958 resultados para free cash flow model
Resumo:
Dust can affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere by absorbing or reflecting incoming solar radiation and it can be a source of micronutrients, such as iron, to the ocean. It has been suggested that production, transport, and deposition of dust is influenced by climatic changes on glacial-interglacial timescales. Here we present a high-resolution aeolian dust record from the EPICA Dome C ice core in East Antarctica, which provides an undisturbed climate sequence over the last eight climatic cycles. We find that there is a significant correlation between dust flux and temperature records during glacial periods that is absent during interglacial periods. Our data suggests that dust flux is increasingly correlated with Antarctic temperature as climate becomes colder. We interpret this as progressive coupling of Antarctic and lower latitudes climate. Limited changes in glacial-interglacial atmospheric transport time Mahowald et al. (1999, doi:10.1029/1999JD900084), Jouzel et al. (2007, doi:10.1126/science.1141038), and Werner et al. (2002, doi:10.1029/2002JD002365) suggest that the sources and lifetime of dust are the major factors controlling the high glacial dust input. We propose that the observed ~25-fold increase in glacial dust flux over all eight glacial periods can be attributed to a strengthening of South American dust sources, together with a longer atmospheric dust particle life-time in the upper troposphere resulting from a reduced hydrological cycle during the ice ages.
Resumo:
A chronology called EDML1 has been developed for the EPICA ice core from Dronning Maud Land (EDML). EDML1 is closely interlinked with EDC3, the new chronology for the EPICA ice core from Dome-C (EDC) through a stratigraphic match between EDML and EDC that consists of 322 volcanic match points over the last 128 ka. The EDC3 chronology comprises a glaciological model at EDC, which is constrained and later selectively tuned using primary dating information from EDC as well as from EDML, the latter being transferred using the tight stratigraphic link between the two cores. Finally, EDML1 was built by exporting EDC3 to EDML. For ages younger than 41 ka BP the new synchronized time scale EDML1/EDC3 is based on dated volcanic events and on a match to the Greenlandic ice core chronology GICC05 via 10Be and methane. The internal consistency between EDML1 and EDC3 is estimated to be typically ~6 years and always less than 450 years over the last 128 ka (always less than 130 years over the last 60 ka), which reflects an unprecedented synchrony of time scales. EDML1 ends at 150 ka BP (2417 m depth) because the match between EDML and EDC becomes ambiguous further down. This hints at a complex ice flow history for the deepest 350 m of the EDML ice core.
Aplicación de la teoría de opciones reales a la determinación del momento óptimo de cosecha forestal
Resumo:
Se propone el enfoque de opciones reales como herramienta económico-financiera para la toma de decisiones estratégicas en el sector forestal. En términos de instrumentos financieros, consideraremos en particular una opción exótica conocida como barrier option del tipo knock-in. Suponemos que la proyección del precio de venta promedio de los subproductos sigue un proceso estocástico del tipo Geométrico Browniano, mientras que la producción se determina mediante simulación de un turno forestal. La decisión de talar la masa forestal surge de comparar en cada periodo, el valor de flujo de fondos en cada nodo (FFij(t)) de una rejilla binomial con el valor esperado en el próximo año (X t+1 x e−rΔ t) ). En un ejemplo analizado el criterio tradicional del VAN indica que el mayor valor actual se produce en el instante t = 0 (año 10), mientras que el enfoque de opciones reales arroja que el máximo valor de ejercicio se da en el periodo t = 8 (año 18).
Resumo:
El objetivo del presente trabajo fue analizar el impacto micro-económico que produce la introducción del cultivo de frambuesa en una pyme hortícola de Coronda, dedicada esencialmente a la producción de frutillas.El patrón de diversificación actual es escaso, debido principalmente a las limitaciones financieras existentes a nivel predial. Se combina el cultivo de frutilla con otras hortalizas, a contra-ciclo, tales como zapallito, berenjena, choclo, sandía y melón. Se analizaron los resultados económicos del ejercicio 2009/2010 de una empresa pyme, estudiada como caso, con una Superficie Agrícola Útil de 5,5 ha, que implantó en el ejercicio evaluado 2 ha de frutilla e introdujo 0,5 ha de frambuesa al esquema productivo, en reemplazo de alguno de los cultivos hortícolas que realizaba. Se obtuvo un Ingreso al capital equivalente a $ 59.786, una rentabilidad sobre el capital total de 12,95 % y sobre el capital sin tierra de 28,79 %. Estos tres indicadores mostraron un incremento de 258%, 248% y 236% respecto de la situación sin frambuesa, respectivamente. Se mejora el grado de diversificación analizado a través del Índice de Entropía y exhibe una excelente complementariedad tanto en el aspecto financiero como laboral.
