What controls the vertical distribution of aerosol? Relationships between process sensitivity in HadGEM3–UKCA and inter-model variation from AeroCom Phase II

The vertical profile of aerosol is important for its radiative effects, but weakly constrained by observations on the global scale, and highly variable among different models. To investigate the controlling factors in one particular model, we investigate the effects of individual processes in HadGEM3–UKCA and compare the resulting diversity of aerosol vertical profiles with the inter-model diversity from the AeroCom Phase II control experiment. In this way we show that (in this model at least) the vertical profile is controlled by a relatively small number of processes, although these vary among aerosol components and particle sizes. We also show that sufficiently coarse variations in these processes can produce a similar diversity to that among different models in terms of the global-mean profile and, to a lesser extent, the zonal-mean vertical position. However, there are features of certain models' profiles that cannot be reproduced, suggesting the influence of further structural differences between models. In HadGEM3–UKCA, convective transport is found to be very important in controlling the vertical profile of all aerosol components by mass. In-cloud scavenging is very important for all except mineral dust. Growth by condensation is important for sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol (along with aqueous oxidation for the former and ageing by soluble material for the latter). The vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions into the free troposphere is also important for the profile of carbonaceous aerosol. Boundary-layer mixing plays a dominant role for sea salt and mineral dust, which are emitted only from the surface. Dry deposition and below-cloud scavenging are important for the profile of mineral dust only. In this model, the microphysical processes of nucleation, condensation and coagulation dominate the vertical profile of the smallest particles by number (e.g. total CN  >  3 nm), while the profiles of larger particles (e.g. CN  >  100 nm) are controlled by the same processes as the component mass profiles, plus the size distribution of primary emissions. We also show that the processes that affect the AOD-normalised radiative forcing in the model are predominantly those that affect the vertical mass distribution, in particular convective transport, in-cloud scavenging, aqueous oxidation, ageing and the vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions.

Correlation of the in vitro antifungal drug susceptibility with the in vivo activity of fluconazole in a murine model of cerebral infection caused by Cryptococcus gattii

Forty Cryptococcus gattii strains were submitted to antifungal susceptibility testing with fluconazole, itraconazole, amphotericin B and terbinafine. The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) ranges were 0.5-64.0 for fluconazole, < 0.015-0.25 for itraconazole, 0.015-0.5 for amphotericin B and 0.062-2.0 for terbinafine. A bioassay for the quantitation of fluconazole in murine brain tissue was developed. Swiss mice received daily injections of the antifungal, and their brains were withdrawn at different times over the 14-day study period. The drug concentrations varied from 12.98 to 44.60 mu g/mL. This assay was used to evaluate the therapy with fluconazole in a model of infection caused by C. gattii. Swiss mice were infected intracranially and treated with fluconazole for 7, 10 or 14 days. The treatment reduced the fungal burden, but an increase in fungal growth was observed on day 14. The MIC for fluconazole against sequential isolates was 16 mu g/mL, except for the isolates obtained from animals treated for 14 days (MIC = 64 mu g/mL). The quantitation of cytokines revealed a predominance of IFN-gamma and IL-12 in the non-treated group and elevation of IL-4 and IL-10 in the treated group. Our data revealed the possibility of acquired resistance during the antifungal drug therapy.

Association between particulate matter from biomass burning and respiratory diseases in the southern region of the Brazilian Amazon

Objective. To investigate the short-term effects of exposure to particulate matter from biomass burning in the Amazon on the daily demand for outpatient care due to respiratory diseases in children and the elderly. Methods. Epidemiologic study with ecologic time series design. Daily consultation records were obtained from the 14 primary health care clinics in the municipality of Alta Floresta, state of Mato Grosso, in the southern region of the Brazilian Amazon, between January 2004 and December 2005. Information on the daily levels of fine particulate matter was made available by the Brazilian National Institute for Spatial Research. To control for confounding factors ( situations in which a non-causal association between exposure and disease is observed due to a third variable), variables related to time trends, seasonality, temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and calendar effects ( such as occurrence of holidays and weekends) were included in the model. Poisson regression with generalized additive models was used. Results. A 10 mu g/m(3) increase in the level of exposure to particulate matter was associated with increases of 2.9% and 2.6% in outpatient consultations due to respiratory diseases in children on the 6th and 7th days following exposure. Significant associations were not observed for elderly individuals. Conclusions. The results suggest that the levels of particulate matter from biomass burning in the Amazon are associated with adverse effects on the respiratory health of children.

