Incomplete information games of conflict and collective action

My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.

W stronę radykalnego pluralizmu religijnego

Książka stanowi poszerzoną i uzupełnioną wersję pracy magisterskiej, napisanej pod kierunkiem prof. Tadeusza Buksińskiego w Instytucie Filozofii im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu.

Essays on Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Investment Dynamics

Understanding how imperfect information affects firms' investment decision helps answer important questions in economics, such as how we may better measure economic uncertainty; how firms' forecasts would affect their decision-making when their beliefs are not backed by economic fundamentals; and how important are the business cycle impacts of changes in firms' productivity uncertainty in an environment of incomplete information. This dissertation provides a synthetic answer to all these questions, both empirically and theoretically. The first chapter, provides empirical evidence to demonstrate that survey-based forecast dispersion identifies a distinctive type of second moment shocks different from the canonical volatility shocks to productivity, i.e. uncertainty shocks. Such forecast disagreement disturbances can affect the distribution of firm-level beliefs regardless of whether or not belief changes are backed by changes in economic fundamentals. At the aggregate level, innovations that increase the dispersion of firms' forecasts lead to persistent declines in aggregate investment and output, which are followed by a slow recovery. On the contrary, the larger dispersion of future firm-specific productivity innovations, the standard way to measure economic uncertainty, delivers the ``wait and see" effect, such that aggregate investment experiences a sharp decline, followed by a quick rebound, and then overshoots. At the firm level, data uncovers that more productive firms increase investments given rises in productivity dispersion for the future, whereas investments drop when firms disagree more about the well-being of their future business conditions. These findings challenge the view that the dispersion of the firms' heterogeneous beliefs captures the concept of economic uncertainty, defined by a model of uncertainty shocks. The second chapter presents a general equilibrium model of heterogeneous firms subject to the real productivity uncertainty shocks and informational disagreement shocks. As firms cannot perfectly disentangle aggregate from idiosyncratic productivity because of imperfect information, information quality thus drives the wedge of difference between the unobserved productivity fundamentals, and the firms' beliefs about how productive they are. Distribution of the firms' beliefs is no longer perfectly aligned with the distribution of firm-level productivity across firms. This model not only explains why, at the macro and micro level, disagreement shocks are different from uncertainty shocks, as documented in Chapter 1, but helps reconcile a key challenge faced by the standard framework to study economic uncertainty: a trade-off between sizable business cycle effects due to changes in uncertainty, and the right amount of pro-cyclicality of firm-level investment rate dispersion, as measured by its correlation with the output cycles.

Obesidad, sobrepeso y condiciones socioeconómicas. El caso argentino

Obesity has been classified by the World Health Organization as a worldwide epidemic -- This issue is a growing field in economics due to pathologies associated with overweight, the significant impact on healthcare costs and consequent deterioration of welfare -- This paper shows the analysis of the results from the National Survey of Risk Factors in order to identify the role of socioeconomic conditions of obesity and overweight based on panel data models -- The results indicate that the income level and sedentary lifestyle have positively influenced obesity and overweight, whereas the education and medical coverage are not relevant when explaining the differences between provinces in overweight prevalence, but become significant in the obesity rates variations

What toleration means to contemporary liberalism?

Toleration is a key concept of liberalism, both from the historical and conceptual points of view. On the other hand, as people’s freedom to live according to their moral and religious ideas has long become a basic value for liberal societies and their political constitutions, it is reasonable to understand that there is nothing to be tolerated nor by citizens neither by the State. However, a part of the scope and meaning of the fundamental rights and freedoms is subject to what John Rawls calls reasonable disagreements and this is a field where toleration understood in the classic way is compatible with equality: not to intervene against that which is being disapproved understood has a raison d'être. Since the 1980s, toleration has been present in the debates on how to deal with pluralism in a constitutional democracy. This has to be connected to the rise of identity politics: political and intellectual movements such as multiculturalism or comunitarism that questioned whether social order based on neutral criteria was either possible or desirable or both things at the same time. Outstanding liberal philosophers were among those demanding political priority for comunitarian values and those who showed interest for toleration as a key concept to articulate pluralism. Key distinctions between them can be explained as the result of the different approaches they take when facing classical theories on toleration: whereas John Locke’s is a major influence on Rawls, John Stuart Mill’s is on the others, while Gray, Walzer and Rorty follow Isaiah Berlin’s reading of Mill.

