Creation of a web application for smart park system and parking prediction study for system integration

In the last few years, we have observed an exponential increasing of the information systems, and parking information is one more example of them. The needs of obtaining reliable and updated information of parking slots availability are very important in the goal of traffic reduction. Also parking slot prediction is a new topic that has already started to be applied. San Francisco in America and Santander in Spain are examples of such projects carried out to obtain this kind of information. The aim of this thesis is the study and evaluation of methodologies for parking slot prediction and the integration in a web application, where all kind of users will be able to know the current parking status and also future status according to parking model predictions. The source of the data is ancillary in this work but it needs to be understood anyway to understand the parking behaviour. Actually, there are many modelling techniques used for this purpose such as time series analysis, decision trees, neural networks and clustering. In this work, the author explains the best techniques at this work, analyzes the result and points out the advantages and disadvantages of each one. The model will learn the periodic and seasonal patterns of the parking status behaviour, and with this knowledge it can predict future status values given a date. The data used comes from the Smart Park Ontinyent and it is about parking occupancy status together with timestamps and it is stored in a database. After data acquisition, data analysis and pre-processing was needed for model implementations. The first test done was with the boosting ensemble classifier, employed over a set of decision trees, created with C5.0 algorithm from a set of training samples, to assign a prediction value to each object. In addition to the predictions, this work has got measurements error that indicates the reliability of the outcome predictions being correct. The second test was done using the function fitting seasonal exponential smoothing tbats model. Finally as the last test, it has been tried a model that is actually a combination of the previous two models, just to see the result of this combination. The results were quite good for all of them, having error averages of 6.2, 6.6 and 5.4 in vacancies predictions for the three models respectively. This means from a parking of 47 places a 10% average error in parking slot predictions. This result could be even better with longer data available. In order to make this kind of information visible and reachable from everyone having a device with internet connection, a web application was made for this purpose. Beside the data displaying, this application also offers different functions to improve the task of searching for parking. The new functions, apart from parking prediction, were: - Park distances from user location. It provides all the distances to user current location to the different parks in the city. - Geocoding. The service for matching a literal description or an address to a concrete location. - Geolocation. The service for positioning the user. - Parking list panel. This is not a service neither a function, is just a better visualization and better handling of the information.

Specification and testing of multiplicative time-varying GARCH models with applications

In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smoothly over time. This nonstationary component is defined as a linear combination of logistic transition functions with time as the transition variable. The appropriate number of transition functions is determined by a sequence of specification tests. For that purpose, a coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. It is heavily dependent on Lagrange multiplier type misspecification tests. The tests are easily implemented as they are entirely based on auxiliary regressions. Finite-sample properties of the strategy and tests are examined by simulation. The modelling strategy is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns.

Non-classical error bounds in the central limit theorem

The classical central limit theorem states the uniform convergence of the distribution functions of the standardized sums of independent and identically distributed square integrable real-valued random variables to the standard normal distribution function. While first versions of the central limit theorem are already due to Moivre (1730) and Laplace (1812), a systematic study of this topic started at the beginning of the last century with the fundamental work of Lyapunov (1900, 1901). Meanwhile, extensions of the central limit theorem are available for a multitude of settings. This includes, e.g., Banach space valued random variables as well as substantial relaxations of the assumptions of independence and identical distributions. Furthermore, explicit error bounds are established and asymptotic expansions are employed to obtain better approximations. Classical error estimates like the famous bound of Berry and Esseen are stated in terms of absolute moments of the random summands and therefore do not reflect a potential closeness of the distributions of the single random summands to a normal distribution. Non-classical approaches take this issue into account by providing error estimates based on, e.g., pseudomoments. The latter field of investigation was initiated by work of Zolotarev in the 1960's and is still in its infancy compared to the development of the classical theory. For example, non-classical error bounds for asymptotic expansions seem not to be available up to now ...

