Cálculo do Value at Risk (VaR) para o Ibovespa, pós crise de 2008, por meio dos modelos de heterocedasticidade condicional (GARCH) e de volatilidade estocástica (Local Scale Model - LSM)

O objetivo deste estudo é propor a implementação de um modelo estatístico para cálculo da volatilidade, não difundido na literatura brasileira, o modelo de escala local (LSM), apresentando suas vantagens e desvantagens em relação aos modelos habitualmente utilizados para mensuração de risco. Para estimação dos parâmetros serão usadas as cotações diárias do Ibovespa, no período de janeiro de 2009 a dezembro de 2014, e para a aferição da acurácia empírica dos modelos serão realizados testes fora da amostra, comparando os VaR obtidos para o período de janeiro a dezembro de 2014. Foram introduzidas variáveis explicativas na tentativa de aprimorar os modelos e optou-se pelo correspondente americano do Ibovespa, o índice Dow Jones, por ter apresentado propriedades como: alta correlação, causalidade no sentido de Granger, e razão de log-verossimilhança significativa. Uma das inovações do modelo de escala local é não utilizar diretamente a variância, mas sim a sua recíproca, chamada de “precisão” da série, que segue uma espécie de passeio aleatório multiplicativo. O LSM captou todos os fatos estilizados das séries financeiras, e os resultados foram favoráveis a sua utilização, logo, o modelo torna-se uma alternativa de especificação eficiente e parcimoniosa para estimar e prever volatilidade, na medida em que possui apenas um parâmetro a ser estimado, o que representa uma mudança de paradigma em relação aos modelos de heterocedasticidade condicional.

Toward a venture capital-backed entrepreneurship model in Brazil

It is well documented venture capital‟s positive impact on creation and development of highly successful innovative companies worldwide. Venture capital not only provides funding to startups and SMEs (small and medium enterprises) that usually have financing gap, especially in emerging markets, but also brings a whole package of valuable resources that reduces companies‟ mortality rates. Using quantitative data obtained from an empirical survey as background, this paper discusses the role of venture capital in the success of innovative startups and SMEs, and it examines if, and to what extent, venture capitalists are supporting the entrepreneurial activity in Brazil. I focused on the portfolio companies analyzes and confirmed the hypothesis that the venture capital industry has been supporting entrepreneurship in Brazil. Second, I identified an important evidence of a venture capital‟s positive impact on economic activity, especially the capital market. Third, it became clear that venture capital-back entrepreneurship is highly concentrated in the Southeast region. And fourth, I identified that private equity expansion is also playing a key role on that dynamics. As consequence, I conclude that the venture capital (and private equity) industry has been very important to build an enormously dynamic and strong local entrepreneurial economy. Its committed capital grew 50% per year between 2005 and 2008 to achieve US$27 billion, which invested US$ 11 billion, which employs 1,400 professionals (75% with post-graduate degrees) and maintains 482 portfolio companies, mostly SMEs. In addition, venture capital-backed companies represented one third of the IPOs that occurred in Brazil between 2004 and 2008 (approximately US$15 billion).

Assessing interdependence among countries' fundamentals and its implications for exchange rate misalignment estimates: An empirical exercise based on GVAR

Exchange rates are important macroeconomic prices and changes in these rates a ect economic activity, prices, interest rates, and trade ows. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that the global vector autoregressions model (GVAR) proposed by Pesaran and co-authors can add relevant information to the literature on measuring exchange rate misalignment. Our empirical exercise suggests that the estimate exchange rate misalignment obtained from GVAR can be quite di erent to that using the traditional cointegrated time series techniques, which treat countries as detached entities. The di erences between the two approaches are more pronounced for small and developing countries. Our results also suggest a strong interdependence among eurozone countries, as expected

Does mixed frequency vector error correction model add relevant information to exchange misalignment calculus? Evidence for United States

Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and a ects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investiments ows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that it is possible to calculate the misalignment from a mixed ointegrated vector error correction framework. An empirical exercise using United States' real exchange rate data is performed. The results suggest that the model with mixed frequency data is preferred to the models with same frequency variables

Sanitation and health: empirical evidence for Brazilian municipalities

The relationship between sanitation policies (access and quality) and health in Brazilian municipalities was estimated from 2003 to 2010 using a panel data model with corrections for missing data. The results suggest a limited effect of sanitation policy on health. Compared with results from the literature, we found that the worsening quality of water appears to be associated with increased rates of mortality and hospitalization for children up to one month of age. Improvements in sewage sanitation have reduced the mortality and morbidity rates in children aged one to four. Improved access to piped water is associated with decreased hospitalization related to dysentery and acute respiratory infections (ARI) and does not have an effect on child mortality. Finally, epidemiological transition is only supported by weak evidence, including a more intense effect of reduced access to sanitation in municipalities with the worst mortality and morbidity indicators. In most models, this theory has been rejected

