Empiricism in ecological economics: a perspective from complex systems theory

Economies are open complex adaptive systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium, and neo-classical environmental economics seems not to be the best way to describe the behaviour of such systems. Standard econometric analysis (i.e. time series) takes a deterministic and predictive approach, which encourages the search for predictive policy to ‘correct’ environmental problems. Rather, it seems that, because of the characteristics of economic systems, an ex-post analysis is more appropriate, which describes the emergence of such systems’ properties, and which sees policy as a social steering mechanism. With this background, some of the recent empirical work published in the field of ecological economics that follows the approach defended here is presented. Finally, the conclusion is reached that a predictive use of econometrics (i.e. time series analysis) in ecological economics should be limited to cases in which uncertainty decreases, which is not the normal situation when analysing the evolution of economic systems. However, that does not mean we should not use empirical analysis. On the contrary, this is to be encouraged, but from a structural and ex-post point of view.

Ensaios terapêuticos com penicilina: IV - Bouba - (Framboesia, pian, yaws): tratamento das ulcerações gomosas, periostites, osteites áreas de rarefação óssea e gangoza (Rhinopharyngitis mutilans)

Six patients of terciary yaws, were treated with Penicillin in small dosis at Evandro Chagas Hospital of the Oswaldo Cruz Institute. The lesions presented by the patients were: gummatous ulcerations, periostitis, osteitis, osteoporosis and gangoza (rhinopharyngitis mutilans). In all cases, clinic recovery were obtained, the time of treatment varying from 2 to 8 months. The total amount of oxford units 'per" subject varied from 48.000 to 586.800 Patients with bone lesions, ever after the treatment, has not showed complete recomposition of the bone structure, ever so aparently healing and with negative sorologics tests. Identical results has been observed in patient showing the same lesions and treated with neo-arsphenamine. The patients are still under observations at the Hospital.

O puru-puru da Amazônia (Pinta, Carate, Mal del Pinto etc)

