The ghost of past species occurrence: improving species distribution models for presence-only data

1. Model-based approaches have been used increasingly in conservation biology over recent years. Species presence data used for predictive species distribution modelling are abundant in natural history collections, whereas reliable absence data are sparse, most notably for vagrant species such as butterflies and snakes. As predictive methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) require absence data, various strategies have been proposed to select pseudo-absence data. However, only a few studies exist that compare different approaches to generating these pseudo-absence data. 2. Natural history collection data are usually available for long periods of time (decades or even centuries), thus allowing historical considerations. However, this historical dimension has rarely been assessed in studies of species distribution, although there is great potential for understanding current patterns, i.e. the past is the key to the present. 3. We used GLM to model the distributions of three 'target' butterfly species, Melitaea didyma, Coenonympha tullia and Maculinea teleius, in Switzerland. We developed and compared four strategies for defining pools of pseudo-absence data and applied them to natural history collection data from the last 10, 30 and 100 years. Pools included: (i) sites without target species records; (ii) sites where butterfly species other than the target species were present; (iii) sites without butterfly species but with habitat characteristics similar to those required by the target species; and (iv) a combination of the second and third strategies. Models were evaluated and compared by the total deviance explained, the maximized Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). 4. Among the four strategies, model performance was best for strategy 3. Contrary to expectations, strategy 2 resulted in even lower model performance compared with models with pseudo-absence data simulated totally at random (strategy 1). 5. Independent of the strategy model, performance was enhanced when sites with historical species presence data were not considered as pseudo-absence data. Therefore, the combination of strategy 3 with species records from the last 100 years achieved the highest model performance. 6. Synthesis and applications. The protection of suitable habitat for species survival or reintroduction in rapidly changing landscapes is a high priority among conservationists. Model-based approaches offer planning authorities the possibility of delimiting priority areas for species detection or habitat protection. The performance of these models can be enhanced by fitting them with pseudo-absence data relying on large archives of natural history collection species presence data rather than using randomly sampled pseudo-absence data.

Mather invariants in groups of piecewise-linear homeomorphisms

We describe the relation between two characterizations of conjugacy in groups of piecewise-linear homeomorphisms, discovered by Brin and Squier in [2] and Kassabov and Matucci in [5]. Thanks to the interplay between the techniques, we produce a simplified point of view of conjugacy that allows ua to easily recover centralizers and lends itself to generalization.

The simultaneous conjugacy problem in groups of piecewise linear functions

Guba and Sapir asked, in their joint paper [8], if the simultaneous conjugacy problem was solvable in Diagram Groups or, at least, for Thompson's group F. We give an elementary proof for the solution of the latter question. This relies purely on the description of F as the group of piecewise linear orientation-preserving homeomorphisms of the unit. The techniques we develop allow us also to solve the ordinary conjugacy problem as well, and we can compute roots and centralizers. Moreover, these techniques can be generalized to solve the same questions in larger groups of piecewise-linear homeomorphisms.

A public key encryption based on third order linear sequences

Based on third order linear sequences, an improvement version of the Diffie-Hellman distribution key scheme and the ElGamal public key cryptosystem scheme are proposed, together with an implementation and computational cost. The security relies on the difficulty of factoring an RSA integer and on the difficulty of computing the discrete logarithm.

Conjugacy of piecewise linear Lorenz map that expand on average

For piecewise linear Lorenz map that expand on average, we show that it admits a dichotomy: it is either periodic renormalizable or prime. As a result, such a map is conjugate to a ß-transformation.

Personality traits and behavioral and psychological symptoms in patients at an early stage of Alzheimer's disease.

