Unit roots and the welfare gains of cycle smoothing

li consumption is log-Normal and is decomposed into a linear deterministic trend and a stationary cycle, a surprising result in business-cycle research is that the welfare gains of eliminating uncertainty are relatively small. A possible problem with such calculations is the dichotomy between the trend and the cyclical components of consumption. In this paper, we abandon this dichotomy in two ways. First, we decompose consumption into a deterministic trend, a stochastic trend, and a stationary cyclical component, calculating the welfare gains of cycle smoothing. Calculations are carried forward only after a careful discussion of the limitations of macroeconomic policy. Second, still under the stochastic-trend model, we incorporate a variable slope for consumption depending negatively on the overall volatility in the economy. Results are obtained for a variety of preference parameterizations, parameter values, and different macroeconomic-policy goals. They show that, once the dichotomy in the decomposition in consumption is abandoned, the welfare gains of cycle smoothing may be substantial, especially due to the volatility effect.

The impact on the stationary state income of a pay-as-you-go system of social security

A model of overlapping generations in continuous time is composed. IndividuaIs pass through two distinct time periods during their life times. During the first period, they work, save and have a death probability equal to zero. During the second, from the periods T after birth, their probability of death changes to p and then they retire. Capital stock and the stationary state in come are calculated for two situations: in the first, people live from their accumulated capital after retirementj in the second, they live from a state transfer payment through income taxo To simplify matters, in this preliminary version, it is supposed that there is no population growth and that the instantaneous elasticity substitution of consumption is unitary.

Economic recovery from the Argentine great depression : institutions, expectations, and the change of macroeconomic regime

This work explores how Argentina overcame the Great Depression and asks whether active macroeconomic interventions made any contribution to the recovery. In particular, we study Argentine macroeconomic policy as it deviated from gold-standard orthodoxy after the final suspension of convertibility in 1929. As elsewhere, fiscal policy in Argentina was conservative, and had little power to smooth output. Monetary policy became heterodox after 1929. The first and most important stage of institutional change took place with the switch from a metallic monetary regime to a fiduciary regime in 1931; the Caja de Conversión (Conversion Office, a currency board) began rediscounting as a means to sterilize gold outflows and avoid deflationary pressures, thus breaking from orthodox "mIes of the game." However, the actual injections of liquidity were small' and were not enough to fully offset the incipient monetary contractions: the "Keynes" effect was weak or negative. Rather, recovery derived from changes in beliefs and expectations surrounding the shift in the monetary and exchange-rate regime,and the delinking of gold flows and the money base. Agents perceivod a new regime, as shown by the path of consumption, investment, and estimated ex ante real interest rates: the "Mundell" effect was dominant. Notably, this change of regime predated a later, and supposedly more significant, stage of institutional reform, namely the creation of the central bank in 1935. Still, the extent of intervention was weak, and insufficient to fully offset externaI shocks to prices and money. Argentine macropolicy was heterodox in terms of the change of regime, but still conservative in terms of the tentative scope of the measures taken .

Strategic manipulation of empirical tests

Theories can be produced by individuals seeking a good reputation of knowledge. Hence, a significant question is how to test theories anticipating that they might have been produced by (potentially uninformed) experts who prefer their theories not to be rejected. If a theory that predicts exactly like the data generating process is not rejected with high probability then the test is said to not reject the truth. On the other hand, if a false expert, with no knowledge over the data generating process, can strategically select theories that will not be rejected then the test can be ignorantly passed. These tests have limited use because they cannot feasibly dismiss completely uninformed experts. Many tests proposed in the literature (e.g., calibration tests) can be ignorantly passed. Dekel and Feinberg (2006) introduced a class of tests that seemingly have some power of dismissing uninformed experts. We show that some tests from their class can also be ignorantly passed. One of those tests, however, does not reject the truth and cannot be ignorantly passed. Thus, this empirical test can dismiss false experts.We also show that a false reputation of knowledge can be strategically sustained for an arbitrary, but given, number of periods, no matted which test is used (provided that it does not reject the truth). However, false experts can be discredited, even with bounded data sets, if the domain of permissible theories is mildly restricted.