A model for the stabilization of atomic hydrogen centers in borate glasses

A previously proposed model describing the trapping site of the interstitial atomic hydrogen in borate glasses is analyzed. In this model the atomic hydrogen is stabilized at the centers of oxygen polygons belonging to B-O ring structures in the glass network by van der Waals forces. The previously reported atomic hydrogen isothermal decay experimental data are discussed in the light of this microscopic model. A coupled differential equation system of the observed decay kinetics was solved numerically using the Runge Kutta method. The experimental untrapping activation energy of 0.7 x 10(-19) J is in good agreement with the calculated results of dispersion interaction between the stabilized atomic hydrogen and the neighboring oxygen atoms at the vertices of hexagonal ring structures. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measuring time series predictability using support vector regression

Most studies involving statistical time series analysis rely on assumptions of linearity, which by its simplicity facilitates parameter interpretation and estimation. However, the linearity assumption may be too restrictive for many practical applications. The implementation of nonlinear models in time series analysis involves the estimation of a large set of parameters, frequently leading to overfitting problems. In this article, a predictability coefficient is estimated using a combination of nonlinear autoregressive models and the use of support vector regression in this model is explored. We illustrate the usefulness and interpretability of results by using electroencephalographic records of an epileptic patient.

Signed likelihood ratio tests in the Birnbaum-Saunders regression model

The Birnbaum-Saunders regression model is becoming increasingly popular in lifetime analyses and reliability studies. In this model, the signed likelihood ratio statistic provides the basis for testing inference and construction of confidence limits for a single parameter of interest. We focus on the small sample case, where the standard normal distribution gives a poor approximation to the true distribution of the statistic. We derive three adjusted signed likelihood ratio statistics that lead to very accurate inference even for very small samples. Two empirical applications are presented. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

HFD groups in the Solovay model

Hajnal and Juhasz proved that under CH there is a hereditarily separable, hereditarily normal topological group without non-trivial convergent sequences that is countably compact and not Lindelof. The example constructed is a topological subgroup H subset of 2(omega 1) that is an HFD with the following property (P) the projection of H onto every partial product 2(I) for I is an element of vertical bar omega(1)vertical bar(omega) is onto. Any such group has the necessary properties. We prove that if kappa is a cardinal of uncountable cofinality, then in the model obtained by forcing over a model of CH with the measure algebra on 2(kappa), there is an HFD topological group in 2(omega 1) which has property (P). Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved maximum-likelihood estimation in a regression model with general parametrization

We analyse the finite-sample behaviour of two second-order bias-corrected alternatives to the maximum-likelihood estimator of the parameters in a multivariate normal regression model with general parametrization proposed by Patriota and Lemonte [A. G. Patriota and A. J. Lemonte, Bias correction in a multivariate regression model with genereal parameterization, Stat. Prob. Lett. 79 (2009), pp. 1655-1662]. The two finite-sample corrections we consider are the conventional second-order bias-corrected estimator and the bootstrap bias correction. We present the numerical results comparing the performance of these estimators. Our results reveal that analytical bias correction outperforms numerical bias corrections obtained from bootstrapping schemes.

