Dynamic adverse selection and debt

This paper argues that the strategic use of debt favours the revelationof information in dynamic adverse selection problems. Our argument is basedon the idea that debt is a credible commitment to end long term relationships.Consequently, debt encourages a privately informed party to disclose itsinformation at early stages of a relationship. We illustrate our pointwith the financing decision of a monopolist selling a good to a buyerwhose valuation is private information. A high level of (renegotiable)debt, by increasing the scope for liquidation, may induce the highvaluation buyer to buy early at a high price and thus increase themonopolist's expected payoff. By affecting the buyer's strategy, it mayreduce the probability of excessive liquidation. We investigate theconsequences of good durability and we examine the way debt mayalleviate the ratchet effect.

Endogenous policy leads to inefficient risk sharing

We analyze risk sharing and fiscal spending in a two-region model withcomplete markets. Fiscal policy determines tax rates for each state ofnature. When fiscal policy is decentralized, it can be used to affect prices of securities. To manipulate prices to their beneffit, regionschoose pro-cyclical fiscal spending. This leads to incomplete risk sharing,despite the existence of complete markets and the absence of aggregaterisk. When a fiscal union centralizes fiscal policy, securities pricescan no longer be manipulated and complete risk sharing ensues. If regionsare homogeneous, median income residents of both regions prefer the fiscalunion. If they are heterogeneous, the median resident of the rich regionprefers the decentralized setting.

Wealth, financial intermediation and growth

This paper presents empirical support for the existence of wealth effects in the contribution of financial intermediation to economic growth, and offers a theoretical explanation for these effects. Using GMM dynamic panel data techniques applied to study the growth-promoting effects of financial intermediation, we show that the exogenous contribution of financial development on economic growth has different effects for different levels of income per capita. We find that this contribution is generally increasing with thelevel of income per capita of the economy, up to a relatively high level of income. This contribution is consistently lower for poor countries; and for some low levels of income per capita it can be negative. We provide a model to account for these wealth effects. The model is a overlapping generations growth model where financial intermediaries implement liquidity risk sharing among depositors. We show that at early stages of economic development, a bank can increase welfare of its depositors only at the cost of lowering investment and growth. However, once the economy has crossed certain wealth threshold, the liquidity role of banks becomes unambiguously growth enhancing. As wealth increases, banks offer improving liquidity insurance, and higher growth; however, for high levels of wealth, growth generated byfinancial intermediation declines as the economy attains the optimal level of consumption risk sharing.

Dynamic graphics of parametrically linked multivariate methods used in compositional data analysis

Many multivariate methods that are apparently distinct can be linked by introducing oneor more parameters in their definition. Methods that can be linked in this way arecorrespondence analysis, unweighted or weighted logratio analysis (the latter alsoknown as "spectral mapping"), nonsymmetric correspondence analysis, principalcomponent analysis (with and without logarithmic transformation of the data) andmultidimensional scaling. In this presentation I will show how several of thesemethods, which are frequently used in compositional data analysis, may be linkedthrough parametrizations such as power transformations, linear transformations andconvex linear combinations. Since the methods of interest here all lead to visual mapsof data, a "movie" can be made where where the linking parameter is allowed to vary insmall steps: the results are recalculated "frame by frame" and one can see the smoothchange from one method to another. Several of these "movies" will be shown, giving adeeper insight into the similarities and differences between these methods.

Dynamic higher order expectations

In models where privately informed agents interact, agents may need to formhigher order expectations, i.e. expectations of other agents' expectations. This paper develops a tractable framework for solving and analyzing linear dynamic rational expectationsmodels in which privately informed agents form higher order expectations. The frameworkis used to demonstrate that the well-known problem of the infinite regress of expectationsidentified by Townsend (1983) can be approximated to an arbitrary accuracy with a finitedimensional representation under quite general conditions. The paper is constructive andpresents a fixed point algorithm for finding an accurate solution and provides weak conditions that ensure that a fixed point exists. To help intuition, Singleton's (1987) asset pricingmodel with disparately informed traders is used as a vehicle for the paper.

