Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty

This paper extends the Nelson-Siegel linear factor model by developing a flexible macro-finance framework for modeling and forecasting the term structure of US interest rates. Our approach is robust to parameter uncertainty and structural change, as we consider instabilities in parameters and volatilities, and our model averaging method allows for investors' model uncertainty over time. Our time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (NS-DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks and successfully captures plausible time-varying term premia in real time. The proposed model has significant in-sample and out-of-sample predictability for excess bond returns, and the predictability is of economic value.

A cell-based model of extracellular-matrix-guided endothelial cell migration during angiogenesis.

Angiogenesis, the formation of new blood vessels sprouting from existing ones, occurs in several situations like wound healing, tissue remodeling, and near growing tumors. Under hypoxic conditions, tumor cells secrete growth factors, including VEGF. VEGF activates endothelial cells (ECs) in nearby vessels, leading to the migration of ECs out of the vessel and the formation of growing sprouts. A key process in angiogenesis is cellular self-organization, and previous modeling studies have identified mechanisms for producing networks and sprouts. Most theoretical studies of cellular self-organization during angiogenesis have ignored the interactions of ECs with the extra-cellular matrix (ECM), the jelly or hard materials that cells live in. Apart from providing structural support to cells, the ECM may play a key role in the coordination of cellular motility during angiogenesis. For example, by modifying the ECM, ECs can affect the motility of other ECs, long after they have left. Here, we present an explorative study of the cellular self-organization resulting from such ECM-coordinated cell migration. We show that a set of biologically-motivated, cell behavioral rules, including chemotaxis, haptotaxis, haptokinesis, and ECM-guided proliferation suffice for forming sprouts and branching vascular trees.

First Report of a Newborn Rat Ventilation Model for Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia Permitting Evaluation of Long-Term Outcome

Background: Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) remains the leading cause of chronic pulmonary morbidity among preterm neonates. However, the exact pathophysiology is still unknown. Here we present the first results from a new model inteAbstracts, 25th International Workshop on Surfactant Replacement 400 Neonatology 2010;97:395-400 grating the most common risk factors for BPD (lung immaturity, inflammation, mechanical ventilation (MV), oxygen), which allows long-term outcome evaluation due to a non-traumatic intubation procedure. Objectives: To test the feasibility of a new rat model by investigating effects of MV, inflammation and oxygen applied to immature lungs after a ventilation-free interval. Methods: On day 4, 5, or 6 newborn rats were given an intraperitoneal injection of lipopolysaccharides to induce a systemic inflammation. 24 h later they were anesthetized, endotracheally intubated and ventilated for 8 h with 60% oxygen. After weaning of anesthesia and MV the newborn rats were extubated and returned to their mothers. Two days later they were killed and outcome measurements were performed (histology, quantitative RT-PCR) and compared to animals investigated directly after MV. Results: Directly after MV, histological signs of ventilator-induced lung injury were found. After 48 h, the first signs of early BPD were seen with delayed alveolar formation. Expression of inflammatory genes was only transiently increased. After 48 h genes involved in alveolarization, such as matrix metalloproteinase-9 and tropoelastin, showed a significant change of their expression. Conclusion: For the first time we can evaluate in a newborn rat model the effects of MV after a ventilation-free interval. This allows discrimination between immediate response genes and delayed changes of expression of more structural genes involved in alveolarization.

Bringing actors and violent conflict into forced migration literature. A model of the decision to return

Populations displaced as a result of mass violent conflict have become one of the most pressing humanitarian concerns of the last decades. They have also become one salient political issue as a perceived burden (in economic and security terms) and as an important piece in the shift towards a more interventionist paradigm in the international system, based on both humanitarian and security grounds. The saliency of these aspects has detracted attention from the analysis of the interactions between relocation processes and violent conflict. Violent conflict studies have also largely ignored those interactions as a result of the consideration of these processes as mere reaction movements determined by structural conditions. This article takes the view that individual’s agency is retained during such processes, and that it is consequential, calling for the need to introduce a micro perspective. Based on this, a model for the individual’s decision of return is presented. The model has the potential to account for the dynamics of return at both the individual and the aggregate level. And it further helps to grasp fundamental interconnections with violent conflict. Some relevant conclusions are derived for the case of Bosnia-Herzegovina and about the implications of the politicization of return.

