A new approach to spatial data interpolation using higher-order statistics

Interpolation techniques for spatial data have been applied frequently in various fields of geosciences. Although most conventional interpolation methods assume that it is sufficient to use first- and second-order statistics to characterize random fields, researchers have now realized that these methods cannot always provide reliable interpolation results, since geological and environmental phenomena tend to be very complex, presenting non-Gaussian distribution and/or non-linear inter-variable relationship. This paper proposes a new approach to the interpolation of spatial data, which can be applied with great flexibility. Suitable cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics are developed to measure the spatial relationship between the random variable at an unsampled location and those in its neighbourhood. Given the computed cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics, the conditional probability density function (CPDF) is approximated via polynomial expansions, which is then utilized to determine the interpolated value at the unsampled location as an expectation. In addition, the uncertainty associated with the interpolation is quantified by constructing prediction intervals of interpolated values. The proposed method is applied to a mineral deposit dataset, and the results demonstrate that it outperforms kriging methods in uncertainty quantification. The introduction of the cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics noticeably improves the quality of the interpolation since it enriches the information that can be extracted from the observed data, and this benefit is substantial when working with data that are sparse or have non-trivial dependence structures.

Poverty by acronym in Australia : welcome to CIM, VIM, PBIM, CPIM and SEAM

This paper discusses Compulsory Income Management (CIM) in Australia and the implications of technology backed forms of surveillance and increasingly conditional benefit payments. The CIM project raises important questions about requiring people to take greater responsibility for their personal behaviour when they no longer have control over key financial aspects of their lives. Some Indigenous communities have resisted the BasicsCard, because CIM was imposed with little prior consultation or subsequent independent evaluation. The compulsory income management of individuals by a paternalist welfare state contradicts and undermines the purported policy aims that they become less welfare dependent and more positively engaged with the world of paid employment and does little to address the growing condition of poverty in Australia.

Combining opinions for use in Bayesian networks: A measurement error approach

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical probabilistic models used for reasoning under uncertainty. These models are becoming increasing popular in a range of fields including ecology, computational biology, medical diagnosis, and forensics. In most of these cases, the BNs are quantified using information from experts, or from user opinions. An interest therefore lies in the way in which multiple opinions can be represented and used in a BN. This paper proposes the use of a measurement error model to combine opinions for use in the quantification of a BN. The multiple opinions are treated as a realisation of measurement error and the model uses the posterior probabilities ascribed to each node in the BN which are computed from the prior information given by each expert. The proposed model addresses the issues associated with current methods of combining opinions such as the absence of a coherent probability model, the lack of the conditional independence structure of the BN being maintained, and the provision of only a point estimate for the consensus. The proposed model is applied an existing Bayesian Network and performed well when compared to existing methods of combining opinions.

Incentivising tenants to stay the term – will clawbacks be enforceable?

Incentives are commonly offered by commercial landlords to tenants in the form of short term rent deductions or contributions to the tenant’s fitout. Usually these incentives are conditional upon the lessee remaining in the premises for the term of the lease with an obligation on the tenant to repay a proportion of the fitout contribution and rent deductions upon early termination or assignment. While the enforceability of clawback provisions has always been unclear, there was commercial benefit to landlords in maintaining high rentals on the face of the lease and attracting good quality tenants through fitout contributions. The use of clawback provisions as part of these incentives was recently analysed by the Queensland Supreme Court through the lens of the penalties doctrine in GWC Property Group Pty Ltd v Higginson & Ors [2014] QSC 264, with a negative outcome for the landlord. Unless the decision is overturned on appeal, the salient message for landlords is that repayment of incentives for any reason, not just a breach of the lease, is unlikely to be enforceable.