Systematic review of the impact of unemployment on levels of happiness

The wealth on na economy is traditionally measured by its level of productivity. However, do countries with the highest level of productivity report equal levels of happiness and general well-being? As a matter of fact, there is no direct relationship between both variables and there can actually be, from a productive point of view, less wealthy countries reporting higher levels oh hapiness. hence, there have been recente studies and theriores- such as the Economics of Happiness- that are attempting to demonstrate the term hapiness has made its way into economics literature as the result of the dissatisfaction of economists who believe hapiness should become a matter of study in economics. Onde of the variables aconomists most research about- unemployment- has a direst relationship with happiness, which is why it is particular importante for economics to study it. As many authors have been suggesting, arguing and proving, the autonomy- both methodological and philsophial-, reliability and added value of happiness would contribute fo a more complete economic analysis. Althougth there have beeen many failed attempts to incorporate happiness as a study variable in economics, this new current is expected to succeed, not only due to the rising importance of happiness in people`s daily lives, but also, and mostly, due to the increasing number of authors that are investigating and defending it beingn studied by economics. The fact that this time the "happiness" variable is seen as multidisciplinar and not only assigned to na economic point economics will not come to fail this time around.

El legado de los flujos migratorios hacia la península de Crimea entre 1860 – 1991 en la crisis política de 2014

La presente investigación propone un análisis sobre la crisis política de Crimea en 2014 a partir del influjo que las migraciones desde Rusia han tenido en la historia reciente. Así, a partir de la evaluación de algunos de los momentos de inmigración más representativos en los últimos dos siglos (1860, 1928 y 1991) se vincula el proceso de construcción de la identidad de los inmigrantes -transversal en diferentes periodos históricos en Crimea- con el desarrollo de los eventos de 2014. Lo anterior permite identificar un cierto legado de la migración hacia Crimea en el desarrollo de la crisis, cuyo resultado principal ha sido la anexión de facto de Crimea a Rusia. Ésta no habría sido posible sin el particular ánimo de afinidad con la idea de Rusia –o Russianness- de la mayoría de los habitantes de la península, cuya presencia en la región se explica en parte, a través de los procesos migratorios antes descritos.

Los economistas colombianos y el problema de la desigualdad

Este trabajo tiene el propósito de responder cómo ha cambiado la manera en que los economistas colombianos hablan sobre “desigualdad” a partir de la segunda mitad del siglo XX.

Diferencias regionales en las estructuras de ingresos laborales en Colombia

Dada la persistencia de las diferencias en ingresos laborales por regiones en Colombia, el presente artículo propone cuantificar la magnitud de este diferencial que es atribuida a la diferencia en estructuras de mercado laboral, entendiendo esta última como la diferencia en los retornos a las características de la fuerza laboral. Para ello se propone el uso de un método de descomposición del tipo Oaxaca- Blinder y se compara a Bogotá –la ciudad con mayores ingresos laborales- con otras ciudades principales. Los resultados obtenidos al conducir el ejercicio de descomposición muestran que las diferencias en estructura están a favor de Bogotá y que estas explican más de la mitad de la diferencia total, indicando que si se quieren reducir las disparidades de ingresos laborales entre ciudades no es suficiente con calificar la fuerza laboral y que es necesario indagar por las causas que hacen que los retornos a las características difieran entre ciudades.

Synthetic portfolio for event studies: Estimating the effects of volatility call auctions

We propose a method denoted as synthetic portfolio for event studies in market microstructure that is particularly interesting to use with high frequency data and thinly traded markets. The method is based on Synthetic Control Method and provides a robust data driven method to build a counterfactual for evaluating the effects of the volatility call auctions. We find that SMC could be used if the loss function is defined as the difference between the returns of the asset and the returns of a synthetic portfolio. We apply SCM to test the performance of the volatility call auction as a circuit breaker in the context of an event study. We find that for Colombian Stock Market securities, the asynchronicity of intraday data reduces the analysis to a selected group of stocks, however it is possible to build a tracking portfolio. The realized volatility increases after the auction, indicating that the mechanism is not enhancing the price discovery process.

Influencia del líder en el clima organizacional

En este trabajo se evidenciará cómo el liderazgo y el clima organizacional, que son dos componentes importantes dentro de una organización, están estrechamente ligados de tal forma que uno se ve afectado por el otro bien sea de manera positiva o negativa. Así de esta manera quisimos evidenciar este lazo entre liderazgo y clima organizacional con base en el liderazgo auténtico, el cual surge como una nueva teoría alrededor de varios componentes esenciales en el líder: conciencia de sí mismo, transparencia en las relaciones, procesamiento equilibrado y moral internalizada (Walumbwa, Avolio, Gardner, Wernsing, Peterson, 2008). En la misión empresarial realizada en la ciudad de Nueva York desarrollamos nuestro trabajo de campo. Visitamos empresas de reconocimiento a nivel mundial tales como: Google, Bloomberg, N&C Company y Procolombia. En estas empresas investigamos por medio de encuestas qué estilo de liderazgo existía y lo contrastamos con el clima organizacional. Para nosotros la experiencia fue muy enriquecedora pues todas las organizaciones nos brindaron información muy importante para el desarrollo de la investigación. Encontramos que las empresas siguen un patrón de comportamiento similar: el trabajo en equipo, la innovación, la autonomía, la comunicación, la autoevaluación y la transparencia, fueron elementos que evidenciamos durante la misión empresarial realizada.

la influencia de la felicidad en las decisiones de inversión de activos de largo plazo para una muestra de siete gerentes financieros en la ciudad de Bogotá en el año 2016.