A restatement of the welafare costs of inflation. The wast of scarce resources in the manufacturing , banking and household sectors

Lucas (2000) estimates that the US welfare costs of inflation are around 1% of GDP. This measurement is consistent with a speci…c distorting channel in terms of the Bailey triangle under the demand for monetary base schedule (outside money): the displacement of resources from the production of consumption goods to the household transaction time à la Baumol. Here, we consider also several new types of distortions in the manufacturing and banking industries. Our new evidences show that both banks and firms demand special occupational employments to avoid the inflation tax. We de…ne the concept of ”the foat labor”: The occupational employments that are aflected by the in‡ation rates. More administrative workers are hired relatively to the bluecollar workers for producing consumption goods. This new phenomenon makes the manufacturing industry more roundabout. To take into account this new stylized fact and others, we redo at same time both ”The model 5: A Banking Sector -2” formulated by Lucas (1993) and ”The Competitive Banking System” proposed by Yoshino (1993). This modelling allows us to characterize better the new types of misallocations. We …nd that the maximum value of the resources wasted by the US economy happened in the years 1980-81, after the 2nd oil shock. In these years, we estimate the excess resources that are allocated for every speci…c distorting channel: i) The US commercial banks spent additional resources of around 2% of GDP; ii) For the purpose of the firm foating time were used between 2.4% and 4.1% of GDP); and iii) For the household transaction time were allocated between 3.1% and 4.5 % of GDP. The Bailey triangle under the demand for the monetary base schedule represented around 1% of GDP, which is consistent with Lucas (2000). We estimate that the US total welfare costs of in‡ation were around 10% of GDP in terms of the consumption goods foregone. The big di¤erence between our results and Lucas (2000) are mainly due to the Harberger triangle in the market for loans (inside money) which makes part of the household transaction time, of the …rm ‡oat labor and of the distortion in the banking industry. This triangle arises due to the widening interest rates spread in the presence of a distorting inflation tax and under a fractionally reserve system. The Harberger triangle can represent 80% of the total welfare costs of inflation while the remaining percentage is split almost equally between the Bailey triangle and the resources used for the bank services. Finally, we formulate several theorems in terms of the optimal nonneutral monetary policy so as to compare with the classical monetary theory.

Uma análise de conteúdo escrito sobre as referências à responsabilidade social corporativa em instituições de ensino superior no Rio de Janeiro

Diante da importância dos conteúdos de responsabilidade social corporativa para a sociedade e empresas no mundo atual, a pesquisa foi realizada com o intuito de observar mais detalhadamente nos textos oficiais das instituições de ensino superior, as referencias à responsabilidade social corporativa, de acordo com Elkington (1997), e ao ensino oferecido em dez cursos de graduação em administração de empresas na cidade do Rio de Janeiro. O trabalho se baseia na análise de conteúdo de documentos disponibilizados pelos cursos de graduação na rede mundial de computadores, seguido de reflexão por meio de lentes teóricas de matrizes curriculares, aspectos de sociologia das profissões e formação de grade oculta. Conclui-se que há evidências de pouco foco dedicado às questões de RSC nos cursos de graduação, assim como um pequeno percentual de carga horária dedicada exclusivamente ao tema. No entanto, levando em consideração que os currículos podem estar relacionados à manutenção de poder e o apaziguamento de conteúdos emergentes para manutenção de forças hegemônicas, observamos que não podemos averiguar por meio da pesquisa baseada em análise de conteúdo de documentos escritos se o conteúdo relacionado à RSC está sendo ensinado de forma transversal no currículo, deixando aberta a possibilidade de pesquisa adicional para averiguar tal possibilidade.

