LARGE-SCALE DISTRIBUTION OF ARRIVAL DIRECTIONS OF COSMIC RAYS DETECTED ABOVE 10(18) eV AT THE PIERRE AUGER OBSERVATORY

A thorough search for large-scale anisotropies in the distribution of arrival directions of cosmic rays detected above 10(18) eV at the Pierre Auger Observatory is presented. This search is performed as a function of both declination and right ascension in several energy ranges above 10(18) eV, and reported in terms of dipolar and quadrupolar coefficients. Within the systematic uncertainties, no significant deviation from isotropy is revealed. Assuming that any cosmic-ray anisotropy is dominated by dipole and quadrupole moments in this energy range, upper limits on their amplitudes are derived. These upper limits allow us to test the origin of cosmic rays above 10(18) eV from stationary Galactic sources densely distributed in the Galactic disk and predominantly emitting light particles in all directions.

Do charges to freight trucks and trains in the European Union reflect their social marginal costs? Application to the case of Spain

In the last few years, the European Union (EU) has become greatly concerned about the environmental costs of road transport in Europe as a result of the constant growth in the market share of trucks and the steady decline in the market share of railroads. In order to reverse this trend, the EU is promoting the implementation of additional charges for heavy goods vehicles (HGV) on the trunk roads of the EU countries. However, the EU policy is being criticised because it does not address the implementation of charges to internalise the external costs produced by automobiles and other transport modes such as railroad. In this paper, we first describe the evolution of the HGV charging policy in the EU, and then assess its practical implementation across different European countries. Second, and of greater significance, by using the case study of Spain, we evaluate to what extent the current fees on trucks and trains reflect their social marginal costs, and consequently lead to an allocative-efficient outcome. We found that for the average case in Spain the truck industry meets more of the marginal social cost produced by it than does the freight railroad industry. The reason for this lies in the large sums of money paid by truck companies in fuel taxes, and the subsidies that continue to be granted by the government to the railroads.

Modularity and evolutionary constraints in a baculovirus gene regulatory network

Abstract Background The structure of regulatory networks remains an open question in our understanding of complex biological systems. Interactions during complete viral life cycles present unique opportunities to understand how host-parasite network take shape and behave. The Anticarsia gemmatalis multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus (AgMNPV) is a large double-stranded DNA virus, whose genome may encode for 152 open reading frames (ORFs). Here we present the analysis of the ordered cascade of the AgMNPV gene expression. Results We observed an earlier onset of the expression than previously reported for other baculoviruses, especially for genes involved in DNA replication. Most ORFs were expressed at higher levels in a more permissive host cell line. Genes with more than one copy in the genome had distinct expression profiles, which could indicate the acquisition of new functionalities. The transcription gene regulatory network (GRN) for 149 ORFs had a modular topology comprising five communities of highly interconnected nodes that separated key genes that are functionally related on different communities, possibly maximizing redundancy and GRN robustness by compartmentalization of important functions. Core conserved functions showed expression synchronicity, distinct GRN features and significantly less genetic diversity, consistent with evolutionary constraints imposed in key elements of biological systems. This reduced genetic diversity also had a positive correlation with the importance of the gene in our estimated GRN, supporting a relationship between phylogenetic data of baculovirus genes and network features inferred from expression data. We also observed that gene arrangement in overlapping transcripts was conserved among related baculoviruses, suggesting a principle of genome organization. Conclusions Albeit with a reduced number of nodes (149), the AgMNPV GRN had a topology and key characteristics similar to those observed in complex cellular organisms, which indicates that modularity may be a general feature of biological gene regulatory networks.

What drives the seasonality of photosynthesis across the Amazon basin? A cross-site analysis of eddy flux tower measurements from the Brasil flux network

