The welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post-war period

Lucas (1987) has shown the surprising result that the welfare cost of business cycles is quite small. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a fully-áedged econometric model we computed the welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty for the post-WWII era using the multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition for trends and cycles, which considers not only business-cycle uncertainty but also uncertainty from the stochastic trend in consumption. The post-WWII period is relatively quiet, with the welfare costs of uncertainty being about 0:9% of per-capita consumption. Although changing the decomposition method changed substantially initial results, the welfare cost of uncertainty is qualitatively small in the post-WWII era - about $175.00 a year per-capita in the U.S. We also computed the marginal welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty using this same technique. It is about twice as large as the welfare cost ñ$350.00 a year per-capita.

The welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post-war period

With standard assumptions on preferences and a fully-fledged econometric model we computed the welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty for post-war U.S. using the BeveridgeNelson decomposition. Welfare costs are about 0.9% per-capita consumption ($175.00) and marginal welfare costs are about twice as large.

Development and evaluation of a range anxiety-reducing business model for connected full electric vehicles

This thesis develops and evaluates a business model for connected full electric vehicles (FEV) for the European market. Despite a promoting political environment, various barriers have thus far prevented the FEV from becoming a mass-market vehicle. Besides cost, the most noteworthy of these barriers is represented by range anxiety, a product of FEVs’ limited range, lacking availability of charging infrastructure, and long recharging times. Connected FEVs, which maintain a constant connection to the surrounding infrastructure, appear to be a promising element to overcome drivers’ range anxiety. Yet their successful application requires a well functioning FEV ecosystem which can only be created through the collaboration of various stakeholders such as original equipment manufacturers (OEM), first tier suppliers (FTS), charging infrastructure and service providers (CISP), utilities, communication enablers, and governments. This thesis explores and evaluates how a business model, jointly created by these stakeholders, could look like, i.e. how stakeholders could collaborate in the design of products, services, infrastructure, and advanced mobility management, to meet drivers with a sensible value proposition that is at least equivalent to that of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. It suggests that this value proposition will be an end-2-end package provided by CISPs or OEMs that comprises mobility packages (incl. pay per mile plans, battery leasing, charging and battery swapping (BS) infrastructure) and FEVs equipped with an on-board unit (OBU) combined with additional services targeted at range anxiety reduction. From a theoretical point of view the thesis answers the question which business model framework is suitable for the development of a holistic, i.e. all stakeholder-comprising business model for connected FEVs and defines such a business model. In doing so the thesis provides the first comprehensive business model related research findings on connected FEVs, as prior works focused on the much less complex scenario featuring only “offline” FEVs.

On the cost of sympathy : a alternative model of insurance markets

The paper provides an alternative model for insurance market with three types of agents: households, providers of a service and insurance companies. Households have uncertainty about future leveIs of income. Providers, if hired by a household, perform a diagnoses and privately learn a signal. For each signal there is a procedure that maximizes the likelihood of the household obtaining the good state of nature. The paper assumes that providers care about their income and also about the likelihood households will obtain the good state of nature (sympathy assumption). This assumption is satisfied if, for example, they care about their reputation or if there are possible litigation costs in case they do not use the appropriate procedure. Finally, insurance companies offer contracts to both providers and households. The paper provides sufficient conditions for the existence of equilibrium and shows that the sympathy assumption 1eads to a 10ss of welfare for the households due to the need to incentive providers to choose the least expensive treatment.

Three applications of the marginal cost of public funds concept

This paper illustrates the use of the marginal cost of public funds concept in three contexts. First, we extend Parry’s (2003) analysis of the efficiency effects excise taxes in the U.K., primarily by incorporating the distortion caused by imperfect competition in the cigarette market and distinguishing between the MCFs for per unit and ad valorem taxes on cigarettes. Our computations show, contrary to the standard result in the literature, that the per unit tax on cigarettes has a slightly lower MCF than the ad valorem tax on cigarettes. Second, we calculate the MCF for a payroll tax in a labour market with involuntary unemployment, using the Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984) efficiency wage model as our framework. Our computations, based on Canadian labour market data, indicate that incorporating the distortion caused by involuntary unemployment raises the MCF by 25 to 50 percent. Third, we derive expressions for the distributionally-weighted MCFs for the exemption level and the marginal tax rate for a “flat tax”, such as the one that has been adopted by the province of Alberta. This allows us to develop a restricted, but tractable, version of the optimal income tax problem. Computations indicate that the optimal marginal tax rate may be quite high, even with relatively modest pro-poor distributional preferences.

