25 % were better recognized in the dynamic condition (p < .05). The addition of motion contributes to improve recognition especially in male participants (p < .05). We concluded that the effect of the motion varies as a function of the type of emotion, intensity of the expression and sex of the participant. These results support the hypothesis that dynamic stimuli have more ecological validity and are more appropriate to the research with emotions.

Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

Emotion and relationships.

Forma parte de una serie que estudia la relación entre el arte y temas, situaciones, sentimientos e ideas que han alcanzado gran relevancia universal a lo largo de diferentes épocas y culturas y que se ha plasmado en manifestaciones como la fotografía, la pintura, la escultura, los textiles y el cine. Ayuda a saber interpretar las obras y estilos artísticos y entender el momento histórico en que fueron creados. Este volumen se centra en las emociones, sueños, pesadillas y fantasías vividos por los hombres de todos los tiempos y de todos los países, sus relaciones familiares, entre los amantes, o entre los individuos, y el mundo que les rodea y que han inspirado a muchos artistas.

Beliefs about the effects of social sharing of emotion in alexithymia

Resumen tomado de la publicación

Factor structure and measurement invariance of the Difficulties Emotion Regulation Scale (DERS) in Spanish adolescents

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Enhancing emotion-based learning in decision-making under uncertainty

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Emotion recognition in multiple sclerosis

The effect of multiple sclerosis (MS) on the ability to identify emotional expressions in faces was investigated, and possible associations with patients’ characteristics were explored. 56 non-demented MS patients and 56 healthy subjects (HS) with similar demographic characteristics performed an emotion recognition task (ERT), the Benton Facial Recognition Test (BFRT), and answered the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Additionally, MS patients underwent a neurological examination and a comprehensive neuropsychological evaluation. The ERT consisted of 42 pictures of faces (depicting anger, disgust, fear, happiness, sadness, surprise and neutral expressions) from the NimStim set. An iViewX high-speed eye tracker was used to record eye movements during ERT. The fixation times were calculated for two regions of interest (i.e., eyes and rest of the face). No significant differences were found between MS and HC on ERT’s behavioral and oculomotor measures. Bivariate and multiple regression analyses revealed significant associations between ERT’s behavioral performance and demographic, clinical, psychopathological, and cognitive measures.

Emotion perception in pre-kindergarten school children at Central Institute for the Deaf

This paper studies the ability of pre-kindergarten students with both normal hearing and impaired hearing to identify emotions in speech through audition only. In addition, the study assesses whether a listener's familiarity with a speaker's voice has an effect on his/her ability to identify the emotion of the speaker.

Emotion perception in speech: Discrimination, identification, and the effects of talker and sentence variability

The primary goal of this project is to study the ability of adult cochlear implant users to perceive emotion through speech alone. A secondary goal of this project is to study the development of emotion perception in normal hearing children to serve as a baseline for comparing emotion perception abilities in similarly-aged children with impaired hearing.

Recognizing emotion in illustrations and photographs: Comparing responses of children who are deaf or hard of hearing with those of children with normal hearing

Recognizing emotions are something children do everyday, whether it is identifying that mom is sad because she lost her job or that a character in a story is mad because no one will listen to him. The purpose of this study is to find out if recognizing emotions is easier to do with realistic photographs or illustrations.

Annual textural banding in Holocene estuarine silts, Severn Estuary Levels (SW Britain): patterns, cause and implications

A high-resolution textural study has been made of laminated and banded estuarine silts exposed intertidally at representative localities and horizons in the Holocene deposits of the Severn Estuary Levels. The laminae, on a submillimetre to millimetre scale, are sharp-based, graded couplets formed of a lower silty part overlain by a finer-textured clayey element. The centimetre- to decimetre-scale banding is formed of laminae in alternating, gradually intergrading sets of relatively coarse and relative fine-grained examples. At outcrop in the field, the banding is recognizable because the coarse sets prove to be recessive to varying degrees under the influence of weathering and current action. Independent evidence at two localities points toward an annual origin for the banding; at a third it arose during part of what appears to have been a relatively short period. Quantified physical arguments suggest that the textural banding is a response of suspended fine sediment to marked seasonal changes in sea temperature and windiness. The banded silts occur in four distinct stratigraphical contexts and record high deposition rates (order 0.01-0.1 m/yr). Because physical factors determine their textures, the silts potentially afford insights in all contexts into aspects of changing Holocene climatic conditions. In one context, the thickness of the bands points to high (order 0.01-0.1 m/yr) but comparatively short-lived (order 10s-100s yrs) rates of relative water-level rise. In the others, however, the banding has no implications for sea-level behaviour, and simply records gross environmental disequilibrium, for example, the recovery of mudflats/marshes after an erosional episode. Similarly, because on account of their rapid accumulation the banded silts preserve animal and human tracks and trackways especially well, they provide an archive of animal and human behaviour in the area during the Holocene.