Arqueologías del ¿Futuro? : Cartografía estética aplicada a territorios específicos

Los Territorios Específicos condicionados socioambiental y/o físicoculturalmente son sistematizados en base a sus cualidades éticas y estéticas en su sentido filosófico y formal respectivamente. Los mismos surgen como entidades orgánicamente integradas a nivel de las prácticas culturales en función de una performatividad autopoiética con gradientes y resonancias ampliamente debatidas académicamente y/o, a través de producciones específicas de las artes visuales contemporáneas. La Cartografía Estética propuesta se conforma de un corpus de obras plásticas y teóricas que, en la trayectoria expositiva abordada para este estudio, conforman una constelación de ejes temáticos y procedimentales en vinculación a los modos de producción en artes visuales. Estos nódulos o modos de hacer en artes visuales, se integran en una fascinante e interesante red epistemológica que, a la luz de las obras de arte seleccionadas son transparentadas no sólo en su complejidad epistémica sino que también son confrontados a interesantes gestos y guiños visuales a modo de cita y figuras conceptuales que en sentido moebiano remisionan formas de inscripción de obra y de la legibilidad de la misma conformando un alfabeto visual contemporáneo indispensable a la hora de pensar y entender la producción artística del último siglo en general y de las artes visuales latinoamericanas y chilenas en particular, todas ellas conforman una panorámica global en lo que hoy se conoce y divulga como arte actual. La unidad espacial abordada como Territorios Específicos se constituyen críticamente por conformar zonas y áreas marginales, espacios residuales y limítrofes, a la vez que contenedores y contenido de resistencia asistémica facilitado por un desinterés administrativo consecuente a su calidad de margen residual naturalizado y sus contenidos subyacentes. Metodológicamente, esta investigación ha sido cuidadosamente sistematizada a partir de herramientas de análisis y medición provenientes de las ciencias sociales y otras más afín a las de la ingeniería como arquitectura y urbanismo y de otras ciencias fronterizas de las biofísicas como la arqueología, etnografía y antropología, adaptadas todas a un interesantísimo protocolo instrumental replicable para las artes visuales. Este compendio procedimental comprende acciones de arte de sitio específico realizadas en una franja costera de 30 kilómetros que abarca desde la ciudad de Valdivia hasta 'La Reserva de Curiñanco' en la recientemente inaugurada XIV Región de Los Ríos en Chile. Estas acciones son confrontadas y tensionadas tanto a nivel de la crítica especializada como de sus afluentes epistemológicos colindantes con las ciencias humanas, donde, este corpus de obra contemporáneas, curatorías, proyectos de sitio y debates especializados, aportan considerablemente a la construcción de futuros posibles no solo de las artes visuales en particular y de las ciencias humanas en general, sino que además conllevan un debate ineludible para el desafío implicado en el debate territorio/globalización

Thermal reaction norms of growth in Atlantic and Pacific silverside fishes

How organisms may adapt to rising global temperatures is uncertain, but concepts can emerge from studying adaptive physiological trait variations across existing spatial climate gradients. Many ectotherms, particularly fish, have evolved increasing genetic growth capacities with latitude (i.e. countergradient variation (CnGV) in growth), which are thought to be an adaptation primarily to strong gradients in seasonality. In contrast, evolutionary responses to gradients in mean temperature are often assumed to involve an alternative mode, 'thermal adaptation'. We measured thermal growth reaction norms in Pacific silverside populations (Atherinops affinis) occurring across a weak latitudinal temperature gradient with invariant seasonality along the North American Pacific coast. Instead of thermal adaptation, we found novel evidence for CnGV in growth, suggesting that CnGV is a ubiquitous mode of reaction-norm evolution in ectotherms even in response to weak spatial and, by inference, temporal climate gradients. A novel, large-scale comparison between ecologically equivalent Pacific versus Atlantic silversides (Menidia menidia) revealed how closely growth CnGV patterns reflect their respective climate gradients. While steep growth reaction norms and increasing growth plasticity with latitude in M. menidia mimicked the strong, highly seasonal Atlantic coastal gradient, shallow reaction norms and much smaller, latitude-independent growth plasticity in A. affinis resembled the weak Pacific latitudinal temperature gradient.

