Racionalidade limitada na decisão de consumo de etanol no Brasil: um estudo para o período de 2001 até 2011

Os estudos sobre consumo de etanol para veículos leves no Brasil geram bastante interesse para pesquisadores de diversas partes do mundo, dada a possibilidade de investigar características chaves sobre o comportamento do consumidor desse produto. Esta dissertação propõe um estudo que estima a equação de demanda de etanol no Brasil com o objetivo de investigar a existência de inércia na decisão de consumo, que neste trabalho chamaremos de hábito. Foi ajustado um modelo econométrico em dois estágios com dados mensais da ANP, utilizando-se variáveis instrumentais que controlaram a endogeneidade dos preços, para procurar evidências empíricas sobre a influência da inércia na decisão de consumo. Os estados foram classificados em termos das paridades de preço etanol-gasolina (próximos ou distantes do valor de 70%) e em termos de renda (ricos ou pobres). A análise foi dividida em dois períodos para se capturar a influência da entrada da frota flex-fuel na economia brasileira. Por fim foram construídos cenários baseados em médias móveis (para o cálculo das paridades de preço dos combustíveis) para investigar a influência do hábito na decisão de consumo. Concluiu-se que há diferenças significativas nos valores das elasticidades-preço próprias e cruzadas entre os dois períodos estudados e para as diferentes faixas de paridades de preços e classificação de renda. Evidências da influência da inércia na decisão do consumo foram encontradas apenas para os estados classificados como ricos, pois se encontrou diferenças nas magnitudes das elasticidades de preços entre faixas de paridade apenas ao se considerar os critérios de maior estabilidade no tempo, fornecendo indícios de que consumidores desses estados são capazes de adotar uma opção menos vantajosa (em termos de rendimento) como consequência da inércia na decisão de consumo. Para os estados classificados como pobre isto não foi evidenciado.

O Mecanismo de transmissão de preços do petróleo para a gasolina e para o diesel nos EUA nos anos 2000

Através de um Modelo de Correção de Erros este estudo explora possíveis assimetrias no passthrough dos preços de petróleos para os preços do diesel e da gasolina no mercado dos Estados Unidos, analisando, principalmente, se as inversões das tendências das demandas destes derivados afetaram o mecanismo de transmissão de preços. A partir de dados mensais de janeiro de 2001 a dezembro de 2012, para a gasolina foram encontrados indícios de que houve alterações do passthrough em decorrência da quebra da demanda. Porém, é válido destacar que tal resultado ocorreu concomitantemente ao período de recuperação de preços presenciada após a crise de 2008. Em relação ao diesel, não há indícios de que houve alterações no passthrough. Por fim, há evidências da redução do WTI como petróleo de referência em decorrência da sua desvalorização a partir de 2010.

Impactos econômicos da nova realidade da exploração do pré-sal. Existe uma ameaça ao etanol?

A partir de meados dos anos 2000, a produção brasileira de etanol voltou a prosperar. Enquanto isso, em 2007 foi anunciada a descoberta de grandes reservas de petróleo na camada pré-sal no litoral brasileiro. Com isso, a perspectiva promissora para a indústria brasileira de etanol começou a dar lugar ao desenvolvimento de petróleo do pré-sal com um ambicioso programa de investimentos. Além disso, entre 2011 e 2014 o Governo adotou uma nova política de preços domésticos da gasolina e diesel, com o objetivo de reduzir as pressões inflacionárias, mas reduzindo gradualmente a competitividade do etanol, além de comprometer a situação financeira da Petrobras, dificultando investimentos no pré-sal. Considerando tais desafios e a importância dos setores de petróleo e etanol para a economia brasileira, este estudo tem como objetivo avaliar os impactos econômicos de longo prazo da exploração do pré-sal, com especial atenção para as consequências sobre o setor de etanol. É realizada uma avaliação dos impactos da política de controle do preço da gasolina do período 2011-2014 sobre o setor de etanol. Um modelo adaptado de equilíbrio geral dinâmico recursivo é empregado no qual o setor do petróleo do pré-sal é adicionado como uma tecnologia backstop. Os resultados sugerem que o estímulo precoce da produção do pré-sal para alcançar a produção de petróleo esperada pelo Governo traz mais custos do que benefícios para a economia brasileira. Constatou-se que sem interferência do governo, a produção de petróleo do pré-sal torna-se competitiva somente após 2025-2035. Com relação ao impacto sobre a indústria do etanol, verificou-se que o desenvolvimento do pré-sal não enfraquece a produção brasileira de etanol. No entanto, a política de controle de preço da gasolina teve um impacto negativo sobre o setor de etanol.

