Mammographic mass-screening and future breast cancer burden in Finland

A population-based early detection program for breast cancer has been in progress in Finland since 1987. According to regulations during the study period 1987-2001, free of charge mammography screening was offered every second year to women aged 50-59 years. Recently, the screening service was decided to be extended to age group 50-69. However, the scope of the program is still frequently discussed in public and information about potential impacts of mass-screening practice changes on future breast cancer burden is required. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to present methodologies for taking into account the mass-screening invitation information in breast cancer burden predictions, and to present alternative breast cancer incidence and mortality predictions up to 2012 based on scenarios of the future screening policy. The focus of this work is not on assessing the absolute efficacy but the effectiveness of mass-screening, and, by utilizing the data on invitations, on showing the estimated impacts of changes in an existing screening program on the short-term predictions. The breast cancer mortality predictions are calculated using a model that combines incidence, cause-specific and other cause survival on individual level. The screening invitation data are incorporated into modeling of breast cancer incidence and survival by dividing the program into separate components (first and subsequent rounds and years within them, breaks, and post screening period) and defining a variable that gives the component of the screening program. The incidence is modeled using a Poisson regression approach and the breast cancer survival by applying a parametric mixture cure model, where the patient population is allowed to be a combination of cured and uncured patients. The patients risk to die from other causes than breast cancer is allowed to differ from that of a corresponding general population group and to depend on age and follow-up time. As a result, the effects of separate components of the screening program on incidence, proportion of cured and the survival of the uncured are quantified. According to the predictions, the impacts of policy changes, like extending the program from age group 50-59 to 50-69, are clearly visible on incidence while the effects on mortality in age group 40-74 are minor. Extending the screening service would increase the incidence of localized breast cancers but decrease the rates of non-localized breast cancer. There were no major differences between mortality predictions yielded by alternative future scenarios of the screening policy: Any policy change would have at the most a 3.0% reduction on overall breast cancer mortality compared to continuing the current practice in the near future.

Common SNPs explain a large proportion of the heritability for human height

SNPs discovered by genome-wide association studies (GWASs) account for only a small fraction of the genetic variation of complex traits in human populations. Where is the remaining heritability? We estimated the proportion of variance for human height explained by 294,831 SNPs genotyped on 3,925 unrelated individuals using a linear model analysis, and validated the estimation method with simulations based on the observed genotype data. We show that 45% of variance can be explained by considering all SNPs simultaneously. Thus, most of the heritability is not missing but has not previously been detected because the individual effects are too small to pass stringent significance tests. We provide evidence that the remaining heritability is due to incomplete linkage disequilibrium between causal variants and genotyped SNPs, exacerbated by causal variants having lower minor allele frequency than the SNPs explored to date.

A variant in LIN28B is associated with 2D:4D finger-length ratio, a putative retrospective biomarker of prenatal testosterone exposure

The ratio of the lengths of an individual's second to fourth digit (2D:4D) is commonly used as a noninvasive retrospective biomarker for prenatal androgen exposure. In order to identify the genetic determinants of 2D:4D, we applied a genome-wide association approach to 1507 11-year-old children from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) in whom 2D:4D ratio had been measured, as well as a sample of 1382 12- to 16-year-olds from the Brisbane Adolescent Twin Study. A meta-analysis of the two scans identified a single variant in the LIN28B gene that was strongly associated with 2D:4D (rs314277: p = 4.1 x 10(-8)) and was subsequently independently replicated in an additional 3659 children from the ALSPAC cohort (p = 1.53 x 10(-6)). The minor allele of the rs314277 variant has previously been linked to increased height and delayed age at menarche, but in our study it was associated with increased 2D:4D in the direction opposite to that of previous reports on the correlation between 2D:4D and age at menarche. Our findings call into question the validity of 2D:4D as a simplistic retrospective biomarker for prenatal testosterone exposure.

Objective `Safe' Grazing Capacities for South-West Queensland Australia: Development of a Model for Individual Properties

Few tools are available to assist graziers, land administrators and financiers in making objective grazing capacity decisions on Australian rangelands, despite existing knowledge regarding stocking rate theory and the impact of stocking rates on land condition. To address this issue a model for objectively estimating 'safe' grazing capacities on individual grazing properties in south-west Queensland was developed. The method is based on 'safe' levels of utilisation (15%-20%) by domestic livestock of average annual forage grown for each land system on a property. Average annual forage grown (kglha) was calculated as the product of the rainfall use efficiency (kglhdmm) and average annual rainfall (mm) for a land system. This estimate included the impact of tree and shrub cover on forage production. The 'safe' levels of forage utilisation for south- west Queensland pastures were derived from the combined experience of (1) re-analysis of the results of grazing trials, (2) reaching a consensus on local knowledge and (3) examination of existing grazing practice on 'benchmark' grazing properties. We recognise the problems in defining, determining and using grazing capacity values, but consider that the model offers decision makers a tool that can be used to assess the grazing capacity of individual properties.