Model to increase the lateral line length of drip irrigation systems

Non-pressure compensating drip hose is widely used for irrigation of vegetables and orchards. One limitation is that the lateral line length must be short to maintain uniformity due to head loss and slope. Any procedure to increase the length is appropriate because it represents low initial cost of the irrigation system. The hypothesis of this research is that it is possible to increase the lateral line length combining two points: using a larger spacing between emitters at the beginning of the lateral line and a smaller one after a certain distance; and allowing a higher pressure variation along the lateral line under an acceptable value of distribution uniformity. To evaluate this hypothesis, a nonlinear programming model (NLP) was developed. The input data are: diameter, roughness coefficient, pressure variation, emitter operational pressure, relationship between emitter discharge and pressure. The output data are: line length, discharge and length of the each section with different spacing between drippers, total discharge in the lateral line, multiple outlet adjustment coefficient, head losses, localized head loss, pressure variation, number of emitters, spacing between emitters, discharge in each emitter, and discharge per linear meter. The mathematical model developed was compared with the lateral line length obtained with the algebraic solution generated by the Darcy-Weisbach equation. The NLP model showed the best results since it generated the greater gain in the lateral line length, maintaining the uniformity and the flow variation under acceptable standards. It had also the lower flow variation, so its adoption is feasible and recommended.

Avaliação de cálculos urinários em per-operatórios por imagem digital e técnicas físico-químicas e analíticas

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

A NS-2 simulation model for DNP3 protocol over IEEE 802.15.4 wireless protocol toward low cost simulation of Smart Grid applications

Faced with an imminent restructuring of the electric power system, over the past few years many countries have invested in a new paradigm known as Smart Grid. This paradigm targets optimization and automation of electric power network, using advanced information and communication technologies. Among the main communication protocols for Smart Grids we have the DNP3 protocol, which provides secure data transmission with moderate rates. The IEEE 802.15.4 is another communication protocol also widely used in Smart Grid, especially in the so-called Home Area Network (HAN). Thus, many applications of Smart Grid depends on the interaction of these two protocols. This paper proposes modeling, in the traditional network simulator NS-2, the integration of DNP3 protocol and the IEEE 802.15.4 wireless standard for low cost simulations of Smart Grid applications.

The optimal lysine and threonine intake for Cobb broiler breeder hens using Reading model

This study aimed to determine the optimal intake of lysine and threonine for broiler breeder hens. Two experiments were conducted to evaluate the responses of birds to digestible lysine (Lys) and threonine (Thr). Eight treatments were assessed in both experiments, with six replicates of eight birds in the Lys experiment and ten birds in the Thr experiment. The dietary levels of Lys and Thr were obtained by a dilution technique. The experimental period was ten weeks for each amino acid studied, which included six weeks of adaptation and four weeks of data collection. The amino acid intake, egg mass and body weight were adjusted using a Reading model. Based on the model coefficients, the cost of the synthetic amino acids sources and the price of fertile eggs determined the intake of each amino acid to maximize. The minimum intake of Lys and Thr reduced egg production by 40 and 30%, respectively, the weight of the eggs decreased by 12 and 9% with the same intake of Lys and Thr, respectively. The models generated by predicting Lys and Thr intake were as follows: Lys=11 x E+31 x W and Thr=9.5 x E+32 x W, where E=egg mass, g/bird per day, and W=body weight, kg/bird. Based on the models, 3 kg birds with an egg mass production of 50 g/day require 643 mg/bird per day of Lys and 569 mg/bird per day of Thr. The optimum economic intake was calculated at 954 and 834 mg/bird per day for Lys and Thr, respectively, reflecting a dietary concentration of 0.636% Lys and 0.556% Thr for a feed intake of 150 g/bird per day. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal childhood hepatitis A vaccination in Brazil: Regional analyses according to the endemic context

Objective: To To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of a universal childhood hepatitis A vaccination program in Brazil. Methods: An age and time-dependent dynamic model was developed to estimate the incidence of hepatitis A for 24 years. The analysis was run separately according to the pattern of regional endemicity, one for South + Southeast (low endemicity) and one for the North + Northeast + Midwest (intermediate endemicity). The decision analysis model compared universal childhood vaccination with current program of vaccinating high risk individuals. Epidemiologic and cost estimates were based on data from a nationwide seroprevalence survey of viral hepatitis, primary data collection, National Health Information Systems and literature. The analysis was conducted from both the health system and societal perspectives. Costs are expressed in 2008 Brazilian currency (Real). Results: A universal immunization program would have a significant impact on disease epidemiology in all regions, resulting in 64% reduction in the number of cases of icteric hepatitis, 59% reduction in deaths for the disease and a 62% decrease of life years lost, in a national perspective. With a vaccine price of R$16.89 (US$7.23) per dose, vaccination against hepatitis A was a cost-saving strategy in the low and intermediate endemicity regions and in Brazil as a whole from both health system and society perspective. Results were most sensitive to the frequency of icteric hepatitis, ambulatory care and vaccine costs. Conclusions: Universal childhood vaccination program against hepatitis A could be a cost-saving strategy in all regions of Brazil. These results are useful for the Brazilian government for vaccine related decisions and for monitoring population impact if the vaccine is included in the National Immunization Program. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of conventional and modified supervised toothbrushing in preventing caries in permanent molars among 5-year-old children