Ex situ respiration rates measured in water column samples during the METEOR cruise M87/1 in April 2012

Oxygen concentration and rate of change of oxygen were measured using the Unisense Oxygen Microsensor System. Water from different depth was taken from CTD attached niskin bottle. Measurements were conducted in 2 ml vials provided by Unisense and lasted for a minimum of two minutes after a stable rate was achieved. The sampling interval was 6 seconds. Transport containers, tubes and vials for measurements were covered with light proof black foil for dark-measurements. Measurements labeled "unfiltered" were passed through a 200 µm sieve in order to remove potential biases stemming from individual meso-zooplankton. Measurements labeled "filtered" were passed through a 0.8 µm polycarbonate filter placed on top of a wetted GF/F filter.

Multiple stressor effects of near-future elevated seawater temperature and decreased pH on righting and escape behaviors of two common Antarctic gastropods

Warming seawater temperatures and ocean acidification on the coastal western Antarctic Peninsula pose unique challenges to stenothermal marine invertebrates. The present study examines prospective sub-lethal effects of elevated temperature, pCO2, and resultant decrease in seawater pH, on righting behavior and maximal escape speeds for two common gastropods, the limpet Nacella concinna (Strebel) and mesogastropod snail Margarella antarctica (Lamy). Replicate individuals held in individual containers were exposed to four combinations of seawater temperature (1.5 °C-current average, 3.5 °C-projected average by 2100) and pH (pH 8.0-current average, pH 7.8-projected average by 2100 as a result of elevated pCO2 levels) for a period of 6 weeks. Following this chronic exposure, righting behavior, determined for the limpets as proportion to right over 24 h and for snails as time to right, as well as maximum escape speed following contact with a sea star predator were measured. We found no significant differences in proportions of limpets displaying the capacity to right among the four temperature-pH treatments. However, there was a significant temperature-pH interaction effect for mean righting times in snails, indicating that the effect of pH on the time to right is dependent on temperature. We found no significant effects of temperature or pH on mean maximal escape speed in limpets. Additionally, we observed a significant temperature-pH interaction effect for mean maximal escape speed in snails. These interactive effects make it difficult to make clear predictions about how these environmental factors may impact behavioral responses.

Mesocosm experiment Cape Verde 2012: Data

Two 7-day mesocosm experiments were conducted in October 2012 at the Instituto Nacional de Desenvolvimento das Pescas (INDP), Mindelo, Cape Verde. Surface water was collected at night before the start of the respective experiment with RV Islândia south of São Vicente (16°44.4'N, 25°09.4'W) and transported to shore using four 600L food safe intermediate bulk containers. Sixteen mesocosm bags were distributed in four flow-through water baths and shaded with blue, transparent lids to approximately 20% of surface irradiation. Mesocosm bags were filled from the containers by gravity, using a submerged hose to minimize bubbles. The accurate volume inside the individual bags was calculated after addition of 1.5 mmol silicate and measuring the resulting silicate concentration. The volume ranged from 105.5 to 145 L. The experimental manipulation comprised addition of different amounts of inorganic N and P. In the first experiment, the P supply was changed at constant N supply in thirteen of the sixteen units, while in the second experiment the N supply was changed at constant P supply in twelve of the sixteen units. In addition to this, "cornerpoints" were chosen that were repeated during both experiments. Four cornerpoints should have been repeated, but setting the nutrient levels in one mesocosm was not succesfull and therefore this mesocosm also was set at the center point conditions. Experimental treatments were evenly distributed between the four water baths. Initial sampling of the mesocosms on day 1 of each run was conducted between 9:45 and 11:30. After nutrient manipulation, sampling was conducted on a daily basis between 09:00 and 10:30 for days 2 to 8.

