Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Aproximació a la figura dels Business Angels

Els business angels són persones físiques que inverteixen una part dels seus diners en empreses joves, tot just acabades de crear, en alguns casos fins i tot ajuden a crear-les. El nom d’àngels té el seu origen en els rics filantrops de Nova York que finançaven les obres que s’estrenaven a Broadway. Aquests filantrops invertien els seus diners en una obra de teatre, pel plaer de contribuir a la cultura, molt sovint no arribaven a recuperar mai aquests diners. Els business angels, no són filantrops, inverteixen esperant guanyar diners, però al igual que els àngels de Broadway, els mou alguna cosa més que els diners, ja que està àmpliament documentat que darrera d’aquestes inversions hi ha també raons no financeres, com ara fomentar l’esperit emprenedor o fins i tot la cerca de diversió. Podríem dir que el terme “business angel” es va encunyar a principis dels 80 als EUA, per tant aviat farà 30 anys, no obstant, encara avui, la majoria de catalans no coneixen el significat d’aquest terme. A Catalunya i Espanya anem terriblement retardats en l’estudi i la promoció d’aquesta figura en relació a països com els EUA i el Regne Unit, però també massa enrera en relació a països com Finlàndia, Suècia, Noruega i Alemanya. L’objectiu d’aquest treball és doncs oferir una complerta aproximació a aquesta figura del business angel, una figura que entenem clau en el desenvolupament empresarial i per tant una figura que cal potenciar a tots els nivells. Per tal de contextualitzar aquesta important figura, el treball parteix de l’anàlisi de la relació existent entre emprenedoria i creixement econòmic, s’endinsa després en el capital risc, per presentar finalment qui és i que fa el business angel. El treball intenta també mostrar l’abús d’usos i la inconsistència de les definicions que es donen del terme “business angel” i per tant la gran confusió que tot això genera.

Is it redistribution or centralization? On the determinants of government investment in infrastructure

The dilemma efficiency versus equity, together with political partisan interests, has received increasing attention to explain the territorial allocation of investments. However, centralization intended to introduce or reinforce hierarchization in the political system has not been object as of now of empirical analysis. Our main contribution to the literature is providing evidence that meta-political objectives related to the ordering of political power and administration influence regional investment. In this way, we find evidence that network mode’s (roads and railways) investment programs are influenced by the centralization strategy of investing near to the political capital, while investment effort in no-network modes (airports and ports) appears to be positively related to distance. Since investment in surface transportation infrastructures is much higher than that in airports and ports, and taken into account that regions surrounding the political capital are poorer than the average, we suggest that centralization rather than redistribution has been the driver for the concentration of public investment on these regions.

Accounting conservatism and firm investment efficiency

Conservatism, through the timelier recognition of losses in the income statement, is expected to increase firm investment efficiency through three main channels: (1) by decreasing the adverse effect of information asymmetries between outside equity holders and managers, facilitating the monitoring of managerial investment decisions; (2) by increasing managerial incentives to abandon poorly performing projects earlier and to undertake fewer negative net present-value investments; and (3) by facilitating the access to external financing at lower cost. Using a large US sample for the period 1990-2007 we find a negative association between conservatism and measures of over- and under- investment, and a positive association between conservatism and future profitability. This is consistent with firms reporting more conservative numbers investing more efficiently and in more profitable projects. Our results add to a growing stream of literature suggesting that eliminating conservatism from accounting regulatory frameworks may lead to undesirable economic consequences.

New trends in world wine consumption and its impact on the Spanish wineries during the second half of the twentieth century

The main goal of this research is explain the impact of the new trends of wine consumption, and the way these enterprises adapted to the circumstances. The hypothesis is that the Spanish companies had to start a deep and traumatic restructuring process, with the aim of surviving adequately in the changeable wine national and international markets. Heavy technological investments were made, with serious finance problems, during the eighties and nineties. We will see this from two specific cases, the Cooperatives "San Isidro" and "Rosario", located in the Region of Murcia, in the Spanish southeast.

Genomik und personalisierte Medizin [Genomics and personalized medicine].

Personalized medicine has a substantial potential to transform the way diseases will be predicted, prevented and treated. The field will greatly benefit from novel DNA sequencing technologies, in particular commoditization of individual whole genome sequencing. This evolution cannot be stopped, and the medical and scientific community, as well as the society at large, have the responsibility to anticipate the expected benefits from this revolution, but also the potential risks associated with it. Massive investments will be needed for the potential of personalized medicine to be realized, and for the field to come to maturity. In particular, a paradigm change in the way clinical research is done is needed. Switzerland and its Western part pro-actively anticipate these changes.