Consumption-wealth ratio and expected stock returns: evidence from panel data

This paper investigates the role of consumption-wealth ratio on predicting future stock returns through a panel approach. We follow the theoretical framework proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), in which a model derived from a nonlinear consumer’s budget constraint is used to settle the link between consumption-wealth ratio and stock returns. Using G7’s quarterly aggregate and financial data ranging from the first quarter of 1981 to the first quarter of 2014, we set an unbalanced panel that we use for both estimating the parameters of the cointegrating residual from the shared trend among consumption, asset wealth and labor income, cay, and performing in and out-of-sample forecasting regressions. Due to the panel structure, we propose different methodologies of estimating cay and making forecasts from the one applied by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001). The results indicate that cay is in fact a strong and robust predictor of future stock return at intermediate and long horizons, but presents a poor performance on predicting one or two-quarter-ahead stock returns.

The impact of content marketing on attitudes and purchase intentions of online shoppers : the case videos & tutorials and user-generated content

This thesis was written as part of a Double-Degree Masters program in Management, with focus in Marketing. Aligned with the nature of the degree, this study aims to be a useful tool for managers and marketers, which conduct business online. This thesis is a study of Content Marketing in the content of online commercial product pages. Its aim is to understand how to use content marketing to drive conversion, by understanding consumer attitudes and purchase intention towards content. A in-depth study of existing theories and exploratory primary research was developed in other to attain these objectives. Business-to-consumer electronic commerce (B2C e-commerce) has provided consumers and online retailers with a more effective medium to perform online transactions through commercial websites. Although consumers have realized that the benefits of online shopping; such as time saving, minimizing effort, convenience, broader selection, and wider access to information, they are still greatly unwilling to shop online. Consumers shop essentially for two motives, to meet experiential (fun) or goal-oriented (efficiency) needs (Wolfinbarger & Gilly, 2001). The information provided by content marketing seeks to focus on consumers need for information and entertainment, instead of focusing on the brand. Thus, it is expected that the type of content format will have different effects on the attitudes and purchase intention on the online shopper, depending on the online shopping purpose. Concretely, a goal-oriented shopper should find user generated content (UGC) to be more valuable content formats, since they decrease the amount of search effort. While on the other hand, videos & tutorials (VT) might be perceived as more valuable for a consumer looking to spend time and being entertained through online shopping. The exploratory research was characterized by a survey experiment with online consumers. Participants were exposed to stimuli of content marketing tested according to their attitudes and purchase intention. The focus was to understand the impact of two different content marketing tactics—User-generated content and Videos & Tutorials—on attitudes and purchase intentions and how they interact with content complexity. The results indicate that content marketing in commercial product pages is relevant in driving consumer attitudes and purchase intentions. Consumers are not motivated by a specific content marketing tactic, unless that content has a certain level of complexity. In that case, Ur-Generated Content becomes a relevant tactic in product pages, however VT is not.

Vigilância eletrônica no trabalho bancário: do controle consentido ao totalitarismo corporativo

This dissertation addresses the electronic surveillance theme in the banking context. The research that originated it, which was held in an organization called for the fiction name Banco Total, started from the following driving question: How do workers at a bank perceive electronic surveillance at their process of work? The research s main objective was to comprehend how workers perceive electronic surveillance at their process of work. The study adopted an interdisciplinary perspective, having Management as the original field, establishing a dialogue with others disciplines, like Philosophy and Sociology. About its methodology, it s a qualitative research that addressed its object in oral (interviews with live history elements) way. . Ten individuals were interviewed. The analytical process utilized the hermeneutical-dialectics technique.. From the analyses (hermeneutics) of the data, the following themes have emerged: (i) Acquiescence ; (ii) Monitoring; (iii) Time and Motion; (iv) Fear; (v) Interdiction; and (vi) Resistance . From the discussion (dialectic) of the results, this work presents three synthetic propositions that culminate in the following dimensions (i) control; (ii) acquiescence; (iii) corporative totalitarianism. It can be concluded that electronic surveillance is one mechanism of control emerged from the apply of technology at Total Bank; that information technology has been improving the control mechanisms of management theories; and that the imbrications between management and material technology control mechanisms at a context where there is acquiescence by workers contribute for the emergency of corporative totalitarianism components

