Voter Participation in the 1998 Bundestag Elections: A Theoretical Modification and Empirical Application of Downs’ Theory of Voter Participation

This article seeks to contribute to the illumination of the so-called 'paradox of voting' using the German Bundestag elections of 1998 as an empirical case. Downs' model of voter participation will be extended to include elements of the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU). This will allow a theoretical and empirical exploration of the crucial mechanisms of individual voters' decisions to participate, or abstain from voting, in the German general election of 1998. It will be argued that the infinitely low probability of an individual citizen's vote to decide the election outcome will not necessarily reduce the probability of electoral participation. The empirical analysis is largely based on data from the ALLBUS 1998. It confirms the predictions derived from SEU theory. The voters' expected benefits and their subjective expectation to be able to influence government policy by voting are the crucial mechanisms to explain participation. By contrast, the explanatory contribution of perceived information and opportunity costs is low.

Anisotropic diffusion at the field scale in a 4-year multi-tracer diffusion and retention experiment – I: Insights from the experimental data

Abstract Claystones are considered worldwide as barrier materials for nuclear waste repositories. In the Mont Terri underground research laboratory (URL), a nearly 4-year diffusion and retention (DR) experiment has been performed in Opalinus Clay. It aimed at (1) obtaining data at larger space and time scales than in laboratory experiments and (2) under relevant in situ conditions with respect to pore water chemistry and mechanical stress, (3) quantifying the anisotropy of in situ diffusion, and (4) exploring possible effects of a borehole-disturbed zone. The experiment included two tracer injection intervals in a borehole perpendicular to bedding, through which traced artificial pore water (APW) was circulated, and a pressure monitoring interval. The APW was spiked with neutral tracers (HTO, HDO, H2O-18), anions (Br, I, SeO4), and cations (Na-22, Ba-133, Sr-85, Cs-137, Co-60, Eu-152, stable Cs, and stable Eu). Most tracers were added at the beginning, some were added at a later stage. The hydraulic pressure in the injection intervals was adjusted according to the measured value in the pressure monitoring interval to ensure transport by diffusion only. Concentration time-series in the APW within the borehole intervals were obtained, as well as 2D concentration distributions in the rock at the end of the experiment after overcoring and subsampling which resulted in �250 samples and �1300 analyses. As expected, HTO diffused the furthest into the rock, followed by the anions (Br, I, SeO4) and by the cationic sorbing tracers (Na-22, Ba-133, Cs, Cs-137, Co-60, Eu-152). The diffusion of SeO4 was slower than that of Br or I, approximately proportional to the ratio of their diffusion coefficients in water. Ba-133 diffused only into �0.1 m during the �4 a. Stable Cs, added at a higher concentration than Cs-137, diffused further into the rock than Cs-137, consistent with a non-linear sorption behavior. The rock properties (e.g., water contents) were rather homogeneous at the centimeter scale, with no evidence of a borehole-disturbed zone. In situ anisotropy ratios for diffusion, derived for the first time directly from field data, are larger for HTO and Na-22 (�5) than for anions (�3�4 for Br and I). The lower ionic strength of the pore water at this location (�0.22 M) as compared to locations of earlier experiments in the Mont Terri URL (�0.39 M) had no notable effect on the anion accessible pore fraction for Cl, Br, and I: the value of 0.55 is within the range of earlier data. Detailed transport simulations involving different codes will be presented in a companion paper.

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

Spatial gradients of temperature, accumulation and delta18O-ice in Greenland over a series of Dansgaard-Oeschger events

Air and water stable isotope measurements from four Greenland deep ice cores (GRIP, GISP2, NGRIP and NEEM) are investigated over a series of Dansgaard–Oeschger events (DO 8, 9 and 10), which are representative of glacial millennial scale variability. Combined with firn modeling, air isotope data allow us to quantify abrupt temperature increases for each drill site (1σ = 0.6 °C for NEEM, GRIP and GISP2, 1.5 °C for NGRIP). Our data show that the magnitude of stadial–interstadial temperature increase is up to 2 °C larger in central and North Greenland than in northwest Greenland: i.e., for DO 8, a magnitude of +8.8 °C is inferred, which is significantly smaller than the +11.1 °C inferred at GISP2. The same spatial pattern is seen for accumulation increases. This pattern is coherent with climate simulations in response to reduced sea-ice extent in the Nordic seas. The temporal water isotope (δ18O)–temperature relationship varies between 0.3 and 0.6 (±0.08) ‰ °C−1 and is systematically larger at NEEM, possibly due to limited changes in precipitation seasonality compared to GISP2, GRIP or NGRIP. The gas age−ice age difference of warming events represented in water and air isotopes can only be modeled when assuming a 26% (NGRIP) to 40% (GRIP) lower accumulation than that derived from a Dansgaard–Johnsen ice flow model.

