A test of the predictive validity of non-linear QALY models using time trade-off utilities

This paper presents a test of the predictive validity of various classes ofQALY models (i.e., linear, power and exponential models). We first estimatedTTO utilities for 43 EQ-5D chronic health states and next these states wereembedded in health profiles. The chronic TTO utilities were then used topredict the responses to TTO questions with health profiles. We find that thepower QALY model clearly outperforms linear and exponential QALY models.Optimal power coefficient is 0.65. Our results suggest that TTO-based QALYcalculations may be biased. This bias can be avoided using a power QALY model.

Protection of pancreatic beta-cells by high density lipoproteins

SUMMARYThe incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is increasing worldwide and is linked to the enhancement of obesity. The principal cause of T2D development is insulin resistance, which lead to the increase of insulin production by the pancreatic beta-cells. In a pathological environment, namely dyslipidaemia, hyperglycaemia and inflammation, beta-cell compensation will fail in more vulnerable cells and diabetes will occur. High Density Lipoproteins (HDLs), commonly named "good cholesterol" are known to be atheroprotective. Low levels of HDLs are associated with increased prevalence of cardiovascular disease but are also an independent risk factor for the development of T2D. HDLs were demonstrated to protect pancreatic beta-cells against several stresses. However the molecular mechanisms of the protection are unknown and the objectives of this work were to try to elucidate the way how HDLs protect. The first approach was a broad screening of genes regulated by the stress and HDLs. A microarray analysis was performed on beta-cells stressed by serum deprivation and rescued by HDLs. Among the genes regulated, we focused on 4E-BP1, a cap-dependent translational inhibitor. In addition, HDLs were also found to protect against several other stresses.Endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress is a mechanism that may play a role in the onset of T2D. The unfolded protein response (UPR) is a physiological process that aims at maintaining ER homeostasis in conditions where the protein folding and secretion is perturbed. Specific signalling pathways are involved in the increase of folding, export and degradation capacity of the ER. However, in case where the stress is prolonged, this mechanism turns to be pathological, by inducing cell death effector pathways, leading to beta-cell apoptosis. In our study, we discovered that HDLs were protective against ER stress induced by drugs and physiological stresses such as saturated free fatty acids. HDLs protected beta-cells by promoting ER homeostasis via the improvement of the folding and trafficking od proteins from the ER to the Golgi apparatus.Altogether our results suggest that HDLs are important for beta-cell function and survival, by protecting them from several stresses and acting on ER homeostasis. This suggests that attempt in keeping normal HDLs levels or function in patients is crucial to lessen the development of T2D.RÉSUMÉL'incidence du diabète de type 2 est en constante augmentation et est fortement liée à l'accroissement du taux d'obésité. La cause principale du diabète de type 2 est la résistance à l'insuline, qui entraîne une surproduction d'insuline par les cellules bêta pancréatiques. Dans un environnement pathologique associé à l'obésité (dyslipidémie, hyperglycémie et inflammation), les cellules bêta les plus vulnérables ne sont plus capables de compenser en augmentant leur production d'insuline, dysfonctionnent, ce qui conduit à leur mort par apoptose. Les lipoprotéines de hautes densités (HDLs), communément appelées (( bon cholestérol », sont connues pour leurs propriétés protectrices contre l'athérosclérose. Des niveaux bas de HDLs sanguins sont associés au risque de développer un diabète de type 2. Les HDLs ont également montré des propriétés protectrices contre divers stresses dans la cellule bêta. Cependant, les mécanismes de protection restent encore inconnus et l'objectif de ce travail a été d'investiguer les mécanismes moléculaires de protection des HDLs. La première approche choisie a été une étude du profil d'expression génique par puce à ADN afin d'identifier les gènes régulés par le stress et les HDLs. Parmi les gènes régulés, notre intérêt s'est porté sur 4E-BP1, un inhibiteur de la traduction coiffe- dépendante, dont l'induction par le stress était corrélée avec une augmentation de l'apoptose. Suite à cette étude, les HDLs ont également montrés un rôle protecteur contre d'autres stresses. Il s'agit particulièrement du stress du réticulum endoplasmique (RE), qui est un mécanisme qui semble jouer un rôle clé dans le développement du diabète. L'UPR (« Unfolded Protein Response ») est un processus physiologique tendant à maintenir l'homéostasie du réticulum endoplasmique, organelle prépondérante pour la fonction des cellules sécrétrices, notamment lorsqu'elle est soumise à des conditions extrêmes telles que des perturbations de la conformation tertiaire des protéines ou de la sécrétion. Dans ces cas, des voies de signalisation moléculaires sont activées, ce qui mène à l'exportation des protéines mal repliées, à leur dégradation et à l'augmentation de l'expression de chaperonnes capables d'améliorer le repliement des protéines mal formées. Toutefois, en cas de stress persistant, ce mécanisme de protection s'avère être pathologique. En induisant des voies de signalisation effectrices de l'apoptose, il conduit finalement au développement du diabète. Dans cette étude, nous avons démontré que les HDLs étaient capables de protéger la cellule bêta contre le stress du RE induits par des inhibiteurs (thapsigargine, tunicamycine) ou des stresses physiologiques tels que les acides gras libres. Les HDLs ont la capacité d'améliorer l'homéostasie du RE, notamment en favorisant le repliement et le transfert des protéines du RE à l'appareil de Golgi.En résumé, ces données suggèrent que les HDLs sont bénéfiques pour la survie des cellules bêta soumises à des stresses impliqués dans le développement du diabète, notamment en restaurant l'homéostasie du RE. Ces résultats conduisent à soutenir que le maintien des taux de cholestérol joue un rôle important dans la limitation de l'incidence du diabète.