Weather variability and influenza A (H7N9) transmission in Shanghai, China: A Bayesian spatial analysis

Abstract Background A novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first found in humans in Shanghai, and infected over 433 patients in China. To date, very little is known about the spatiotemporal variability or environmental drivers of the risk of H7N9 infection. This study explored the spatial and temporal variation of H7N9 infection and assessed the effects of temperature and rainfall on H7N9 incidence. Methods A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of the risk of H7N9 infection in Shanghai, by district and fortnight for the period 19th February–14th April 2013. Data on daily laboratory-confirmed H7N9 cases, and weather variability including temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention and Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively, and aggregated by fortnight. Results High spatial variations in the H7N9 risk were mainly observed in the east and centre of Shanghai municipality. H7N9 incidence rate was significantly associated with fortnightly mean temperature (Relative Risk (RR): 1.54; 95% credible interval (CI): 1.22–1.94) and fortnightly mean rainfall (RR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.47–5.56). Conclusion There was a substantial variation in the spatiotemporal distribution of H7N9 infection across different districts in Shanghai. Optimal temperature and rainfall may be one of the driving forces for H7N9.

Socio-environmental drivers and suicide in Australia: Bayesian spatial analysis

Background The impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide has been examined in many studies. Few of them, however, have explored these associations from a spatial perspective, especially in assessing the association between meteorological factors and suicide. This study examined the association of meteorological and socio-demographic factors with suicide across small areas over different time periods. Methods Suicide, population and socio-demographic data (e.g., population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (ATSI), and unemployment rate (UNE) at the Local Government Area (LGA) level were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period of 1986 to 2005. Information on meteorological factors (rainfall, temperature and humidity) was supplied by Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) Model was applied to explore the association of socio-demographic and meteorological factors with suicide across LGAs. Results In Model I (socio-demographic factors), proportion of ATSI and UNE were positively associated with suicide from 1996 to 2000 (Relative Risk (RR)ATSI = 1.0107, 95% Credible Interval (CI): 1.0062-1.0151; RRUNE = 1.0187, 95% CI: 1.0060-1.0315), and from 2001 to 2005 (RRATSI = 1.0126, 95% CI: 1.0076-1.0176; RRUNE = 1.0198, 95% CI: 1.0041-1.0354). Socio-Economic Index for Area (SEIFA) and IND, however, had negative associations with suicide between 1986 and 1990 (RRSEIFA = 0.9983, 95% CI: 0.9971-0.9995; RRATSI = 0.9914, 95% CI: 0.9848-0.9980). Model II (meteorological factors): a 1°C higher yearly mean temperature across LGAs increased the suicide rate by an average by 2.27% (95% CI: 0.73%, 3.82%) in 1996–2000, and 3.24% (95% CI: 1.26%, 5.21%) in 2001–2005. The associations between socio-demographic factors and suicide in Model III (socio-demographic and meteorological factors) were similar to those in Model I; but, there is no substantive association between climate and suicide in Model III. Conclusions Proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, unemployment and temperature appeared to be statistically associated with of suicide incidence across LGAs among all selected variables, especially in recent years. The results indicated that socio-demographic factors played more important roles than meteorological factors in the spatial pattern of suicide incidence.

Fine-mapping of the HNF1B multicancer locus identifies candidate variants that mediate endometrial cancer risk

Common variants in the hepatocyte nuclear factor 1 homeobox B (HNF1B) gene are associated with the risk of Type II diabetes and multiple cancers. Evidence to date indicates that cancer risk may be mediated via genetic or epigenetic effects on HNF1B gene expression. We previously found single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at the HNF1B locus to be associated with endometrial cancer, and now report extensive fine-mapping and in silico and laboratory analyses of this locus. Analysis of 1184 genotyped and imputed SNPs in 6608 Caucasian cases and 37 925 controls, and 895 Asian cases and 1968 controls, revealed the best signal of association for SNP rs11263763 (P = 8.4 × 10−14, odds ratio = 0.86, 95% confidence interval = 0.82–0.89), located within HNF1B intron 1. Haplotype analysis and conditional analyses provide no evidence of further independent endometrial cancer risk variants at this locus. SNP rs11263763 genotype was associated with HNF1B mRNA expression but not with HNF1B methylation in endometrial tumor samples from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Genetic analyses prioritized rs11263763 and four other SNPs in high-to-moderate linkage disequilibrium as the most likely causal SNPs. Three of these SNPs map to the extended HNF1B promoter based on chromatin marks extending from the minimal promoter region. Reporter assays demonstrated that this extended region reduces activity in combination with the minimal HNF1B promoter, and that the minor alleles of rs11263763 or rs8064454 are associated with decreased HNF1B promoter activity. Our findings provide evidence for a single signal associated with endometrial cancer risk at the HNF1B locus, and that risk is likely mediated via altered HNF1B gene expression.