Heterogeneous photocatalytic degradation of acid dyes in aqueous TiO2 suspensions: Kinetics and toxicity

This work assesses the photocatalytic (TiO2/UV) degradation of a simulated acid dye bath (Yellow 3, Red 51, Blue 74, and auxiliary chemicals). Color and phytotoxicity removal were monitored by spectrophotometry and lettuce (Lactuca sativa) seeds as the test organism, respectively. Mineralization was determined by DOC analyses. Photocatalytic, photolytic, and adsorption experiments were performed, showing that adsorption was negligible. After 240 minutes of irradiation, it was achieved 96% and 78% of color removal with photocatalysis and photolysis, respectively. 37% of mineralization occurred with photocatalysis only. The dye bath was rendered completely non-toxic after 60 minutes of photocatalytic treatment; the same result was only achieved with photolysis after 90 minutes. A kinetic model composed of two first-order in series reactions was used. The first photocatalytic decolorization rate constant was k(1) = 0.062 min(-1) and the second k(2) = 0.0043 min(-1), approximately two times greater than the photolytic ones.

Heterogeneous photocatalytic degradation of reactive dyes in aqueous TiO(2) suspensions: Decolorization kinetics

This work assesses the photocatalytic (TiO(2)/UV) degradation of a simulated reactive dye bath (Black 5, Red 239, Yellow 17, and auxiliary chemicals). Color removal was monitored by spectrophotometry. Mineralization was determined by DOC analyses. Photocatalytic, photolytic, and adsorption experiments were performed, showing that adsorption was negligible. After 30 min of irradiation, it was achieved 97% and 40% of color removal with photocatalysis and photolysis, respectively. No mineralization occurred within 30 min. A kinetic model composed of two, first-order in-series reactions was used. The first photocatalytic decolorization rate constant was k(1) = 2.6 min(-1) and the second k(2) = 0.011 min(-1). The fast decolorization of Reactive Black 5 dye is an indication that the number of azo and vinylsulfone groups in the dye molecule maybe a determining factor for the increased photolytic and photocatalytic color removal and degradation rates. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On choice of technique in the Robinson-Solow-Srinivasan model

We report results on the optimal \choice of technique" in a model originally formulated by Robinson, Solow and Srinivasan (henceforth, the RSS model) and further discussed by Okishio and Stiglitz. By viewing this vintage-capital model without discounting as a speci c instance of the general theory of intertemporal resource allocation associated with Brock, Gale and McKenzie, we resolve longstanding conjectures in the form of theorems on the existence and price support of optimal paths, and of conditions suÆcient for the optimality of a policy rst identi ed by Stiglitz. We dispose of the necessity of these conditions in surprisingly simple examples of economies in which (i) an optimal path is periodic, (ii) a path following Stiglitz' policy is bad, and (iii) there is optimal investment in di erent vintages at di erent times. (129 words)

On a uniform turnpike of the third kind in the Robinson-Solow-Srinivasan model

On using McKenzie’s taxonomy of optimal accumulation in the longrun, we report a “uniform turnpike” theorem of the third kind in a model original to Robinson, Solow and Srinivasan (RSS), and further studied by Stiglitz. Our results are presented in the undiscounted, discrete-time setting emphasized in the recent work of Khan-Mitra, and they rely on the importance of strictly concave felicity functions, or alternatively, on the value of a “marginal rate of transformation”, ξσ, from one period to the next not being unity. Our results, despite their specificity, contribute to the methodology of intertemporal optimization theory, as developed in economics by Ramsey, von Neumann and their followers.

Public versus private provision of infrastructure in a neoclassical growth model

This article studies the welfare and long run allocation impacts of privatization. There are two types of capital in this model economy, one private and the other initially public (“infrastructure”). A positive externality due to infrastructure capital is assumed, so that the government could improve upon decentralized allocations internalizing the externality, but public investmentis …nanced through distortionary taxation. It is shown that privatization is welfare-improving for a large set of economies and that after privatization under-investment is optimal. When operation inefficiency in the public sectoror subsidy to infrastructure accumulation are introduced, gains from privatization are higherand positive for most reasonable combinations of parameters.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major differences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values -β=0.985, and ∅=5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% - the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business- cycle fluctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same figures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas(1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major diferences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values = 0:985, and = 5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business-cycle uctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same gures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.