Bionomic data and larval density of Scarabaeidae (Pleurosticti) in sugarcane in the central region of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Bionomic data and larval density of Scarabaeidae (Pleurosticti) in sugarcane in the central region of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Phytophagous larvae of Scarabaeidae cause damage to diverse crops. Information on these pests is scarce; therefore, the objective of this study was to determine biological aspects and larval density of species occurring in an area of sugarcane. The studies were developed in Sidrolândia from April 2009 to March 2010. Scarab beetle larvae were collected in sugarcane roots every fifteen days, taken to the laboratory and reared to obtain the adults and determine biological parameters. A total of 2,656 larvae were collected, being 162 Liogenys fuscus, 120 Cyclocephala verticalis, 37 Cyclocephala forsteri, and 2337 Anomonyx sp. In January, 53.65 larvae m-2 were obtained, and the most abundant species was Anomonyx sp, representing 87.99% of the total larvae collected. From November to March, the greatest densities of Anomonyx were observed in the field. The adults of this species occurred from May to September, and egg laying from September to November. Eggs measured 1.1 x 1.7 mm, and incubation period last 15.4 days. First instar larvae were observed mainly in October; second instar larvae from November to April; and third instar from January to July. Pupae were observed from May to August. The most abundant scarab beetle, Anomonyx sp. in roots of sugarcane presents one generation per year in Sidrolândia, MS.

Inequalities for a new data-based method for selecting nonparametric density estimates

We continue the development of a method for the selection of a bandwidth or a number of design parameters in density estimation. We provideexplicit non-asymptotic density-free inequalities that relate the $L_1$ error of the selected estimate with that of the best possible estimate,and study in particular the connection between the richness of the classof density estimates and the performance bound. For example, our methodallows one to pick the bandwidth and kernel order in the kernel estimatesimultaneously and still assure that for {\it all densities}, the $L_1$error of the corresponding kernel estimate is not larger than aboutthree times the error of the estimate with the optimal smoothing factor and kernel plus a constant times $\sqrt{\log n/n}$, where $n$ is the sample size, and the constant only depends on the complexity of the family of kernels used in the estimate. Further applications include multivariate kernel estimates, transformed kernel estimates, and variablekernel estimates.

The predictive value of trabecular bone score (TBS) on whole lumbar vertebrae mechanics: an ex vivo study.