On the benefits of equicorrelation for portfolio allocation

The importance of modelling correlation has long been recognised in the field of portfolio management, with largedimensional multivariate problems increasingly becoming the focus of research. This paper provides a straightforward and commonsense approach toward investigating a number of models used to generate forecasts of the correlation matrix for large-dimensional problems.We find evidence in favour of assuming equicorrelation across various portfolio sizes, particularly during times of crisis. During periods of market calm, however, the suitability of the constant conditional correlation model cannot be discounted, especially for large portfolios. A portfolio allocation problem is used to compare forecasting methods. The global minimum variance portfolio and Model Confidence Set are used to compare methods, while portfolio weight stability and relative economic value are also considered.

RuleOMS: A rule-based online management system

We propose an architecture for a rule-based online management systems (RuleOMS). Typically, many domain areas face the problem that stakeholders maintain databases of their business core information and they have to take decisions or create reports according to guidelines, policies or regulations. To address this issue we propose the integration of databases, in particular relational databases, with a logic reasoner and rule engine. We argue that defeasible logic is an appropriate formalism to model rules, in particular when the rules are meant to model regulations. The resulting RuleOMS provides an efficient and flexible solution to the problem at hand using defeasible inference. A case study of an online child care management system is used to illustrate the proposed architecture.

Active learning: A step towards automating medical concept extraction

Objective This paper presents an automatic active learning-based system for the extraction of medical concepts from clinical free-text reports. Specifically, (1) the contribution of active learning in reducing the annotation effort, and (2) the robustness of incremental active learning framework across different selection criteria and datasets is determined. Materials and methods The comparative performance of an active learning framework and a fully supervised approach were investigated to study how active learning reduces the annotation effort while achieving the same effectiveness as a supervised approach. Conditional Random Fields as the supervised method, and least confidence and information density as two selection criteria for active learning framework were used. The effect of incremental learning vs. standard learning on the robustness of the models within the active learning framework with different selection criteria was also investigated. Two clinical datasets were used for evaluation: the i2b2/VA 2010 NLP challenge and the ShARe/CLEF 2013 eHealth Evaluation Lab. Results The annotation effort saved by active learning to achieve the same effectiveness as supervised learning is up to 77%, 57%, and 46% of the total number of sequences, tokens, and concepts, respectively. Compared to the Random sampling baseline, the saving is at least doubled. Discussion Incremental active learning guarantees robustness across all selection criteria and datasets. The reduction of annotation effort is always above random sampling and longest sequence baselines. Conclusion Incremental active learning is a promising approach for building effective and robust medical concept extraction models, while significantly reducing the burden of manual annotation.

External knowledge and query strategies in active learning: A study in clinical information extraction

This paper presents a new active learning query strategy for information extraction, called Domain Knowledge Informativeness (DKI). Active learning is often used to reduce the amount of annotation effort required to obtain training data for machine learning algorithms. A key component of an active learning approach is the query strategy, which is used to iteratively select samples for annotation. Knowledge resources have been used in information extraction as a means to derive additional features for sample representation. DKI is, however, the first query strategy that exploits such resources to inform sample selection. To evaluate the merits of DKI, in particular with respect to the reduction in annotation effort that the new query strategy allows to achieve, we conduct a comprehensive empirical comparison of active learning query strategies for information extraction within the clinical domain. The clinical domain was chosen for this work because of the availability of extensive structured knowledge resources which have often been exploited for feature generation. In addition, the clinical domain offers a compelling use case for active learning because of the necessary high costs and hurdles associated with obtaining annotations in this domain. Our experimental findings demonstrated that 1) amongst existing query strategies, the ones based on the classification model’s confidence are a better choice for clinical data as they perform equally well with a much lighter computational load, and 2) significant reductions in annotation effort are achievable by exploiting knowledge resources within active learning query strategies, with up to 14% less tokens and concepts to manually annotate than with state-of-the-art query strategies.