We investigated the seasonal patterns of Amazonian forest photosynthetic activity, and the effects thereon of variations in climate and land-use, by integrating data from a network of ground-based eddy flux towers in Brazil established as part of the ‘Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia’ project. We found that degree of water limitation, as indicated by the seasonality of the ratio of sensible to latent heat flux (Bowen ratio) predicts seasonal patterns of photosynthesis. In equatorial Amazonian forests (5◦ N–5◦ S), water limitation is absent, and photosynthetic fluxes (or gross ecosystem productivity, GEP) exhibit high or increasing levels of photosynthetic activity as the dry season progresses, likely a consequence of allocation to growth of new leaves. In contrast, forests along the southern flank of the Amazon, pastures converted from forest, and mixed forest-grass savanna, exhibit dry-season declines in GEP, consistent with increasing degrees of water limitation. Although previous work showed tropical ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET) is driven by incoming radiation, GEP observations reported here surprisingly show no or negative relationships with photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Instead, GEP fluxes largely followed the phenology of canopy photosynthetic capacity (Pc), with only deviations from this primary pattern driven by variations in PAR. Estimates of leaf flush at three

Multi-objective evolutionary algorithm for single and multiple fault service restoration in large-scale distribution systems

Network reconfiguration for service restoration (SR) in distribution systems is a complex optimization problem. For large-scale distribution systems, it is computationally hard to find adequate SR plans in real time since the problem is combinatorial and non-linear, involving several constraints and objectives. Two Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms that use Node-Depth Encoding (NDE) have proved able to efficiently generate adequate SR plans for large distribution systems: (i) one of them is the hybridization of the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II) with NDE, named NSGA-N; (ii) the other is a Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm based on subpopulation tables that uses NDE, named MEAN. Further challenges are faced now, i.e. the design of SR plans for larger systems as good as those for relatively smaller ones and for multiple faults as good as those for one fault (single fault). In order to tackle both challenges, this paper proposes a method that results from the combination of NSGA-N, MEAN and a new heuristic. Such a heuristic focuses on the application of NDE operators to alarming network zones according to technical constraints. The method generates similar quality SR plans in distribution systems of significantly different sizes (from 3860 to 30,880 buses). Moreover, the number of switching operations required to implement the SR plans generated by the proposed method increases in a moderate way with the number of faults.

Decrescita sostenibile applicata alla mobilità nelle aree urbane.

La mobilità nelle aree urbane di medie e grandi dimensioni risente di molte criticità e spesso è causa di numerose discussioni. L'utilizzo sempre crescente del mezzo di trasporto privato ha prodotto conseguenze negative: l'aumento del traffico e degli incidenti stradali, dell'inquinamento atmosferico e del rumore sono accompagnati da un forte spreco energetico. Dall'altra parte, il trasporto pubblico locale (TPL) non è riuscito a costruirsi canali preferenziali all'interno dell'immaginario cittadino, poiché sottomesso da un modello economico e un mercato fortemente dipendenti dall'automobile. Una via d'uscita dalla mobilità non sostenibile basata sull'utilizzo di combustibili fossili porta a concepire un trasporto pubblico locale gratuito, fruibile dal cittadino in qualsiasi momento della giornata. Attraverso un'analisi dell'azienda del trasporto pubblico bolognese (ATC) e dei dati provenienti dalla sanità regionale, questa tesi intende mostrare che vi sarà un miglioramento della qualità di vita in aree urbane nel momento in cui la teoria della decrescita venga condivisa da tutti i cittadini. Così sarà possibile liberare i centri urbani dai mezzi privati e quindi dagli alti livelli di inquinamento acustico e atmosferico, e dare ai cittadini la vera libertà di movimento. Mobility in medium and large sized urban areas is critical and often a cause for numerous debates. The use of private transport is in constant increase and has generated negative consequences: congestion and road accidents, air and noise pollutio as well as a considerable waste of energy. On the other hand, the local public transport (LPT) has not succeeded in representing the preferred choice by citizens in the urban imaginary. Its potential has been subdued by economic models and markets that are largely dependant on the production of vehicles. An alternative to the current non sustainable mobility based on the combustion of fossil fuels could be the provision of a free local transport network available to the citizen from anywhere at any time. This dissertation's objective is to show how an improvement of the quality of life in urban areas is connected to a collective awareness on the degrowth theory. I intend to achieve this by analysing thoroughly the system of the public transportation agency in Bologna (ATC) and considering data from the local health department. Only then we will be able to limit private vehicles from city centres and as a result of that drastically decrease air and noise pollution whilst providing a true service for a free moving citizen.