A comparison of DNA pools constructed following whole genome amplification for two-stage SNP genotyping designs

Genotyping in DNA pools reduces the cost and the time required to complete large genotyping projects. The aim of the present study was to evaluate pooling as part of a strategy for fine mapping in regions of significant linkage. Thirty-nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were analyzed in two genomic DNA pools of 384 individuals each and results compared with data after typing all individuals used in the pools. There were no significant differences using data from either 2 or 8 heterozygous individuals to correct frequency estimates for unequal allelic amplification. After correction, the mean difference between estimates from the genomic pool and individual allele frequencies was .033. A major limitation of the use of DNA pools is the time and effort required to carefully adjust the concentration of each individual DNA sample before mixing aliquots. Pools were also constructed by combining DNA after Multiple Displacement Amplification (MDA). The MDA pools gave similar results to pools constructed after careful DNA quantitation (mean difference from individual genotyping .040) and MDA provides a rapid method to generate pools suitable for some applications. Pools provide a rapid and cost-effective screen to eliminate SNPs that are not polymorphic in a test population and can detect minor allele frequencies as low as 1% in the pooled samples. With current levels of accuracy, pooling is best suited to an initial screen in the SNP validation process that can provide high-throughput comparisons between cases and controls to prioritize SNPs for subsequent individual genotyping.

Individual process management: A first step towards the conceptualization of individual activities

Understanding activities of individuals is of major importance because their actions are the main foundation of economic activity. However, there is a lack of understanding with regard to how individual activities are characterised. Thus, we develop a first conceptual classification for individual activities extending the view on business processes. The classification scheme contains personal care, education, professional work, domestic work, leisure and travel as primary activities and individual organization, procurement, information gathering and self-expression as secondary activities. We extend mainly prior literature on customer management by structuring processes of individuals independently from their status as customer. This enables new theoretical insights in the way companies can design their offers from a strategic point of view. Companies can use IPM to systematically analyze individual processes independent from specific products and services which is assumed to foster the development of innovative product and service offers.

Individual-based modelling of the efficacy of fumigation tactics to control lesser grain borer (Rhyzopertha dominica) in stored grain

Increasing resistance to phosphine (PH 3) in insect pests, including lesser grain borer (Rhyzopertha dominica) has become a critical issue, and development of effective and sustainable strategies to manage resistance is crucial. In practice, the same grain store may be fumigated multiple times, but usually for the same exposure period and concentration. Simulating a single fumigation allows us to look more closely at the effects of this standard treatment.We used an individual-based, two-locus model to investigate three key questions about the use of phosphine fumigant in relation to the development of PH 3 resistance. First, which is more effective for insect control; long exposure time with a low concentration or short exposure period with a high concentration? Our results showed that extending exposure duration is a much more efficient control tactic than increasing the phosphine concentration. Second, how long should the fumigation period be extended to deal with higher frequencies of resistant insects in the grain? Our results indicated that if the original frequency of resistant insects is increased n times, then the fumigation needs to be extended, at most, n days to achieve the same level of insect control. The third question is how does the presence of varying numbers of insects inside grain storages impact the effectiveness of phosphine fumigation? We found that, for a given fumigation, as the initial population number was increased, the final survival of resistant insects increased proportionally. To control initial populations of insects that were n times larger, it was necessary to increase the fumigation time by about n days. Our results indicate that, in a 2-gene mediated resistance where dilution of resistance gene frequencies through immigration of susceptibles has greater effect, extending fumigation times to reduce survival of homozygous resistant insects will have a significant impact on delaying the development of resistance. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Constructing a new individual-based model of phosphine resistance in lesser grain borer (Rhyzopertha dominica): do we need to include two loci rather than one?

In this article, we describe and compare two individual-based models constructed to investigate how genetic factors influence the development of phosphine resistance in lesser grain borer (R. dominica). One model is based on the simplifying assumption that resistance is conferred by alleles at a single locus, while the other is based on the more realistic assumption that resistance is conferred by alleles at two separate loci. We simulated the population dynamic of R. dominica in the absence of phosphine fumigation, and under high and low dose phosphine treatments, and found important differences between the predictions of the two models in all three cases. In the absence of fumigation, starting from the same initial frequencies of genotypes, the two models tended to different stable frequencies, although both reached Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The one-locus model exaggerated the equilibrium proportion of strongly resistant beetles by 3.6 times, compared to the aggregated predictions of the two-locus model. Under a low dose treatment the one-locus model overestimated the proportion of strongly resistant individuals within the population and underestimated the total population numbers compared to the two-locus model. These results show the importance of basing resistance evolution models on realistic genetics and that using oversimplified one-locus models to develop pest control strategies runs the risk of not correctly identifying tactics to minimise the incidence of pest infestation.