We investigated the association of trabecular bone score (TBS) with microarchitecture and mechanical behavior of human lumbar vertebrae. We found that TBS reflects vertebral trabecular microarchitecture and is an independent predictor of vertebral mechanics. However, the addition of TBS to areal BMD (aBMD) did not significantly improve prediction of vertebral strength. INTRODUCTION: The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level measure of texture using a modified experimental variogram which can be extracted from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. The current study aimed to confirm whether TBS is associated with trabecular microarchitecture and mechanics of human lumbar vertebrae, and if its combination with BMD improves prediction of fracture risk. METHODS: Lumbar vertebrae (L3) were harvested fresh from 16 donors. The anteroposterior and lateral bone mineral content (BMC) and areal BMD (aBMD) of the vertebral body were measured using DXA; then, the TBS was extracted using TBS iNsight software (Medimaps SA, France). The trabecular bone volume (Tb.BV/tissue volume, TV), trabecular thickness (Tb.Th), degree of anisotropy, and structure model index (SMI) were measured using microcomputed tomography. Quasi-static uniaxial compressive testing was performed on L3 vertebral bodies to assess failure load and stiffness. RESULTS: The TBS was significantly correlated to Tb.BV/TV and SMI (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.58 and -0.62; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.02, 0.01), but not related to BMC and BMD. TBS was significantly correlated with stiffness (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.64; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.007), independently of bone mass. Using stepwise multiple regression models, we failed to demonstrate that the combination of BMD and TBS was better at explaining mechanical behavior than either variable alone. However, the combination TBS, Tb.Th, and BMC did perform better than each parameter alone, explaining 79 % of the variability in stiffness. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, TBS was associated with microarchitecture parameters and with vertebral mechanical behavior, but TBS did not improve prediction of vertebral biomechanical properties in addition to aBMD.

Interaction between Musca domestica L. and its predator Muscina stabulans (Fallén) (Diptera, Muscidae): effects of prey density and food source abundance

Interaction between Musca domestica L. and its predator Muscina stabulans (Fallén) (Diptera, Muscidae): Effects of prey density and food source abundance. The objective of this work was to evaluate the influence of prey density and food source abundance on the predatory behavior of Muscina stabulans over M. domestica. Three predator/prey proportions were evaluated (1:1, 1:3 and 1:6), using 100 third instar predator larvae against second instar prey larvae. Each proportion was maintained using three different levels of food substrate (25, 50 and 100 g). The experiments were carried out in triplicate in BOD incubators (25ºC, UR 70% ± 10% and 12 h photoperiod). The mortality of the M. domestica larvae was 100% under all conditions, except in the 1:6 predator/prey proportion, at the 50g and 100g food substrate levels, where it was 99.99% and 99.22%, respectively. There was a significant increase in the development period of M. stabulans in relation to the increase in prey density and decrease in quantity of food substrate. An increase in the proportion of individuals and a reduction in the amount of resource slowed down larval development. Muscina stabulans pupal weight was proportional to the increase in prey density and the amount of food substrate. The proportion or the density influenced the survival of M. stabulans, with no difference in relation to the amount of food source and consequently in the interaction of the factors. There was no difference between the 1:1 and 1:3 predator-prey densities, with both differing from the 1:6 density.

The predictive value of preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide in children undergooing heart surgery.

Introduction: Low cardiac output syndrome is frequent in childrenafter heart surgery for congenital heart disease and may result in pooroutcome and increased morbidity. In the adult population, preoperativebrain natriuretic peptide (BNP) was shown to be predictive of postoperative complications. In children, the value of preoperative BNP onpostoperative outcome is not so clear. The aim of this study was todetermine the predictive value of preoperative BNP on postoperativeoutcome and low cardiac output syndrome in children after heartsurgery for congenital heart disease.Methods: We examined, retrospectively, the postoperative course of97 pediatric patients (mean age 3.7 years, range 0-14 years old) whounderwent heart surgery in a tertiary care pediatric intensive caresetting. NTproBNP was measured preoperatively in all patients(median 412 pg/ml, range 12-35'000 pg/ml). Patients were divided intothree groups according to their NTproBNP levels (group 1: 0-300 pg/ml, group 2: 300-600 pg/ml, group 3: >600 pg/ml) and then,correlations with postoperative outcomes were examined.Results: We found that patients with a high preoperative BNP requiredmore frequently prolonged (>2 days) mechanical ventilation (33%vs 40% vs 61%, p = 0.045) and stayed more frequently longer than6 days in the intensive care unit (42% vs 50% vs 71%, p = 0.03).However, high preoperative BNP was not correlated with occurrenceof low cardiac output syndrome.Conclusion: Preoperative BNP cannot be used, in children, as areliable and sole predictor of postoperative low cardiac outputsyndrome. However it may help identify, before surgery, those patientsat risk of having a difficult postoperative course.