A Model Study of the Seasonal Circulation in the Gulf of Maine

The Princeton Ocean Model is used to study the circulation in the Gulf of Maine and its seasonal transition in response to wind, surface heat flux, river discharge, and the M-2 tide. The model has an orthogonal-curvature linear grid in the horizontal with variable spacing from 3 km nearshore to 7 km offshore and 19 levels in the vertical. It is initialized and forced at the open boundary with model results from the East Coast Forecast System. The first experiment is forced by monthly climatological wind and heat flux from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set; discharges from the Saint John, Penobscot, Kennebec, and Merrimack Rivers are added in the second experiment; the semidiurnal lunar tide (M-2) is included as part of the open boundary forcing in the third experiment. It is found that the surface heat flux plays an important role in regulating the annual cycle of the circulation in the Gulf of Maine. The spinup of the cyclonic circulation between April and June is likely caused by the differential heating between the interior gulf and the exterior shelf/slope region. From June to December the cyclonic circulation continues to strengthen, but gradually shrinks in size. When winter cooling erodes the stratification, the cyclonic circulation penetrates deeper into the water column. The circulation quickly spins down from December to February as most of the energy is consumed by bottom friction. While inclusion of river discharge changes details of the circulation pattern, the annual evolution of the circulation is largely unaffected. On the other hand, inclusion of the tide results in not only the anticyclonic circulation on Georges Bank but also modifications to the seasonal circulation.

Tidally Driven Exchange in an Archipelago Strait: Biological and Optical Responses

Measurements in San Bernardino Strait, one of two major connections between the Pacific Ocean and the interior waters of the Philippine Archipelago, captured 2-3 m s(-1) tidal currents that drove vertical mixing and net landward transport. A TRIAXUS towed profiling vehicle equipped with physical and optical sensors was used to repeatedly map subregions within the strait, employing survey patterns designed to resolve tidal variability of physical and optical properties. Strong flow over the sill between Luzon and Capul islands resulted in upward transport and mixing of deeper high-salinity, low-oxygen, high-particle-and-nutrient-concentration water into the upper water column, landward of the sill. During the high-velocity ebb flow, topography influences the vertical distribution of water, but without the diapycnal mixing observed during flood tide. The surveys captured a net landward flux of water through the narrowest part of the strait. The tidally varying velocities contribute to strong vertical transport and diapycnal mixing of the deeper water into the upper layer, contributing to the observed higher phytoplankton biomass within the interior of the strait.

A climatological analysis of high-precipitation events in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, and associated large-scale atmospheric conditions

The link between high precipitation in Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica, and the large-scale atmospheric circulation is investigated using ERA-Interim data for 1979–2009. High-precipitation events are analyzed at Halvfarryggen situated in the coastal region of DML and at Kohnen Station located in its interior. This study further includes a comprehensive comparison of high precipitation in ERA-Interim with precipitation data from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) and snow accumulation measurements from automatic weather stations (AWSs), with the limitations of such a comparison being discussed. The ERA-Interim and AMPS precipitation data agree very well. However, the correspondence between high precipitation in ERA-Interim and high snow accumulation at the AWSs is relatively weak. High-precipitation events at both Halvfarryggen and Kohnen are typically associated with amplified upper level waves. This large-scale atmospheric flow pattern is preceded by the downstream development of a Rossby wave train from the eastern South Pacific several days before the precipitation event. At the surface, a cyclone located over the Weddell Sea is the main synoptic ingredient for high precipitation both at Halvfarryggen and at Kohnen. A blocking anticyclone downstream is not a requirement for high precipitation per se, but a larger share of blocking occurrences during the highest-precipitation days in DML suggests that these blocks strengthen the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) into DML. A strong link between high precipitation and the IVT perpendicular to the local orography suggests that IVT could be used as a “proxy” for high precipitation, in particular over DML's interior.