Exclusivity contracts and competition : the case of the Brazilian fuels market

Exclusivity contracts can help stations by providing brand-value that allows them to obtain higher profits, relative to unbranded retailers. However, branded retailers may have a stronger negative effect over its competitors’ profits. It is not clear which one of these two effects dominates (brand-value vs competition effect). Therefore, the impact of exclusivity over the number of participants in the downstream market is not determined. In this paper, I empirically study the effects of exclusivity agreements on competition in the Brazilian gasoline sector. In order to do so, I estimate an entry model of endogenous product-type choices using data of retailers’ locations and contract choices along with data from the 2010 Brazilian Census. I use my estimates to simulate entry decisions under two counterfactual scenarios: i) mandatory exclusivity and ii) no exclusivity.

Asymetric price adjustment and loss aversion

Ajuste assimétrico de preço é observado em diversos mercados, notavelmente varejo de gasolina: um aumento de custo é passado para os consumidores mais rápido do que uma redução. Eu desenvolvo um modelo de busca dos consumidores que gera essa predição sob aversão à perda. Uma fração dos consumidores ignora os preços no mercado e pode adquirir informação a um custo, o que permite que as firmas tenham lucro com dispersão de preços. Ajuste assimétrico de preço emerge se os consumidores são aversos a perdas em relação a um preço de referência. Custos mais altos tornam os consumidores mais dispostos a procurar, mas também diminui as chances de encontrar preços baixos, gerando uma relação custo-preço convexa.

Essays on cartels and market distortions

This dissertation is a conjunction of three essays on the Industrial Organization field, this empirical work is applied to the Brazilian retail gasoline market. The first essay investigates the existence of spillover effects from cartel activity. The second essay relates the well-known economic puzzle of asymmetric cost pass through to prices with the existence of horizontal coordination - cartels - in the relevant market. Finally, the third essay investigates the effectiveness of antitrust interventions inside the offenders and the consequences of its disclosure in related markets.

Application of multivariable control using artificial neural networks in a debutanizer distillation column

LOPES, Jose Soares Batista et al. Application of multivariable control using artificial neural networks in a debutanizer distillation column.In: INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING - COBEM, 19, 5-9 nov. 2007, Brasilia. Anais... Brasilia, 2007

Análise das emissões gasosas de um veículo flex funcionando com diferentes combustíveis

Efforts in research and development of new technologies to reduce emission levels of pollutant gases in the atmosphere has intensified in the last decades. In this context, it can be highlighted the modern systems of electronic engine management, new automotive catalysts and the use of renewable fuels which contributes to reduce the environmental impact. The purpose of this study was a comparative analysis of gas emissions from a automotive vehicle, operating with different fuels: natural gas, AEHC or gasoline. To execute the experimental tests, a flex vehicle was installed on a chassis dynamometer equipped with a gas analyzer and other complementary accessories according to the standard guidelines of emission and security procedures. Tests were performed according to NBR 6601 and NBR 7024, which define the urban and road driving cycle, respectively. Besides the analysis of exhaust gases in the discharge tube, before and after the catalyst, using the suction probe of the gas analyzer to simulate the vehicle in urban and road traffic, were performed tests of fuel characterization. Final results were conclusive in indicating leaded gasoline as the fuel which most contributed with pollutant emissions in atmosphere and the usual gasoline being the fuel which less contributed with pollutant emissions in atmosphere

Avaliação preliminar da contaminação por BTEX, em água subterrânea de poços tubulares, no município de Natal-RN