Comparative effects of teriparatide and ibandronate on spine bone mineral density (BMD) and microarchitecture (TBS) in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis: a 2-year open-label study.

Treatment effects over 2 years of teriparatide vs. ibandronate in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis were compared using lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD) and trabecular bone score (TBS). Teriparatide induced larger increases in BMD and TBS compared to ibandronate, suggesting a more pronounced effect on bone microarchitecture of the bone anabolic drug. INTRODUCTION: The trabecular bone score (TBS) is an index of bone microarchitecture, independent of bone mineral density (BMD), calculated from anteroposterior spine dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans. The potential role of TBS for monitoring treatment response with bone-active substances is not established. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of recombinant human 1-34 parathyroid hormone (teriparatide) and the bisphosphonate ibandronate (IBN), on lumbar spine (LS) BMD and TBS in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. METHODS: Two patient groups with matched age, body mass index (BMI), and baseline LS BMD, treated with either daily subcutaneous teriparatide (N = 65) or quarterly intravenous IBN (N = 122) during 2 years and with available LS BMD measurements at baseline and 2 years after treatment initiation were compared. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics (overall mean ± SD) were similar between groups in terms of age 67.9 ± 7.4 years, body mass index 23.8 ± 3.8 kg/m(2), BMD L1-L4 0.741 ± 0.100 g/cm(2), and TBS 1.208 ± 0.100. Over 24 months, teriparatide induced a significantly larger increase in LS BMD and TBS than IBN (+7.6 % ± 6.3 vs. +2.9 % ± 3.3 and +4.3 % ± 6.6 vs. +0.3 % ± 4.1, respectively; P < 0.0001 for both). LS BMD and TBS were only weakly correlated at baseline (r (2) = 0.04) with no correlation between the changes in BMD and TBS over 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, a 2-year treatment with teriparatide led to a significantly larger increase in LS BMD and TBS than IBN, suggesting that teriparatide had more pronounced effects on bone microarchitecture than IBN.

Predictive value of the MGMT promoter methylation status in metastatic melanoma patients receiving first-line temozolomide plus bevacizumab in the trial SAKK 50/07.

The O6-methylguanine-DNA-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation status is a predictive parameter for the response of malignant gliomas to alkylating agents such as temozolomide. First clinical trials with temozolomide plus bevacizumab therapy in metastatic melanoma patients are ongoing, although the predictive value of the MGMT promoter methylation status in this setting remains unclear. We assessed MGMT promoter methylation in formalin-fixed, primary tumor tissue of metastatic melanoma patients treated with first-line temozolomide and bevacizumab from the trial SAKK 50/07 by methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction. In addition, the MGMT expression levels were also analyzed by MGMT immunohistochemistry. Eleven of 42 primary melanomas (26%) revealed a methylated MGMT promoter. Promoter methylation was significantly associated with response rates CR + PR versus SD + PD according to RECIST (response evaluation criteria in solid tumors) (p<0.05) with a trend to prolonged median progression-free survival (8.1 versus 3.4 months, p>0.05). Immunohistochemically different protein expression patterns with heterogeneous and homogeneous nuclear MGMT expression were identified. Negative MGMT expression levels were associated with overall disease stabilization CR+PR+SD versus PD (p=0.05). There was only a poor correlation between MGMT methylation and lack of MGMT expression. A significant proportion of melanomas have a methylated MGMT promoter. The MGMT promoter methylation status may be a promising predictive marker for temozolomide therapy in metastatic melanoma patients. Larger sample sizes may help to validate significant differences in survival type endpoints.

Development of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for serodiagnosis of ringworm infection in cattle.

