Análise espaço-temporal do escoamento fluvial nas bacias hidrográficas dos rios Aguapeí e Peixe, Oeste Paulista, Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Alocação ótima de equipamentos SVC e TCSC na rede de transmissão de energia elétrica

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

The response of the Sao Paulo Continental Shelf, Brazil, to synoptic winds

The response of the Sao Paulo Continental Shelf (SPCS) to synoptic wind forcing has been analyzed. Two different methods are used for this purpose, one based on hydrographic data, bottom topography, and geographical characteristics, and a second on analyzing currentmeter data directly and using empirical orthogonal functions. Both methods show similar results for an essentially barotropic shelf. The SPCS response in the subinertial frequency band appears to be trapped on the continental shelf. Numerical experiments have also been carried out showing results that qualitatively agree with the observations, including the velocity component parallel to the coastline.

Is the meander growth in the Brazil Current system off Southeast Brazil due to baroclinic instability?

Temporally-growing frontal meandering and occasional eddy-shedding is observed in the Brazil Current (BC) as it flows adjacent to the Brazilian Coast. No study of the dynamics of this phenomenon has been conducted to date in the region between 22 degrees S and 25 degrees S. Within this latitude range, the flow over the intermediate continental slope is marked by a current inversion at a depth that is associated with the Intermediate Western Boundary Current (IWBC). A time series analysis of 10-current-meter mooring data was used to describe a mean vertical profile for the BC-IWBC jet and a typical meander vertical structure. The latter was obtained by an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis that showed a single mode explaining 82% of the total variance. This mode structure decayed sharply with depth, revealing that the meandering is much more vigorous within the BC domain than it is in the IWBC region. As the spectral analysis of the mode amplitude time series revealed no significant periods, we searched for dominant wavelengths. This search was done via a spatial EOF analysis on 51 thermal front patterns derived from digitized AVHRR images. Four modes were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Modes 3 and 4, which together explained 18% of the total variance, are associated with 266 and 338-km vorticity waves, respectively. With this new information derived from the data, the [Johns, W.E., 1988. One-dimensional baroclinically unstable waves on the Gulf Stream potential vorticity gradient near Cape Hatteras. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 11, 323-350] one-dimensional quasi-geostrophic model was applied to the interpolated mean BC-IWBC jet. The results indicated that the BC system is indeed baroclinically unstable and that the wavelengths depicted in the thermal front analysis are associated with the most unstable waves produced by the model. Growth rates were about 0.06 (0.05) days(-1) for the 266-km (338-km) wave. Moreover, phase speeds for these waves were low compared to the surface BC velocity and may account for remarks in the literature about growing standing or stationary meanders off southeast Brazil. The theoretical vertical structure modes associated with these waves resembled very closely to the one obtained for the current-meter mooring EOF analysis. We interpret this agreement as a confirmation that baroclinic instability is an important mechanism in meander growth in the BC system. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An integrated GIS for sedimentological and geomorphological analysis of a lagoon environment. Barra de Cananeia inlet region, (Southeastern Brazil)

The aim of this work is to use GIS integration data to characterize sedimentary processes in a SubTropical lagoon environment. The study area was the Canan,ia Inlet estuary in the southeastern section of the Canan,ia Lagoon Estuarine System (CLES), state of So Paulo, Brazil (25A degrees 03'S/47A degrees 53'W). The area is formed by the confluence of two estuarine channels forming a bay-shaped water body locally called "Trapand, Bay". The region is surrounded by one of the most preserved tracts of Atlantic Rain Forest in Southwestern Brazil and presents well-developed mangroves and marshes. In this study a methodology was developed using integrated a GIS database based on bottom sediment parameters, geomorphological data, remote sensing images, Hidrodynamical Modeling data and geophysical parameters. The sediment grain size parameters and the bottom morphology of the lagoon were also used to develop models of net sediment transport pathways. It was possible to observe that the sediment transport vectors based on the grain size model had a good correlation with the transport model based on the bottom topography features and Hydrodynamic model, especially in areas with stronger energetic conditions, with a minor contribution of finer sediments. This relation is somewhat less evident near shallower banks and depositional features. In these regions the organic matter contents in the sediments was a good complementary tool for inferring the hydrodynamic and depositional conditions (i.e. primary productivity, sedimentation rates, sources, oxi-reduction rates).