Resumo:
Four models of fission track annealing in apatite are compared with measured fission track lengths in samples from Site 800 in the East Mariana Basin, Ocean Drilling Program Leg 129, given an independently determined temperature history. The temperature history of Site 800 was calculated using a one-dimensional, compactive, conductive heat flow model assuming two end-member thermal cases: one for cooling of Jurassic ocean crust that has experienced no subsequent heating, and one for cooling of Cretaceous ocean crust. Because the samples analyzed were only shallowly buried and because the tectonic history of the area since sample deposition is simple, resolution of the temperature history is high. The maximum temperature experienced by the sampled bed is between 16°-21°C and occurs at 96 Ma; temperatures since the Cretaceous have dropped in spite of continued pelagic sediment deposition because heat flow has continued to decay exponentially and bottom-water temperatures have dropped. Fission tracks observed within apatite grains from the sampled bed are 14.6 +/- 0.1 µm (1 sigma) long. Given the proposed temperature history of the samples, one unpublished and three published models of fission track annealing predict mean track lengths from 14.8 to 15.9 µm. These models require temperatures as much as 40°C higher than the calculated paleotemperature maximum of the sampled bed to produce the same degree of track annealing. Measured and predicted values are different because annealing models are based on extrapolation of high temperature laboratory data to geologic times. The model that makes the closest prediction is based on the greatest number of experiments performed at low temperature and on an apatite having composition closest to that of the core samples.
Resumo:
A stratigraphy-based chronology for the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice core has been derived by transferring the annual layer counted Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) and its model extension (GICC05modelext) from the NGRIP core to the NEEM core using 787 match points of mainly volcanic origin identified in the electrical conductivity measurement (ECM) and dielectrical profiling (DEP) records. Tephra horizons found in both the NEEM and NGRIP ice cores are used to test the matching based on ECM and DEP and provide five additional horizons used for the timescale transfer. A thinning function reflecting the accumulated strain along the core has been determined using a Dansgaard-Johnsen flow model and an isotope-dependent accumulation rate parameterization. Flow parameters are determined from Monte Carlo analysis constrained by the observed depth-age horizons. In order to construct a chronology for the gas phase, the ice age-gas age difference (Delta age) has been reconstructed using a coupled firn densification-heat diffusion model. Temperature and accumulation inputs to the Delta age model, initially derived from the water isotope proxies, have been adjusted to optimize the fit to timing constraints from d15N of nitrogen and high-resolution methane data during the abrupt onset of Greenland interstadials. The ice and gas chronologies and the corresponding thinning function represent the first chronology for the NEEM core, named GICC05modelext-NEEM-1. Based on both the flow and firn modelling results, the accumulation history for the NEEM site has been reconstructed. Together, the timescale and accumulation reconstruction provide the necessary basis for further analysis of the records from NEEM.
Resumo:
A tentative age scale (EDC1) for the last 45 kyr is established for the new 788 m EPICA Dome C ice core using a simple ice flow model. The age of volcanic eruptions, the end of the Younger Dryas event, and the estimated depth and age of elevated 10Be, about 41 kyr ago were used to calibrate the model parameters. The uncertainty of EDC1 is estimated to ±10 yr for 0 to 700 yr BP, up to ±200 yr back to 10 kyr BP, and up to ±2 kyr back to 41 kyr BP. The age of the air in the bubbles is calculated with a firn densification model. In the Holocene the air is about 2000 yr younger than the ice and about 5500 yr during the last glacial maximum.