The aim of this study was to develop an in-house enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for the serological diagnosis of ringworm infection in cattle. We used available recombinant forms of Trichophyton rubrum dipeptidyl peptidase V (TruDppV) and T. rubrum leucin aminopeptidase 2 (TruLap2), which are 98% identical to Trichophyton verrucosum orthologues. Field serum samples from 135 cattle with ringworm infection, as confirmed by direct microscopy, fluorescence microscopy, and PCR, and from 55 cattle without any apparent skin lesions or history of ringworm infection that served as negative controls were used. Sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values were determined to evaluate the diagnostic value of our ELISA. Overall, the ELISAs based on recombinant TruDppV and TruLap2 discriminated well between infected animals and healthy controls. Highly significant differences (P < 0.0001, Mann-Whitney U test) were noted between optical density values obtained when sera from infected versus control cattle were tested. The ELISA developed for the detection of specific antibodies against DppV gave 89.6% sensitivity, 92.7% specificity, a 96.8% positive predictive value, and a 78.4% negative predictive value. The recombinant TruLap2-based ELISA displayed 88.1% sensitivity, 90.9% specificity, a 95.9% positive predictive value, and a 75.7% negative predictive value. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first ELISA based on recombinant antigens for assessing immune responses to ringworm infection in cattle; it is particularly suitable for epidemiological studies and also for the evaluation of vaccines and/or vaccination procedures.

Low density polyethylene (LDPE) passive samplers for the investigation of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) point sources in rivers

This study aims to provide a passive sampling approach which can be routinely used to investigate polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) sources in rivers. The approach consists of deploying low density polyethylene (LDPE) strips downstream and upstream of potential PCB sources as well as in their water discharges. Concentrations of indicator PCBs (iPCBs) absorbed in samplers (Cs) from upstream and downstream sites are compared with each other to reveal increases of PCB levels. Cs measured in water discharges are used to determine if released amounts of PCBs are compatible with increases revealed in the river. As water velocity can greatly vary along a river stretch and influences the uptake at each site in a different way, differences in velocity have to be taken into account to correctly interpret Cs. LDPE strips were exposed to velocities between 1.6 and 37 cm s−1 using a channel system built in the field. Relationships between velocity and Cs were established for each iPCB to determine the expected change in Cs due to velocity variations. For PCBs 28 and 52, this change does not exceed a factor 2 for velocity variations in the range from 1.6 to 100 cm s−1 (extrapolated data above 37 cm s−1). For PCBs 101, 138, 153 and 180, this change only exceeds a factor 2 in the case of large velocity variations. The approach was applied in the Swiss river Venoge to first conduct a primary investigation of potential PCB sources and then conduct thorough investigations of two suspected sources.

The yield of high-density electric source imaging in focal epilepsy

Background: EEG is the cornerstone of epilepsy diagnostics and mandatory to determine the underlying epilepsy syndrome (e.g. focal vs idiopathic generalized). However, its potential as imaging tool is still underrecognized. In the present study, we aim to determine the prerequisites of maximal benefit of electric source imaging (ESI) to localize the irritative zone in patients with focal epilepsy. Methods: 150 patients suffering from focal epilepsy and with minimum 1 year post-operative follow-up were studied prospectively by reviewers blinded to the underlying diagnosis and outcome. We evaluated the influence of two important factors on sensitivity and specificity of ESI: the number of electrodes (low resolution, LR-ESI: \30 vs. high resolution, HR-ESI: 128-256 electrodes), and the use of individual MRI (i-MRI) vs. template MRI (t-MRI) as head model.Results: ESI had a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 87% when HR-ESI with i-MRI was used. Using LR-ESI, sensitivity decreased to 68%, or even 57% when only t-MRI was available. The sensitivity of HR-ESI/i-MRI compared favorably with those of MRI (76%), PET (69%) and ictal/interictal SPECT (64%).Interpretation: This study on a large patient group shows excellent sensitivity and specificity of ESI if 128 EEG channels or more are used for ESI and if the results are co-registered to the patient's individual MRI. Localization precision is as high as or even higher than established brain imaging techniques, providing excellent costeffectiveness in epilepsy evaluation. HR-ESI appears to be a valuable additional imaging tool, given that larger electrode arrays are easily and rapidly applied with modern EEG equipment and that structural MRI is nearly always available for these patients.