Results of n-alkane biomarker analyses and paleoclimate reconstruction

The current study presents quantitative reconstructions of tree cover, annual precipitation and mean July temperature derived from the pollen record from Lake Billyakh (65°17'N, 126°47'E, 340 m above sea level) spanning the last ca. 50 kyr. The reconstruction of tree cover suggests presence of woody plants through the entire analyzed time interval, although trees played only a minor role in the vegetation around Lake Billyakh prior to 14 kyr BP (<5%). This result corroborates low percentages of tree pollen and low scores of the cold deciduous forest biome in the PG1755 record from Lake Billyakh. The reconstructed values of the mean temperature of the warmest month ~8-10 °C do not support larch forest or woodland around Lake Billyakh during the coldest phase of the last glacial between ~32 and ~15 kyr BP. However, modern cases from northern Siberia, ca. 750 km north of Lake Billyakh, demonstrate that individual larch plants can grow within shrub and grass tundra landscape in very low mean July temperatures of about 8 °C. This makes plausible our hypothesis that the western and southern foreland of the Verkhoyansk Mountains could provide enough moist and warm microhabitats and allow individual larch specimens to survive climatic extremes of the last glacial. Reconstructed mean values of precipitation are about 270 mm/yr during the last glacial interval. This value is almost 100 mm higher than modern averages reported for the extreme-continental north-eastern Siberia east of Lake Billyakh, where larch-dominated cold deciduous forest grows at present. This suggests that last glacial environments around Lake Billyakh were never too dry for larch to grow and that the summer warmth was the main factor, which limited tree growth during the last glacial interval. The n-alkane analysis of the Siberian plants presented in this study demonstrates rather complex alkane distribution patterns, which challenge the interpretation of the fossil records. In particular, extremely low n-alkane concentrations in the leaves of local coniferous trees and shrubs suggest that their contribution to the litter and therefore to the fossil lake sediments might be not high enough for tracing the Quaternary history of the needleleaved taxa using the n-alkane biomarker method.

Employment rate impacts of charging the Heavy Good Vehicle corridor (Madrid-Sevilla) across Spanish regions: a Random Utility Based Multiregional Input-Output approach

The implementation of a charging policy for heavy goods vehicles in European Union (EU) member countries has been imposed to reflect costs of construction and maintenance of infrastructure as well as externalities such as congestion, accidents and environmental impact. In this context, EU countries approved the Eurovignette directive (1999/62/EC) and its amending directive (2006 /38/EC) which established a legal framework to regulate the system of tolls. Even if that regulation seek s to increase the efficien cy of freight, it will trigger direct and indirect effects on Spain’s regional economies by increasing transport costs. This paper presents the development of a multiregional Input-Output methodology (MRIO) with elastic trade coefficients to predict in terregional trade, using transport attributes integrated in multinomial logit models. This method is highly useful to carry out an ex-ante evaluation of transport policies because it involves road freight transport cost sensitivity, and determine regional distributive and substitution economic effect s of countries like Spain, characterized by socio-demographic and economic attributes, differentiated region by region. It will thus be possible to determine cost-effective strategies, given different policy scenarios. MRIO mode l would then be used to determine the impact on the employment rate of imposing a charge in the Madrid-Sevilla corridor in Spain. This methodology is important for measuring the impact on the employment rate since it is one of the main macroeconomic indicators of Spain’s regional and national economic situation. A previous research developed (DESTINO) using a MRIO method estimated employment impacts of road pricing policy across Spanish regions considering a fuel tax charge (€/liter) in the entire shortest cost path network for freight transport. Actually, it found that the variation in employment is expected to be substantial for some regions, and negligible for others. For example, in this Spanish case study of regional employment has showed reductions between 16.1% (Rioja) and 1.4% (Madrid region). This variation range seems to be related to either the intensity of freight transport in each region or dependency of regions to transport intensive economic sect ors. In fact, regions with freight transport intensive sectors will lose more jobs while regions with a predominantly service economy undergo a fairly insignificant loss of employment. This paper is focused on evaluating a freight transport vehicle-kilometer charge (€/km) in a non-tolled motorway corridor (A-4) between Madrid-Sevilla (517 Km.). The consequences of the road pricing policy implementation show s that the employment reductions are not as high as the diminution stated in the previous research because this corridor does not affect the whole freight transport system of Spain.

Orthogonal MCMC algorithms

Monte Carlo (MC) methods are widely used in signal processing, machine learning and stochastic optimization. A well-known class of MC methods are Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In this work, we introduce a novel parallel interacting MCMC scheme, where the parallel chains share information using another MCMC technique working on the entire population of current states. These parallel ?vertical? chains are led by random-walk proposals, whereas the ?horizontal? MCMC uses a independent proposal, which can be easily adapted by making use of all the generated samples. Numerical results show the advantages of the proposed sampling scheme in terms of mean absolute error, as well as robustness w.r.t. to initial values and parameter choice.