Mesocosm experiment Cape Verde 2012: Setup

Two 7-day mesocosm experiments were conducted in October 2012 at the Instituto Nacional de Desenvolvimento das Pescas (INDP), Mindelo, Cape Verde. Surface water was collected at night before the start of the respective experiment with RV Islândia south of São Vicente (16°44.4'N, 25°09.4'W) and transported to shore using four 600L food safe intermediate bulk containers. Sixteen mesocosm bags were distributed in four flow-through water baths and shaded with blue, transparent lids to approximately 20% of surface irradiation. Mesocosm bags were filled from the containers by gravity, using a submerged hose to minimize bubbles. The accurate volume inside the individual bags was calculated after addition of 1.5 mmol silicate and measuring the resulting silicate concentration. The volume ranged from 105.5 to 145 L. The experimental manipulation comprised addition of different amounts of inorganic N and P. In the first experiment, the P supply was changed at constant N supply in thirteen of the sixteen units, while in the second experiment the N supply was changed at constant P supply in twelve of the sixteen units. In addition to this, "cornerpoints" were chosen that were repeated during both experiments. Four cornerpoints should have been repeated, but setting the nutrient levels in one mesocosm was not succesfull and therefore this mesocosm also was set at the center point conditions. Experimental treatments were evenly distributed between the four water baths. Initial sampling of the mesocosms on day 1 of each run was conducted between 9:45 and 11:30. After nutrient manipulation, sampling was conducted on a daily basis between 09:00 and 10:30 for days 2 to 8.

Mesocosm experiment Cape Verde 2012: Environmental conditions (PAR, cloud cover, pump)

Two 7-day mesocosm experiments were conducted in October 2012 at the Instituto Nacional de Desenvolvimento das Pescas (INDP), Mindelo, Cape Verde. Surface water was collected at night before the start of the respective experiment with RV Islândia south of São Vicente (16°44.4'N, 25°09.4'W) and transported to shore using four 600L food safe intermediate bulk containers. Sixteen mesocosm bags were distributed in four flow-through water baths and shaded with blue, transparent lids to approximately 20% of surface irradiation. Mesocosm bags were filled from the containers by gravity, using a submerged hose to minimize bubbles. The accurate volume inside the individual bags was calculated after addition of 1.5 mmol silicate and measuring the resulting silicate concentration. The volume ranged from 105.5 to 145 L. The experimental manipulation comprised addition of different amounts of inorganic N and P. In the first experiment, the P supply was changed at constant N supply in thirteen of the sixteen units, while in the second experiment the N supply was changed at constant P supply in twelve of the sixteen units. In addition to this, "cornerpoints" were chosen that were repeated during both experiments. Four cornerpoints should have been repeated, but setting the nutrient levels in one mesocosm was not succesfull and therefore this mesocosm also was set at the center point conditions. Experimental treatments were evenly distributed between the four water baths. Initial sampling of the mesocosms on day 1 of each run was conducted between 9:45 and 11:30. After nutrient manipulation, sampling was conducted on a daily basis between 09:00 and 10:30 for days 2 to 8.

Ex situ respiration rates measured in water column samples during the James Cook cruise JC087 in June 2013

Oxygen concentration and rate of change of oxygen were measured using the Unisense Oxygen Microsensor System. Water from different depth was taken from CTD attached niskin bottle. Measurements were conducted in 2 ml vials provided by Unisense and lasted for a minimum of two minutes after a stable rate was achieved. The sampling interval was 6 seconds. Transport containers, tubes and vials for measurements were covered with light proof black foil for dark-measurements.

Registry of all samples from the Tara Oceans Expedition (2009-2013)

The Tara Oceans Expedition (2009-2013) sampled the world oceans on board a 36 m long schooner, collecting environmental data and organisms from viruses to planktonic metazoans for later analyses using modern sequencing and state-of-the-art imaging technologies. Tara Oceans Data are particularly suited to study the genetic, morphological and functional diversity of plankton. Data sets in this collection provide methodological and environmental context to all samples collected during the Tara Oceans Expedition (2009-2013).

Abundance and biomass of phytoplankton in the western part of the Black Sea during Parshin cruise BSRP in September and October 2005