1) "Purú-purú" é uma palavra indígena que quer dizer "pintado" ou "manchado", peculiar à Amazonia Brasileira. Com êsse nome é designada uma dermatose referida entre os selvicolas desde 1774, por Ribeiro Sampaio. Certas tribus, com alta incidência da moléstia passaram a ser cahamadas também "Purú-purús", o mesmo acontecendo com o rio onde habitavam - Rio Purús. 2) A doença existe na bacia do Rio Solimões e seus principais afluentes: Javari, Juruá, Purús, Içá, Japurá, e Negro. Por esses rios, o fóco da dermatose se continua nos países limitrofes com o Brasil: Guianas, Venezuela, Colombia, Perú (Equador) e Bolivia. 3) Desde 1890 essa dermatose foi relacionada à pinta (carate ou mal del pinto) por P. S. de Magalhães, idéa essa depois defendida por Juliano Moreira, Carlos Chagas, Roquete Pinto, Wappeus, O. da Fonseca Filho, Da Matta, Brumpt e outros, baseados na semelhança clínica e na terapêutica. Recentemente (1945), essa provavel identidade das duas dermatoses, recebeu fundamento sorológico de Biocca (que verificou a positividade das reações de Kline e Kahn em doentes de purú-purú), e, pelo presente trabalho, recebe base clínico-epidemio-anatomo-patológica. 4) Sob o ponto de vista clínico, as lesões cutaneas discromicas da moléstia, são de 3 órdens: a) lesões papulo-eritemato-escamosas, isoladas ou não, arredondadas, pruriginosas e de bordos nitidos; b) lesões maculo-escamosas, maiores mais pálidas, ás vezes já mostrando alterações pigmentares na parte central; c) máculas discromod´rmicas, lisas ou ligeiramente escamosas, com maior ou menor alteração pigmentar, as quais assumem diferentes aspéctos, consequentes à hipo - ou hiperpigmentação, variaveis também com a côr do paciente. As colorações predominantes nas manchas, são o branco, o preto e o vermelho, com tonalidades eminentemente variaveis. Embora raramente, nessas extensas dermodiscromias, observa-se superposição de lesões papulo-eritemato-escamosas. O aparecimento dos 3 tipos de leões acima citados, obedece seguramente a um processo evolutivo da dermatose, dando-se na órdem exposta e de acordo com o tempo de doença. Além das lesões discromicas, características da enfermidade, foi observado purido, e infartamento ganglionar. O estado geral dos doentes era bom. A avaliação de anemia e eosinofilia, foi prejudicada pela ocurrência de outros processos mórbidos (malaria e helmintiases). Em 2 pacientes pretos e adultos, havia avançada hiperqueratose palmo-plantar. 5) Sob o ponto de vista epidemiológico, foram feitas as seguintes observações: a) Idade. A dermtose ocorre em tôdas as idades, mais incide principalmente dos 15 aos 29 anos. Tomando um grupo relativamente homogêneo de doéntes de um mesmo local, 53% têm 15 e mais anos de idade. De 36 doentes que deram informações seguras ou aproximadas quanto à idade em que lhes apareceu a doença, verifica-se que 77% já estavam infectados antes dos 15 anos. Em 5 casos, a infecção se deu antes dos 2 anos de idade. b) Sexo. Nos doentes em conjunto, existiam 34 homens e 35 mulheres. Mas, no grupo homogeneo acima citado, havia ligeira predominância do sexo feminino (60.7%). c) Côr ou raça. Foram encontradas as seguintes percentagens: Pretos - 34.8%, brancos - 27.5% índios - 23.2% e mulatos - 14.5%. Essas diferenças não indicam predileção racial. d) Família. A A dermatose é eminentemente familial. Em grupo de 41 doentes, 34 pertenciam a 8 familias. e) Lesão inicial. Contágio. Em 6 casos ainda existia a lesão inicial, chamada "empigem", isolada ou acompanhada de outras lesões semelhantes. De 33 doentes, 26 (78.8%) referiam a lesão inicial nas partes descobertas do corpo (rosto, braços e mãos, pernas e pés), isto é regiões mais sujeitas a pequenos traumas, que servem como "porta de entrada" do treponema. Os AA não acreditam na existência de um vetor. Pensam que o contágio é direto, as condições eficientes e predisponentes do mesmo, coexistindo no domícilio, onde vivem em promiscuidade e falta de higiene, doentes e sadios. Os autores não encontraram treponemas em córtes impregnados de “purú-purú”, tanto de “lesão recente” como de “lesão tardia”. Atribuem o fracasso ao provável uso de antitreponemicos pelos doentes, uma vez que a terapeutica empírica pelo arsênico e mercúrio é muito espalhada na Amazônia. Histopatológicamente, encontraram na “lesão recente”: hiperqueratose, hiperacantose, exocitose, exoserose e espongiose na epiderme; e infiltração de células redondas, edema e diltação dos capilares no derma papilar e subpapilar; pela impregnação, acharam irregularidade na distribuição do pigmento melanico, assim como melanóforos entre as células inflamatórias do derma. Na “lesão tardia” observaram: notável atrofia do epiderme, reduzida às vezes , a 3 a 5 camadas celulares, havendo desaparecimento das papilas dérmicas; no derma, havia discreta infiltração de células redondas, relacionadas aos vasos sanguineos, ao lado de macrófagos melaniferos mais ou menos abundantes; pela impregnação, quanto às alterações pigmentares, foram observadas todas as graduações, desde a completa ausência de pigmento na basal, até um acúmulo notável de melanina, atingindo as próprias células de Malpighi. 7) Com o tratamento pelo “neo-salvarsan” os AA observaram grandes melhoras e mesmo cura aparente, com 6 a 8 injeções. Certas manifestações acromicas vitiligoides, antigas, não mostraram modificações apreciáveis com a terapêutica. 8) No Brasil, fora da Amazônia, tem sido descrito casos isolados de purú-purú, porém, na opinião dos autores, todos ou quase todos, são provavelmente, manifestações discromicas tardias de sífilis ou bouba, semelhantes aos publicados por um deles (F. N. G). Pensam do mesmo modo, quanto aos casos de pinta descritos fora da América: África, Egito, Argeria, Sahara, Trípoli, Turquestão, Filipinas, Iraque, Índia, Ceilão, etc. Ainda nesta mesma ordem de idéas, os autores negam validade ao conceito epidemiológico da existência de “casos isolados”, a não ser procedentes das “zonas pintogenas”. 9) Um dos autores (F. N. G.) emite a seguinte hipótese, que considera sugestiva, embora dificilmente demonstrável: Os treis treponemas (T. pallidum, T. pertenue e T. carateum), oriundos de um ancestral comum. tornaram-se peculiares respectivamente ao branco, ao preto e ao índio, mantendo-se assim isolados. Secundariamente, com as correntes migratórias, misturaram-se as doenças...