Towards a data-driven analysis of hadronic light-by-light scattering

The hadronic light-by-light contribution to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon was recently analyzed in the framework of dispersion theory, providing a systematic formalism where all input quantities are expressed in terms of on-shell form factors and scattering amplitudes that are in principle accessible in experiment. We briefly review the main ideas behind this framework and discuss the various experimental ingredients needed for the evaluation of one- and two-pion intermediate states. In particular, we identify processes that in the absence of data for doubly-virtual pion–photon interactions can help constrain parameters in the dispersive reconstruction of the relevant input quantities, the pion transition form factor and the helicity partial waves for γ⁎γ⁎→ππ.

Timing of bacterial carriage sampling in vaccine trials: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND Pathogenic bacteria are often asymptomatically carried in the nasopharynx. Bacterial carriage can be reduced by vaccination and has been used as an alternative endpoint to clinical disease in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Vaccine efficacy (VE) is usually calculated as 1 minus a measure of effect. Estimates of vaccine efficacy from cross-sectional carriage data collected in RCTs are usually based on prevalence odds ratios (PORs) and prevalence ratios (PRs), but it is unclear when these should be measured. METHODS We developed dynamic compartmental transmission models simulating RCTs of a vaccine against a carried pathogen to investigate how VE can best be estimated from cross-sectional carriage data, at which time carriage should optimally be assessed, and to which factors this timing is most sensitive. In the models, vaccine could change carriage acquisition and clearance rates (leaky vaccine); values for these effects were explicitly defined (facq, 1/fdur). POR and PR were calculated from model outputs. Models differed in infection source: other participants or external sources unaffected by the trial. Simulations using multiple vaccine doses were compared to empirical data. RESULTS The combined VE against acquisition and duration calculated using POR (VEˆacq.dur, (1-POR)×100) best estimates the true VE (VEacq.dur, (1-facq×fdur)×100) for leaky vaccines in most scenarios. The mean duration of carriage was the most important factor determining the time until VEˆacq.dur first approximates VEacq.dur: if the mean duration of carriage is 1-1.5 months, up to 4 months are needed; if the mean duration is 2-3 months, up to 8 months are needed. Minor differences were seen between models with different infection sources. In RCTs with shorter intervals between vaccine doses it takes longer after the last dose until VEˆacq.dur approximates VEacq.dur. CONCLUSION The timing of sample collection should be considered when interpreting vaccine efficacy against bacterial carriage measured in RCTs.

Fossil vs. non-fossil sources of fine carbonaceous aerosols in four Chinese cities during the extreme winter haze episode of 2013

During winter 2013, extremely high concentrations (i.e., 4–20 times higher than the World Health Organization guideline) of PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm) mass concentrations (24 h samples) were found in four major cities in China including Xi'an, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Statistical analysis of a combined data set from elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), 14C and biomass-burning marker measurements using Latin hypercube sampling allowed a quantitative source apportionment of carbonaceous aerosols. Based on 14C measurements of EC fractions (six samples each city), we found that fossil emissions from coal combustion and vehicle exhaust dominated EC with a mean contribution of 75 ± 8% across all sites. The remaining 25 ± 8% was exclusively attributed to biomass combustion, consistent with the measurements of biomass-burning markers such as anhydrosugars (levoglucosan and mannosan) and water-soluble potassium (K+). With a combination of the levoglucosan-to-mannosan and levoglucosan-to-K+ ratios, the major source of biomass burning in winter in China is suggested to be combustion of crop residues. The contribution of fossil sources to OC was highest in Beijing (58 ± 5%) and decreased from Shanghai (49 ± 2%) to Xi'an (38 ± 3%) and Guangzhou (35 ± 7%). Generally, a larger fraction of fossil OC was from secondary origins than primary sources for all sites. Non-fossil sources accounted on average for 55 ± 10 and 48 ± 9% of OC and total carbon (TC), respectively, which suggests that non-fossil emissions were very important contributors of urban carbonaceous aerosols in China. The primary biomass-burning emissions accounted for 40 ± 8, 48 ± 18, 53 ± 4 and 65 ± 26% of non-fossil OC for Xi'an, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, respectively. Other non-fossil sources excluding primary biomass burning were mainly attributed to formation of secondary organic carbon (SOC) from non-fossil precursors such as biomass-burning emissions. For each site, we also compared samples from moderately to heavily polluted days according to particulate matter mass. Despite a significant increase of the absolute mass concentrations of primary emissions from both fossil and non-fossil sources during the heavily polluted events, their relative contribution to TC was even decreased, whereas the portion of SOC was consistently increased at all sites. This observation indicates that SOC was an important fraction in the increment of carbonaceous aerosols during the haze episode in China.