Algorithms for network design and routing problems

In this thesis we study three combinatorial optimization problems belonging to the classes of Network Design and Vehicle Routing problems that are strongly linked in the context of the design and management of transportation networks: the Non-Bifurcated Capacitated Network Design Problem (NBP), the Period Vehicle Routing Problem (PVRP) and the Pickup and Delivery Problem with Time Windows (PDPTW). These problems are NP-hard and contain as special cases some well known difficult problems such as the Traveling Salesman Problem and the Steiner Tree Problem. Moreover, they model the core structure of many practical problems arising in logistics and telecommunications. The NBP is the problem of designing the optimum network to satisfy a given set of traffic demands. Given a set of nodes, a set of potential links and a set of point-to-point demands called commodities, the objective is to select the links to install and dimension their capacities so that all the demands can be routed between their respective endpoints, and the sum of link fixed costs and commodity routing costs is minimized. The problem is called non- bifurcated because the solution network must allow each demand to follow a single path, i.e., the flow of each demand cannot be splitted. Although this is the case in many real applications, the NBP has received significantly less attention in the literature than other capacitated network design problems that allow bifurcation. We describe an exact algorithm for the NBP that is based on solving by an integer programming solver a formulation of the problem strengthened by simple valid inequalities and four new heuristic algorithms. One of these heuristics is an adaptive memory metaheuristic, based on partial enumeration, that could be applied to a wider class of structured combinatorial optimization problems. In the PVRP a fleet of vehicles of identical capacity must be used to service a set of customers over a planning period of several days. Each customer specifies a service frequency, a set of allowable day-combinations and a quantity of product that the customer must receive every time he is visited. For example, a customer may require to be visited twice during a 5-day period imposing that these visits take place on Monday-Thursday or Monday-Friday or Tuesday-Friday. The problem consists in simultaneously assigning a day- combination to each customer and in designing the vehicle routes for each day so that each customer is visited the required number of times, the number of routes on each day does not exceed the number of vehicles available, and the total cost of the routes over the period is minimized. We also consider a tactical variant of this problem, called Tactical Planning Vehicle Routing Problem, where customers require to be visited on a specific day of the period but a penalty cost, called service cost, can be paid to postpone the visit to a later day than that required. At our knowledge all the algorithms proposed in the literature for the PVRP are heuristics. In this thesis we present for the first time an exact algorithm for the PVRP that is based on different relaxations of a set partitioning-like formulation. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is tested on a set of instances from the literature and on a new set of instances. Finally, the PDPTW is to service a set of transportation requests using a fleet of identical vehicles of limited capacity located at a central depot. Each request specifies a pickup location and a delivery location and requires that a given quantity of load is transported from the pickup location to the delivery location. Moreover, each location can be visited only within an associated time window. Each vehicle can perform at most one route and the problem is to satisfy all the requests using the available vehicles so that each request is serviced by a single vehicle, the load on each vehicle does not exceed the capacity, and all locations are visited according to their time window. We formulate the PDPTW as a set partitioning-like problem with additional cuts and we propose an exact algorithm based on different relaxations of the mathematical formulation and a branch-and-cut-and-price algorithm. The new algorithm is tested on two classes of problems from the literature and compared with a recent branch-and-cut-and-price algorithm from the literature.

Transportation theory and planning

The aim of this research is to analyze the transport system and its subcomponents in order to highlight which are the design tools for physical and/or organizational projects related to transport supply systems. A characteristic of the transport systems is that the change of their structures can recoil on several entities, groups of entities, which constitute the community. The construction of a new infrastructure can modify both the transport service characteristic for all the user of the entire network; for example, the construction of a transportation infrastructure can change not only the transport service characteristics for the users of the entire network in which it is part of, but also it produces economical, social, and environmental effects. Therefore, the interventions or the improvements choices must be performed using a rational decision making approach. This approach requires that these choices are taken through the quantitative evaluation of the different effects caused by the different intervention plans. This approach becomes even more necessary when the decisions are taken in behalf of the community. Then, in order to understand how to develop a planning process in Transportation I will firstly analyze the transport system and the mathematical models used to describe it: these models provide us significant indicators which can be used to evaluate the effects of possible interventions. In conclusion, I will move on the topics related to the transport planning, analyzing the planning process, and the variables that have to be considered to perform a feasibility analysis or to compare different alternatives. In conclusion I will perform a preliminary analysis of a new transit system which is planned to be developed in New York City.