Federalismo e forme di governo. L´inopportunità delle differenziazioni di modello

La legge costituzionale 1/1999 per le Regioni ordinarie (e la successiva 2/2001 per le Speciali) ha rappresentato un punto di svolta fondamentale del regionalismo italiano. Essa ha stabilito il principio dell’elezione popolare diretta del Presidente della Regione, a cui si collega un premio di maggioranza nel Consiglio regionale secondo il cosiddetto modello neo-parlamentare. Qualsiasi interruzione del rapporto fiduciario per dimissioni del Presidente o approvazione di una mozione di sfiducia porterebbe a nuove elezioni, cosa che rappresenta un serissimo deterrente alle crisi. La riforma prevedeva anche la possibilità per le Regioni di derogare col proprio Statuto a tali scelte tornando all’elezione consiliare e a sostituzioni della maggioranza. Nonostante alcuni tentativi di sfuggire alla regola del governo di legislatura utilizzando tale deroga in modo esplicito o surrettizio, seguendo vecchi retaggi assemblearisti, l’elezione diretta si è imposta ovunque, garantendo a tutte le Regioni analoghi e inediti standards di governabilità.

Ensaios de terapêutica no Tifo exantemático neotrópico no Brasil

Die Auctoren stellten Untersuchungen an ueber die Heil- und Preventhivtherapie gegen den neo-tropischen Flecktyphus in Brasilien. Als Heilmittel gelangten zur Anwendung PABA (Para-amino-Benzolsaeure), Chlorofenol, Guanamidina, Aureomycin, Chloromiceten, Pas oder Para-amino-salicilico-Saeure, Streptomicina, Aralen und Paludrina. Als Preventivmittel benutzten sie den von der Drogarie Butantan in S. Paulo gelieferten Impfstoff. Vor allem empfehlen sie den Gebrauch von Aureomycin in geeigneten Dosen, selbst in schweren Faellen, und dann in Verbindung mit Chloromicetin. Betreffs der Preventivmittel halten sie es fuer verfrueht aus der Impfung eine dfinitive Folgerung zu ziehen.

A foundation model for marxian breakdown theories based on a new falling rate of profit mechanism (Long version)

The paper presents a foundation model for Marxian theories of the breakdown of capitalism based on a new falling rate of profit mechanism. All of these theories are based on one or more of "the historical tendencies": a rising capital-wage bill ratio, a rising capitalist share and a falling rate of profit. The model is a foundation in the sense that it generates these tendencies in the context of a model with a constant subsistence wage. The newly discovered generating mechanism is based on neo-classical reasoning for a model with land. It is non-Ricardian in that land augmenting technical progress can be unboundedly rapid. Finally, since the model has no steady state, it is necessary to use a new technique, Chaplygin's method, to prove the result.

A foundation model for marxian breakdown theories based on a new falling rate of profit mechanism.

The paper presents a foundation model for Marxian theories of the breakdown of capitalism based on a new falling rate of profit mechanism. All of these theories are based on one or more of ?the historical tendencies?: a rising capital-wage bill ratio, a rising capitalist share and a falling rate of profit. The model is a foundation in the sense that it generates these tendencies in the context of a model with a constant subsistence wage. The newly discovered generating mechanism is based on neo-classical reasoning for a model with land. It is non-Ricardian in that land augmenting technical progress can be unboundedly rapid. Finally, since the model has no steady state, it is necessary to use a new technique, Chaplygin?s method, to prove the result.

The Rise of democracy in Europe and the fight against mass poverty in Latin America: the implications for marxist thought of some recent mainstream papers

Recently a number of mainstream papers have treated the rise of democracy in 19th century Europe and its instability in Latin America in an eminently Marxist fashion. This paper sets out their implications for Marxist thought. With respect to Europe, Marx's emphasis on political action backed by the threat of violence is vindicated but his justification for socialism is not. With respect to Latin America, the unequal distribution of wealth is the cause of political instability that is, in turn, the root cause of mass poverty. In addition it is possible to explain some of the paradoxical characteristics of neo-liberalism and to make a weak argument for socialism in spite of its rejection in Europe.

Globalization and Europeanization: Analysing Change

The main motivation for exploring the relationship between globalization and Europeanization is the understanding of the importance of exogenous factors for policy change at the domestic level. Can we distinguish the impact of Europeanization to that of globalization? What is the relationship between globalization and Europeanization and what can we learn about the impact of the two phenomena upon political institutions, public policies, identities and values of EU member-states? Can we distinguish the traces of globalization to those of Europeanization upon the domestic level? The paper draws upon International Relations and International Political Economy theories of globalization as well as upon the Europeanization literature. Both phenomena are multi-dimensional and in order to assess their impact and their relationship three dimensions are explored: political institutions, public policies and values and identities. It is concluded that the two phenomena are interwoven and that there is no antithetical relationship between them. Their core is similar, based on the values of neo-liberalism, representative democracy and open market economy.