The dataset is composed of 61 samples from 15 stations. The phytoplankton samples were collected by 5l Niskin bottles attached to the CTD system. The sampling depths were selected according to the CTD profile and the in situ fluorometer readings: surface, temperature, salinity and fluorescence gradients and 1 m above the bottom. At some stations phytoplankton net samples (20 µm mesh-size) were collected to assist species biodiversity examination. The samples (1l sea water) were preserved in 4% buffered to pH 8-8.2 with disodiumtetraborate formaldehyde solution and stored in plastic containers. On board at each station few live samples were qualitatively examined under microscope for preliminary analysis of taxonomic composition and dominant species. Taxon-specific phytoplankton abundance were concentrated down to 50 cm**3 by slow decantation after storage for 20 days in a cool and dark place. The species identification was done under light microscope OLIMPUS-BS41 connected to a video-interactive image analysis system at magnification of the ocular 10X and objective - 40X. A Sedgwick-Rafter camera (1ml) was used for counting. 400 specimen were counted for each sample, while rare and large species were checked in the whole sample (Manual of phytoplankton, 2005). Species identification was mainly after Carmelo T. (1997) and Fukuyo, Y. (2000). The cell biovolume of the taxon-specific phytoplankton biomass was determined based on morpho-metric measurement of phytoplankton units and the corresponding geometric shapes as described in detail in (Edier, 1979).

Counts and abundance of macrozoobenthic organisms settled in artificial soft sediment at Brandal, Kongsfjorden, Spitsbergen

In the Arctic the currently observed rising air temperature results in more frequent calving of icebergs. The latter are derived from tidewater glaciers. Arctic macrozoobenthic soft-sediment communities are considerably disturbed by direct hits and sediment reallocation caused by iceberg scouring. With the aim to describe the primary succession of macrozoobenthic communities following these events, scientific divers installed 28 terracotta containers in the soft-sediment off Brandal (Kongsfjorden, Svalbard, Norway) at 20 m water depth in 2002. The containers were filled with a bentonite-sand-mixture resembling the natural sediment. Samples were taken annually between 2003 and 2007. A shift from pioneering species (e.g. Cumacea: Lamprops fuscatus) towards more specialized taxa, as well as from surface-detritivores towards subsurface-detritivores was observed. This is typical for an ecological succession following the facilitation and inhibition succession model. Similarity between experimental and non-manipulated communities from 2003 was significantly highest after three years of succession. In the following years similarity decreased, probably due to elevated temperatures, which prevented the fjord-system from freezing. Some organisms numerically important in the non-manipulated community (e.g., the polychaete Dipolydora quadrilobata) did not colonies the substrate during the experiment. This suggests that the community had not fully matured within the first three years. Later, the settlement was probably impeded by consequences of warming temperatures. This demonstrates the long-lasting effects of severe disturbances on Arctic macrozoobenthic communities. Furthermore, environmental changes, such as rising temperatures coupled with enhanced food availability due to an increasing frequency of ice-free days per year, may have a stronger effect on succession than exposure time.

Abundance and biomass of phytoplankton in the western part of the Black Sea during the R/V Akademik cruise Ak082001 in August 2001

The dataset is composed of 41 samples from 10 stations. The phytoplankton samples were collected by 5l Niskin bottles attached to the CTD system. The sampling depths were selected according to the CTD profile and the in situ fluorometer readings: surface, temperature, salinity and fluorescence gradients and 1 m above the bottom. At some stations phytoplankton net samples (20 µm mesh-size) were collected to assist species biodiversity examination. The samples (1l sea water) were preserved in 4% buffered to pH 8-8.2 with disodiumtetraborate formaldehyde solution and stored in plastic containers. On board at each station few live samples were qualitatively examined under microscope for preliminary analysis of taxonomic composition and dominant species. The taxon-specific phytoplankton abundance samples were concentrated down to 50 cm**3 by slow decantation after storage for 20 days in a cool and dark place. The species identification was done under light microscope OLIMPUS-BS41 connected to a video-interactive image analysis system at magnification of the ocular 10X and objective - 40X. A Sedgwick-Rafter camera (1ml) was used for counting. 400 specimen were counted for each sample, while rare and large species were checked in the whole sample (Manual of phytoplankton, 2005). Species identification was mainly after Carmelo T. (1997) and Fukuyo, Y. (2000). Total phytoplankton abundance was calculated as sum of taxon-specific abundances. Total phytoplankton biomass was calculated as sum of taxon-specific biomasses. The cell biovolume was determined based on morpho-metric measurement of phytoplankton units and the corresponding geometric shapes as described in detail in (Edier, 1979).

¿Impact from road transport of radioactive wastes in Spain?