Structural decomposition analysis and input-output subsystems: An application to Spanish CO2 emissions

Analysis of gas emissions by the input-output subsystem approach provides detailed insight into pollution generation in an economy. Structural decomposition analysis, on the other hand, identifies the factors behind the changes in key variables over time. Extending the input-output subsystem model to account for the changes in these variables reveals the channels by which environmental burdens are caused and transmitted throughout the production system. In this paper we propose a decomposition of the changes in the components of CO2 emissions captured by an input-output subsystems representation. The empirical application is for the Spanish service sector, and the economic and environmental data are for years 1990 and 2000. Our results show that services increased their CO2 emissions mainly because of a rise in emissions generated by non-services to cover the final demand for services. In all service activities, the decomposed effects show an increase in CO2 emissions due to a decrease in emission coefficients (i.e., emissions per unit of output) compensated by an increase in emissions caused both by the input-output coefficients and the rise in demand for services. Finally, large asymmetries exist not only in the quantitative changes in the CO2 emissions of the various services but also in the decomposed effects of these changes. Keywords: structural decomposition analysis, input-output subsystems, CO2 emissions, service sector.

Structural and functional interaction sites between Na,K-ATPase and FXYD proteins.

Several members of the FXYD protein family are tissue-specific regulators of Na,K-ATPase that produce distinct effects on its apparent K(+) and Na(+) affinity. Little is known about the interaction sites between the Na,K-ATPase alpha subunit and FXYD proteins that mediate the efficient association and/or the functional effects of FXYD proteins. In this study, we have analyzed the role of the transmembrane segment TM9 of the Na,K-ATPase alpha subunit in the structural and functional interaction with FXYD2, FXYD4, and FXYD7. Mutational analysis combined with expression in Xenopus oocytes reveals that Phe(956), Glu(960), Leu(964), and Phe(967) in TM9 of the Na,K-ATPase alpha subunit represent one face interacting with the three FXYD proteins. Leu(964) and Phe(967) contribute to the efficient association of FXYD proteins with the Na,K-ATPase alpha subunit, whereas Phe(956) and Glu(960) are essential for the transmission of the functional effect of FXYD proteins on the apparent K(+) affinity of Na,K-ATPase. The relative contribution of Phe(956) and Glu(960) to the K(+) effect differs for different FXYD proteins, probably reflecting the intrinsic differences of FXYD proteins on the apparent K(+) affinity of Na,K-ATPase. In contrast to the effect on the apparent K(+) affinity, Phe(956) and Glu(960) are not involved in the effect of FXYD2 and FXYD4 on the apparent Na(+) affinity of Na,K-ATPase. The mutational analysis is in good agreement with a docking model of the Na,K-ATPase/FXYD7 complex, which also predicts the importance of Phe(956), Glu(960), Leu(964), and Phe(967) in subunit interaction. In conclusion, by using mutational analysis and modeling, we show that TM9 of the Na,K-ATPase alpha subunit exposes one face of the helix that interacts with FXYD proteins and contributes to the stable interaction with FXYD proteins, as well as mediating the effect of FXYD proteins on the apparent K(+) affinity of Na,K-ATPase.

Testing for sufficient information in structural VARs

We derive necessary and sufficient conditions under which a set of variables is informationally sufficient, i.e. it contains enough information to estimate the structural shocks with a VAR model. Based on such conditions, we suggest a procedure to test for informational sufficiency. Moreover, we show how to amend the VAR if informational sufficiency is rejected. We apply our procedure to a VAR including TFP, unemployment and per-capita hours worked. We find that the three variables are not informationally sufficient. When adding missing information, the effects of technology shocks change dramatically.

Coltop3D: A new software for structural analysis with high resolution 3D point clouds and DEM

Coltop3D is a software that performs structural analysis by using digital elevation model (DEM) and 3D point clouds acquired with terrestrial laser scanners. A color representation merging slope aspect and slope angle is used in order to obtain a unique code of color for each orientation of a local slope. Thus a continuous planar structure appears in a unique color. Several tools are included to create stereonets, to draw traces of discontinuities, or to compute automatically density stereonet. Examples are shown to demonstrate the efficiency of the method.

Same wording, distinct concepts? Testing differences between expectancies and motives in a mediation model of alcohol outcomes.