Geometry, petrology and growth of a shallow crustal laccolith : the Torres del Paine Mafic Complex (Patagonia)

1. ABSTRACTS - RÉSUMÉSSCIENTIFIC ABSTRACT - ENGLISH VERSIONGeometry, petrology and growth of a shallow crustal laccolith: the Torres del Paine Mafi c Complex (Patagonia)The Torres del Paine intrusive complex (TPIC) is a composite mafic-granitic intrusion, ~70km2, belonging to a chain of isolated Miocene plutons in southern Patagonia. Their position is intermediate between the Mesozoic-Cenozoic calc-alkaline subduction related Patagonian batholith in the West and the late Cenozoic alkaline basaltic back-arc related plateau lavas in the East. The Torres del Paine complex formed during an important reconfiguration of the Patagonian geodynamic setting, with a migration of magmatism from the arc to the back-arc, possibly related to the Chile ridge subductionThe complex intruded the flysch of the Cretaceous Cerro Toro and Punta Barrosa Formations during the Miocene, creating a well-defined narrow contact aureole of 200-400 m width.In its eastern part, the Torres del Paine intrusive complex is a laccolith, composed of a succession of hornblende-gabbro to diorite sills at its base, with a total thickness of ~250m, showing brittle contacts with the overlying granitic sills, that form spectacular cliffs of more than 1000m. This laccolith is connected, in the western part, to its feeding system, with vertical alternating sheets of layered gabbronorite and Hbl-gabbro, surrounded and percolated by diorites. ID-TIMS U-Pb on zircons on feeder zone (FZ) gab- bros yield 12.593±0.009Ma and 12.587±0.009Ma, which is identifcal within error to the oldest granite dated so far by Michel et al. (2008). In contrast, the laccolith mafic complex is younger than than the youngest granite (12.50±0.02Ma), and has been emplaced from 12.472±0.009Ma to 12.431 ±0.006Ma, by under-accretion beneath the youngest granite at the interface with previously emplaced mafic sills.The gabbronorite crystallization sequence in the feeder zone is dominated by olivine, plagioclase, clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene, while amphibole forms late interstitial crystals. The crystallization sequence is identical in Hornblende-gabbro from the feeder zone, with higher modal hornblende. Gabbronorite and Hornblende-gabbro both display distinct Eu and Sr positive anomalies. In the laccolith, a lower Hornblende-gabbro crystallized in sills and evolved to a high alkali shoshonitic series. The Al203, Ti02, Na20, K20, Ba and Sr composition of these gabbros is highly variable and increases up to ~50wt% Si02. The lower hornblende-gabbro is characterized by kaersutite anhedral cores with inclusions of olivine, clino- and orthopyroxene and rare apatite and An70 plagioclase. Trace element modelling indicates that hornblende and clinopyroxene are in equilibrium with a liquid whose composition is similar to late basaltic trachyandesitic dikes that cut the complex. The matrix in the lower hornblende gabbro is composed of normally zoned oligoclase, Magnesio-hornblende, biotite, ilmenite and rare quartz and potassium feldspar. This assemblage crystallized in-situ from a Ba and Sr-depleted melts. In contrast, the upper Hbl-gabbro is high-K calc-alkaline. Poikilitic pargasite cores have inclusions of euhedral An70 plagioclase inclusions, and contain occasionally clinopyroxene, olivine and orthopyroxene. The matrix composition is identical to the lower hornblende-gabbro and similar to the diorite. Diorite bulk rock compositions show the same mineralogy but different modal proportions relative to hornblende-gabbrosThe Torres del Paine Intrusive Complex isotopic composition is 87Sr/86Sr=0.704, 143Nd/144Nd=0.5127, 206Pb/204Pb=18.70 and 207Pb/204Pb=15.65. Differentiated dioritic and granitic units may be linked to the gabbroic cumulates series, with 