Performance and prediction: Bayesian modelling of fallible choice in chess

Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.

Eddy current testing program with scanning probe head having parallel and normal sensing coils

An eddy current testing system consists of a multi-sensor probe, computer and a special expansion card and software for data collection and analysis. The probe incorporates an excitation coil, and sensor coils; at least one sensor coil is a lateral current-normal coil and at least one is a current perturbation coil.

A data collection case study supporting requirements oriented prediction and management in software developments

Consider the statement "this project should cost X and has risk of Y". Such statements are used daily in industry as the basis for making decisions. The work reported here is part of a study aimed at providing a rational and pragmatic basis for such statements. Of particular interest are predictions made in the requirements and early phases of projects. A preliminary model has been constructed using Bayesian Belief Networks and in support of this, a programme to collect and study data during the execution of various software development projects commenced in May 2002. The data collection programme is undertaken under the constraints of a commercial industrial regime of multiple concurrent small to medium scale software development projects. Guided by pragmatism, the work is predicated on the use of data that can be collected readily by project managers; including expert judgements, effort, elapsed times and metrics collected within each project.

ASYM20: a program for force constant and normal coordinate calculations, with a critical review of the theory involved

The theory of harmonic force constant refinement calculations is reviewed, and a general-purpose program for force constant and normal coordinate calculations is described. The program, called ASYM20. is available through Quantum Chemistry Program Exchange. It will work on molecules of any symmetry containing up to 20 atoms and will produce results on a series of isotopomers as desired. The vibrational secular equations are solved in either nonredundant valence internal coordinates or symmetry coordinates. As well as calculating the (harmonic) vibrational wavenumbers and normal coordinates, the program will calculate centrifugal distortion constants, Coriolis zeta constants, harmonic contributions to the α′s. root-mean-square amplitudes of vibration, and other quantities related to gas electron-diffraction studies and thermodynamic properties. The program will work in either a predict mode, in which it calculates results from an input force field, or in a refine mode, in which it refines an input force field by least squares to fit observed data on the quantities mentioned above. Predicate values of the force constants may be included in the data set for a least-squares refinement. The program is written in FORTRAN for use on a PC or a mainframe computer. Operation is mainly controlled by steering indices in the input data file, but some interactive control is also implemented.

PopABC: a program to infer historical demographic parameters

PopABC is a computer package for inferring the pattern of demographic divergence of closely related populations and species. The software performs coalescent simulation in the framework of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). PopABC can also be used to perform Bayesian model choice to discriminate between different demographic scenarios. The program can be used either for research or for education and teaching purposes.

ExtSym: a program to aid space-group determination from powder diffraction data

Once unit-cell dimensions have been determined from a powder diffraction data set and therefore the crystal system is known (e.g. orthorhombic), the method presented by Markvardsen, David, Johnson & Shankland [Acta Cryst. (2001), A57, 47-54] can be used to generate a table ranking the extinction symbols of the given crystal system according to probability. Markvardsen et al. tested a computer program (ExtSym) implementing the method against Pawley refinement outputs generated using the TF12LS program [David, Ibberson & Matthewman (1992). Report RAL-92-032. Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Didcot, Oxon, UK]. Here, it is shown that ExtSym can be used successfully with many well known powder diffraction analysis packages, namely DASH [David, Shankland, van de Streek, Pidcock, Motherwell & Cole (2006). J. Appl. Cryst. 39, 910-915], FullProf [Rodriguez-Carvajal (1993). Physica B, 192, 55-69], GSAS [Larson & Von Dreele (1994). Report LAUR 86-748. Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico, USA], PRODD [Wright (2004). Z. Kristallogr. 219, 1-11] and TOPAS [Coelho (2003). Bruker AXS GmbH, Karlsruhe, Germany]. In addition, a precise description of the optimal input for ExtSym is given to enable other software packages to interface with ExtSym and to allow the improvement/modification of existing interfacing scripts. ExtSym takes as input the powder data in the form of integrated intensities and error estimates for these intensities. The output returned by ExtSym is demonstrated to be strongly dependent on the accuracy of these error estimates and the reason for this is explained. ExtSym is tested against a wide range of data sets, confirming the algorithm to be very successful at ranking the published extinction symbol as the most likely. (C) 2008 International Union of Crystallography Printed in Singapore - all rights reserved.

Jpowder: a Java-based program for the display and examination of powder diffraction data

The ability to display and inspect powder diffraction data quickly and efficiently is a central part of the data analysis process. Whilst many computer programs are capable of displaying powder data, their focus is typically on advanced operations such as structure solution or Rietveld refinement. This article describes a lightweight software package, Jpowder, whose focus is fast and convenient visualization and comparison of powder data sets in a variety of formats from computers with network access. Jpowder is written in Java and uses its associated Web Start technology to allow ‘single-click deployment’ from a web page, http://www.jpowder.org. Jpowder is open source, free and available for use by anyone.

Understanding cumulative risk

This paper summarizes the theory of simple cumulative risks—for example, the risk of food poisoning from the consumption of a series of portions of tainted food. Problems concerning such risks are extraordinarily difficult for naı¨ve individuals, and the paper explains the reasons for this difficulty. It describes how naı¨ve individuals usually attempt to estimate cumulative risks, and it outlines a computer program that models these methods. This account predicts that estimates can be improved if problems of cumulative risk are framed so that individuals can focus on the appropriate subset of cases. The paper reports two experiments that corroborated this prediction. They also showed that whether problems are stated in terms of frequencies (80 out of 100 people got food poisoning) or in terms of percentages (80% of people got food poisoning) did not reliably affect accuracy.