A Model-to-model analysis of the repeated Prisoners' Dilemma: genetic algorithms vs. evolutionary dynamics

We study the properties of the well known Replicator Dynamics when applied to a finitely repeated version of the Prisoners' Dilemma game. We characterize the behavior of such dynamics under strongly simplifying assumptions (i.e. only 3 strategies are available) and show that the basin of attraction of defection shrinks as the number of repetitions increases. After discussing the difficulties involved in trying to relax the 'strongly simplifying assumptions' above, we approach the same model by means of simulations based on genetic algorithms. The resulting simulations describe a behavior of the system very close to the one predicted by the replicator dynamics without imposing any of the assumptions of the analytical model. Our main conclusion is that analytical and computational models are good complements for research in social sciences. Indeed, while on the one hand computational models are extremely useful to extend the scope of the analysis to complex scenar

A New Test of the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis: Bounds Approach and Structural Breaks

We test the real interest rate parity hypothesis using data for the G7 countries over the period 1970-2008. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we utilize the ARDL bounds approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) which allows us to overcome uncertainty about the order of integration of real interest rates. Second, we test for structural breaks in the underlying relationship using the multiple structural breaks test of Bai and Perron (1998, 2003). Our results indicate significant parameter instability and suggest that, despite the advances in economic and financial integration, real interest rate parity has not fully recovered from a breakdown in the 1980s.

An axiomatization of difference-form contest success functions

This paper presents an axiomatic characterization of difference-form group contests, that is, contests fought among groups and where their probability of victory depends on the difference of their effective efforts. This axiomatization rests on the property of Equalizing Consistency, stating that the difference between winning probabilities in the grand contest and in the smaller contest should be identical across all participants in the smaller contest. This property overcomes some of the drawbacks of the widely-used ratio-form contest success functions. Our characterization shows that the criticisms commonly-held against difference-form contests success functions, such as lack of scale invariance and zero elasticity of augmentation, are unfounded.By clarifying the properties of this family of contest success functions, this axiomatization can help researchers to find the functional form better suited to their application of interest.

Schistosoma mansoni: reinfections and concomitant immunity in mice: importance of perfusion time after challenge infection for evaluation of immunoprotection

The concomitant immunity in the presence of repeated infections (with 15 cercariae) was studied in mice sacrificed on the 20th day after each infection. The comparison of the averages of immature worms, recovered from mice submitted to reinfection, with those of their respective controls (previously uninfected) showed a significantly lower worm recovery rate in the animals with previous infections (concomitant immunity). However, statiscally significant differences could not be detected among the various groups of animals, when the mice that accumulated worms in this mature stage were perfused. The theoretical projection based on the accumulation of young worms which developed to adult ones indicates a lower recovery rate of adult worms in the animals with concomitant immunity, but this projection was not corroborated by the experimental data. The visceral hemodynamic alterations that occurred in reinfections due to the pathogeny, favouring recirculation of the recent arriving worms to the other organs on the occasion of perfusion of the portal system. These results suggest that special care should be taken when one wants to investigate concomitant immunity in mice based on the distinction of the immature worms from challenge infection and the mature ones from primary infection.

Complementarities between mathematical and computational modeling: the case of the repeated Prisoners' Dilemma

We study the properties of the well known Replicator Dynamics when applied to a finitely repeated version of the Prisoners' Dilemma game. We characterize the behavior of such dynamics under strongly simplifying assumptions (i.e. only 3 strategies are available) and show that the basin of attraction of defection shrinks as the number of repetitions increases. After discussing the difficulties involved in trying to relax the 'strongly simplifying assumptions' above, we approach the same model by means of simulations based on genetic algorithms. The resulting simulations describe a behavior of the system very close to the one predicted by the replicator dynamics without imposing any of the assumptions of the mathematical model. Our main conclusion is that mathematical and computational models are good complements for research in social sciences. Indeed, while computational models are extremely useful to extend the scope of the analysis to complex scenarios hard to analyze mathematically, formal models can be useful to verify and to explain the outcomes of computational models.