20-50% trapped interstitial melt, through fractionation of olivine-bearing gabbronorite or hornblende-gabbro fractionation The relative homogeneity of the isotopic compositions indicate that only small amounts of assimilation occurred. Two-pyroxenes thermometry, clinopyroxene barometry and amphibole-plagioclase thermometry was used to estimate pressure and temperature conditions. The early fractionation of ultramafic cumulates occurs at mid to lower crustal conditions, at temperatures exceeding 900°C. In contrast, the TPIC emplacement conditions have been estimated to ~0.7±0.5kbar and 790±60°C.Based on field and microtextural observations and geochemical modelling, fractionation of basaltic-trachyandesitic liquids at intermediate to lower crustal levels, has led to the formation of the Torres del Paine granites. Repetitive replenishment of basaltic trachy- andesitic liquid in crustal reservoirs led to mixed magmas that will ascend via the feeder zone, and crystallize into a laccolith, in the form of successive dioritic and gabbroic sills. Dynamic fractionation during emplacement concentrated hornblende rich cumulates in the center of individual sills. Variable degrees.of post-emplacement compaction led to the expulsion of felsic liquids that preferentially concentrated at the top of the sills. Incremental sills amalgamation of the entire Torres del Paine Intrusive Complex has lasted for ~160ka.RESUME SCIENTIFIQUE - VERSION FRANÇAISEGéométrie, pétrologie et croissance d'un laccolite peu profond : Le complexe ma- fique du Torres del Paine (Patagonie)Le Complexe Intrusif du Torres del Paine (CITP) est une intrusion bimodale, d'environ 70km2, appartenant à une chaîne de plutons Miocènes isolés, dans le sud de la Patago-nie. Leur position est intermédiaire entre le batholite patagonien calco-alcalin, à l'Ouest, mis en place au Mesozoïque-Cenozoïque dans un contexte de subduction, et les basal-tes andésitiques et trachybasaltes alcalins de plateau, plus jeune, à l'Est, lié à l'ouverture d'un arrière-arc.A son extrémité Est, le CITP est une succession de sills de gabbro à Hbl et de diorite, sur une épaisseur de ~250m, avec des évidences de mélange. Les contacts avec les sills de granite au-dessus, formant des parois de plus de 1000m, sont cassants. Ce laccolite est connecté, dans sa partie Ouest, à une zone d'alimentation, avec des intrusions sub-ver- ticales de gabbronorite litée et de gabbro à Hbl, en alternance. Celles-ci sont traversées et entourées par des diorites. Les zircons des gabbros de la zone d'alimentation, datés par ID-TIMS, ont cristallisés à 12.593±0.009Ma et 12.587±0.009Ma, ce qui correspond au plus vieux granite daté à ce jour par Michel et al. (2008). A l'inverse, les roches manques du laccolite se sont mises en place entre 12.472±0.009Ma et 12.431 ±0.006Ma, par sous-plaquage successifs à l'interface avec le granite le plus jeune daté à ce jour (12.50±0.02Ma).La séquence de cristallisation des gabbronorites est dominée par Ol, Plg, Cpx et Opx, alors que la Hbl est un cristal interstitiel. Elle est identique dans les gabbros à Hbl de la zone d'alimentation, avec ~30%vol de Hbl. Les gabbros de la zone d'alimentation montrent des anomalies positives en Eu et Sr distinctes. Dans le laccolite, le gabbro à Hbl inférieur évolue le long d'une série shoshonitique, riche en éléments incompatibles. Sa concentration en Al203, Ti02, Na20, K20, Ba et Sr est très variable et augmente rapide-ment jusqu'à ~50wt% Si02. Il est caractérisé par la présence de coeurs résorbés de kaer- sutite, entourés de Bt, et contenant des inclusions d'OI, Cpx et Opx, ou alors d'Ap et de rares Plg (An70). Hbl et Cpx ont cristallisés à partir d'un liquide de composition similaire aux dykes trachy-andesite basaltique du CITP. La matrice, cristallisée in-situ à partir d'un liquide pauvre en Ba et Sr, est composée d'oligoclase zoné de façon