Per definition, alcohol expectancies (after alcohol I expect X), and drinking motives (I drink to achieve X) are conceptually distinct constructs. Theorists have argued that motives mediate the association between expectancies and drinking outcomes. Yet, given the use of different instruments, do these constructs remain distinct when assessment items are matched? The present study tested to what extent motives mediated the link between expectancies and alcohol outcomes when identical items were used, first as expectancies and then as motives. A linear structural equation model was estimated based on a national representative sample of 5,779 alcohol-using students in Switzerland (mean age = 15.2 years). The results showed that expectancies explained up to 38% of the variance in motives. Together with motives, they explained up to 48% of the variance in alcohol outcomes (volume, 5+ drinking, and problems). In 10 of 12 outcomes, there was a significant mediated effect that was often higher than the direct expectancy effect. For coping, the expectancy effect was close to zero, indicating the strongest form of mediation. In only one case (conformity and 5+ drinking), there was a direct expectancy effect but no mediation. To conclude, the study demonstrates that motives are distinct from expectancies even when identical items are used. Motives are more proximally related to different alcohol outcomes, often mediating the effects of expectancies. Consequently, the effectiveness of interventions, particularly those aimed at coping drinkers, should be improved through a shift in focus from expectancies to drinking motives.

Influence of the in vivo deregulation of the expression of ntrk3 (trkc) on cortical development of a murine model of panic/anxiety disorder

Alteracions durant el desenvolupament cerebral produirien canvis en la connectivitat neuronal i la bioquímica cel•lular que podrien resultar en una disfunció cognitiva i/o emocional, desembocant a trastorns psiquiàtrics. Les neurotrofines intervenen en els processos del neurodesenvolupament i en la funcionalitat del cervell adult i, conseqüentment, serien bons candidats com a factors de predisposició en diverses malalties mentals. S’ha suggerit la implicació del receptor de la neurotrofina 3, TrkC, en el trastorn de pànic. Nosaltres proposem que la sobreexpressió del gen NTRK3 (TrkC) és un mediador comú dels desencadenants genètics i ambientals d’aquest trastorn. Concretament, la seva desregulació podria produir canvis estructurals i funcionals a l’escorça cerebral dels pacients pel seu paper durant l’establiment dels circuïts corticals i la neuroplasticitat a l’adult, probablement esdevenint elements de predisposició a patir atacs de pànic. Els objectius principals d’aquest treball han estat: 1/determinar la contribució específica del gen NTRK3 a les alteracions de l’escorça cerebral observades en pacients, utilitzant un model murí modificat genèticament (TgNTRK3), i 2/analitzar l’impacte específic de la sobreexpressió de NTRK3 sobre la corticogènesi durant estadis embrionaris o postnatals estudiant la neurogènesi i la neuritogènesi. Els resultats indiquen que la sobreexpressió de NTRK3 als ratolins produeix una reducció del gruix de l’escorça frontal, recapitulant la hipofrontalitat dels pacients, que comportaria una menor inhibició dels nuclis subcorticals del sistema límbic com l’amígdala, i alteracions citoarquitectòniques a l’escorça prefrontal medial que recolzen la hipòtesi del seu mal funcionament. Tanmateix, els ratolins TgNTRK3 presenten canvis estructurals a l’escorça somatosensorial, suggerint que el processament de la informació sensorial podria estar alterat, el que encara no s’ha explorat en pacients. La sobreexpressió de NTRK3 també afecta la neuritogènesi en cultius primaris corticals i modifica la resposta de les neurones a l’estimulació amb neurotrofines. Per tant, el fenotip cortical adult dels TgNTRK3 podria dependre d’alteracions durant la corticogènesi.

The kidney during hibernation and arousal from hibernation. A natural model of organ preservation during cold ischaemia and reperfusion.

BACKGROUND: During hibernation the kidney is in a hypothermic condition where renal blood flow is minimal and urine production is much reduced. Periodical arousal from hibernation is associated with kidney reperfusion at increasing body temperature, and restored urine production rate. METHODS: To assess the degree of structural preservation during such extreme conditions, the kidney cortex was investigated by means of electron microscopy in the dormouse Muscardinus avellanarius during winter hibernation, arousal from hibernation and the summer active period. RESULTS: Results show that the fine structure of the kidney cortex is well preserved during hibernation. In the renal corpuscle, a sign of slight lesion was the focal presence of oedematous endothelial cells and/or podocytes. Proximal convoluted tubule cells showed fully preserved ultrastructure and polarity, and hypertrophic apical endocytic apparatus. Structural changes were associated with increased plasma electrolytes, creatinine and urea nitrogen, and proteinuria. During the process of arousal the fine structure of the kidney cortex was also well maintained. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate that dormice are able to fully preserve kidney cortex structure under extreme conditions resembling e.g. severe ischaemia or hypothermic organ storage for transplantation, and reperfusion. Elucidation of the mechanisms involved in such a natural model of organ preservation could be relevant to human medicine.