Short term evolution of a highly transmissible methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus clone (ST228) in a tertiary care hospital.

Staphylococcus aureus is recognized as one of the major human pathogens and is by far one of the most common nosocomial organisms. The genetic basis for the emergence of highly epidemic strains remains mysterious. Studying the microevolution of the different clones of S. aureus is essential for identifying the forces driving pathogen emergence and spread. The aim of the present study was to determine the genetic changes characterizing a lineage belonging to the South German clone (ST228) that spread over ten years in a tertiary care hospital in Switzerland. For this reason, we compared the whole genome of eight isolates recovered between 2001 and 2008 at the Lausanne hospital. The genetic comparison of these isolates revealed that their genomes are extremely closely related. Yet, a few more important genetic changes, such as the replacement of a plasmid, the loss of large fragments of DNA, or the insertion of transposases, were observed. These transfers of mobile genetic elements shaped the evolution of the ST228 lineage that spread within the Lausanne hospital. Nevertheless, although the strains analyzed differed in their dynamics, we have not been able to link a particular genetic element with spreading success. Finally, the present study showed that new sequencing technologies improve considerably the quality and quantity of information obtained for a single strain; but this information is still difficult to interpret and important investments are required for the technology to become accessible for routine investigations.

Regulatory federalism in network industries

Report for the scientific sojourn at the UC Berkeley, USA, from march until july 2008. This document starts by surveying the literature on economic federalism and relating it to network industries. The insights and some new developments (which focus on the role of interjurisdictional externalities, multiple objectives and investment incentives) are used to analyze regulatory arrangements in telecommunications and energy in the EU and the US. In the long history of vertically integrated monopolies in telecommunications and energy, there was a historical trend to move regulation up in the vertical structure of government, at least form the local level to the state or nation-state level. This move alleviated the pressure on regulators to renege on the commitment not to expropriate sunk investments, although it did not eliminate the practice of taxation by regulation that was the result of multiple interest group action. Although central or federal policy making is more focused and especialized and makes it difficult for more interest groups to organize, it is not clear that under all conditions central powers will not be associated with underinvestment. When technology makes the introduction of competition in some segments possible, the possibilities for organizing the institutional architechture of regulation expand. The central level may focus on structural regulation and the location of behavioral regulation of the remaining monopolists may be resolved in a cooperative way or concentrated at the level where the relevant spillovers are internalized.

Chagas disease: current epidemiological trends after the interruption of vectorial and transfusional transmission in the Southern Cone countries

Chagas disease, named after Carlos Chagas who first described it in 1909, exists only on the American Continent. It is caused by a parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi, transmitted to humans by blood-sucking triatomine bugs and by blood transfusion. Chagas disease has two successive phases, acute and chronic. The acute phase lasts 6 to 8 weeks. After several years of starting the chronic phase, 20% to 35% of the infected individuals, depending on the geographical area will develop irreversible lesions of the autonomous nervous system in the heart, esophagus, colon and the peripheral nervous system. Data on the prevalence and distribution of Chagas disease improved in quality during the 1980's as a result of the demographically representative cross-sectional studies carried out in countries where accurate information was not available. A group of experts met in Brasília in 1979 and devised standard protocols to carry out countrywide prevalence studies on human T. cruzi infection and triatomine house infestation. Thanks to a coordinated multi-country program in the Southern Cone countries the transmission of Chagas disease by vectors and by blood transfusion has been interrupted in Uruguay in1997, in Chile in 1999, and in 8 of the 12 endemic states of Brazil in 2000 and so the incidence of new infections by T. cruzi in the whole continent has decreased by 70%. Similar control multi-country initiatives have been launched in the Andean countries and in Central America and rapid progress has been recorded to ensure the interruption of the transmission of Chagas disease by 2005 as requested by a Resolution of the World Health Assembly approved in 1998. The cost-benefit analysis of the investments of the vector control program in Brazil indicate that there are savings of US$17 in medical care and disabilities for each dollar spent on prevention, showing that the program is a health investment with good return. Since the inception in 1979 of the Steering Committee on Chagas Disease of the Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases of the World Health Organization (TDR), the objective was set to promote and finance research aimed at the development of new methods and tools to control this disease. The well known research institutions in Latin America were the key elements of a world wide network of laboratories that received - on a competitive basis - financial support for projects in line with the priorities established. It is presented the time line of the different milestones that were answering successively and logically the outstanding scientific questions identified by the Scientific Working Group in 1978 and that influenced the development and industrial production of practical solutions for diagnosis of the infection and disease control.