Among the different types of pollutants typically attributed to human activities, the petroleum products are one of the most important because of its toxic potential. This toxicity is attributed to the presence of substances such as benzene and its derivatives are very toxic to the central nervous system of man, with chronic toxicity, even in small concentrations. The area chosen for study was the city of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, where samples were collected in six different areas in the city, comprising 10 wells located in the urban area, being carried out in three distinct periods March/2009, December / June/2010 and 2009, and were evaluated for contamination by volatile hydrocarbons (BTEX - benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes), so this work aimed to assess the quality of groundwater wells that supply funding for public supply and trade in the urban area of the city of Natal, in Rio Grande do Norte, contributing to the environmental assessment of the municipality. The analysis of BTEX in water was performed according to EPA Method 8021b. Was used the technique of headspace (TriPlus TP100) coupled to high resolution gas chromatography with selective photoionization detector (PID) and flame ionization (FID) - model Trace GC Ultra, Thermo Electron Corporation brand. The procedure adopted allowed the detection of concentrations of the order of μg.L-1. Data analysis with respect to BTEX in groundwater in the area monitored so far, shows that water quality is still preserved, because it exceeds the limits imposed by the potability Resolution CONAMA Nº. 396, April 2008

Design gráfico da pluma de contaminação por compostos orgânicos voláteiss utilizando software CAD na investigação de passivo ambiental em um posto revendedor de combustíveis em Natal/RN

Among the potentially polluting economic activities that compromise the quality of groundwater are the gas stations. The city of Natal has about 120 gas stations, of which only has an environmental license for operation. Discontinuities in the offices were notified by the Public Ministry of Rio Grande do Norte to carry out the environmental adaptations, among which is the investigation of environmental liabilities. The preliminary and confirmatory stages of this investigation consisted in the evaluation of soil gas surveys with two confirmatory chemical analysis of BTEX, PAH and TPH. To get a good evaluation and interpretation of results obtained in the field, it became necessary three-dimensional representation of them. We used a CAD software to graph the equipment installed in a retail service station fuel in Natal, as well as the plumes of contamination by volatile organic compounds. The tool was concluded that contamination is not located in the current system of underground storage of fuel development, but reflects the historical past in which tanks were removed not tight gasoline and diesel

Pirólise térmica e catalítica de resíduos de vácuo gerados no refino de petróleo

In this study, was used a very promising technique called of pyrolysis, which can be used for obtaining products with higher added value. From oils and residues, since the contribution of heavier oils and residues has intensified to the world refining industry, due to the growing demand for fuel, for example, liquid hydrocarbons in the range of gasoline and diesel. The catalytic pyrolysis of vacuum residues was performed with the use of a mesoporous material belonging the M41S family, which was discovered in the early 90s by researchers Mobil Oil Corporation, allowing new perspectives in the field of catalysis. One of the most important members of this family is the MCM-41, which has a hexagonal arrangement of mesopores with pore diameters between 2 and 10 nm and a high specific surface area, making it very promising for use as a catalyst in petroleum refining for catalytic cracking, and their mesopores facilitate the access of large hydrocarbon molecules. The addition of aluminum in the structure of MCM-41 increases the acidity of the material, making it more positive for application in the petrochemical industry. The mesoporous material of the type Al-MCM41 (ratio Si / Al = 50) was synthesized by hydrothermal method starting from the silica gel, NaOH and distilled water added to the gel pseudobohemita synthesis. Driver was used as structural CTMABr. Removal of organic driver (CTMABr) was observed by TG / DTG and FTIR, but this material was characterized by XRD, which was observed the formation of the main peaks characteristic of mesoporous materials. The analysis of adsorption / desorption of nitrogen this material textural parameters were determined. The vacuum residues (VR's) that are products of the bottom of the vacuum distillation tower used in this study are different from oil fields (regions of Ceará and Rio de Janeiro). Previously characterized by various techniques such as FTIR, viscosity, density, SARA, elemental analysis and thermogravimetry, which was performed by thermal and catalytic degradation of vacuum residues. The effect of AlMCM-41 was satisfactory, since promoted a decrease in certain ranges of temperature required in the process of conversion of hydrocarbons, but also promoted a decrease in energy required in the process. Thus enabling lower costs related to energy expenditure from degradation during processing of the waste

Degradacao termica e catalitica da borra oleosa de Petroleo com materiais nanoestruturados al-mcm-41 e AL-SBA-15