Key competences in the new ventures: a model for evaluating

This research studies from an internal view based on the Competency-Based Perspective (CBP), key organizational competencies developed for small new business. CBP is chosen in an attempt to explain the differences characterizing the closed companies from the consolidated ones. The main contribution of this paper is the definition of a set of key organizational competencies for new ventures from services and low technology based sectors. Using the classification proposed by [1] and a review of the entrepreneurship literature, the main competencies were defined and classified as: managerial, input-based, transformation-based, and output-based competencies. The proposed model for evaluating new ventures organizational competence is tested by means of Structural Equation

Histopathology of Leishmania major infection: revisiting L. major histopathology in the ear dermis infection model

We describe the relationship between lesion outcome and histopathological hallmarks in susceptible (BALB/c) and resistant (C57BL/6 and IL-4-deficient BALB/c) mouse strains over the course of a 12-week-infection with Leishmania major in the ear. The infiltration of mononuclear cells and polymorphonuclear cells occurred within 6 h and mononuclear cells predominated one week post-infection. Permissive intracellular growth of the pathogen was associated with non-healing lesions. In contrast, tissue damage and clearance of the parasite was observed in healing lesions and was associated with inducible nitric oxide synthase expression. The identification of the structural components of tissue reaction to the parasite in this study furthers our understanding of subjacent immune effector mechanisms.

Structural Validity of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISC-IV) in a French-speaking Swiss sample

The Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-fourth edition (i.e. WISC-IV) recognizes a four-factor scoring structure in addition to the Full Scale IQ (FSIQ) score: Verbal Comprehension (VCI), Perceptual Reasoning (PRI), Working Memory (WMI), and Processing Speed (PSI) indices. However, several authors suggested that models based on the Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) theory with 5 or 6 factors provided a better fit to the data than does the current four-factor solution. By comparing the current four-factor structure to CHC-based models, this research aimed to investigate the factorial structure and the constructs underlying the WISC-IV subtest scores with French-speaking Swiss children (N = 249). To deal with this goal, confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs) were conducted. Results showed that a CHC-based model with five factors better fitted the French-Swiss data than did the current WISC-IV scoring structure. All together, these results support the hypothesis of the appropriateness of the CHC model with French-speaking children.

Modelling structural zeros in compositional data

This analysis was stimulated by the real data analysis problem of householdexpenditure data. The full dataset contains expenditure data for a sample of 1224 households. The expenditure is broken down at 2 hierarchical levels: 9 major levels (e.g. housing, food, utilities etc.) and 92 minor levels. There are also 5 factors and 5 covariates at the household level. Not surprisingly, there are a small number of zeros at the major level, but many zeros at the minor level. The question is how best to model the zeros. Clearly, models that tryto add a small amount to the zero terms are not appropriate in general as at least some of the zeros are clearly structural, e.g. alcohol/tobacco for households that are teetotal. The key question then is how to build suitable conditional models. For example, is the sub-composition of spendingexcluding alcohol/tobacco similar for teetotal and non-teetotal households?In other words, we are looking for sub-compositional independence. Also, what determines whether a household is teetotal? Can we assume that it is independent of the composition? In general, whether teetotal will clearly depend on the household level variables, so we need to be able to model this dependence. The other tricky question is that with zeros on more than onecomponent, we need to be able to model dependence and independence of zeros on the different components. Lastly, while some zeros are structural, others may not be, for example, for expenditure on durables, it may be chance as to whether a particular household spends money on durableswithin the sample period. This would clearly be distinguishable if we had longitudinal data, but may still be distinguishable by looking at the distribution, on the assumption that random zeros will usually be for situations where any non-zero expenditure is not small.While this analysis is based on around economic data, the ideas carry over tomany other situations, including geological data, where minerals may be missing for structural reasons (similar to alcohol), or missing because they occur only in random regions which may be missed in a sample (similar to the durables)