Very Long Baseline Interferometry in Italy Wide-field VLBI imaging and astrometry and prospects for an Italian VLBI network including the Sardinia Radio Telescope

In this thesis the use of widefield imaging techniques and VLBI observations with a limited number of antennas are explored. I present techniques to efficiently and accurately image extremely large UV datasets. Very large VLBI datasets must be reduced into multiple, smaller datasets if today’s imaging algorithms are to be used to image them. I present a procedure for accurately shifting the phase centre of a visibility dataset. This procedure has been thoroughly tested and found to be almost two orders of magnitude more accurate than existing techniques. Errors have been found at the level of one part in 1.1 million. These are unlikely to be measurable except in the very largest UV datasets. Results of a four-station VLBI observation of a field containing multiple sources are presented. A 13 gigapixel image was constructed to search for sources across the entire primary beam of the array by generating over 700 smaller UV datasets. The source 1320+299A was detected and its astrometric position with respect to the calibrator J1329+3154 is presented. Various techniques for phase calibration and imaging across this field are explored including using the detected source as an in-beam calibrator and peeling of distant confusing sources from VLBI visibility datasets. A range of issues pertaining to wide-field VLBI have been explored including; parameterising the wide-field performance of VLBI arrays; estimating the sensitivity across the primary beam both for homogeneous and heterogeneous arrays; applying techniques such as mosaicing and primary beam correction to VLBI observations; quantifying the effects of time-average and bandwidth smearing; and calibration and imaging of wide-field VLBI datasets. The performance of a computer cluster at the Istituto di Radioastronomia in Bologna has been characterised with regard to its ability to correlate using the DiFX software correlator. Using existing software it was possible to characterise the network speed particularly for MPI applications. The capabilities of the DiFX software correlator, running on this cluster, were measured for a range of observation parameters and were shown to be commensurate with the generic performance parameters measured. The feasibility of an Italian VLBI array has been explored, with discussion of the infrastructure required, the performance of such an array, possible collaborations, and science which could be achieved. Results from a 22 GHz calibrator survey are also presented. 21 out of 33 sources were detected on a single baseline between two Italian antennas (Medicina to Noto). The results and discussions presented in this thesis suggest that wide-field VLBI is a technique whose time has finally come. Prospects for exciting new science are discussed in the final chapter.

Reliable and Variation-Tolerant Interconnection Network for Low Power MPSOCS

Multi-Processor SoC (MPSOC) design brings to the foreground a large number of challenges, one of the most prominent of which is the design of the chip interconnection. With a number of on-chip blocks presently ranging in the tens, and quickly approaching the hundreds, the novel issue of how to best provide on-chip communication resources is clearly felt. Scaling down of process technologies has increased process and dynamic variations as well as transistor wearout. Because of this, delay variations increase and impact the performance of the MPSoCs. The interconnect architecture inMPSoCs becomes a single point of failure as it connects all other components of the system together. A faulty processing element may be shut down entirely, but the interconnect architecture must be able to tolerate partial failure and variations and operate with performance, power or latency overhead. This dissertation focuses on techniques at different levels of abstraction to face with the reliability and variability issues in on-chip interconnection networks. By showing the test results of a GALS NoC testchip this dissertation motivates the need for techniques to detect and work around manufacturing faults and process variations in MPSoCs’ interconnection infrastructure. As a physical design technique, we propose the bundle routing framework as an effective way to route the Network on Chips’ global links. For architecture-level design, two cases are addressed: (I) Intra-cluster communication where we propose a low-latency interconnect with variability robustness (ii) Inter-cluster communication where an online functional testing with a reliable NoC configuration are proposed. We also propose dualVdd as an orthogonal way of compensating variability at the post-fabrication stage. This is an alternative strategy with respect to the design techniques, since it enforces the compensation at post silicon stage.

Neural network activity in the neonatal acute slice, slice culture and cell culture

Information processing and storage in the brain may be presented by the oscillations and cell assemblies. Here we address the question of how individual neurons associate together to assemble neural networks and present spontaneous electrical activity. Therefore, we dissected the neonatal brain at three different levels: acute 1-mm thick brain slice, cultured organotypic 350-µm thick brain slice and dissociated neuronal cultures. The spatio-temporal properties of neural activity were investigated by using a 60-channel Micro-electrode arrays (MEA), and the cell assemblies were studied by using a template-matching method. We find local on-propagating as well as large- scale propagating spontaneous oscillatory activity in acute slices, spontaneous network activity characterized by synchronized burst discharges in organotypic cultured slices, and autonomous bursting behaviour in dissociated neuronal cultures. Furthermore, repetitive spike patterns emerge after one week of dissociated neuronal culture and dramatically increase their numbers as well as their complexity and occurrence in the second week. Our data indicate that neurons can self-organize themselves, assembly to a neural network, present spontaneous oscillations, and emerge spatio-temporal activation patterns. The spontaneous oscillations and repetitive spike patterns may serve fundamental functions for information processing and storage in the brain.