OBJECTIVE: The origins of behavioral and psychological symptoms (BPS) in Alzheimer's disease (AD) are still poorly understood. Focusing on individual personality structure, we explored the relationship between premorbid personality and its changes over 5 years, and BPS in patients at an early stage of AD. METHOD: A total of 54 patients at an early stage of AD according to ICD-10 and NINCDS-ADRDA criteria and 64 control subjects were included. Family members filled in the Neuropsychiatric Inventory Questionnaire to evaluate their proxies' current BPS and the NEO Personality Inventory Revised twice, the first time to evaluate the participants' current personality and the second time to assess personality traits as they were remembered to be 5 years earlier. RESULTS: Behavioral and psychological symptoms, in particular apathy, depression, anxiety, and agitation, are frequent occurrences in early stage AD. Premorbid personality differed between AD patients and normal control, but it was not predictive of BPS in patients with AD. Personality traits clearly change in the course of beginning AD, and this change seems to develop in parallel with BPS as early signs of AD. CONCLUSIONS: Premorbid personality was not associated with BPS in early stage of AD, although complex and non-linear relationships between the two are not excluded. However, both personality and behavioral changes occur early in the course of AD, and recognizing them as possible, early warning signs of neurodegeneration may prove to be a key factor for early detection and intervention. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quasiconformal maps, analytic capacity, and non linear potentials

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Near-linear dynamics in KdV with periodic boundary conditions

Near linear evolution in Korteweg de Vries (KdV) equation with periodic boundary conditions is established under the assumption of high frequency initial data. This result is obtained by the method of normal form reduction.

The non-linear Dirichlet problem in Hadamard manifolds

We prove existence theorems for the Dirichlet problem for hypersurfaces of constant special Lagrangian curvature in Hadamard manifolds. The first results are obtained using the continuity method and approximation and then refined using two iterations of the Perron method. The a-priori estimates used in the continuity method are valid in any ambient manifold.

Is intra-operative blood flow predictive for early failure of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula?

BACKGROUND: For over 50 years, radiocephalic wrist arteriovenous fistulae (RCAVF) have been the primary and best vascular access for haemodialysis. Nevertheless, early failure due to thrombosis or non-maturation is a major complication resulting in their abandonment. This prospective study was designed to investigate the predictive value of intra-operative blood flow on early failure of primary RCAVF before the first effective dialysis. METHODS: We enrolled patients undergoing creation of primary RCAVF for haemodialysis based on the pre-operative ultrasound vascular mapping discussed in a multidisciplinary approach. Intra-operative blood flow measurement was systematically performed once the anastomosis had been completed using a transit-time ultrasonic flowmeter. During the follow-up, blood flow was estimated by colour flow ultrasound at various intervals. Any events related to the RCAVF were recorded. RESULTS: Autogenous RCAVFs (n = 58) in 58 patients were constructed and followed up for an average of 30 days. Thrombosis and non-maturation occurred in eight (14%) and four (7%) patients, respectively. The intra-operative blood flow in functioning RCAVFs was significantly higher compared to non-functioning RCAVFs (230 vs 98 mL/min; P = 0.007), as well as 1 week (753 vs 228 mL/min; P = 0.0008) and 4 weeks (915 vs 245 mL/min, P < 0.0001) later. Blood flow volume measurements with a cut-off value of 120 mL/min had a sensitivity of 67%, specificity of 75% and positive predictive value of 91%. CONCLUSIONS: Blood flow <120 mL has a good predictive value for early failure in RCAVF. During the procedure, this cut-off value may be used to select appropriately which RCAVF should be investigated in the operation theatre in order to correct in real time any abnormality.

Plasma Level of Mmp-9 as Predictive Factor for Response and Progression Free Survival in Patients Treated with Bevacizumab (Bev) and Pegylated Liposomal Doxorubicin (Pld): Sakk 24/06