ICT Action Plan Meeting the high-level skills needs of enterprise in Ireland

The technology sector in Ireland is thriving. Employment, through indigenous and multinational technology firms continues to grow strongly year on year. All of the top 10 multinational technology companies have a significant presence in Ireland and the indigenous software sector’s exports are worth well in excess of €1 billion annually. Five of the top 10 exporters in Ireland are technology companies, and the sector is responsible for approximately one-third of Ireland’s total turnover. Since January 2011, over 80 jobs a week have been announced in the sector. This is on foot of 6% employment growth in 2009 and 4% in 2010. A recent global competitiveness report ranks Ireland as the top destination in the world by quality and value of investments. With a growing multinational technology presence in Ireland and a vibrant and innovative indigenous software sector, the future prospects for Ireland’s technology sector are bright.

Catalunya i la Comunitat de Madrid com a pols d'atracció de la inversió estrangera directa procedent de l'Asia Oriental (1996-2004)

Aquest document descriu els valors d'inversió estrangera directa de l'Àsia oriental a escala mundial durant el període 1996-2004, per a valorar la dimensió d'aquest tipus d'inversió a Catalunya i a Madrid. Relaciona els valors d'aquesta inversió amb les taxes de comerç exterior amb l'Àsia oriental i amb els valors d'immigració asiàtica a Catalunya i a Madrid.

China y la globalización del mercado automovilístico : efectos sobre las empresas catalanas de componentes

Estudi centrat en el sector de components d'algunes empreses catalanes que tendeixen a buscar inversions en els països asiàtics com a mesura d'adaptació al nou ordre, mitjançant la seva unió amb empreses locals del país destinació conegudes com joint-ventures.

Job Insecurity and the Timing of Parenthood: A Comparison between Eastern and Western Germany

This article contributes to the ongoing debate on the economic deter- minants of fertility behavior by addressing the role of job insecurity in couples' intentions concerning parenthood and its timing. It starts from the hypothesis that cultural values moderate individuals' reactions to job insecurity and the way it is related to family formation. With a systematic thematic content analysis of a set of semi-structured interviews with childless men and women around the age of 30 in eastern and western Germany, we are able to show that there are substantial dif- ferences in the consequences of job insecurity on intentions to have a first child. In western Germany, a relatively secure job career is expected to precede family formation, and this sequence of transitions is rather rigid, whereas in eastern Germany job security and family formation are thought of and practiced as parallel investments. We suggest that the lack of convergence in family formation patterns between eastern and western Germany after the unification of the country in 1990 is partially related to different attitudes toward job insecurity in the two contexts.

Innovación, financiación y mercados financieros : análisis de las relaciones entre inversión en I+D, estructura de capital y señalización contable

Aquest treball té com a objectiu determinar l'existència de restriccions en el finançament de projectes empresarials de recerca i desenvolupament (R+D) i analitzar-ne les causes. Els resultats de la investigació mostren els fets següents: en primer lloc, hi ha restriccions financeres per a la realització d'inversions en R+D i es manifesten en la necessitat de les empreses de recórrer a recursos interns i a fons aliens a curt termini; en segon lloc, les restriccions esmentades fonamentalment sorgeixen a causa de dos factors, el desequilibri entre les característiques econòmiques de les inversions d'R+D i el comportament dels agents finançadors en els mercats de capitals, i l'existència d'asimetries d'informació entre agents gestors i finançadors; finalment, en tercer lloc, la formulació per part de les empreses de més informació comptable sobre l'R+D desenvolupada comporta la millora de la valoració de l'empresa en els mercats financers i, per tant, l'assignació de fons als processos d'innovació.

War and Natural Resource Exploitation

We build a theoretical framework that allows for endogenous conflict behaviour (i.e., fighting efforts) and for endogenous natural resource exploitation (i.e., speed, ownership, and investments). While depletion is spread in a balanced Hotelling fashion during peace, the presence of conflict creates incentives for rapacious extraction, as this lowers the stakes of future contest. This voracious extraction depresses total oil revenue, especially if world oil demand is relatively elastic and the government's weapon advantage is weak. Some of these political distortions can be overcome by bribing rebels or by government investment in weapons. The shadow of conflict can also make less efficient nationalized oil extraction more attractive than private extraction, as insecure property rights create a holdup problem for the private firm and lead to a lower license fee. Furthermore, the government fights less intensely than the rebels under private exploitation, which leads to more government turnover. Without credible commitment to future fighting efforts, private oil depletion is only lucrative if the government's non-oil office rents are large and weaponry powerful, which guarantees the government a stronger grip on office and makes the holdup problem less severe.