Aerial Rivers and Lakes: Looking at Large-Scale Moisture Transport and Its Relation to Amazonia and to Subtropical Rainfall in South America

This is an observational study of the large-scale moisture transport over South America, with some analyses on its relation to subtropical rainfall. The concept of aerial rivers is proposed as a framework: it is an analogy between the main pathways of moisture flow in the atmosphere and surface rivers. Opposite to surface rivers, aerial rivers gain (lose) water through evaporation (precipitation). The magnitude of the vertically integrated moisture transport is discharge, and precipitable water is like the mass of the liquid column-multiplied by an equivalent speed it gives discharge. Trade wind flow into Amazonia, and the north/northwesterly flow to the subtropics, east of the Andes, are aerial rivers. Aerial lakes are the sections of a moisture pathway where the flow slows down and broadens, because of diffluence, and becomes deeper, with higher precipitable water. This is the case over Amazonia, downstream of the trade wind confluence. In the dry season, moisture from the aerial lake is transported northeastward, but weaker flow over southern Amazonia heads southward toward the subtropics. Southern Amazonia appears as a source of moisture to this flow. Aerial river discharge to the subtropics is comparable to that of the Amazon River. The variations of the amount of moisture coming from Amazonia have an important effect over the variability of discharge. Correlations between the flow from Amazonia and subtropical rainfall are not strong. However, some months within the set of dry seasons observed showed a strong increase (decrease) occurring together with an important increase (decrease) in subtropical rainfall.

Modellazione bidimensionale della propagazione nell'entroterra della inondazione da mare negli scenari dei previsti cambiamenti climatici