Topological aspects of the human protein interaction network

It is currently widely accepted that the understanding of complex cell functions depends on an integrated network theoretical approach and not on an isolated view of the different molecular agents. Aim of this thesis was the examination of topological properties that mirror known biological aspects by depicting the human protein network with methods from graph- and network theory. The presented network is a partial human interactome of 9222 proteins and 36324 interactions, consisting of single interactions reliably extracted from peer-reviewed scientific publications. In general, one can focus on intra- or intermodular characteristics, where a functional module is defined as "a discrete entity whose function is separable from those of other modules". It is found that the presented human network is also scale-free and hierarchically organised, as shown for yeast networks before. The interactome also exhibits proteins with high betweenness and low connectivity which are biologically analyzed and interpreted here as shuttling proteins between organelles (e.g. ER to Golgi, internal ER protein translocation, peroxisomal import, nuclear pores import/export) for the first time. As an optimisation for finding proteins that connect modules, a new method is developed here based on proteins located between highly clustered regions, rather than regarding highly connected regions. As a proof of principle, the Mediator complex is found in first place, the prime example for a connector complex. Focusing on intramodular aspects, the measurement of k-clique communities discriminates overlapping modules very well. Twenty of the largest identified modules are analysed in detail and annotated to known biological structures (e.g. proteasome, the NFκB-, TGF-β complex). Additionally, two large and highly interconnected modules for signal transducer and transcription factor proteins are revealed, separated by known shuttling proteins. These proteins yield also the highest number of redundant shortcuts (by calculating the skeleton), exhibit the highest numbers of interactions and might constitute highly interconnected but spatially separated rich-clubs either for signal transduction or for transcription factors. This design principle allows manifold regulatory events for signal transduction and enables a high diversity of transcription events in the nucleus by a limited set of proteins. Altogether, biological aspects are mirrored by pure topological features, leading to a new view and to new methods that assist the annotation of proteins to biological functions, structures and subcellular localisations. As the human protein network is one of the most complex networks at all, these results will be fruitful for other fields of network theory and will help understanding complex network functions in general.

Neural network activity in the neonatal rat barrel cortex in vivo

Coordinated patterns of electrical activity are important for the early development of sensory systems. The spatiotemporal dynamics of these early activity patterns and the role of the peripheral sensory input for their generation are essentially unknown. There are two projects in this thesis. In project1, we performed extracellular multielectrode recordings in the somatosensory cortex of postnatal day 0 to 7 rats in vivo and observed three distinct patterns of synchronized oscillatory activity. (1) Spontaneous and periphery-driven spindle bursts of 1–2 s in duration and ~10 Hz in frequency occurred approximately every 10 s. (2) Spontaneous and sensory-driven gamma oscillations of 150–300 ms duration and 30–40 Hz in frequency occurred every 10–30 s. (3) Long oscillations appeared only every ~20 min and revealed the largest amplitude (250–750 µV) and longest duration (>40 s). These three distinct patterns of early oscillatory activity differently synchronized the neonatal cortical network. Whereas spindle bursts and gamma oscillations did not propagate and synchronized a local neuronal network of 200–400 µm in diameter, long oscillations propagated with 25–30 µm/s and synchronized 600-800 µm large ensembles. All three activity patterns were triggered by sensory activation. Single electrical stimulation of the whisker pad or tactile whisker activation elicited neocortical spindle bursts and gamma activity. Long oscillations could be only evoked by repetitive sensory stimulation. The neonatal oscillatory patterns in vivo depended on NMDAreceptor-mediated synaptic transmission and gap junctional coupling. Whereas spindle bursts and gamma oscillations may represent an early functional columnar-like pattern, long oscillations may serve as a propagating activation signal consolidating these immature neuronal networks. In project2, Using voltage-sensitive dye imaging and simultaneous multi-channel extracellular recordings in the barrel cortex and somatosensory thalamus of newborn rats in vivo, we found that spontaneous and whisker stimulation induced activity patterns were restricted to functional cortical columns already at the day of birth. Spontaneous and stimulus evoked cortical activity consisted of gamma oscillations followed by spindle bursts. Spontaneous events were mainly generated in the thalamus or by spontaneous whisker movements. Our findings indicate that during early developmental stages cortical networks self-organize in ontogenetic columns via spontaneous gamma oscillations triggered by the thalamus or sensory periphery.