Individual difference predictors of change in career adaptability over time

Career adaptability is a psychosocial construct that reflects individuals' resources for managing career tasks and challenges. This study investigated the effects of demographic characteristics and three sets of individual difference variables (Big Five personality traits, core self-evaluations, and temporal focus) on changes over time in career adaptability and its dimensions (concern, control, curiosity, and confidence). Data came from 659 full-time employees in Australia who participated in two measurement waves six months apart. Results showed that age and future temporal focus predicted change in overall career adaptability. In addition, age, education, extraversion, neuroticism, openness to experience, core self-evaluations, and future temporal focus differentially predicted change over time in one or more of the four career adaptability dimensions. While the lagged effects found in this study were generally small, the findings suggest that certain individual difference characteristics predispose employees to experience change in career adaptability over time.

Lernen im Team: Zusammenhänge zwischen Personen- und Teammerkmalen und der Leistung von Multiplikatoren [Learning in teams: Relationships between individual and team characteristics and the performance of multipliers]

The continuous mutual transfer of knowledge and skills within work teams is increasingly important for organizational practice. According to the situational and experience-based approaches of applied learning research, certain individual and social prerequisites have to be met for successful learning in teams. In a field study at an automobile production site, it was investigated which personal characteristics of multipliers and which characteristics of teams are related to the performance of multipliers in 31 teams with 291 coworkers. Using multi-level analyses (HLM), the amount of variance explained by the predictor variables in teaching success of multipliers and learning success of coworkers was examined. Results showed that multipliers' conscientiousness and team cohesion were related to teaching success of multipliers; extraversion and team cohesion were related to the learning success of coworkers. In closing, the scientific and practical implications for the investigation and promotion of work-based learning processes in teams are discussed.

Prediction of breeding values for average fruit weight in mango using a multivariate individual mixed model

Mango is an important horticultural fruit crop and breeding is a key strategy to improve ongoing sustainability. Knowledge of breeding values of potential parents is important for maximising progress from breeding. This study successfully employed a mixed linear model methods incorporating a pedigree to predict breeding values for average fruit weight from highly unbalanced data for genotypes planted over three field trials and assessed over several harvest seasons. Average fruit weight was found to be under strong additive genetic control. There was high correlation between hybrids propagated as seedlings and hybrids propagated as scions grafted onto rootstocks. Estimates of additive genetic correlation among trials ranged from 0.69 to 0.88 with correlations among harvest seasons within trials greater than 0.96. These results suggest that progress from selection for broad adaptation can be achieved, particularly as no repeatable environmental factor that could be used to predict G x E could be identified. Predicted breeding values for 35 known cultivars are presented for use in ongoing breeding programs.

Within-person relationships between daily individual and job characteristics and daily manifestations of career adaptability

Previous research showed that daily manifestations of career adaptability fluctuate within individuals over short periods of time, and predict important daily job and career outcomes. Using a quantitative daily diary study design (N = 156 employees; 591 daily entries), the author investigated daily job characteristics (i.e., daily job demands, daily job autonomy, and daily supervisory career mentoring) and daily individual characteristics (i.e., daily Big Five personality characteristics, daily core self-evaluations, and daily temporal focus) as within-person predictors of daily career adaptability and its four dimensions (concern, control, curiosity, and confidence). Results showed that daily job demands, daily job autonomy, daily conscientiousness, daily openness to experience, as well as daily past and future temporal focus positively predicted daily career adaptability. Differential results emerged for the four career adaptability dimensions. Implications for future research on within-person variability in career adaptability are discussed.

Puccinia psidii in Queensland, Australia: disease symptoms, distribution and impact

Puccinia psidii has long been considered a significant threat to Australian plant industries and ecosystems. In April 2010, P. psidii was detected for the first time in Australia on the central coast of New South Wales (NSW). The fungus spread rapidly along the east coast and in December 2010 was found in Queensland (Qld) followed by Victoria a year later. Puccinia psidii was initially restricted to the southeastern part of Qld but spread as far north as Mossman. In Qld, 48 species of Myrtaceae are considered highly or extremely susceptible to the disease. The impact of P. psidii on individual trees and shrubs has ranged from minor leaf spots, foliage, stem and branch dieback to reduced fecundity. Tree death, as a result of repeated infection, has been recorded for Rhodomyrtus psidioides. Rust infection has also been recorded on flower buds, flowers and fruits of 28 host species. Morphological and molecular characteristics were used to confirm the identification of P. psidii from a range of Myrtaceae in Qld and compared with isolates from NSW and overseas. A reconstructed phylogeny based on the LSU and SSU regions of rDNA did not resolve the familial placement of P. psidii, but indicated that it does not belong to the Pucciniaceae. Uredo rangelii was found to be con-specific with all isolates of P. psidii in morphology, ITS and LSU sequence data, and host range.