Aiming to reduce and reuse waste oil from oily sludge generated in large volumes by the oil industry, types of nanostructured materials Al-MCM-41 and Al-SBA-15, with ratios of Si / Al = 50, were synthesized , and calcined solids used as catalysts in the degradation of oily sludge thermocatalytic oil from oilfield Canto do Amaro, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. Samples of nanostructured materials were characterized by thermogravimetric analysis (TG / DTG), X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), absorption spectroscopy in the infrared Fourier transform (FT-IR) and adsorption nitrogen (BET). The characterization showed that the synthesized materials resulted in a catalyst nanostructure, and ordered pore diameter and surface area according to existing literature. The oily sludge sample was characterized by determining the API gravity and sulfur content and SARA analysis (saturates, aromatics, resins and asphaltenes). The results showed a material equivalent to the average oil with API gravity of 26.1, a low sulfur content and considerable amount of resins and asphaltenes, presented above in the literature. The thermal and catalytic degradation of the oily sludge oil was performed from room temperature to 870 ° C in the ratios of heating of 5, 10 and 20 ° C min-1. The curves generated by TG / DTG showed a more accelerated degradation of oily sludge when it introduced the nanostructured materials. These results were confirmed by activation energy calculated by the method of Flynn-Wall, in the presence of catalysts reduced energy, in particular in the range of cracking, showing the process efficiency, mainly for extraction of lightweight materials of composition of oily sludge, such as diesel and gasoline

Segurança das condições de aplicação de herbicidas com aerobarco em plantas daninhas aquáticas no lago da Hidrelétrica de Jupiá

Os objetivos deste trabalho foram quantificar as exposições dérmicas (EDs) e respiratórias (ERs) proporcionadas ao piloto e ao seu ajudante nas aplicações de herbicidas para o controle de plantas daninhas aquáticas com aerobarco; classificar essas condições de trabalho em seguras ou inseguras; e calcular a necessidade de controle das exposições (NCE) e o tempo de trabalho seguro (TTS). O aerobarco utilizado tinha casco de alumínio (4,85 x 2,42 m) e acionamento por hélice acoplada a motor a gasolina de 350 HP. O equipamento de pulverização era composto por bomba de diafragma com fluxo máximo de 49,69 L min-1, pressão máxima de 25 kg cm-2, acionada por motor a gasolina de 4 HP, e tanque de calda de 189 L. A barra de pulverização de alumínio era composta de duas seções laterais de 3 m, posicionadas na linha entre o encosto do banco do piloto e o início da estrutura protetora da hélice. Cada seção da barra tinha seis bicos com pontas de jato plano com indução de ar AI 100 03, espaçados de 0,5 m, e uma ponta OC 20 fixada em cada extremidade. O conjunto de pontas pulverizava faixas de 6 m de largura e aplicava o volume de calda de 200 L ha-1. O sistema tinha gerenciador de fluxo, controlado por central eletrônica acoplada a DGPS (com precisão submétrica), para corrigir automaticamente a vazão em função de alterações na velocidade real da embarcação. As EDs e ERs aos herbicidas foram calculadas com os dados substitutos das exposições às caldas, avaliadas com os traçadores cobre e manganês adicionados às caldas. As exposições foram extrapoladas para uma jornada de trabalho de seis horas. A segurança das condições de trabalho foi determinada com o cálculo da margem de segurança (MS), utilizando-se a fórmula MS = (NOEL x 70)/(QAE x 10), em que QAE = quantidade absorvível da exposição. As condições de trabalho foram classificadas em seguras, se MS>1, ou inseguras, se MS<1. As exposições proporcionadas pelas condições de trabalho foram de 10,65 mL de calda por dia para o piloto e de 16,80 mL por dia para o ajudante, que fica sentado em uma cadeira a 2,0 m à frente do piloto e da barra de pulverização. Classificaram-se como seguras as aplicações dos herbicidas glyphosate (Rodeo, 6 L ha-1), 2,4D (DMA 806 BR, 8 L ha-1) e fluridone (Sonar AQ, 0,4 L ha-1), para o piloto e o seu ajudante. Classificou-se como insegura a aplicação do herbicida diquat (Reward, 4,0 L ha-1) para as duas condições de trabalho, cujas necessidades de controle das exposições calculadas foram de 65% para o piloto e de 78% para o ajudante do piloto.