Le ricerche di carattere eustatico, mareografico, climatico, archeologico e geocronologico, sviluppatesi soprattutto nell’ultimo ventennio, hanno messo in evidenza che gran parte delle piane costiere italiane risulta soggetta al rischio di allagamento per ingressione marina dovuta alla risalita relativa del livello medio del mare. Tale rischio è la conseguenza dell’interazione tra la presenza di elementi antropici e fenomeni di diversa natura, spesso difficilmente discriminabili e quantificabili, caratterizzati da magnitudo e velocità molto diverse tra loro. Tra le cause preponderanti che determinano l’ingressione marina possono essere individuati alcuni fenomeni naturali, climatici e geologici, i quali risultano fortemente influenzati dalle attività umane soprattutto a partire dal XX secolo. Tra questi si individuano: - la risalita del livello del mare, principalmente come conseguenza del superamento dell’ultimo acme glaciale e dello scioglimento delle grandi calotte continentali; - la subsidenza. Vaste porzioni delle piane costiere italiane risultano soggette a fenomeni di subsidenza. In certe zone questa assume proporzioni notevoli: per la fascia costiera emiliano-romagnola si registrano ratei compresi tra 1 e 3 cm/anno. Tale subsidenza è spesso il risultato della sovrapposizione tra fenomeni naturali (neotettonica, costipamento di sedimenti, ecc.) e fenomeni indotti dall’uomo (emungimenti delle falde idriche, sfruttamento di giacimenti metaniferi, escavazione di materiali per l’edilizia, ecc.); - terreni ad elevato contenuto organico: la presenza di depositi fortemente costipabili può causare la depressione del piano di campagna come conseguenza di abbassamenti del livello della falda superficiale (per drenaggi, opere di bonifica, emungimenti), dello sviluppo dei processi di ossidazione e decomposizione nei terreni stessi, del costipamento di questi sotto il proprio peso, della carenza di nuovi apporti solidi conseguente alla diminuita frequenza delle esondazioni dei corsi d’acqua; - morfologia: tra i fattori di rischio rientra l’assetto morfologico della piana e, in particolare il tipo di costa (lidi, spiagge, cordoni dunari in smantellamento, ecc. ), la presenza di aree depresse o comunque vicine al livello del mare (fino a 1-2 m s.l.m.), le caratteristiche dei fondali antistanti (batimetria, profilo trasversale, granulometria dei sedimenti, barre sommerse, assenza di barriere biologiche, ecc.); - stato della linea di costa in termini di processi erosivi dovuti ad attività umane (urbanizzazione del litorale, prelievo inerti, costruzione di barriere, ecc.) o alle dinamiche idro-sedimentarie naturali cui risulta soggetta (correnti litoranee, apporti di materiale, ecc. ). Scopo del presente studio è quello di valutare la probabilità di ingressione del mare nel tratto costiero emiliano-romagnolo del Lido delle Nazioni, la velocità di propagazione del fronte d’onda, facendo riferimento allo schema idraulico del crollo di una diga su letto asciutto (problema di Riemann) basato sul metodo delle caratteristiche, e di modellare la propagazione dell’inondazione nell’entroterra, conseguente all’innalzamento del medio mare . Per simulare tale processo è stato utilizzato il complesso codice di calcolo bidimensionale Mike 21. La fase iniziale di tale lavoro ha comportato la raccolta ed elaborazione mediante sistema Arcgis dei dati LIDAR ed idrografici multibeam , grazie ai quali si è provveduto a ricostruire la topo-batimetria di dettaglio della zona esaminata. Nel primo capitolo è stato sviluppato il problema del cambiamento climatico globale in atto e della conseguente variazione del livello marino che, secondo quanto riportato dall’IPCC nel rapporto del 2007, dovrebbe aumentare al 2100 mediamente tra i 28 ed i 43 cm. Nel secondo e terzo capitolo è stata effettuata un’analisi bibliografica delle metodologie per la modellazione della propagazione delle onde a fronte ripido con particolare attenzione ai fenomeni di breaching delle difese rigide ed ambientali. Sono state studiate le fenomenologie che possono inficiare la stabilità dei rilevati arginali, realizzati sia in corrispondenza dei corsi d’acqua, sia in corrispondenza del mare, a discapito della protezione idraulica del territorio ovvero dell’incolumità fisica dell’uomo e dei territori in cui esso vive e produce. In un rilevato arginale, quale che sia la causa innescante la formazione di breccia, la generazione di un’onda di piena conseguente la rottura è sempre determinata da un’azione erosiva (seepage o overtopping) esercitata dall’acqua sui materiali sciolti costituenti il corpo del rilevato. Perciò gran parte dello studio in materia di brecce arginali è incentrato sulla ricostruzione di siffatti eventi di rottura. Nel quarto capitolo è stata calcolata la probabilità, in 5 anni, di avere un allagamento nella zona di interesse e la velocità di propagazione del fronte d’onda. Inoltre è stata effettuata un’analisi delle condizioni meteo marine attuali (clima ondoso, livelli del mare e correnti) al largo della costa emiliano-romagnola, le cui problematiche e linee di intervento per la difesa sono descritte nel quinto capitolo, con particolare riferimento alla costa ferrarese, oggetto negli ultimi anni di continui interventi antropici. Introdotto il sistema Gis e le sue caratteristiche, si è passati a descrivere le varie fasi che hanno permesso di avere in output il file delle coordinate x, y, z dei punti significativi della costa, indispensabili al fine della simulazione Mike 21, le cui proprietà sono sviluppate nel sesto capitolo.