From large polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to extended aromate-rich networks

The common ground of this study is the development of novel synthetic strategies to extended one-, two- and three-dimensional aromate-rich systems for which a number of applications are envisaged. rnThe point of departure is the synthesis and characterization of highly symmetric macrocyclic PAHs (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) for which various aspects of supramolecular chemistry will be investigated. The versatility of the Yamamoto macrocyclization will be demonstrated on the basis of a set of cyclic trimers that exhibit a rich supramolecular chemistry. 1,10-phenanthroline, triphenylene and ortho-terphenyl building blocks have been successfully assembled to the corresponding macrocycles following the newly developed synthetic route. Scanning-tunneling microscopy (STM) and two-dimensional wide-angle X-ray scattering (2D-WAXS) were used to study the two- and three-dimensional self-assembly, respectively.rnSecondly, the development of chemical approaches to highly shape-anisotropic graphene nanoribbons (GNRs) and related nanographene molecules shall be discussed. Aryl-aryl coupling was used for the bottom-up fabrication of dendronized monomers, polymers and model compounds. Subsequently, these structures were converted into the final graphene material using oxidative (Scholl-type) cyclodehydrogenation. The GNRs thus obtained are characterized by an unprecedented length and lateral extension. The relevance of structural tailoring in the field of well-defined graphene materials is discussed in detail as only the chemical approach provides full geometry control. rnLastly, novel pathways towards the synthesis of extended three-dimensional networks that are dominated by nitrogen-rich motifs will be presented. If porous, these materials hold a great potential in the fields of gas and energy storage as well as for applications in catalysis. Hence, poly(aminal) networks based on melamine as crosslinking unit were synthesized and characterized with respect to the applications mentioned above. As set of conjugated poly(azomethine) networks was investigated regarding their use as a novel class of organic semiconductors for photocatalytic water splitting. The network structures described in this chapter can also be subjected to a controlled pyrolysis yielding mesoporous, nitrogen-rich carbon materials that were evaluated as active component for supercapacitors.rn

Effects of glucosamine, chondroitin, or placebo in patients with osteoarthritis of hip or knee: network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of glucosamine, chondroitin, or the two in combination on joint pain and on radiological progression of disease in osteoarthritis of the hip or knee. Design Network meta-analysis. Direct comparisons within trials were combined with indirect evidence from other trials by using a Bayesian model that allowed the synthesis of multiple time points. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Pain intensity. Secondary outcome was change in minimal width of joint space. The minimal clinically important difference between preparations and placebo was prespecified at -0.9 cm on a 10 cm visual analogue scale. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases and conference proceedings from inception to June 2009, expert contact, relevant websites. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Large scale randomised controlled trials in more than 200 patients with osteoarthritis of the knee or hip that compared glucosamine, chondroitin, or their combination with placebo or head to head. Results 10 trials in 3803 patients were included. On a 10 cm visual analogue scale the overall difference in pain intensity compared with placebo was -0.4 cm (95% credible interval -0.7 to -0.1 cm) for glucosamine, -0.3 cm (-0.7 to 0.0 cm) for chondroitin, and -0.5 cm (-0.9 to 0.0 cm) for the combination. For none of the estimates did the 95% credible intervals cross the boundary of the minimal clinically important difference. Industry independent trials showed smaller effects than commercially funded trials (P=0.02 for interaction). The differences in changes in minimal width of joint space were all minute, with 95% credible intervals overlapping zero. Conclusions Compared with placebo, glucosamine, chondroitin, and their combination do not reduce joint pain or have an impact on narrowing of joint space. Health authorities and health insurers should not cover the costs of these preparations, and new prescriptions to patients who have not received treatment should be discouraged.