Resumo:
The data collection "Deep Drilling of Glaciers: Soviet-Russian projects in Arctic, 1975-1995" was collected by the following basic considerations: - compilation of deep (>100 m) drilling projects on Arctic glaciers, using data of (a) publications; (b) archives of IGRAN; (c) personal communication of project participants; - documentation of parameters, references. Accuracy of data and techniques applied to determine different parameters are not evaluated. The accuracy of some geochemical parameters (up to 1984 and heavy metalls) is uncertain. Most reconstructions of ice core age and of annual layer thickness are discussed; - digitizing of published diagrams (in case, when original numerical data were lost) and subsequent data conversion to equal range series and adjustment to the common units. Therefore, the equal-range series were calculated from original data or converted from digitized chart values as indicated in the metadata. For the methodological purpose, the equal-range series obtained from original and reconstructed data were compared repeatedly; the systematic difference was less then 5-7%. Special attention should be given to the fact, that the data for individual ice core parameters varies, because some parameters were originally measured or registered. Parameters were converted in equal-range series using 2 m steps; - two or more parameter values were determined, then the mean-weighted (i.e. accounting the sample length) value is assigned to the entire interval; - one parameter value was determined, measured or registered independently from the parameter values in depth intervals which over- and underlie it, then the value is assigned to the entire interval; - one parameter value was determined, measured or registered for two adjoining depth intervals, then the specific value is assigned to the depth interval, which represents >75% of sample length ; if each of adjoining depth intervals represents <75% of sample length, then the correspondent parameter value is assigned to both intervals of depth. This collection of ice core data (version 2000) was made available through the EU funded QUEEN project by S.M. Arkhipov, Moscow.
Resumo:
The EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Dome C drilling in East Antarctica has now been completed to a depth of 3260 m, at only a few meters above bedrock. Here we present the new EDC3 chronology, which is based on the use of 1) a snow accumulation and mechanical flow model, and 2) a set of independent age markers along the core. These are obtained by pattern matching of recorded parameters to either absolutely dated paleoclimatic records, or to insolation variations. We show that this new time scale is in excellent agreement with the Dome Fuji and Vostok ice core time scales back to 100 kyr within 1 kyr. Discrepancies larger than 3 kyr arise during MIS 5.4, 5.5 and 6, which points to anomalies in either snow accumulation or mechanical flow during these time periods. We estimate that EDC3 gives accurate event durations within 20% (2 sigma) back to MIS11 and accurate absolute ages with a maximum uncertainty of 6 kyr back to 800 kyr.
Resumo:
A high-resolution deuterium profile is now available along the entire European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C ice core, extending this climate record back to marine isotope stage 20.2, ~800,000 years ago. Experiments performed with an atmospheric general circulation model including water isotopes support its temperature interpretation. We assessed the general correspondence between Dansgaard-Oeschger events and their smoothed Antarctic counterparts for this Dome C record, which reveals the presence of such features with similar amplitudes during previous glacial periods. We suggest that the interplay between obliquity and precession accounts for the variable intensity of interglacial periods in ice core records. Temperature was estimated after correction for sea-water isotopic composition (Bintanja et al, 2005) and for ice sheet elevation (Parrenin et al, 2007) on EDC3 age scale (Parrenin et al, 2007).
Resumo:
Accumulation rates in the eastern part of Ronne Ice Shelf were determined by isotopic stratigraphy (18O). The samples were taken from snow-pits dug during the Filchner I and II operations in 1984 and 1986. In general, the accumulation rate decreases towards the south; the greatest decrease, from 21.3 to 13.3 g/cm**2/a, was observed between Filchner Station and measuring point 341, sited 270 km up-stream of the ice edge. The d18O values of the near-surface layers vary between -25 and -29 per mil. The 18O content in the more southerly part is progressively depleted in the direction of Möllereisstrom, paralleling a decrease in the accumulation rate. Near the ice edge the 18O content decreases to the west. A 100 m ice core drilled in 1984 at point 340, 22 km from the ice edge, probably goes back to A.D. 1460; it has been dated by isotopic stratigraphy. The accumulation rate up-stream of the drilling site was deduced from the sequence of annual layers, using a simple ice-flow model. The accumulation shows strong variations over the last 200 years, which may be caused in part by local variations in the accumulation on Ronne Ice shelf.