Invariant tests in an instrumental variables model with unknown data generating process

In this work we focus on tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in a weakly identi ed instrumental variable regressionmodel. We propose a new unbiasedness restriction for weighted average power (WAP) tests introduced by Moreira and Moreira (2013). This new boundary condition is motivated by the score e ciency under strong identi cation. It allows reducing computational costs of WAP tests by replacing the strongly unbiased condition. This latter restriction imposes, under the null hypothesis, the test to be uncorrelated to a given statistic with dimension given by the number of instruments. The new proposed boundary condition only imposes the test to be uncorrelated to a linear combination of the statistic. WAP tests under both restrictions to perform similarly numerically. We apply the di erent tests discussed to an empirical example. Using data from Yogo (2004), we assess the e ect of weak instruments on the estimation of the elasticity of inter-temporal substitution of a CCAPM model.

Human resource policies in public education: empirical evidences for Brazil

Esta tese traz três exercícios empíricos sobre questões de recursos humanos em escolas públicas brasileiras, aproveitando-se de uma ampla política implantada na rede estadual de São Paulo. Esta política aumenta os salários para os professores que trabalham em escolas urbanas pobres e sua regra de alocação, baseada em um corte arbitrário em um índice socioeconômico, permite a identificação de impactos causais. Em resumo, os três artigos apontam que políticas de subsídios são capazes de, de fato, manter professores nas escolas mais pobres e este efeito, por sua vez, melhora o desempenho acadêmico dos alunos. Além disso, concluímos também que esta política também reduz o absenteísmo dos professores. No entanto, como consequência do desenho dessa política, não há evidências de que o subsídio melhora o perfil dos professores alocados nessas escolas. O primeiro artigo avalia os impactos dessa política sobre a rotatividade dos professores. Concluímos que a compensação salarial reduziu a taxa de rotatividade em 7,2 pontos percentuais, o que significa uma queda de 15% sobre a média pré-tratamento. Em um modelo em forma reduzida, encontramos também evidências de que esta política pode impactar positivamente o desempenho dos alunos. O segundo artigo analisa os impactos sobre a aprendizagem dos alunos, com foco em três possíveis mecanismos: i) a rotatividade; ii) a qualidade dos professores; iii) o aumento do salário. As estimativas mostram que o único canal através do qual esta política compensatória afeta o desempenho dos alunos é a redução da rotatividade dos professores. Ao reduzir taxa de volume de negócios em um desvio-padrão, a política reduziu a proporção de alunos de baixo desempenho em cerca de meio desvio-padrão. O terceiro artigo avalia como a diferenciação salarial criada por esta política afeta absenteísmo dos professores. Os resultados mostram que, após controlar efeitos fixos de professores e escolas, pagar um salário mais elevado (em média 26% a mais) provoca uma queda de 8-22% nas faltas dos professores. Ausências que não levam a desconto de salário, como por licenças médicas, não respondem à diferenciação salarial e o impacto é maior para os professores que recebem maior incentivo.

Teamwork in academia: an empirical study

The Bologna Process introduced some changes in the curriculum of higher education institutions (HEIs) and defined that academic learning should consider the needs of the labour market. HEIs and employers agree that personal skills are the most important set of competence of graduates (Pavlin, Akkuyunlu, Kovacic, & Svetlik, 2009). The goals of this work were to explore how the work experienced by teams of students in HEIs might help them improve their personal skills, namely empirically explore the perception of teamwork and personality into two groups of students. The study was based on the theoretical model of Team Evolution and Maturation (TEAM, Fransen, 2012). The sample consisted of 99 students of the 3rd year of the degree (1st cycle) in Computer Science (49 students) and the 2nd year of the Bachelor's Degree (1st cycle) in Psychology (50 students), from the University of Madeira, Portugal. Areas of personality and team collaboration were evaluated with a Pre- and Post-test. Findings show that the perception of the teamwork collaboration of students in Computer Science and Psychology majors seems to be influenced by their scientific area, by gender, by the selection method of the time-organiser, the self-perceived personality of the time-organiser, the self perceived personality of the non-time-organiser, and the size of the team. It is expected that this data will contribute to further theoretical and practical reflection on the teamwork among college students and their performance in the labour market.

Strutural and optical approach of CdS@ZnS core-shell system

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Comparison between the complete Bayesian method and empirical Bayesian method for ARCH models using Brazilian financial time series

In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.