A LES study of a modified Ahmed body geometry

A numerical study using Large Eddy Simulation Coherent Structure Model (LES-CSM), of the flow around a simplified Ahmed body, has been done in this work of thesis. The models used are two salient geometries from the experimental investigation performed in [1], and consist, in particular, in two notch-back body geometries. Six simulation are carried out in total, changing Reynolds number and back-light angle of the model’s rear part. The Reynolds numbers used, based on the height of the models and the free stream velocity, are Re = 10000, Re = 30000 and Re = 50000. The back-light angles of the slanted surface with respect to the horizontal roof surface, that characterizes the vehicle, are taken as B = 31.8◦ and B = 42◦ respectively. The experimental results in [1] have shown that, depending on the parameter B, asymmetric and symmetric averaged flow over the back-light and in the wake for a symmetric geometry can be observed. The aims of the present work of master thesis are principally two. The first aim is to investigate and confirm the influence of the parameter B on the presence of the asymmetry of the averaged flow, and confirm the features described in the experimental results. The second important aspect is to investigate and observe the influence of the second variable, the Reynolds number, in the developing of the asymmetric flow itself. The results have shown the presence of the mentioned asymmetry as well as an influence of the Reynolds number on it.

Laser Doppler flowmetry for assessment of anterior mandibular teeth in conjunction with bone harvesting in the symphysis: a clinical pilot study

PURPOSE: To evaluate the pulp sensitivity and vitality of mandibular incisors and canines before and after bone harvesting in the symphysis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In 20 patients requiring bone grafts from the symphysis, pulp sensitivity (carbon dioxide [CO2]) and pulpal blood flow (laser Doppler flowmetry [LDF]) of mandibular incisors and canines were evaluated preoperatively, postoperatively, and 6 months after surgery. Teeth were allocated to 1 of 3 groups according to their initial and final reaction to CO2 (group A = teeth with a positive reaction throughout the study, group B = teeth that exhibited a sensitivity change from positive to negative, and group C = teeth with a negative reaction throughout the study). RESULTS: Preoperative flux measurements (LDF) did not differ between groups A, B, and C. Teeth with sensitivity changes (group B) showed the greatest decrease (a statistically significant decrease) of pulpal blood flow over time, whereas teeth in groups A and C demonstrated an insignificant reduction of flux over time. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: LDF was purely used as an experimental tool in the present study. Pulpal blood flow measurements using LDF demonstrated a decrease of flux over time in anterior mandibular teeth following bone harvesting in the symphysis. A significant change of flux, however, was only observed for teeth that also demonstrated a loss of pulp sensitivity during the same study period. Loss of pulp sensitivity appeared to be correlated to a significant decrease of blood flow assessed by LDF.

Holocene climatic change and the development of the lake-effect snowbelt in Michigan, USA

Lake-effect snow is an important constraint on ecological and socio-economic systems near the North American Great Lakes. Little is known about the Holocene history of lake-effect snowbelts, and it is difficult to decipher how lake-effect snowfall abundance affected ecosystem development. We conducted oxygen-isotope analysis of calcite in lake-sediment cores from northern Lower Michigan to infer Holocene climatic variation and assess snowbelt development. The two lakes experience the same synoptic-scale climatic systems, but only one of them (Huffman Lake) receives a significant amount of lake-effect snow. A 177-cm difference in annual snowfall causes groundwater inflow at Huffman Lake to be 18O-depleted by 2.3‰ relative to O'Brien Lake. To assess when the lake-effect snowbelt became established, we compared calcite-δ18O profiles of the last 11,500 years from these two sites. The chronologies are based on accelerator-mass-spectrometry 14C ages of 11 and 17 terrestrial-plant samples from Huffman and O'Brien lakes, respectively. The values of δ18O are low at both sites from 11,500 to 9500 cal yr BP when the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) exerted a dominant control over the regional climate and provided periodic pulses of meltwater to the Great Lakes basin. Carbonate δ18O increases by 2.6‰ at O'Brien Lake and by 1.4‰ at Huffman Lake between 9500 and 7000 cal yr BP, suggesting a regional decline in the proportion of runoff derived from winter precipitation. The Great Lakes snowbelt probably developed between 9500 and 5500 cal yr BP as inferred from the progressive 18O-depletion at Huffman Lake relative to O'Brien Lake, with the largest increase of lake-effect snow around 7000 cal yr BP. Lake-effect snow became possible at this time because of increasing contact between the Great Lakes and frigid arctic air. These changes resulted from enhanced westerly flow over the Great Lakes as the LIS collapsed, and from rapidly rising Great Lakes levels during the Nipissing Transgression. The δ18O difference between Huffman and O'Brien lakes declines after 5500 cal yr BP, probably because of a northward shift of the polar vortex that brought increasing winter precipitation to the entire region. However, δ18O remains depleted at Huffman Lake relative to O'Brien Lake because of the continued production of lake-effect snow.