A FORTRAN-90 low-energy electron diffraction program (LEED90 v1.1)

We describe a FORTRAN-90 program to compute low-energy electron diffraction I(V) curves. Plane-waves and layer doubling are used to compute the inter-layer multiple-scattering, while the intra-layer multiple-scattering is computed in the standard way expanding the wavefield on a basis of spherical waves. The program is kept as general as possible, in order to allow testing different parts of multiple-scattering calculations. In particular, it can handle non-diagonal t-matrices describing the scattering of non-spherical potentials, anisotropic vibrations, anharmonicity, etc. The program does not use old FORTRAN flavours, and has been written keeping in mind the advantage for parallelism brought forward by FORTRAN-90.

Prediction of processed cheese instrumental texture and meltability by mid-infrared spectroscopy coupled with chemometric tools

The objective of this study was to determine the potential of mid-infrared spectroscopy coupled with multidimensional statistical analysis for the prediction of processed cheese instrumental texture and meltability attributes. Processed cheeses (n = 32) of varying composition were manufactured in a pilot plant. Following two and four weeks storage at 4 degrees C samples were analysed using texture profile analysis, two meltability tests (computer vision, Olson and Price) and mid-infrared spectroscopy (4000-640 cm(-1)). Partial least squares regression was used to develop predictive models for all measured attributes. Five attributes were successfully modelled with varying degrees of accuracy. The computer vision meltability model allowed for discrimination between high and low melt values (R-2 = 0.64). The hardness and springiness models gave approximate quantitative results (R-2 = 0.77) and the cohesiveness (R-2 = 0.81) and Olson and Price meltability (R-2 = 0.88) models gave good prediction results. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved..

The general observation period 2007 within the priority program on quantitative precipitation forecasting: concept and first results

In the year 2007 a General Observation Period (GOP) has been performed within the German Priority Program on Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (PQP). By optimizing the use of existing instrumentation a large data set of in-situ and remote sensing instruments with special focus on water cycle variables was gathered over the full year cycle. The area of interest covered central Europe with increasing focus towards the Black Forest where the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) took place from June to August 2007. Thus the GOP includes a variety of precipitation systems in order to relate the COPS results to a larger spatial scale. For a timely use of the data, forecasts of the numerical weather prediction models COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE of the German Meteorological Service were tailored to match the observations and perform model evaluation in a near real-time environment. The ultimate goal is to identify and distinguish between different kinds of model deficits and to improve process understanding.

Predicting natural ventilation in a two-zone building driven by combined forces.

Natural ventilation relies on less controllable natural forces so that it needs more artificial control, and thus its prediction, design and analysis become more important. This paper presents both theoretical and numerical simulations for predicting the natural ventilation flow in a two-zone building with multiple openings which is subjected to the combined natural forces. To our knowledge, this is the first analytical solutions obtained so far for a building with more than one zones and in each zone with possibly more than 2 openings. The analytical solution offers a possibility for validating a multi-zone airflow program. A computer program MIX is employed to conduct the numerical simulation. Good agreement is achieved. Different airflow modes are identified and some design recommendations are also provided.

Strategies: Revolution in climate prediction is both necessary and possible: A declaration at the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction

The impending threat of global climate change and its regional manifestations is among the most important and urgent problems facing humanity. Society needs accurate and reliable estimates of changes in the probability of regional weather variations to develop science-based adaptation and mitigation strategies. Recent advances in weather prediction and in our understanding and ability to model the climate system suggest that it is both necessary and possible to revolutionize climate prediction to meet these societal needs. However, the scientific workforce and the computational capability required to bring about such a revolution is not available in any single nation. Motivated by the success of internationally funded infrastructure in other areas of science, this paper argues that, because of the complexity of the climate system, and because the regional manifestations of climate change are mainly through changes in the statistics of regional weather variations, the scientific and computational requirements to predict its behavior reliably are so enormous that the nations of the world should create a small number of multinational high-performance computing facilities dedicated to the grand challenges of developing the capabilities to predict climate variability and change on both global and regional scales over the coming decades. Such facilities will play a key role in the development of next-generation climate models, build global capacity in climate research, nurture a highly trained workforce, and engage the global user community, policy-makers, and stakeholders. We recommend the creation of a small number of multinational facilities with computer capability at each facility of about 20 peta-flops in the near term, about 200 petaflops within five years, and 1 exaflop by the end of the next decade. Each facility should have sufficient scientific workforce to develop and maintain the software and data analysis infrastructure. Such facilities will enable questions of what resolution, both horizontal and vertical, in atmospheric and ocean models, is necessary for more confident predictions at the regional and local level. Current limitations in computing power have placed severe limitations on such an investigation, which is now badly needed. These facilities will also provide the world's scientists with the computational laboratories for fundamental research on weather–climate interactions using 1-km resolution models and on atmospheric, terrestrial, cryospheric, and oceanic processes at even finer scales. Each facility should have enabling infrastructure including hardware, software, and data analysis support, and scientific capacity to interact with the national centers and other visitors. This will accelerate our understanding of how the climate system works and how to model it. It will ultimately enable the climate community to provide society with climate predictions, which are based on our best knowledge of science and the most advanced technology.