El presente artículo contribuye con la investigación de las Finanzas Corporativas del Comportamiento, rama de las finanzas corporativas que considera que el individuo que toma decisiones financieras no es completamente racional y que por hecho existen sesgos psicológicos que influyen en sus decisiones. Este documento se enfoca, desde el punto de vista conceptual y también mediante el análisis de un estudio de campo, en la influencia de la felicidad en las decisiones de inversión en activos de largo plazo para un grupo de siete gerentes ubicados en la ciudad de Bogotá en el año 2016. En el documento se abarca el concepto general de las finanzas corporativas del comportamiento, se define la felicidad y se presentan sub-variables determinantes para la felicidad del individuo como lo son: salud, balance vida/trabajo, educación y habilidades, conexiones sociales y medio ambiente. Finalmente se presenta cómo éstas afectan a los gerentes financieros en sus decisiones de acuerdo a la investigación realizada.

Essays on Innovative Activity and the Protection of Innovations

This dissertation looks at three widely accepted assumptions about how the patent system works: patent documents disclose inventions; this disclosure happens quickly, and patent owners are able to enforce patents. The first chapter estimates the effect of stronger trade secret protection on the number of patented innovations. When firms find it easier to protect business information, there is less need for patent protection, and accordingly less need for the disclosure of technical information that is required by patent law. The novel finding is that when it is easier to keep innovations, there is not only a reduction in the number of patents but also a sizeable reduction in disclosed knowledge per patent. The chapter then shows how this endogeneity of the amount of knowledge per patent can affect the measurement of innovation using patent data. The second chapter develops a game-theoretic model to study how the introduction of fee-shifting in US patent litigation would influence firms’ patenting propensities. When the defeated party to a lawsuit has to bear not only their own cost but also the legal expenditure of the winning party, manufacturing firms in the model unambiguously reduce patenting, with small firms affected the most. For fee-shifting to have the same effect as in Europe, the US legal system would require shifting of a much smaller share of fees. Lessons from European patent litigation may, therefore, have only limited applicability in the US case. The third chapter contains a theoretical analysis of the influence of delayed disclosure of patent applications by the patent office. Such a delay is a feature of most patent systems around the world but has so far not attracted analytical scrutiny. This delay may give firms various kinds of strategic (non-)disclosure incentives when they are competing for more than a single innovation.

Evaluating non-price effects of regulatory and competition enforcement interventions

This thesis provides an ex-post evaluation of the effects of regulatory and competition policy enforcement interventions on non-price dimensions of competition. Chapter 1 examines the effects of a merger between two large Dutch supermarket chains on the variety and composition of product assortment. Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 investigate, both theoretically and empirically, the effects of access regulation in fixed telecoms markets on incentives to invest in superior infrastructure technologies. Non-price effects, together with price effects, are crucial to shed light on the extent of competition in a market and assess the effectiveness of regulatory and competition authorities' interventions. When evaluating non-price effects, however, it is harder to draw conclusions on the overall impact on consumers' welfare.

Essays on asset pricing

The first chapter provides evidence that aggregate Research and Development (R&D) investment drives a persistent component in productivity growth and that this embodies a risk priced in financial markets. In a semi-endogenous growth model, this component is identified by the R&D in excess of equilibrium levels and can be approximated by the Error Correction Term in the cointegration between R&D and Total Factor Productivity. Empirically, the component results being well defined and it satisfies all key theoretical predictions: it exhibits appropriate persistency, it forecasts productivity growth, and it is associated with a cross-sectional risk premium. CAPM is the most foundational model in financial economics, but is known to empirically underestimate expected returns of low-risk assets and overestimate those with high risk. The second chapter studies how risks omission and funding tightness jointly contribute to explaining this anomaly, with the former affecting the definition of assets’ riskiness and the latter affecting how risk is remunerated. Theoretically, the two effects are shown to counteract each other. Empirically, the spread related to binding leverage constraints is found to be significant at 2% yearly. Nonetheless, average returns of portfolios that exploit this anomaly are found to mostly reflect omitted risks, in contrast to their employment in previous literature. The third chapter studies how ‘sustainability’ of assets affect discount rates, which is intrinsically mediated by the risk profile of the assets themselves. This has implications for the assessment of the sustainability-related spread and for hedging changes in the sustainability concern. This mechanism is tested on the ESG-score dimension for US data, with inconclusive evidence regarding the existence of an ESG-related premium in the first place. Also, the risk profile of the long-short ESG portfolio is not likely to impact the sign of its average returns with respect to the sustainability-spread, for the time being.