Where Has the Old Debate Gone? Realism, Institutionalism, and IR Theory

This paper resorts to the contribution of the science philosopher Gerald Holton to map some of the IR arguments and debates in an unconventional and more insightful way. From this starting point, it is sustained that the formerly all-pervading neorealism-neoinstitutionalism debate has lost its appeal and is attracting less and less interest among scholars. It does not structure the approach of the theoretically-oriented authors any more; at least, not with the habitual intensity. More specifically, we defend that the neo-neo rapprochement, even if it could have demonstrated that international cooperation is possible and relevant in a Realist world, it has also impoverished theoretical debate by hiding some of the most significant issues that preoccupied classical transnationalists. Hence, some authors appear to be trying to rescue some of these arguments in an analytical and systematic fashion, opening up a theoretical querelle that may be the next one to pay attention to.

Effects of a nursery CO2 enriched atmosphere on the germination and seedling morphology of two Mediterranean oaks with contrasting leaf habit

Abstract: The use of an enriched CO2 atmosphere in tree nurseries has been envisaged as a promising technique to increase productivity and to obtain seedlings with a higher root/shoot ratio, an essential trait to respond to water stress in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. In that framework, we have analyzed the effects of three levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration (350, 500 and 700 ppm) on the germination rate, growth and morphology of seedlings of two Mediterranean oaks used in reforestation programs: the evergreen Quercus ilex L. and the deciduous Quercus cerrioides Wilk. et Costa. CO2 enrichment increased the germination rate of Q. cerrioides (from 70±7 to 81±3 %) while it decreased that of Q. ilex (from 71±10 to 41±12 %). Seedlings of both species increased approximately 60% their total biomass in response to CO2 enrichment but at two different CO2 concentrations: 500 ppm for Q. cerrioides and 700 ppm for Q. ilex. This increase in seedlings biomass was entirely due to an augmentation of root biomass. Considering germination and biomass partitioning, an enriched CO2 atmosphere might not be appropriate for growing Mediterranean evergreen oaks, such as Q. ilex, since it reduces acorn germination and the only gains in root biomass occur at a high concentration (700 ppm). On the other hand, a moderate CO2 enrichment (500 ppm) appears as a promising nursery technique to stimulate the germination, growth and root/shoot ratio of deciduous oaks, such as Q. cerrioides. Resumen: El uso de una atmósfera enriquecida en CO2 durante la fase de vivero puede contribuir a aumentar la producción viverística, a la vez que ayudar a conseguir plántulas con una mayor relación biomasa subterránea/biomasa aérea, más adecuadas para hacer frente al severo estrés hídrico que generalmente limita el éxito de las repoblaciones en el clima Mediterráneo. En este estudio hemos analizado el efecto de tres niveles de abonado carbónico atmosférico (350, 500 y 750 ppm) en la germinación y morfología de plántulas de encina (Quercus ilex) y roble cerrioide (Quercus cerrioides). Una atmósfera enriquecida en CO2 incrementó la germinación de Q. cerrioides (de 70±7 a 81±3 %) mientras que disminuyó la de Q. ilex (de 71±10 a 41±12 %). Las plántulas de ambas especies incrementaron aproximadamente un 60% su biomasa en respuesta a una mayor concentración de CO2, aunque esta respuesta se produjo a diferentes dosis: 500 ppm en Q. cerrioides y 700 ppm en Q. ilex. El aumento en la biomasa total de las plántulas se debió enteramente a un mayor desarrollo de su sistema radical, Considerando tanto la germinación como los efectos sobre la relación biomasa subterránea/biomasa aérea, una atmósfera enriquecida en CO2 no parece ser un tratamiento adecuado para la producción en vivero de plántulas de Q.ilex, puesto que diminuye su germinación y solo aumenta su sistema radicular a dosis muy elevadas (700 ppm). Por el contrario, un aumento moderado en la concentración de CO2 (500 ppm) aparece como una técnica interesante para estimular el crecimiento y obtener plántulas de Q. cerrioides con un sistema radical más desarrollado.