Miami heat: Patent law, informed consent and benefit-sharing

This article considers whether the granting of patents in respect of biomedical genetic research should be conditional upon the informed consent of research participants. It focuses upon several case studies. In Moore v the Regents of the University Of California, a patient sued his physician for breach of fiduciary duty and lack of informed consent, because the doctor had obtained a patent on the patient's cell line, without the patient's authorisation. In Greenberg v Miami Children's Hospital, the research participants, the Greenbergs, the National Tay Sachs and Allied Diseases Association, and Dor Yeshorim brought a legal action against the geneticist Reubon Matalon and the Miami Children's Hospital over a patent obtained on a gene related to the Canavan disease and accompany genetic diagnostic test. PXE International entered into a joint venture with Charles Boyd and the University of Hawaii, and obtained a patent together for ‘methods for diagnosing Pseudoxanthoma elasticum’. In light of such case studies, it is contended that there is a need to reform patent law, so as to recognise the bioethical principles of informed consent and benefit-sharing. The 2005 UNESCO Declaration on Bioethics and Human Rights provides a model for future case law and policy-making.

Comparing multilevel and Bayesian spatial random effects survival models to assess geographical inequalities in colorectal cancer survival: a case study

Background Multilevel and spatial models are being increasingly used to obtain substantive information on area-level inequalities in cancer survival. Multilevel models assume independent geographical areas, whereas spatial models explicitly incorporate geographical correlation, often via a conditional autoregressive prior. However the relative merits of these methods for large population-based studies have not been explored. Using a case-study approach, we report on the implications of using multilevel and spatial survival models to study geographical inequalities in all-cause survival. Methods Multilevel discrete-time and Bayesian spatial survival models were used to study geographical inequalities in all-cause survival for a population-based colorectal cancer cohort of 22,727 cases aged 20–84 years diagnosed during 1997–2007 from Queensland, Australia. Results Both approaches were viable on this large dataset, and produced similar estimates of the fixed effects. After adding area-level covariates, the between-area variability in survival using multilevel discrete-time models was no longer significant. Spatial inequalities in survival were also markedly reduced after adjusting for aggregated area-level covariates. Only the multilevel approach however, provided an estimation of the contribution of geographical variation to the total variation in survival between individual patients. Conclusions With little difference observed between the two approaches in the estimation of fixed effects, multilevel models should be favored if there is a clear hierarchical data structure and measuring the independent impact of individual- and area-level effects on survival differences is of primary interest. Bayesian spatial analyses may be preferred if spatial correlation between areas is important and if the priority is to assess small-area variations in survival and map spatial patterns. Both approaches can be readily fitted to geographically enabled survival data from international settings

Missing in space: An evaluation of imputation methods for missing data in spatial analysis of risk factors for type II diabetes

Background Spatial analysis is increasingly important for identifying modifiable geographic risk factors for disease. However, spatial health data from surveys are often incomplete, ranging from missing data for only a few variables, to missing data for many variables. For spatial analyses of health outcomes, selection of an appropriate imputation method is critical in order to produce the most accurate inferences. Methods We present a cross-validation approach to select between three imputation methods for health survey data with correlated lifestyle covariates, using as a case study, type II diabetes mellitus (DM II) risk across 71 Queensland Local Government Areas (LGAs). We compare the accuracy of mean imputation to imputation using multivariate normal and conditional autoregressive prior distributions. Results Choice of imputation method depends upon the application and is not necessarily the most complex method. Mean imputation was selected as the most accurate method in this application. Conclusions Selecting an appropriate imputation method for health survey data, after accounting for spatial correlation and correlation between covariates, allows more complete analysis of geographic risk factors for disease with more confidence in the results to inform public policy decision-making.