Visual representation of food in the brain : effects of repeated exposure and gut hormone secretion

The thesis at hand is concerned with the spatio-temporal brain mechanisms of visual food perception as investigated by electrical neuroimaging. Due to the increasing prevalence of obesity and its associated challenges for public health care, there is a need to better understand behavioral and brain processes underlying food perception and food-based decision-making. The first study (Study A) of this thesis was concerned with the role of repeated exposure to visual food cues. In our everyday lives we constantly and repeatedly encounter food and these exposures influence our food choices and preferences. In Study A, we therefore applied electrical neuroimaging analyses of visual evoked potentials to investigate the spatio-temporal brain dynamics linked to the repeated viewing of high- and low-energy food cues (published manuscript: "The role of energetic value in dynamic brain response adaptation during repeated food image viewing" (Lietti et al., 2012)). In this study, we found that repetitions differentially affect behavioral and brain mechanisms when high-energy, as opposed to low-energy foods and non-food control objects, were viewed. The representation of high-energy food remained invariant between initial and repeated exposures indicating that the sight of high-energy dense food induces less behavioral and neural adaptation than the sight of low-energy food and non-food control objects. We discuss this finding in the context of the higher salience (due to greater motivation and higher reward or hedonic valuation) of energy- dense food that likely generates a more mnemonically stable representation. In turn, this more invariant representation of energy-dense food is supposed to (partially) explain why these foods are over-consumed despite of detrimental health consequences. In Study Β we investigated food responsiveness in patients who had undergone Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery to overcome excessive obesity. This type of gastric bypass surgery is not only known to alter food appreciation, but also the secretion patterns of adipokines and gut peptides. Study Β aimed at a comprehensive and interdisciplinary investigation of differences along the gut-brain axis in bypass-operated patients as opposed to weight-matched non-operated controls. On the one hand, the spatio-temporal brain dynamics to the visual perception of high- vs. low-energy foods under differing states of motivation towards food intake (i.e. pre- and post-prandial) were assessed and compared between groups. On the other hand, peripheral gut hormone measures were taken in pre- and post-prandial nutrition state and compared between groups. In order to evaluate alterations in the responsiveness along the gut-brain-axis related to gastric bypass surgery, correlations between both measures were compared between both participant groups. The results revealed that Roux-en- Y gastric bypass surgery alters the spatio-temporal brain dynamics to the perception of high- and low-energy food cues, as well as the responsiveness along the gut-brain-axis. The potential role of these response alterations is discussed in relation to previously observed changes in physiological factors and food intake behavior post-Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery. By doing so, we highlight potential behavioral, neural and endocrine (i.e. gut hormone) targets for the future development of intervention strategies for deviant eating behavior and obesity. Together, the studies showed that the visual representation of foods in the brain is plastic and that modulations in neural activity are already noted at early stages of visual processing. Different factors of influence such as a repeated exposure, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery, motivation (nutrition state), as well as the energy density of the visually perceived food were identified. En raison de la prévalence croissante de l'obésité et du défi que cela représente en matière de santé publique, une meilleure compréhension des processus comportementaux et cérébraux liés à la nourriture sont nécessaires. En particulier, cette thèse se concentre sur l'investigation des mécanismes cérébraux spatio-temporels liés à la perception visuelle de la nourriture. Nous sommes quotidiennement et répétitivement exposés à des images de nourriture. Ces expositions répétées influencent nos choix, ainsi que nos préférences alimentaires. La première étude (Study A) de cette thèse investigue donc l'impact de ces exposition répétée à des stimuli visuels de nourriture. En particulier, nous avons comparé la dynamique spatio-temporelle de l'activité cérébrale induite par une exposition répétée à des images de nourriture de haute densité et de basse densité énergétique. (Manuscrit publié: "The role of energetic value in dynamic brain response adaptation during repeated food image viewing" (Lietti et al., 2012)). Dans cette étude, nous avons pu constater qu'une exposition répétée à des images représentant de la nourriture de haute densité énergétique, par opposition à de la nourriture de basse densité énergétique, affecte les mécanismes comportementaux et cérébraux de manière différente. En particulier, la représentation neurale des images de nourriture de haute densité énergétique est similaire lors de l'exposition initiale que lors de l'exposition répétée. Ceci indique que la perception d'images de nourriture de haute densité énergétique induit des adaptations comportementales et neurales de moindre ampleur par rapport à la perception d'images de nourriture de basse densité énergétique ou à la perception d'une « catégorie contrôle » d'objets qui ne sont pas de la nourriture. Notre discussion est orientée sur les notions prépondérantes de récompense et de motivation qui sont associées à la nourriture de haute densité énergétique. Nous suggérons que la nourriture de haute densité énergétique génère une représentation mémorielle plus stable et que ce mécanisme pourrait (partiellement) être sous-jacent au fait que la nourriture de haute densité énergétique soit préférentiellement consommée. Dans la deuxième étude (Study Β) menée au cours de cette thèse, nous nous sommes intéressés aux mécanismes de perception de la nourriture chez des patients ayant subi un bypass gastrique Roux- en-Y, afin de réussir à perdre du poids et améliorer leur santé. Ce type de chirurgie est connu pour altérer la perception de la nourriture et le comportement alimentaire, mais également la sécrétion d'adipokines et de peptides gastriques. Dans une approche interdisciplinaire et globale, cette deuxième étude investigue donc les différences entre les patients opérés et des individus « contrôles » de poids similaire au niveau des interactions entre leur activité cérébrale et les mesures de leurs hormones gastriques. D'un côté, nous avons investigué la dynamique spatio-temporelle cérébrale de la perception visuelle de nourriture de haute et de basse densité énergétique dans deux états physiologiques différent (pre- et post-prandial). Et de l'autre, nous avons également investigué les mesures physiologiques des hormones gastriques. Ensuite, afin d'évaluer les altérations liées à l'intervention chirurgicale au niveau des interactions entre la réponse cérébrale et la sécrétion d'hormone, des corrélations entre ces deux mesures ont été comparées entre les deux groupes. Les résultats révèlent que l'intervention chirurgicale du bypass gastrique Roux-en-Y altère la dynamique spatio-temporelle de la perception visuelle de la nourriture de haute et de basse densité énergétique, ainsi que les interactions entre cette dernière et les mesures périphériques des hormones gastriques. Nous discutons le rôle potentiel de ces altérations en relation avec les modulations des facteurs physiologiques et les changements du comportement alimentaire préalablement déjà démontrés. De cette manière, nous identifions des cibles potentielles pour le développement de stratégies d'intervention future, au niveau comportemental, cérébral et endocrinien (hormones gastriques) en ce qui concerne les déviances du comportement alimentaire, dont l'obésité. Nos deux études réunies démontrent que la représentation visuelle de la nourriture dans le cerveau est plastique et que des modulations de l'activité neurale apparaissent déjà à un stade très précoce des mécanismes de perception visuelle. Différents facteurs d'influence comme une exposition repetee, le bypass gastrique Roux-en-Y, la motivation (état nutritionnel), ainsi que la densité énergétique de la nourriture qui est perçue ont pu être identifiés.