The energy landscape for solvent dynamics in electron transfer reactions: A minimalist model

Energy fluctuations of a solute molecule embedded in a polar solvent are investigated to depict the energy landscape for solvation dynamics. The system is modeled by a charged molecule surrounded by two layers of solvent dipolar molecules with simple rotational dynamics. Individual solvent molecules are treated as simple dipoles that can point toward or away from the central charge (Ising spins). Single-spin-flip Monte Carlo kinetics simulations are carried out in a two-dimensional lattice for different central charges, radii of outer shell, and temperatures. By analyzing the density of states as a function of energy and temperatures, we have determined the existence of multiple freezing transitions. Each of them can be associated with the freezing of a different layer of the solvent. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Model for electrodes' filaments of hot cathode fluorescent lamps, during preheating with constant rms current

This paper presents a new model for the representation of electrodes' filaments of hot-cathode fluorescent lamps, during preheating processes based on the injection of currents with constant root mean square (rms) values. The main improvement obtained with this model is the prediction of the R-h/R-c ratio during the preheating process, as a function of the preheating time and of the rms current injected in the electrodes. Using the proposed model, it is possible to obtain an estimate of the time interval and the current that should be provided by the electronic ballast, in order to ensure a suitable preheating process. is estimate of time and current can be used as input data in the design of electronic ballasts with programmed lamp start, permitting the prediction of the R-h/R-c ratio during the initial steps of the design (theoretical analysis and digital simulation). Therefore, the use of the proposed model permits to reduce the necessity of several empirical adjustments in the prototype, in order to set the operation of electronic ballasts during the preheating process. This fact reduces time and costs associated to the global design procedure of electronic ballasts.

Quantitative estimates of time-averaging in terebratulid brachiopod shell accumulations from a modern tropical shelf

Quantitative estimates of time-averaging in marine shell accumulations available to date are limited primarily to aragonitic mollusk shells. We assessed time-averaging in Holocene assemblages of calcitic brachiopod shells by direct dating of individual specimens of the terebratulid brachiopod Bouchardia rosea. The data were collected from exceptional (brachiopod-rich) shell assemblages, occurring surficially on a tropical mixed carbonate-siliciclastic shelf (the Southeast Brazilian Bight, SW Atlantic), a setting that provides a good climatic and environmental analog for many Paleozoic brachiopod shell beds of North America and Europe. A total of 82 individual brachiopod shells, collected from four shallow (5-25 m) nearshore (<2.5 km from the shore) localities, were dated by using amino acid racemization (D-alloisoleucine/L-isoleucine value) calibrated with five AMS-radiocarbon dates (r(2) = 0.933). This is the first study to demonstrate that amino acid racemization methods can provide accurate and precise ages for individual shells of calcitic brachiopods.The dated shells vary in age from modern to 3000 years, with a standard deviation of 690 years. The age distribution is strongly right-skewed: the young shells dominate the dated specimens and older shells are increasingly less common. However, the four localities display significant differences in the range of time-averaging and the form of the age distribution. The dated shells vary notably in the quality of preservation, but there is no significant correlation between taphonomic condition and age, either for individual shells or at assemblage level.These results demonstrate that fossil brachiopods may show considerable time-averaging, but the scale and nature of that mixing may vary greatly among sites. Moreover, taphonomic condition is not a reliable indicator of pre-burial history of individual brachiopod shells or the scale of temporal mixing within the entire assemblage. The results obtained for brachiopods are strikingly similar to results previously documented for mollusks and suggest that differences in mineralogy and shell microstructure are unlikely to be the primary factors controlling the nature and scale of time-averaging. Environmental factors and local fluctuations in populations of shell-producing organisms are more likely to be the principal determinants of time-averaging in marine benthic shelly assemblages. The long-term survival of brachiopod shells is incongruent with the rapid shell destruction observed in taphonomic experiments. The results support the taphonomic model that shells remain protected below (but perhaps near) the surface through their early taphonomic history. They may be brought back up to the surface intermittently by bioturbation and physical reworking, but only for short periods of time. This model explains the striking similarities in time-averaging among different types of organisms and the lack of correlation between time-since-death and shell taphonomy.

Observed supersymmetry in baryon and meson spectra with IBFM, the interacting Boson-fermion model

Supersymmetry is already observed in (i) nuclear physics where the same empirical formula based on a graded Lie group described even-even and odd-even nuclear spectra and (ii) in Nambu-BCS theory where there is a simple relationship between the energy gap of the basic fermion and the bosonic collective modes. We now suggest similar relationships between the large number of mesonic and baryonic excitations based on the SU(3) substructure in the U(15/30) graded Lie group.

Radiative corrections for the gauged Thirring model in causal perturbation theory

We evaluate the one-loop fermion self-energy for the gauged Thirring model in (2+1) dimensions. with one massive fermion flavor. We do this in the framework of the causal perturbation theory. In contrast to QED3, the corresponding two-point function turns out to be infrared finite on the mass shell. Then, by means of a Ward identity, we derive the on-shell vertex correction and discuss the role played by causality for non-renormalizable theories.