Detection and quantification of Flavobacterium psychrophilum in water and fish tissue samples by quantitative real time PCR.

BACKGROUND Flavobacterium psychrophilum is the agent of Bacterial Cold Water Disease and Rainbow Trout Fry Syndrome, two diseases leading to high mortality. Pathogen detection is mainly carried out using cultures and more rapid and sensitive methods are needed. RESULTS We describe a qPCR technique based on the single copy gene β' DNA-dependent RNA polymerase (rpoC). Its detection limit was 20 gene copies and the quantification limit 103 gene copies per reaction. Tests on spiked spleens with known concentrations of F. psychrophilum (106 to 101 cells per reaction) showed no cross-reactions between the spleen tissue and the primers and probe. Screening of water samples and spleens from symptomless and infected fishes indicated that the pathogen was already present before the outbreaks, but F. psychrophilum was only quantifiable in spleens from diseased fishes. CONCLUSIONS This qPCR can be used as a highly sensitive and specific method to detect F. psychrophilum in different sample types without the need for culturing. qPCR allows a reliable detection and quantification of F. psychrophilum in samples with low pathogen densities. Quantitative data on F. psychrophilum abundance could be useful to investigate risk factors linked to infections and also as early warning system prior to potential devastating outbreak.

Application of a computational model for complex fluvial ecosystems: The population dynamics of zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha as a case study

The potential and adaptive flexibility of population dynamic P-systems (PDP) to study population dynamics suggests that they may be suitable for modelling complex fluvial ecosystems, characterized by a composition of dynamic habitats with many variables that interact simultaneously. Using as a model a reservoir occupied by the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha, we designed a computational model based on P systems to study the population dynamics of larvae, in order to evaluate management actions to control or eradicate this invasive species. The population dynamics of this species was simulated under different scenarios ranging from the absence of water flow change to a weekly variation with different flow rates, to the actual hydrodynamic situation of an intermediate flow rate. Our results show that PDP models can be very useful tools to model complex, partially desynchronized, processes that work in parallel. This allows the study of complex hydroecological processes such as the one presented, where reproductive cycles, temperature and water dynamics are involved in the desynchronization of the population dynamics both, within areas and among them. The results obtained may be useful in the management of other reservoirs with similar hydrodynamic situations in which the presence of this invasive species has been documented.

Mutation of a single residue in the ba 3 oxidase specifically impairs protonation of the pump site

The ba3-type cytochrome c oxidase from Thermus thermophilus is a membrane-bound protein complex that couples electron transfer to O2 to proton translocation across the membrane. To elucidate the mechanism of the redox-driven proton pumping, we investigated the kinetics of electron and proton transfer in a structural variant of the ba3 oxidase where a putative "pump site" was modified by replacement of Asp372 by Ile. In this structural variant, proton pumping was uncoupled from internal electron transfer and O2 reduction. The results from our studies show that proton uptake to the pump site (time constant ∼65 μs in the wild-type cytochrome c oxidase) was impaired in the Asp372Ile variant. Furthermore, a reaction step that in the wild-type cytochrome c oxidase is linked to simultaneous proton uptake and release with a time constant of ∼1.2 ms was slowed to ∼8.4 ms, and in Asp372Ile was only associated with proton uptake to the catalytic site. These data identify reaction steps that are associated with protonation and deprotonation of the pump site, and point to the area around Asp372 as the location of this site in the ba3 cytochrome c oxidase.

3D Intervertebral Disc Localization and Segmentation from MR Images by Data-Driven Regression and Classification

In this paper we propose a new fully-automatic method for localizing and segmenting 3D intervertebral discs from MR images, where the two problems are solved in a unified data-driven regression and classification framework. We estimate the output (image displacements for localization, or fg/bg labels for segmentation) of image points by exploiting both training data and geometric constraints simultaneously. The problem is formulated in a unified objective function which is then solved globally and efficiently. We validate our method on MR images of 25 patients. Taking manually labeled data as the ground truth, our method achieves a mean localization error of 1.3 mm, a mean Dice metric of 87%, and a mean surface distance of 1.3 mm. Our method can be applied to other localization and segmentation tasks.