Les Formes de gestió del treball domèstic assalariat a l'Estat Espanyol

L’ objectiu principal d’aquesta tesina és analitzar les estratègies de gestió de la mà d’obra en el mercat del treball domèstic assalariat (TDA) en el context espanyol. Dins d’aquestes estratègies protagonitzades majoritàriament per les dones-, s’estudien aquelles que es basen en l’externalització d’aquestes activitats, ja sigui a l’esfera del mercat, l’esfera pública o l’esfera semipública. Allò que es vol veure és sota quines condicions s’efectua aquesta externalització, és a dir, si s’efectua seguint unes pautes laborals (neo)servilistes, on l’imaginari del "criat" encara hi és molt present, o s’efectua seguint uns criteris de "qualitat" i una voluntat de professionalitzar aquesta feina.

Validation de la version française du questionnaire I7 d'impulsivité. Influence de la personnalité, du sexe et de la religion = Validation of the french version of the eysenck's impulsiveness questionnaire (I7). Influence of personality, gender, and religion

L'objectif de cette étude est de vérifier la validité interne de la version française du questionnaire d'impulsivité d'Eysenck (I7), traduite par Dupont et al., sur un échantillon d'étudiants suisses (n = 220). Dans leur questionnaire, Eysenck et Eysenck proposent trois échelles : les deux premières évaluant deux composantes distinctes de l'impulsivité (l'Impulsivité caractérisant les individus qui agissent sans penser, sans être conscients des risques associés à leurs actions, et la Recherche d'aventure caractérisant les individus qui agissent en étant conscients, et en tenant compte des risques associés à leurs actions), et la troisième servant de « distracteur » (l'Empathie caractérisant les individus qui ont la faculté de s'identifier à l'autre). La structure à trois facteurs de l'instrument a été confirmée par notre analyse factorielle en composantes principales. La solution factorielle retenue n'explique toutefois qu'une faible proportion de la variance (21.9 %). L'homogénéité interne des échelles, mesurée à l'aide d'alphas de Cronbach, est acceptable pour l'échelle d'Impulsivité (.78) et de Recherche d'aventure (.71), mais elle est, en revanche, faible pour l'échelle d'Empathie (.62). Les échelles de l'I7 d'Eysenck entretiennent des corrélations cohérentes avec les cinq grandes dimensions de la personnalité mesurées par le NEO PI-R. L'Impulsivité est associée négativement à la dimension Conscience (r = - .32), alors que la Recherche d'aventures est associée positivement à la dimension Extraversion (r = .33). Le sexe a un impact sur les échelles Recherche d'aventure et Empathie. Les qualités métrologiques de la version française du questionnaire d'impulsivité d'Eysenck (I7) sont satisfaisantes, mais l'estimation d'autres indices de validité, comme la fidélité test-retest et la validité convergente, devrait être réalisée.

Political economics and normative analysis

The approaches and opinions of economists often dominate public policy discussion. Economists have gained this privileged position partly (or perhaps mainly) because of the obvious relevance of their subject matter, but also because of the unified methodology (neo-classical economics) that the vast majority of modern economists bring to their analysis of policy problems and proposed solutions. The idea of Pareto efficiency and its potential trade-off with equity is a central idea that is understood by all economists and this common language provides the economics profession with a powerful voice in public affairs. The purpose of this paper is to review and reflect upon the way in which economists find themselves analysing and providing suggestions for social improvements and how this role has changed over roughly the last 60 years. We focus on the fundamental split in the public economics tradition between those that adhere to public finance and those that adhere to public choice. A pure public finance perspective views failures in society as failures of the market. The solutions are technical, as might be enacted by a benevolent dictator. The pure public choice view accepts (sometimes grudgingly) that markets may fail, but so, it insists, does politics. This signals institutional reforms to constrain the potential for political failure. Certain policy recommendations may be viewed as compatible with both traditions, but other policy proposals will be the opposite of that proposed within the other tradition. In recent years a political economics synthesis emerged. This accepts that institutions are very important and governments require constraints, but that some degree of benevolence on the part of policy makers should not be assumed non-existent. The implications for public policy from this approach are, however, much less clear and perhaps more piecemeal. We also discuss analyses of systematic failure, not so much on the part of markets or politicians, but by voters. Most clearly this could lead to populism and relaxing the idea that voters necessarily choose their interests. The implications for public policy are addressed. Throughout the paper we will relate the discussion to the experience of UK government policy-making.

Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters

This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our empirical work. Given the relatively short data span of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the need to control for many explanatory variables, we use dynamic model averaging in order to ensure a parsimonious econometric speci cation. We use both regression-based and VAR-based methods. We find no support for the backward looking behavior embedded in the Neo-classical Phillips curve. Much more support is found for the forward looking behavior of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but most of this support is found after the beginning of the financial crisis.