Transports of radioactive wastes in Spain are becoming issues of renewed interest, due to the increased mobility of these materials which can be expected after the building and operation of the planned central repository for this country in a near future. Such types of residues will be mainly of the medium and high activity classes and have raised concerns on the safety of the operations, the radiological protection of the individuals, the compliance with the legal regulations and their environmental consequences of all kind. In this study, relevant information for the assessment of radiological risk of road transport were taken into account, as the sources and destination of the radioactive transports, the amount of traveling to be done, the preferred routes and populations affected, the characterization of the residues and containers, their corresponding testing, etc. These data were supplied by different organizations fully related with these activities, like the nuclear power stations, the companies in charge of radioactive transports, the enterprises for inspection and control of the activities, etc., as well as the government institutions which are responsible for the selection and location of the storage facility and other decisions on the nuclear policies of the country. Thus, we have developed a program for computing the data in such a form that by entering the radiation levels at one meter of the transport loads and by choosing a particular displacement, the computer application is capable to calculate the corresponding radiological effects, like the global estimated impact, its relevance to the population in general or on those people living and driving near the main road routes, the doses received by the most exposed individuals (e.g. the workers for loading or driving the vehicle), or the probability of detrimental on the human health. The results of this work could be of help for a better understanding and management of these activities and their related impacts; at the same time that the generated reports of the computer application are considered of particular interest as innovative and complementary information to the current legal documentation, which is basically required for transporting radioactive wastes in the country, according with the international safety rules (like IAEA and ADR).Though main studies are still in progress, as the definite location for the Spanish storage facility has not been decided yet, preliminary results with the existing transports of residues of medium activity indicate that the radiological impact is very low in conventional operations. Nevertheless, the management of these transports is complex and laborious, making it convenient to progress further in the analysis and quantification of this kind of events, which constitutes one of the main objectives of the present study for the radioactive road mobility in Spain.

Diseño y aplicación de una metodología prospectiva para la determinación de los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores

Durante las últimas décadas se observa una tendencia sostenida al crecimiento en las dimensiones de los grandes buques portacontenedores, que produce, que las infraestructuras portuarias y otras destinadas al tráfico de contenedores deban adaptarse para poder brindar los servicios correspondientes y mantenerse competitivas con otras para no perder el mercado. Esta situación implica importantes inversiones y modificaciones en los sistemas de transporte de contenedores por el gran volumen de carga que se debe mover en un corto periodo de tiempo, lo que genera la necesidad de tomar previsiones relacionadas con la probable evolución a futuro de las dimensiones que alcanzarán los grandes buques portacontenedores. En relación a los aspectos citados surge la inquietud de determinar los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores, con una visión totalizadora de todos los factores que incidirán en los próximos años, ya sea como un freno o un impulso a la tendencia que se verifica en el pasado y en el presente. En consideración a que el tema a tratar y resolver se encuentra en el futuro, con un horizonte de predicción de veinte años, se diseña y se aplica una metodología prospectiva, que permite alcanzar conclusiones con mayor grado de objetividad sobre probables escenarios futuros. La metodología prospectiva diseñada, conjuga distintas herramientas metodológicas, cualitativas, semi-cuantitativas y cuantitativas que se validan entre sí. Sobre la base del pasado y el presente, las herramientas cuantitativas permiten encontrar relaciones entre variables y hacer proyecciones, sin embargo, estas metodologías pierden validez más allá de los tres a cuatro años, por los vertiginosos y dinámicos cambios que se producen actualmente, en las áreas política, social y económica. Las metodologías semi-cuantitativas y cualitativas, empleadas en forma conjunta e integradas, permiten el análisis de circunstancias del pasado y del presente, obteniendo resultados cuantitativos que se pueden proyectar hacia un futuro cercano, los que integrados en estudios cualitativos proporcionan resultados a largo plazo, facilitando considerar variables cualitativas como la creciente preocupación por la preservación del medio ambiente y la piratería. La presente tesis, tiene como objetivo principal “identificar los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores y determinar sus escenarios”. Para lo cual, la misma se estructura en fases consecutivas y que se retroalimentan continuamente. Las tres primeras fases son un enfoque sobre el pasado y el presente, que establece el problema a resolver. Se estudian los antecedentes y el estado del conocimiento en relación a los factores y circunstancias que motivaron y facilitaron la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques. También se estudia el estado del conocimiento de las metodologías para predecir el futuro y se diseña de una metodología prospectiva. La cuarta fase, denominada Resultados, se desarrolla en distintas etapas, fundamentadas en las fases anteriores, con el fin de resolver el problema dando respuestas a las preguntas que se formularon para alcanzar el objetivo fijado. En el proceso de esta fase, con el objeto de predecir probables futuros, se aplica la metodología prospectiva diseñada, que contempla el análisis del pasado y el presente, que determina los factores cuya influencia provocó el crecimiento en dimensiones de los grandes buques hasta la actualidad, y que constituye la base para emplear los métodos prospectivos que permiten determinar qué factores condicionarán en el futuro la evolución de los grandes buques. El probable escenario futuro formado por los factores determinados por el criterio experto, es validado mediante un modelo cuantitativo dinámico, que además de obtener el probable escenario futuro basado en las tendencias de comportamiento hasta el presente de los factores determinantes considerados, permite estudiar distintos probables escenarios futuros en función de considerar un cambio en la tendencia futura de los factores determinantes. El análisis del pasado indica que la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores hasta el presente, se ha motivado por un crecimiento económico mundial que se tradujo en un aumento del comercio internacional, particularmente entre los países de Asia, con Europa y Estados Unidos. Esta tendencia se ha visto favorecida por el factor globalización y la acelerada evolución tecnológica que ha permitido superar los obstáculos que se presentaron. Es de destacar que aún en periodos de crisis económicas, con pronósticos de contracciones en el comercio, en los últimos años continuó la tendencia al crecimiento en dimensiones, en busca de una economía de escala para el transporte marítimo de contenedores, en las rutas transoceánicas. La investigación de la evolución de los grandes buques portacontenedores en el futuro, se efectúa mediante el empleo de una metodología prospectiva en la que el criterio experto se valida con un método cuantitativo dinámico, y además se fundamenta en una solida base pre-prospectiva. La metodología diseñada permite evaluar con un alto grado de objetividad cuales serán los condicionantes que incidirán en el crecimiento en tamaño de los grandes buques portacontenedores en el escenario con mayor probabilidad de acontecer en los próximos veinte años (2032), y también en otros escenarios que podrían presentarse en el caso de que los factores modifiquen su tendencia o bien se produzcan hechos aleatorios. El resultado se sintetiza en que la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores en los próximos 20 años se verá condicionada por factores en relación a los conceptos de oferta (los que facilitan u obstaculizan la tendencia), demanda (los que motivan o impulsan la tendencia) y factores externos (los que desestabilizan el equilibrio entre oferta y demanda). La tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores se verá obstaculizada / limitada principalmente por factores relacionados a las infraestructuras, resultando los pasos y/o canales vinculados a las rutas marítimas, los limitantes futuros al crecimiento en dimensiones de los grandes buques portacontenedores; y la interacción buque / infraestructura (grúas) un factor que tenderá a obstaculizar esta tendencia de los grandes portacontenedores. El desarrollo económico mundial que estimula el comercio internacional y los factores precio del petróleo y condicionantes medioambientales impulsarán la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores. Recent years have seen a sustained tendency towards the growth in the dimensions of large container ships. This has meant that port and other infrastructure used for container traffic has had to be adapted in order to provide the required services and to maintain a competitive position, so as not to lose market share. This situation implies the need for major investments in modifications to the container transport system, on account of the large volume of traffic to be handled in a short period of time. This in turn has generated a need to make provision for the probable future