Paulo Freire e a pedagogia do oprimido: afinidades pós-coloniais

The main objective of the present research is to reflect on the affinities between post-colonial theories - analytical perspectives directed toward the discussion of colonialism and its effects on the contemporary social fabric - and Brazilian educator, Paulo Freire‟s (1921-1997) Pedagogy of the Oppressed, written at the end of the 1960‟s. The study aims to make the argument that the present reflections on the featured work is an example of a post-colonial theoretical framework, delineating a critical modus operandi of colonialism, particularly in its cultural and epistemic dimensions, delineating a problematization of the processes of cognitive domination set, above all, by the European colonization of the Latin American continent, with the formation of the modern-world-system (WALLERSTEIN, 2007), dated from the 16TH Century forward. From this stand point, and especially supported by the contributions of Boaventura de Sousa Santos on the sociology of absence, the present work accentuates Pedagogy of the Oppressed as a set of reflections that bring the possibility of a pedagogy of absence (SANTOS, 1996), having in mind that, this book deals with, the presuppositions of an educational action, which considers the plurality of knowledge and social practices by way of the establishment of a pedagogical practice of collective construction, emancipator and dialogic that arises from the encounter to the indolent reason (SANTOS, 2009) in which the silencing of the voices of the oppressed, construct their conditions of invisibility, promoting also the absence of the social questions inherent to the processes of teaching and learning. It is with this perspective, however, that post colonialism is considered a theoretical site for the affirmation and the reinvention of the Pedagogy of the Oppressed, an obligatory reference in the construction of a prudent knowledge for a decent life (SANTOS, 2006)

Indústria cultural e forró eletrônico no Rio Grande do Norte

The present study aimed to understand how and to what extent the electronic forró, currently hegemonic in the music market in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, establishes and maintains relations of domination in the social contexts in which it is produced, transmitted and received. Based, in significant form-content, on the writings of the first generation of theorists of the so-called Frankfurt School (Critical Theory), particularly with Theodor W. Adorno, and systematically using the contributions of the Cultural Studies (from the Centre for Contemporary Cultural Studies of Birmingham) and of the sociology of Pierre Bourdieu, this study aimed to perform, in the fertile intersection of these references, a critical possibility of interpretation of the electronic forró predominantly spread in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. To this end, aiming at a better apprehension of the so-called capital circuits/culture circuits , this study resulted from a qualitative investment of research, based on structured interviews with musicians, entrepreneurs of the sector and music consumers, as well as on the analysis of the themes contained in the official discography of the electronic forró band called Garota Safada (Shameless Girl). As a general empirical conclusion, it was possible to infer that far from the significant presence of domination or mere prevalence of oppositions, there is a relational pluralism of forms of domination and ways of resistances present in the production and consumption of electronic forró, regardless of gender, age, income, education or place of residence. However, the artifices of the cultural industry has been shown to be efficient: from large-scale businessmen to small producers enabled by the so-called open markets . The currentness of the concept of cultural industry is based on the idea that its products are offered systematically (the systematic insistence of everything to everyone) and on the notion that its production primarily meets the administrative criteria of control over the effects on the receiver (capacity of prescription of desires). Thus, the Adornian reflection on the pseudo-individualization leads to the inference that even in some of the most apparent ways of negotiation and/or refusal regarding the consumption of forró, certain behaviors of the cultural industry still prevail both in the very (re)interpretation of the forró and in the choice of other music genres also standardized, rationalized and massified. Therefore, despite the absence of cause-effect relation and the recognition of the popular capacity of re-elaboration and contestation of the media consumption, some world views prevailing in relation to the electronic forró establish or, at least, support some hegemonic ideologies, especially those concerning the life style, consumption and genre relations (fun by all means). Therefore, due the massification of certain songs, some ways of dissemination of values, beliefs and feelings are potentially experienced from the electronic forró. So, it is presumable that in the current advance of the process of semiformation (Halbbildung), the habitus of a part of the youth from the state of Rio Grande do Norte reinforces and is reinforced by the centrality of the trinomial fun, love and sex present in the songs, emphasized in some constructive practices of sense and in certain flows of social significance

