Greasing the wheels? The impact of regulations and corruption on firm entry

This paper investigates the question of whether corruption might ‘grease the wheels’ of an economy. We investigate whether and to what extent the impact of regulations on entrepreneurship is dependent on corruption. We first test whether regulations robustly deter firm entry into markets. Our results show that the existence of a larger number of procedures required to start a business, as well as larger minimum capital requirements are detrimental to entrepreneurship. Second, we test whether corruption reduces the negative impact of regulations on entrepreneurship in highly regulated economies. Our empirical analysis, covering a maximum of 43 countries over the 2003–2005 period, shows that corruption facilitates firm entry in highly regulated economies. For example, the ‘greasing’ effect of corruption kicks in at around 50 days required to start a new business. Our results thus provide support for the ‘grease the wheels’ hypothesis.

Do IMF and World Bank programs induce government crises? an empirical analysis

We examine whether and under what circumstances World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs affect the likelihood of major government crises. We find that crises are, on average, more likely as a consequence of World Bank programs. We also find that governments face an increasing risk of entering a crisis when they remain under an IMF or World Bank arrangement once the economy's performance improves. The international financial institution's (IFI) scapegoat function thus seems to lose its value when the need for financial support is less urgent. While the probability of a crisis increases when a government turns to the IFIs, programs inherited by preceding governments do not affect the probability of a crisis. This is in line with two interpretations. First, the conclusion of IFI programs can signal the government's incompetence, and second, governments that inherit programs might be less likely to implement program conditions agreed to by their predecessors.

Does political proximity to the U.S. cause terror?

We analyze the impact of political proximity to the United States on the occurrence and severity of terror. Employing panel data for 116 countries over the period 1975–2001 we find that countries voting in line with the U.S. are victims of more and deadlier attacks.

The Holocene temperature conundrum

A recent temperature reconstruction of global annual temperature shows Early Holocene warmth followed by a cooling trend through the Middle to Late Holocene [Marcott SA, et al., 2013, Science 339(6124):1198–1201]. This global cooling is puzzling because it is opposite from the expected and simulated global warming trend due to the retreating ice sheets and rising atmospheric greenhouse gases. Our critical reexamination of this contradiction between the reconstructed cooling and the simulated warming points to potentially significant biases in both the seasonality of the proxy reconstruction and the climate sensitivity of current climate models.

ENSO and greenhouse warming

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Niño events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Niño. The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available.

Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation is Earth’s most prominent source of interannual climate variability, alternating irregularly between El Niño and La Niña, and resulting in global disruption of weather patterns, ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture1, 2, 3, 4, 5. The 1998–1999 extreme La Niña event that followed the 1997–1998 extreme El Niño event6 switched extreme El Niño-induced severe droughts to devastating floods in western Pacific countries, and vice versa in the southwestern United States4, 7. During extreme La Niña events, cold sea surface conditions develop in the central Pacific8, 9, creating an enhanced temperature gradient from the Maritime continent to the central Pacific. Recent studies have revealed robust changes in El Niño characteristics in response to simulated future greenhouse warming10, 11, 12, but how La Niña will change remains unclear. Here we present climate modelling evidence, from simulations conducted for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (ref. 13), for a near doubling in the frequency of future extreme La Niña events, from one in every 23 years to one in every 13 years. This occurs because projected faster mean warming of the Maritime continent than the central Pacific, enhanced upper ocean vertical temperature gradients, and increased frequency of extreme El Niño events are conducive to development of the extreme La Niña events. Approximately 75% of the increase occurs in years following extreme El Niño events, thus projecting more frequent swings between opposite extremes from one year to the next.

Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming

El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as ‘the climate event of the twentieth century’1, 2, and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño3, featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Niño, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems4, 5, agriculture6, tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide3, 7, 8, 9. Potential future changes in such extreme El Niño occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble12. The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters13, 14, facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.

Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850–1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

The gynoecium of male Anchietea pyrifolia (Violaceae): Preserved structure with a new function

Structure of inflorescences and flowers and flowering behaviour are reported for the woody liana Anchietea pyrifolia (Violaceae) from Brazil. The specimen studied is grown for some decades now in the greenhouses of Halle Botanical Garden and turned out unisexually male, which adds a further example of dioecism to the family Violaceae, in which this type of sex distribution is rarely encountered. The flowers are exceptional also for the strongly asymmetric anterior petal, which represents a rare case of a species with enantiomorphic flowers pollinated by Lepidoptera. They have a fully developed gynoecium with a complicated architecture comparable to the pistil of bisexual Violaceae flowers, though without ovules. The style head is capable to release viscose liquid on tactile stimulation or pressure, which is known to act as pollen-gathering mechanism in bisexual Violaceae species with usually dry pollen and buzz-pollination. This function has switched in male A. pyrifolia to a mechanism for efficient pollen release mediated by insect pollinators from its short-lived flowers. (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Linear covariant gauges on the lattice

Linear covariant gauges, such as Feynman gauge, are very useful in perturbative calculations. Their non-perturbative formulation is, however, highly non-trivial. In particular, it is a challenge to define linear covariant gauges on a lattice. We consider a class of gauges in lattice gauge theory that coincides with the perturbative definition of linear covariant gauges in the formal continuum limit. The corresponding gauge-fixing procedure is described and analyzed in detail, with an application to the pure SU(2) case. In addition, results for the gluon propagator in the two-dimensional case are given. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Andraspråkselever och matematik - språksvårigheter är bara halva sanningen : En studie i åk 6-9

Ett större antal andraspråkelever i den svenska skolan ställer nya krav på undervisningen och på lärarna. Svårigheter uppstår när elever ska lära ett nytt språk samtidigt som de ska inhämta kunskaper på det nya språket. Inom matematiken ger de matematiska textuppgifterna eleverna en extra utmaning där ett enda missat ord kan omintetgöra hela förståelsen. Det matematiska språket har sin egen speciella utformning och avviker ifrån vardagligt språk. Det kan därför vara ord i textuppgifterna som är nya och främmande för elever som inte har kommit så långt i sin svenska språkutveckling. Många av de begrepp som vi har i matematiken har dessutom flera betydelser som tex. volym, rymmer, axel, udda och så vidare och när eleverna inte förstår innebörden i texten så vet de inte heller vad de ska göra och kan därför inte göra den matematiska beräkning som uppgiften efterfrågar.Huvudsyftet med denna undersökning är därför att få kunskap om vilka svårigheter som möter andraspråkselever i matematikundervisningen. Svårigheter som lärare i matematik behöver känna till för att kunna ta hänsyn till dessa och på bästa sätt kunna stödja och hjälpa andraspråkelever till en god inlärning med de resurser som finns tillgängliga på skolan idag.Uppsatsen presenterar resultatet av ett språktest med matematiska textuppgifter. Detta resultat kompletteras sedan med intervjuer av lärare, elever och elevernas studiehandledare.Matematikundervisningen behöver utformas med en större kunskap om språk och språkinlärning. För att kunna bilda sig en uppfattning om ett nytt ords betydelse måste ordet få användas i olika sammanhang, ordet måste behövas. Mer muntliga övningar och mer träning i att beskriva tankar och begrepp skulle gynna inte bara andraspråkeleverna utan alla elever i klassen.Lärare i matematik kan känna att de har för lite tid och resurser för att kunna hjälpa andraspråkelever till goda matematikkunskaper. Det saknas även kunskaper om vad som är svårt inom matematiken och i texten till matematiska läsuppgifter. Till en del saknas också kunskaper i vad det innebär att lära sig ett språk och hur det är att studera på ett språk som man inte behärskar. De elever som jag har talat med är nöjda med sin matematikundervisning, sin lärare och sin studiehandledare. Två av dem är entusiastiska och mycket motiverade och har bra resultat. De andra två tycker att matematiken är svår och tråkig och har trots ansträngningar jobbigt med förståelsen. Lärare skulle behöva mer kunskaper om matematikundervisning för andraspråkelever. De behöver också ta ett större övergripande ansvar för varje enskild elevs kunskapsinhämtning. Som det är idag läggs ofta ansvaret för andraspråkeleven på någon annan, det kan vara studiehandledaren, läraren i svenska som andraspråk, modersmålsläraren eller speciallärare. Självklart ska alla dessa lärare samarbeta för att skapa en bra studiesituation för eleven men någon måste ha huvudansvaret. Det mest naturliga är att ansvaret innehas av den ordinarie läraren som känner till de mål och kursplaner som finns för ämnet.