The role of upper-level dynamics and surface processes for the Pakistan flood of July 2010

In July and August 2010 floods of unprecedented impact afflicted Pakistan. The floods resulted from a series of intense multi-day precipitation events in July and early August. At the same time a series of blocking anticyclones dominated the upper-level flow over western Russia and breaking waves i.e. equatorward extrusions of stratospheric high potential vorticity (PV) air formed along the downstream flank of the blocks. Previous studies suggested that these extratropical upper-level breaking waves were crucial for instigating the precipitation events in Pakistan. Here a detailed analysis is provided of the extratropical forcing of the precipitation. Piecewise PV inversion is used to quantify the extratropical upper-level forcing associated with the wave breaking and trajectories are calculated to study the pathways and source regions of the moisture that precipitated over Pakistan. Limited-area model simulations are carried out to complement the Lagrangian analysis. The precipitation events over Pakistan resulted from a combination of favourable boundary conditions with strong extratropical and monsoonal forcing factors. Above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean led to an elevated lower-tropospheric moisture content. Surface monsoonal depressions ensured the transport of moist air from the ocean towards northeastern Pakistan. Along this pathway the air parcel humidity increased substantially (60–90% of precipitated moisture) via evapotranspiration from the land surface. Extratropical breaking waves influenced the surface wind field substantially by enhancing the wind component directed towards the mountains which reinforced the precipitation.

Repeated and predictable patterns of ecotypic differentiation during a biological invasion: lake-stream divergence in parapatric Swiss stickleback

The relative importance of ecological selection and geographical isolation in promoting and constraining genetic and phenotypic differentiation among populations is not always obvious. Interacting with divergent selection, restricted opportunity for gene flow may in some cases be as much a cause as a consequence of adaptation, with the latter being a hallmark of ecologi- cal speciation. Ecological speciation is well studied in parts of the native range of the three-spined stickleback. Here, we study this process in a recently invaded part of its range. Switzerland was colonized within the past 140 years from at least three different colonization events involving differ- ent stickleback lineages. They now occupy diverse habitats, ranging from small streams to the pelagic zone of large lakes. We use replicated systems of parapatric lake and stream populations, some of which trace their origins to different invasive lineages, to ask (i) whether phenotypic divergence occurred among populations inhabiting distinct habitats, (ii) whether trajec- tories of phenotypic divergence follow predictable parallel patterns and (iii) whether gene flow constrains divergent adaptation or vice versa. We find consistent phenotypic divergence between populations occupying distinct habitats. This involves parallel evolution in several traits with known eco- logical relevance in independent evolutionary lineages. Adaptive divergence supersedes homogenizing gene flow even at a small spatial scale. We find evidence that adaptive phenotypic divergence places constraints on gene flow over and above that imposed by geographical distance, signalling the early onset of ecological speciation.