The cost-effectiveness of a modified supervised toothbrushing program was compared to a conventional program. A total of 284 five-year-old children presenting at least one permanent molar with emerged/sound occlusal surface participated. In the control group, oral health education and dental plaque dying followed by toothbrushing with fluoride dentifrice was carried outfour times per year. With the test group, children also underwent professional cross-brushing on surfaces of first permanent molar rendered by a dental assistant five times per year. Enamel/dentin caries were recorded on buccal, occlusal and lingual surfaces of permanent molars for a period of 18 months. The incidence density (ID) ratio was estimated using Poisson's regression model. The ID was 50% lower among boys in the test group (p = 0.016). The cost of the modified program was US$ 1.79 per capita. The marginal cost-effectiveness ratio among boys was US$ 6.30 per avoided carie. The modified supervised toothbrushing program was shown to be cost-effective in the case of boys.

A SIMPLIFIED MODEL FOR EVALUATING TIRE WEAR DURING CONCEPTUAL DESIGN

In the field of vehicle dynamics, commercial software can aid the designer during the conceptual and detailed design phases. Simulations using these tools can quickly provide specific design metrics, such as yaw and lateral velocity, for standard maneuvers. However, it remains challenging to correlate these metrics with empirical quantities that depend on many external parameters and design specifications. This scenario is the case with tire wear, which depends on the frictional work developed by the tire-road contact. In this study, an approach is proposed to estimate the tire-road friction during steady-state longitudinal and cornering maneuvers. Using this approach, a qualitative formula for tire wear evaluation is developed, and conceptual design analyses of cornering maneuvers are performed using simplified vehicle models. The influence of some design parameters such as cornering stiffness, the distance between the axles, and the steer angle ratio between the steering axles for vehicles with two steering axles is evaluated. The proposed methodology allows the designer to predict tire wear using simplified vehicle models during the conceptual design phase.

Cost-effectiveness of introducing the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine into the universal immunisation of infants in Brazil

Background Cost-effectiveness studies have been increasingly part of decision processes for incorporating new vaccines into the Brazilian National Immunisation Program. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) in the universal childhood immunisation programme in Brazil. Methods A decision-tree analytical model based on the ProVac Initiative pneumococcus model was used, following 25 successive cohorts from birth until 5 years of age. Two strategies were compared: (1) status quo and (2) universal childhood immunisation programme with PCV10. Epidemiological and cost estimates for pneumococcal disease were based on National Health Information Systems and literature. A 'top-down' costing approach was employed. Costs are reported in 2004 Brazilian reals. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3%. Results 25 years after implementing the PCV10 immunisation programme, 10 226 deaths, 360 657 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), 433 808 hospitalisations and 5 117 109 outpatient visits would be avoided. The cost of the immunisation programme would be R$10 674 478 765, and the expected savings on direct medical costs and family costs would be R$1 036 958 639 and R$209 919 404, respectively. This resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of R$778 145/death avoided and R$22 066/DALY avoided from the society perspective. Conclusion The PCV10 universal infant immunisation programme is a cost-effective intervention (1-3 GDP per capita/DALY avoided). Owing to the uncertain burden of disease data, as well as unclear long-term vaccine effects, surveillance systems to monitor the long-term effects of this programme will be essential.

Cost effectiveness of OptiMal® rapid diagnostic test for malaria in remote areas of the Amazon Region, Brazil

Abstract Background In areas with limited structure in place for microscopy diagnosis, rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) have been demonstrated to be effective. Method The cost-effectiveness of the Optimal® and thick smear microscopy was estimated and compared. Data were collected on remote areas of 12 municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon. Data sources included the National Malaria Control Programme of the Ministry of Health, the National Healthcare System reimbursement table, hospitalization records, primary data collected from the municipalities, and scientific literature. The perspective was that of the Brazilian public health system, the analytical horizon was from the start of fever until the diagnostic results provided to patient and the temporal reference was that of year 2006. The results were expressed in costs per adequately diagnosed cases in 2006 U.S. dollars. Sensitivity analysis was performed considering key model parameters. Results In the case base scenario, considering 92% and 95% sensitivity for thick smear microscopy to Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, respectively, and 100% specificity for both species, thick smear microscopy is more costly and more effective, with an incremental cost estimated at US$549.9 per adequately diagnosed case. In sensitivity analysis, when sensitivity and specificity of microscopy for P. vivax were 0.90 and 0.98, respectively, and when its sensitivity for P. falciparum was 0.83, the RDT was more cost-effective than microscopy. Conclusion Microscopy is more cost-effective than OptiMal® in these remote areas if high accuracy of microscopy is maintained in the field. Decision regarding use of rapid tests for diagnosis of malaria in these areas depends on current microscopy accuracy in the field.