Introduction to Discounted Cash Flow Analysis and Financial Functions in Excel

The financial and economic analysis of investment projects is typically carried out using the technique of discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. This module introduces concepts of discounting and DCF analysis for the derivation of project performance criteria such as net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and benefit to cost (B/C) ratios. These concepts and criteria are introduced with respect to a simple example, for which calculations using MicroSoft Excel are demonstrated.

Treatment of suicidal people around the world

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide; however, little information is available about the treatment of suicidal people, or about barriers to treatment. Aims To examine the receipt of mental health treatment and barriers to care among suicidal people around the world. Method Twenty-one nationally representative samples worldwide (n=55 302; age 18 years and over) from the World Health Organization`s World Mental Health Surveys were interviewed regarding past-year suicidal behaviour and past-year healthcare use. Suicidal respondents who had not used services in the past year were asked why they had not sought care. Results Two-fifths of the suicidal respondents had received treatment (from 17% in low-income countries to 56% in high-income countries), mostly from a general medical practitioner (22%), psychiatrist (15%) or non-psychiatrist (15%). Those who had actually attempted suicide were more likely to receive care. Low perceived need was the most important reason for not seeking help (58%), followed by attitudinal barriers such as the wish to handle the problem alone (40%) and structural barriers such as financial concerns (15%). Only 7% of respondents endorsed stigma as a reason for not seeking treatment. Conclusions Most people with suicide ideation, plans and attempts receive no treatment. This is a consistent and pervasive finding, especially in low-income countries. Improving the receipt of treatment worldwide will have to take into account culture-specific factors that may influence the process of help-seeking.

Microscopic origin of non-Gaussian distributions of financial returns

In this paper we study the possible microscopic origin of heavy-tailed probability density distributions for the price variation of financial instruments. We extend the standard log-normal process to include another random component in the so-called stochastic volatility models. We study these models under an assumption, akin to the Born-Oppenheimer approximation, in which the volatility has already relaxed to its equilibrium distribution and acts as a background to the evolution of the price process. In this approximation, we show that all models of stochastic volatility should exhibit a scaling relation in the time lag of zero-drift modified log-returns. We verify that the Dow-Jones Industrial Average index indeed follows this scaling. We then focus on two popular stochastic volatility models, the Heston and Hull-White models. In particular, we show that in the Hull-White model the resulting probability distribution of log-returns in this approximation corresponds to the Tsallis (t-Student) distribution. The Tsallis parameters are given in terms of the microscopic stochastic volatility model. Finally, we show that the log-returns for 30 years Dow Jones index data is well fitted by a Tsallis distribution, obtaining the relevant parameters. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Shared and Unique Gene Expression in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Depending on Disease Activity

Patients presenting with active Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) manifestations may exhibit distinct pathogenetic features in relation to inactive SLE. Also, cDNA microarrays may potentially discriminate the gene expression profile of a disease or disease variant. Therefore, we evaluated the expression profile of 4500 genes in peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL) of SLE patients. We studied 11 patients with SLE (seven with active SLE and four with inactive SLE) and eight healthy controls. Total RNA was isolated from PBL, reverse transcribed into cDNA, and postlabeled with Cy3 fluorochrome. These probes were then hybridized to a glass slide cDNA microarray containing 4500 human IMAGE cDNA target sequences. An equimolar amount of total RNA from human cell lines served as reference. The microarray images were quantified, normalized, and analyzed using the R environment (ANOVA, significant analysis of microarrays, and cluster-tree view algorithms). Disease activity was assessed by the SLE disease activity index. Compared to the healthy controls, 104 genes in active SLE patients (80 repressed and 24 induced) and 52 genes in nonactive SLE patients (31 induced and 21 repressed) were differentially expressed. The modulation of 12 genes, either induced or repressed, was found in both disease variants; however, each disease variant had differential expression of different genes. Taken together, these results indicate that the two lupus variants studied have common and unique differentially expressed genes. Although the biological significance of the differentially expressed genes discussed above has not been completely understood, they may serve as a platform to further explore the molecular basis of immune deregulation in SLE.