Simetria na dança: vestígios matemáticos na prática da dança esportiva em cadeira de rodas

To investigate in practice of the Wheelchair Dancesport (WDS), the mathematics of the characteristic isometric movements of the dance of ChaChaCha was the generating subject of this study. The subjects and the locus of the research were the athletes dancers of the Associação Baiana de Dança em Cadeira de Rodas (ABDCR). Referred him study aimed at to describe reflections concerning the athletes' practicing dancers of the technical acting Wheelchair Dancesport, using the inherent mathematical knowledge to the isometric movements executed in the ChaChaCha. For that, I stimulated in the athlete dancer the need to be investigating of his/her own practice, motivating him/it to be searching of information that they collaborate with his/her technical refinement, proposing like this roads to make possible his/her growth, while dancer and, also, promoting of their own movements. To reach my objectives I dialogued with some specialists to understand, to the light of their theories as, Espaçonumerática, Sociology of the mathematics, Etnomathematical, Dance and Symmetry, as those spaces they interact with the atmosphere of the Wheelchair Dancesport and that contributions could supply to the study. However, two authors of the Dancesport for walking , Ried e Laird, they brought contributions that aided in the creation of a prototype for the study of isometric movements in practice of the modality promoting the interface between the theory and the practice. The study showed to be possible to navigate still with the Mathematical Education in an universe little known as the one of the Wheelchair Dancesport. And it is in this adapts that propose a more attentive glance to the illustrations executed by the athlete dancer wheelchair and walking , in the dance of the ChaChaCha, verifying and proposing an analysis with focus investigate, looking for mathematical tracks concerning the symmetry that you/they characterize some of their illustrations

Detection and Identification of Abnormalities in Customer Consumptions in Power Distribution Systems

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A educação informal para o consumo infantil e juvenil na televisão e na mídia

The consumption has become a major pillar of modern capitalism and at the same time, one of the factors that relate to social inequality. Karl Marx developed the theory of historical materialism which maintains a history of society determined by class struggle and the! exploitation of man by man. Considered to be overtaken by those who believe that Marxism is synonymous with real socialism, the Marxist ideals seem more present than in the Western world which each individual takes the individualization (loss of sense of public and collective) and the alienation by the work. Weassumed we could work on these issues in student education, even in elementary school, through questioning of the consumer society, with the criticism of television and the media, the main promoter of the current sense of consumption, as an initial step that could lead to future autonomy of theindividual. The theory of ideology and ideas of Paulo Freire's liberating education theory permeated the experience that happened as a participant observation of groups in the discipline of sociology in the unit 2 of the Colégio Pedro II in Rio de Janeiro, the state capital, an institution under the direct administration Ministry of Education. Wehave found fertile ground in which the students were able to understand and question the meaning of advertising media

Combinatorial identities and quantum state densities of supersymmetric sigma models on N-folds

There is a remarkable connection between the number of quantum states of conformal theories and the sequence of dimensions of Lie algebras. In this paper, we explore this connection by computing the asymptotic expansion of the elliptic genus and the microscopic entropy of black holes associated with (supersymmetric) sigma models. The new features of these results are the appearance of correct prefactors in the state density expansion and in the coefficient of the logarithmic correction to the entropy.