Background: There is currently no identified marker predicting benefit from Bev in patients with breast cancer (pts). We monitored prospectively 6 angiogenesis-related factors in the blood of advanced stage pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD in a phase II trial of the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, SAKK.Methods: Pts received PLD (20 mg/m2) and Bev (10 mg/kg) every 2 weeks for a maximum of 12 administrations, followed by Bev monotherapy until progression or severe toxicity. Blood samples were collected at baseline, during treatment and at treatment discontinuation. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (Quantikine, R&DSystems and Reliatech) were used to measure vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), placental growth factor (PlGF), matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9) and soluble VEGF receptors -1, -2 and -3. The natural log-transformed (ln) data for each factor was analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA) model to investigate differences between the mean values of the subgroups of interest (where a = 0.05), based on the best tumor response by RECIST.Results: 132 samples were collected in 41 pts. The mean of baseline ln MMP-9 levels was significantly lower in pts with tumor progression than those with tumor response (p=0.0202, log fold change=0.8786) or disease control (p=0.0035, log fold change=0.8427). Higher MMP-9 level was a significant predictor of superior progression free survival (PFS): p=0.0417, hazard ratio=0.574, 95% CI=0.336-0.979. In a multivariate cox proportional hazards model, containing performance status, disease free interval, number of tumor sites, visceral involvement and prior adjuvant chemotherapy, using stepwise regression baseline MMP-9 was still a statistically 117P Table 1. SOLTI-0701* AC01B07* NU07B1* SOR+CAP N=20 PL+CAP N=33 SOR+ GEM/CAP N=23 PL+ GEM/CAP N=27 SOR+PAC N=48 PL+PAC N=46 Baseline characteristics Age, median (range), y 49 (32-72) 53 (30-78 54 (32-69) 57 (31-82) 50 (27-80) 52 (23-74) AJCC stage, n (%) IIIB/IIIC 3 (15) 6 (18) 0 (0) 3 (11) 8 (17) 9 (20) IV 17 (85) 27 (82) 23 (100) 24 (89) 40 (83) 37 (80) Metastatic site, n (%) Non-visceral 3 (15) 6 (18) 7 (30) 6 (22) 9 (19) 17 (37) Visceral 17 (85) 27 (82) 16 (70) 21 (78) 39 (81) 29 (63) Prior metastatic chemo, n (%) 8 (40) 15 (45) 21 (91) 25 (93) - - Efficacy PFS, median, mo 4.3 2.5 3.1 2.6 5.6 5.5 HR (95% CI)_ 0.60 (0.31, 1.14) 0.57 (0.30, 1.09) 0.86 (0.50, 1.45) 1-sided P value_ 0.055 0.044 0.281 Overall survival, median, mo 17.5 16.1 Pending 14.7 18.2 HR (95% CI)_ 0.98 (0.50, 1.89) 1.11 (0.64, 1.94) 1-sided P value_ 0.476 0.352 Safety N=20 N=33 N=22 N=27 N=46 N=46 Tx-emergent Grade 3/4, n (%) 15 (75) 16 (48) 20 (91) 17 (63) 36 (78) 16 (35) Grade 3§ hand-foot skin reaction/ syndrome 8 (40) 5 (15) 8 (36) 0 (0) 14 (30) 2 (4) *Efficacy results based on intent-to-treat population and safety results based on safety population (pts who received study drug[s]); _Cox regression within each subgroup; _log-rank test within each subgroup; §maximum toxicity grade for hand-foot skin reaction/syndrome; AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer mittedabstractsª The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com Downloaded from annonc.oxfordjournals.org at Bibliotheque Cantonale et Universitaire on June 6, 2011 significant factor (p=0.0266). The results of the other measured factors were presented elsewhere.Conclusions: Higher levels of MMP-9 could predict tumor response and superior PFSin pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD. These exploratory results justify further investigations of MMP-9 in pts treated with Bev combinations in order to assess its role as a prognostic and predictive factor.Disclosure: K. Zaman: Participation in advisory board of Roche; partial sponsoring ofthe study by Roche (the main sponsor was the Swiss Federation against Cancer (Oncosuisse)). B. Thu¨rlimann: stock of Roche; Research grants from Roche. R. vonMoos: Participant of Advisory Board and Speaker honoraria

Emerging roles of non-coding RNAs in pancreatic β-cell function and dysfunction.

Pancreatic β-cells play a central role in glucose homeostasis by tightly regulating insulin release according to the organism's demand. Impairment of β-cell function due to hostile environment, such as hyperglycaemia and hyperlipidaemia, or due to autoimmune destruction of β-cells, results in diabetes onset. Both environmental factors and genetic predisposition are known to be involved in the development of the disease, but the exact mechanisms leading to β-cell dysfunction and death remain to be characterized. Non-coding RNA molecules, such as microRNAs (miRNAs), have been suggested to be necessary for proper β-cell development and function. The present review aims at summarizing the most recent findings about the role of non-coding RNAs in the control of β-cell functions and their involvement in diabetes. We will also provide a perspective view of the future research directions in the field of non-coding RNAs. In particular, we will discuss the implications for diabetes research of the discovery of a new communication mechanism based on cell-to-cell miRNA transfer. Moreover, we will highlight the emerging interconnections between miRNAs and epigenetics and the possible role of long non-coding RNAs in the control of β-cell activities.