Um Estudo de Politicas e Práticas do uso do GNV no transporte público urbano do Brasil

The use of Natural Gas Vehicle has had a fast increase lately. However, in order to have a continuous success this Program needs to develop converting devices of Otto-cycle engines, gasoline or alcohol, to the use of NGV (Natural Gas Vehicle) that presents low cost, maintaining the same original development of the vehicle and low level of emissions, considering the PROCONVE rules. Due to the need to diversify the matrix in order to avoid energetic dependence and due to strict pollution control, it has increased in the Brazilian market the number of vehicles converted to the use of NGV. The recent regulation of the PROCONVE, determining that the converted engines with kits should be submitted to emission testing, comes to reinforce the necessity of the proposed development. Therefore, if we can obtain kits with the characteristics already described, we can reach a major trust in the market and obtain an increase acceptance of the vehicle conversion for NGV. The use of natural gas as vehicle fuel presents several advantages in relation to liquid fuels. It is a vehicle fuel with fewer indexes of emissions when compared to diesel; their combustion gases are less harmful, with a major level of safety than liquid fuels and the market price is quite competitive. The preoccupation that emerges, and the motivation of this project, is to know which are the main justifications for such technology, well accepted in other countries, with a low index or emission, with a high level of safety, where its maintenance becomes low, reminding that for this it is necessary that this technology has to be used properly, and once available in the market will not motivate interest in the urban transportation companies in Brazil, in research centers in general. Therefore this project exists to show the society in a general way the current vision of the main governmental factors, of the national research centers and of the private companies concerning the use of natural gas vehicles in urban transport vehicles, in order to give a major reliability to the population as well as to motivate national market competitiveness with a low cost and reliable product and to enrich the national technology

Análise estatística das emissões de CO e HC produzidas por gases da exaustão veicular oriundos de gasolina, GNV e mistura álcool/gasolina

The vehicles are the main mobile sources of carbon monoxide (CO) and unburned hydrocarbons (HC) released into the atmosphere. In the last years the increment of the fleet of vehicles in the municipal district of Natal-RN it is contributing to the increase of the emissions of those pollutants. The study consisted of a statistical analysis of the emissions of CO and HC of a composed sample for 384 vehicles with mechanization Gasoline/CNG or Alcohol/Gasoline/CNG of the municipal district of Natal-RN. The tests were accomplished in vehicles submitted to Vehicular Safety's Inspection, in the facilities of INSPETRANS, Organism of Vehicular Inspection. An partial gases analyzer allowed to measure, for each vehicle, the levels of CO and HC in two conditions of rotation of the motor (900 and 2500 rpm). The statistical analysis accomplished through the STATISTICA software revealed a sensitive reduction in the efficiency of the converters catalytic after 6 years of use with emission average it is of 0,78% of CO and 156 (ppm) of HC, Which represents approximately 4 (four) times the amount of CO and the double of HC in comparison with the newest vehicles. The result of a Student s t-test, suggests strongly that the average of the emissions of HC (152 ppm), at 900 rpm, is 40% larger than at 2500 rpm, for the motor without load. This result reveals that the efficiency of the catalytic conversion is limited kinetically in low engine speeds. The Study also ends that when comparing the emissions of CO and HC considering the influence of the fuels, it was verified that although the emissions of CO starting from CNG are 62% smaller than arising from the gasoline, there are not significant differences among the emissions of HC originating from of CNG and of the gasoline. In synthesis, the results place the current criteria of vehicular inspection, for exhaust gases, in doubt, leading the creation of emission limits of pollutant more rigorous, because the efficiency of the converters catalytic is sensibly reduced starting from 6 years of use. It is also raised the possibility of modifications in the test conditions adopted by the current norms, specifically in the speed engine, have seen that in the condition without load the largest emission indexes were registered in slow march. That fact that allows to suggest the dismissal of the tests in high speed engine, reducing the time of inspection in half and generating economy of fuel