evolution of the ultimate dimensions that will be reached by large container ships. Such considerations give rise to the question of what are the future determinants for the growth of large container ships, requiring an overall vision of all the factors that will apply in future years, whether as a brake on or an incentive to the growth tendency which has been seen in the past and present In view of the fact that the theme to be dealt with and resolved relates to the future, with a forecasting horizon of some 20 years, a foresight methodology has been designed and applied so as to enable conclusions about probable future scenarios to be reached with a greater degree of objectivity. The designed methodology contains different methodological tools, both qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative, which are internally consistent. On the basis of past and present observations, the quantitative elements enable relationships to be established and forecasts to be made. Nevertheless such an approach loses validity more than three or four years into the future, on account of the very rapid and dynamic changes which may be seen at present in political, social and economic spheres. The semi-quantitative and qualitative methodologies are used coherently together and allow the analysis of past and present conditions, thus obtaining quantitative results which for short-term projections, which when integrated with the qualitative studies provide results for the long-term, facilitating the consideration of qualitative variables such as the increasing importance of environmental protection and the impact of piracy. The principal objective of the present thesis is "to identify the future conditions affecting the growth of large container ships and to determine possible scenarios". The thesis is structured in consecutive and related phases. The first three phases focus on the past and present in order to determine the problem to be resolved. The background is studied in order to establish the state of knowledge about the factors and circumstances which have motivated and facilitated the growth tendency for large container ships and the methodologies that have been used. In this way a specific foresight methodology is designed. The fourth phase, Results, is developed in distinct stages based on the previous phases, so as to resolve the problem posed and responding to the questions that arise. In this way the determined objective is reached. The fourth phase sees the application of the methodology that has been designed in order to predict posible futures. This includes analysis of the past and present factors which have caused the growth in the dimensions of large container ships up to the present. These provide the basis on which to apply the foresight methods which enable the future factors which will condition the development of such large container ships. The probable future scenarios are made up of the factors identified by expert judgement (using the Delphi technique) and validated by means of a dynamic quantitative model. This model both identifies the probable future scenarios based on past and present factors and enables the different future scenarios to be analysed as a function of future changes in the conditioning factors. Analysis of the past shows that the growth tendency up to the present for large container ships has been motivated by the growth of the world economy and the consequent increased international trade, especially between the countries of Asia with Europe and the United States. This tendency has been favoured by the trend towards globalization and by the rapid technical evolution in ship design, which has allowed the obstacles encountered to be overcome. It should be noted that even in periods of economic crisis, with an expectation for reduced trade, as experienced in recent years, the tendency towards increased ship dimensions has continued in search of economies of scale for the maritime transport of containers on transoceanic routes. The present investigation of the future evolution of large container ships has been done using a foresight methodology in which the expert judgement is validated by a dynamic quantitative methodology, founded on a firm pre-foresight analysis. The methodology that has been designed permits the evaluation, with a high degree of objectivity, of the future factors that will affect the growth of large container ships for the most probable scenario expected in the next 20 years (up to 2032). The evaluation applies also to other scenarios which may arise, in the event that their component factors are modified or indeed in the light of random events. In summary, the conclusión is that the tendency for growth in large container ships in the future 20 years will be determined by: factors related to supply, which slow or halt the tendency; factors related to demand, which encourage the tendency and finally, external factors which interrupt the equilibrium between supply and demand. The tendency for increasing growth in large container ships will be limited or even halted by factors related to infrastructure, including the natural and man-made straits and canals used by maritime transport. In addition the infrastructure required to serve such vessels both in port (including cranes and other equipment) and related transport, will tend to slow the growth tendency. The factors which will continue to encourage the tendency towards the growth of large container ships include world economic development, which stimulates international trade, and an increasing emphasis on environmental aspects.

The Phase Space as a New Representation of the Dynamical Behaviour of Temperature and Enthalpy in a Reefer monitored with a Multidistributed Sensors Network

The study of temperature gradients in cold stores and containers is a critical issue in the food industry for the quality assurance of products during transport, as well as forminimizing losses. The objective of this work is to develop a new methodology of data analysis based on phase space graphs of temperature and enthalpy, collected by means of multidistributed, low cost and autonomous wireless sensors and loggers. A transoceanic refrigerated transport of lemons in a reefer container ship from Montevideo (Uruguay) to Cartagena (Spain) was monitored with a network of 39 semi-passive TurboTag RFID loggers and 13 i-button loggers. Transport included intermodal transit from transoceanic to short shipping vessels and a truck trip. Data analysis is carried out using qualitative phase diagrams computed on the basis of Takens?Ruelle reconstruction of attractors. Fruit stress is quantified in terms of the phase diagram area which characterizes the cyclic behaviour of temperature. Areas within the enthalpy phase diagram computed for the short sea shipping transport were 5 times higher than those computed for the long sea shipping, with coefficients of variation above 100% for both periods. This new methodology for data analysis highlights the significant heterogeneity of thermohygrometric conditions at different locations in the container.