Relating in situ gas measurements to the surface outgassing properties of cometary nuclei

The sensitivity of the gas flow field to changes in different initial conditions has been studied for the case of a highly simplified cometary nucleus model. The nucleus model simulated a homogeneously outgassing sphere with a more active ring around an axis of symmetry. The varied initial conditions were the number density of the homogeneous region, the surface temperature, and the composition of the flow (varying amounts of H2O and CO2) from the active ring. The sensitivity analysis was performed using the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) method. Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) was used for the flow, thereby allowing strong deviations from local thermal equilibrium. The PCE approach can be used to produce a sensitivity analysis with only four runs per modified input parameter and allows one to study and quantify non-linear responses of measurable parameters to linear changes in the input over a wide range. Hence the PCE allows one to obtain a functional relationship between the flow field properties at every point in the inner coma and the input conditions. It is for example shown that the velocity and the temperature of the background gas are not simply linear functions of the initial number density at the source. As probably expected, the main influence on the resulting flow field parameter is the corresponding initial parameter (i.e. the initial number density determines the background number density, the temperature of the surface determines the flow field temperature, etc.). However, the velocity of the flow field is also influenced by the surface temperature while the number density is not sensitive to the surface temperature at all in our model set-up. Another example is the change in the composition of the flow over the active area. Such changes can be seen in the velocity but again not in the number density. Although this study uses only a simple test case, we suggest that the approach, when applied to a real case in 3D, should assist in identifying the sensitivity of gas parameters measured in situ by, for example, the Rosetta spacecraft to the surface boundary conditions and vice versa.

Accuracy of tidal breathing measurement of FloRight compared to an ultrasonic flowmeter in infants.

INTRODUCTION Monitoring breathing pattern is especially relevant in infants with lung disease. Recently, a vest-based inductive plethysmograph system (FloRight®) has been developed for tidal breathing measurement in infants. We investigated the accuracy of tidal breathing flow volume loop (TBFVL) measurements in healthy term-born infants and infants with lung disease by the vest-based system in comparison to an ultrasonic flowmeter (USFM) with a face mask. We also investigated whether the system discriminates between healthy infants and those with lung disease. METHODS Floright® measures changes in thoracoabdominal volume during tidal breathing through magnetic field changes generated by current-carrying conductor coils in an elastic vest. Simultaneous TBFVL measurements by the vest-based system and the USFM were performed at 44 weeks corrected postmenstrual age during quiet unsedated sleep. TBFVL parameters derived by both techniques and within both groups were compared. RESULTS We included 19 healthy infants and 18 infants with lung disease. Tidal volume per body weight derived by the vest-based system was significantly lower with a mean difference (95% CI) of -1.33 ml/kg (-1.73; -0.92), P < 0.001. Respiratory rate and ratio of time to peak tidal expiratory flow over total expiratory time (tPTEF/tE) did not differ between the two techniques. Both systems were able to discriminate between healthy infants and those with lung disease using tPTEF/tE. CONCLUSION FloRight® accurately measures time indices and may discriminate between healthy infants and those with lung disease, but demonstrates differences in tidal volume measurements. It may be better suited to monitor breathing pattern than for TBFVL measurements.

An individual based model spatial distribution, production and biomass for Calanus finmarchicus in the Norwegian Sea

The copepod Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant species of the meso-zooplankton in the Norwegian Sea, and constitutes an important link between the phytoplankton and the higher trophic levels in the Norwegian Sea food chain. An individualbased model for C. finmarchicus, based on super-individuals and evolving traits for behaviour, stages, etc., is two-way coupled to the NORWegian ECOlogical Model system (NORWECOM). One year of modelled C. finmarchicus spatial distribution, production and biomass are found to represent observations reasonably well. High C. finmarchicus abundance is found along the Norwegian shelf-break in the early summer, while the overwintering population is found along the slope and in the deeper Norwegian Sea basins. The timing of the spring bloom is generally later than in the observations. Annual Norwegian Sea production is found to be 29 million tonnes of carbon and a production to biomass (P/B) ratio of 4.3 emerges. Sensitivity tests show that the modelling system is robust to initial values of behavioural traits and with regards to the number of super-individuals simulated given that this is above about 50,000 individuals. Experiments with the model system indicate that it provides a valuable tool for studies of ecosystem responses to causative forces such as prey density or overwintering population size. For example, introducing C. finmarchicus food limitations reduces the stock dramatically, but on the other hand, a reduced stock may rebuild in one year under normal conditions. The NetCDF file contains model grid coordinates and bottom topography.