simple, de Mg-Hbl, Bt, llm ainsi que de rares Qtz et KF. Le gabbro à Hbl supérieur, quant à lui, appartient à une suite chimique calco-alcaline riche en K. Des coeurs poecilitiques de pargasite con-tiennent de nombreuses inclusions de Plg (An70) automorphe, ainsi que des Ol, Cpx et Opx. La composition de la matrice est identique à celle des gabbros à Hbl inférieurs et toutes deux sont similaires à la minéralogie des diorites. Les analyses sur roches totales de diorites montrent la même variabilité que celles de gabbros à Hbl, mais avec une ten-eur en Si02 plus élevée.La composition isotopique des liquides primitifs du CITP a été mesurée à 87Sr/86Sr=0.704, 143Nd/144Nd=0.5127, 206Pb/204Pb=18.70 et 207Pb/204Pb=15.65. Les granites et diorites différenciés peuvent être reliés à des cumulais gabbronoritiques (F=0.74 pour les granites et F=1-0.5 pour les diorites) et gabbroïques à Hbl (fractionnement supplémentaire pour les granites, avec F=0.3). La cristallisation de 20 à 50%vol de liquide interstitiel piégé dans les gabbros du CITP explique leur signature géochimique. Seules de faibles quantités de croûte continentale ont été assimilées. La température et la pression de fractionnement ont été estimées, sur la base des thermobaromètres Opx-Cpx, Hbl-Plg et Cpx, à plus de 900°C et une profondeur correspondant à la croûte inférieure-moyenne. A l'inverse, les conditions de cristallisation de la matrice des gabbros et diorites du laccolite ont été estimées à 790±60°C et ~0.7±0.5kbar.Je propose que les liquides felsiques du CITP se soient formés par cristallisation frac-tionnée en profondeur des assemblages minéralogiques observés dans les gabbros du CITP, à partir d'un liquide trachy-andesite basaltique. La percolation de magma dans les cristaux accumulés permet la remontée du mélange à travers la zone d'alimentation, vers le laccolite, où des sills se mettent en place successivement. L'amalgamation de sills dans le CITP a duré ~160ka.Le CITP s'est formé durant une reconfiguration importante du contexte géodynamique en Patagonie, avec un changement du magmatisme d'arc vers un volcanisme d'arrière- arc. Ce changement est certainement lié à la subduction de la ride du Chili.RESUME GRAND PUBLIC - VERSION FRANÇAISEGéométrie, pétrologie et croissance d'une chambre magmatique peu profonde : Le complexe mafique du Torres del Paine (Patagonie)Le pourtour de l'Océan Pacifique est caractérisé par une zone de convergence de plaques tectoniques, appelée zone de subduction, avec le plongement de croûte océa-nique sous les Andes dans le cas de la Patagonie. De nombreux volcans y sont associés, formant la ceinture de feu. Mais seuls quelques pourcents de tout le magma traversant la croûte terrestre parviennent à la surface et la majeure partie cristallise en profondeur, dans des chambres magmatiques. Quelles est leur forme, croissance, cristallisation et durée de vie ? Le complexe magmatique du Torres del Paine représente l'un des meilleurs endroits au monde pour répondre à ces questions. Il se situe au sud de la Patagonie, formant un massif de 70km2. Des réponses peuvent être trouvées à différentes échelles, variant de la montagne à des minéraux de quelques 1000ème de millimètres.Il est possible de distinguer trois types de roches : des gabbros et des diorites sur une épaisseur de 250m, surmontées par des parois de granite de plus de 1000m. Les contacts entre ces roches sont tous horizontaux. Entre granites et gabbro-diorite, le contact est net, indiquant que le second magma s'est mis en place au contact avec un magma plus ancien, totalement solidifié. Entre gabbros et diorites, les contacts sont diffus, souvent non-linéaires, indiquant à l'inverse la mise en contact de magmas encore partiellement liquides. Dans la partie Ouest de cette chambre magmatique, les contacts entre roches sont verticaux. Il s'agit certainement du lieu de remplissage