Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ethics and health systems research in 'post'-conflict situations

Although considerable attention has been given to ethical issues related to clinical research in developing countries, in particular related to HIV therapy, there has been limited focus on health systems research, despite its increasing importance in the light of current trends in development assistance. This paper examines ethical issues related to health systems research in 'post'-conflict situations, addressing both generic issues for developing countries and those issues specific to 'post'-conflict societies, citing examples from the author's Cambodian experience. It argues that the destruction of health infrastructure results in a loss of structures and processes that would otherwise protect prospective research subjects who are part of vulnerable populations. It identifies the growth of health systems research as part of a trend towards sectoral and programmatic development assistance, the emergence of 'knowledge generation' as a form of research linked to development, and the potential for conflict where multilateral and bilateral donors are both primary funders and users of health systems research. It also examines the position of the health system researcher in relation to the sponsors of this research, and the health system being analysed.

Responding to interpersonal and physically provoking situations in classrooms: emotional intensity in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

The present research investigated the emotional functioning of children with and without Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), in order to examine the relationships between emotional intensity and classroom-based responses to physically and interpersonally provoking situations. Seventy children (35 with ADHD and 35 without ADHD) in Years 3–8 participated and were matched on age, gender, grade, and school class. Each child was observed individually in the classroom over two 20-min periods. The Responses to Interpersonal and Physically Provoking Situations Observation Schedule was used to record the frequency and severity of responses and the triggers for these during the observational periods. Children later rated their emotional intensity in response to hypothetical scenarios on the Emotional Intensity Scale for Children. Results revealed children with ADHD displayed significantly more frequent and severe challenging and solitary off-task behaviours, and significantly more frequent vocalisations and severe interactional off-task behaviours. For triggers, environmental and teacher-initiated distractions were significantly more frequently observed in children with ADHD. There were no differences in ratings of emotional intensity between children with and without ADHD, although a number of significant and meaningful correlations were observed between positive emotional intensity scores and responses and triggers.

Sales force social exchange in problem resolution situations

While sales managers spend much of their time resolving sales force-related problems, existing theory offers little insight into the social exchange processes which occur in problem resolution situations. Using a qualitative inquiry method rooted in grounded theory, we uncover three key social exchange contributions used by sales managers when dealing with problem situations in the sales force: sales manager responsiveness, caring, and aggressiveness. We then show that the extent to which managers use these exchange contributions in problem situations is a function of manager characteristics, problem-specific characteristics, and the situational context. We also show that the extent to which managers invest in these three social exchange contributions has implications for the quality for the interpersonal relationships between salespeople and their managers, and for the effectiveness of problem resolution activity.

Majority versus minority influence:the role of message processing in determining resistance to counter-persuasion

Two experiments examined the extent to which attitudes changed following majority and minority influence are resistant to counter-persuasion. In both experiments participants' attitudes were measured after being exposed to two messages, delayed in time, which argued opposite positions (initial message and counter-message). In the first experiment, attitudes following minority endorsement of the initial message were more resistant to a second counter-message only when the initial message contained strong versus weak arguments. Attitudes changed following majority influence did not resist the second counter-message and returned to their pre-test level. Experiment 2 varied whether memory was warned (i.e., message recipients expected to recall the message) or not, to manipulate message processing. When memory was warned, which should increase message processing, attitudes changed following both majority and minority influence resisted the second counter-message. The results support the view that minority influence instigates systematic processing of its arguments, leading to attitudes that resist counter-persuasion. Attitudes formed following majority influence yield to counter-persuasion unless there is a secondary task that encourages message processing.

Drying of portland cement raw material slurries:predicting the performance of a counter-current spray drier

An extensive review of literature has been carried out concerning the drying of single drops, sprays of droplets and the prediction of spray drier performances. The experimental investigation has been divided into two broad parts mainly: (1) Single Drop Experiments, and (2) Spray Drying and Residence Time Distribution Experiments. The thermal conductivity of slurry cakes from five different sources have been experimentally determined using a modified Lee's Disc Apparatus and the data collected was correlated by the polynominal... Good agreement was observed between the experimental thermal conductivity values and the predicted ones. The fit gave a variance ... for the various samples experimented on. A mathematical model for estimating crust mass transfer coefficient at high drying temperatures was derived.

Assessing risk in dynamic situations:lessons from fire service operations

Fire Service personnel face risk on a daily basis, frequently working in extremely hazardous conditions—and the severity of the danger faced can fluctuate rapidly. The Fire Service has therefore become extremely experienced at managing dynamic risks. The aim of this article is to review techniques used in the UK fire service to attenuate the effects of risk and to discuss these with respect to organisations which experience dynamic risk in other fields—even if in less dramatic conditions.