de la chambre magmatique.Lors du refroidissement d'un magma, différents cristaux vont se former. Leur stabilité et leur composition varient en fonction de la pression, de la température ou de la chimie du magma. La séquence de cristallisation peut être définie sur la base d'observations microscopiques et de la composition chimique des minéraux. Différents gabbros sont ainsi distingués : le gabbro à la base est riche en hornblende, d'une taille de ~5mm, sans inclusion de plagioclase mais avec des cristaux d'olivine, clinopyroxene et orthopyroxene inclus ; le gabbro supérieur est lui-aussi riche en hornblende (~5mm), avec les mêmes inclusions additionnées de plagioclase. Ces cristaux se sont formés à une température supérieure à 900°C et une profondeur correspondant à la croûte moyenne ou inférieure. Les minéraux plus fin, se trouvant hors des cristaux de hornblende des deux gabbros, sont similaires à ceux des diorites : plagioclase, biotite, hornblende, apatite, quartz et feldspath alcalin. Ces minéraux sont caractéristiques des granites. Ils ont cristallisé à ~790°C et ~2km de profondeur.La cristallisation des minéraux et leur extraction du magma par gravité provoque un changement progressif de la composition de ce dernier. Ainsi, après extraction d'olivine et d'orthopyroxene riches en Mg, de clinopyroxene riche en Ca, de plagioclase riche en Ca et Al et d'hornblende riche en Ca, Al et Mg, le liquide final sera appauvri en ces élé-ments. Un lien peut ainsi être proposé entre les diorites dont la composition est proche du liquide de départ, les granites dont la composition est similaire au liquide final, et les gabbros dont la minéralogie correspond aux minéraux extraits.L'utilisation de zircons, un minéral riche en U dont les atomes se transforment en Pb par décomposition radioactive au cours de millions d'années, permet de dater le refroidissement des roches qui les contiennent. Ainsi, il a été observé que les roches de la zone d'alimentation, à l'Ouest du complexe magmatique, ont cristallisés il y a 12.59±0.01 Ma, en même temps que les granites les plus vieux, se trouvant au sommet de la chambre magmatique, datés par Michel et al. (2008). Les deux roches pourraient donc avoir la même origine. A l'inverse, les gabbros et diorites de la chambre magmatique ont cristallisé entre 12.47±0.01Ma et 12.43±0.01Ma, les roches les plus vieilles étant à la base.En comparant la composition des roches du Torres del Paine avec celles d'autres en-tités géologiques de Patagonie, les causes du magmatisme peuvent être recherchées. A l'Ouest, on trouve en effet des intrusions granitiques, plus anciennes, caractéristiques de zones de convergence de plaque tectonique, alors qu'à l'Est, des laves basaltiques plus jeunes sont caractéristiques d'une dynamique d'extension. Sur la base des compositions chimiques des roches de ces différentes entités, l'évolution progressive de l'une à l'autre a pu être démontrée. Elle est certainement due à l'arrivée d'une dorsale océanique (zone d'extension crustale et de création de croûte océanique par la remontée de magma) dans la zone de subduction, le long des Andes.Je propose que, dans un premier temps, des magmas granitiques sont remontés dans la chambre magmatique, laissant d'importants volumes de cristaux dans la croûte pro-fonde. Dans un second épisode, les cristaux formés en profondeur ont été transportés à travers la croûte continentale, suite au mélange avec un nouveau magma injecté. Ces magmas chargés de cristaux ont traversé la zone d'alimentation avant de s'injecter dans la chambre magmatique. Différents puises ont été distingués, injectés dans la chambre magmatique du sommet à la base concernant les granites, puis à la base du granite le plus jeune pour les gabbros et diorites. Le complexe magmatique du Torres del Paine s'est construit sur une période totale de 160'000±20'000 ans.

Emergence of Cooperation on Static and Dynamic Networks

Game theory is a branch of applied mathematics used to analyze situation where two or more agents are interacting. Originally it was developed as a model for conflicts and collaborations between rational and intelligent individuals. Now it finds applications in social sciences, eco- nomics, biology (particularly evolutionary biology and ecology), engineering, political science, international relations, computer science, and philosophy. Networks are an abstract representation of interactions, dependencies or relationships. Net- works are extensively used in all the fields mentioned above and in many more. Many useful informations about a system can be discovered by analyzing the current state of a network representation of such system. In this work we will apply some of the methods of game theory to populations of agents that are interconnected. A population is in fact represented by a network of players where one can only interact with another if there is a connection between them. In the first part of this work we will show that the structure of the underlying network has a strong influence on the strategies that the players will decide to adopt to maximize their utility. We will then introduce a supplementary degree of freedom by allowing the structure of the population to be modified along the simulations. This modification allows the players to modify the structure of their environment to optimize the utility that they can obtain.

Dynamic optimal law enforcement with learning

We incorporate the process of enforcement learning by assuming that the agency's current marginal cost is a decreasing function of its past experience of detecting and convicting. The agency accumulates data and information (on criminals, on opportunities of crime) enhancing the ability to apprehend in the future at a lower marginal cost.We focus on the impact of enforcement learning on optimal stationary compliance rules. In particular, we show that the optimal stationary fine could be less-than-maximal and the optimal stationary probability of detection could be higher-than-otherwise.

Mating triggers dynamic immune regulations in wood ant queens.

Mating can affect female immunity in multiple ways. On the one hand, the immune system may be activated by pathogens transmitted during mating, sperm and seminal proteins, or wounds inflicted by males. On the other hand, immune defences may also be down-regulated to reallocate resources to reproduction. Ants are interesting models to study post-mating immune regulation because queens mate early in life, store sperm for many years, and use it until their death many years later, while males typically die after mating. This long-term commitment between queens and their mates limits the opportunity for sexual conflict but raises the new constraint of long-term sperm survival. In this study, we examine experimentally the effect of mating on immunity in wood ant queens. Specifically, we compared the phenoloxidase and antibacterial activities of mated and virgin Formica paralugubris queens. Queens had reduced levels of active phenoloxidase after mating, but elevated antibacterial activity 7 days after mating. These results indicate that the process of mating, dealation and ovary activation triggers dynamic patterns of immune regulation in ant queens that probably reflect functional responses to mating and pathogen exposure that are independent of sexual conflict.

Insurance with frequent trading

This paper looks at the dynamic management of risk in an economy with discrete time consumption and endowments and continuous trading. I study how agents in such an economy deal with all the risk in the economy and attain their Pareto optimal allocations by trading in a few natural securities: private insurance contracts and a common set of derivatives on the aggregate endowment. The parsimonious nature ofthe implied securities needed for Pareto optimality suggests that insuch contexts complete markets is a very reasonable assumption.

Therapist interventions using the Psychodynamic Interventions Rating Scale (PIRS) in dynamic therapy, psychoanalysis and CBT.

Abstract One requirement for psychotherapy research is an accurate assessment of therapeutic interventions across studies. This study compared frequency and depth of therapist interventions from a dynamic perspective across four studies, conducted in four countries, including three treatment arms of psychodynamic psychotherapy, and one each of psychoanalysis and CBT. All studies used the Psychodynamic Intervention Rating Scales (PIRS) to identify 10 interventions from transcribed whole sessions early and later in treatment. The PIRS adequately categorized all interventions, except in CBT (only 91-93% categorized). As hypothesized, interpretations were present in all dynamic therapies and relatively absent in CBT. Proportions of interpretations increased over time. Defense interpretations were more common than transference interpretations, which were most prevalent in psychoanalysis. Depth of interpretations also increased over time. These data can serve as norms for measuring where on the supportive-interpretive continuum a dynamic treatment lies, as well as identify potentially mutative interventions for further process and outcome study.

Mosquito community composition in dynamic landscapes from the Atlantic Forest biome (Diptera, Culicidae)

Mosquito community composition in dynamic landscapes from the Atlantic Forest biome (Diptera, Culicidae). Considering that some species of Culicidae are vectors of pathogens, both the knowledge of the diversity of the mosquito fauna and how some environment factors influence in it, are important subjects. In order to address the composition of Culicidae species in a forest reserve in southern Atlantic Forest, we compared biotic and abiotic environmental determinants and how they were associated with the occurrence of species between sunset and sunrise. The level of conservation of the area was also considered. The investigation was carried out at Reserva Natural do Morro da Mina, in Antonina, state of Paraná, Brazil. We performed sixteen mosquito collections employing Shannon traps at three-hour intervals, from July 2008 to June 2009. The characterization of the area was determined using ecological indices of diversity, evenness, dominance and similarity. We compared the frequency of specimens with abiotic variables, i.e., temperature, relative humidity and pluviosity. Seven thousand four hundred ten mosquito females were captured. They belong to 48 species of 12 genera. The most abundant genera were Anopheles, Culex, Coquillettidia, Aedes and Runchomyia. Among the species, the most abundant was Anopheles cruzii, the primary vector of Plasmodium spp. in the Atlantic Forest. Results of the analyses showed that the abiotic variables we tested did not influence the occurrence of species, although certain values suggested that there was an optimum range for the occurrence of culicid species. It was possible to detect the presence of species of Culicidae with different epidemiologic profiles and habitat preference.

A dynamic analysis of human welfare in a warming planet

Climate science indicates that climate stabilization requires low GHG emissions. Is thisconsistent with nondecreasing human welfare?Our welfare or utility index emphasizes education, knowledge, and the environment. Weconstruct and calibrate a multigenerational model with intertemporal links provided by education,physical capital, knowledge and the environment.We reject discounted utilitarianism and adopt, first, the Pure Sustainability Optimization (orIntergenerational Maximin) criterion, and, second, the Sustainable Growth Optimization criterion,that maximizes the utility of the first generation subject to a given future rate of growth. We applythese criteria to our calibrated model via a novel algorithm inspired by the turnpike property.The computed paths yield levels of utility higher than the level at reference year 2000 for allgenerations. They require the doubling of the fraction of labor resources devoted to the creation ofknowledge relative to the reference level, whereas the fractions of labor allocated to consumptionand leisure are similar to the reference ones. On the other hand, higher growth rates requiresubstantial increases in the fraction of labor devoted to education, together with moderate increasesin the fractions of labor devoted to knowledge and the investment in physical capital.

Dynamic social representations of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic: Shifting patterns of sense-making and blame

We investigate dynamics of public perceptions of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic to understand changing patterns of sense-making and blame regarding the outbreak of emerging infectious diseases. We draw on social representation theory combined with a dramaturgical perspective to identify changes in how various collectives are depicted over the course of the pandemic, according to three roles: heroes, villains and victims. Quantitative results based on content analysis of three cross-sectional waves of interviews show a shift from mentions of distant collectives (e.g., far-flung countries) at Wave 1 to local collectives (e.g., risk groups) as the pandemic became of more immediate concern (Wave 2) and declined (Wave 3). Semi-automated content analysis of media coverage shows similar results. Thematic analyses of the discourse associated with collectives revealed that many were consistently perceived as heroes, villains and victims.