Advantages of digital holographic microscopy for real-time full field absolute phase imaging

Different interferometric techniques were developed last decade to obtain full field, quantitative, and absolute phase imaging, such as phase-shifting, Fourier phase microscopy, Hilbert phase microscopy or digital holographic microscopy (DHM). Although, these techniques are very similar, DHM combines several advantages. In contrast, to phase shifting, DHM is indeed capable of single-shot hologram recording allowing a real-time absolute phase imaging. On the other hand, unlike to Fourier phase or Hilbert phase microscopy, DHM does not require to record in focus images of the specimen on the digital detector (CCD or CMOS camera), because a numerical focalization adjustment can be performed by a numerical wavefront propagation. Consequently, the depth of view of high NA microscope objectives is numerically extended. For example, two different biological cells, floating at different depths in a liquid, can be focalized numerically from the same digital hologram. Moreover, the numerical propagation associated to digital optics and automatic fitting procedures, permits vibrations insensitive full- field phase imaging and the complete compensation for a priori any image distortion or/and phase aberrations introduced for example by imperfections of holders or perfusion chamber. Examples of real-time full-field phase images of biological cells have been demonstrated. ©2008 COPYRIGHT SPIE

Preparation of bacterial DNA template by boiling and effect of immunoglobulin G as an inhibitor in real-time PCR for serum samples from patients with brucellosis.

Real-time PCR is a widely used tool for the diagnosis of many infectious diseases. However, little information exists about the influences of the different factors involved in PCR on the amplification efficiency. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of boiling as the DNA preparation method on the efficiency of the amplification process of real-time PCR for the diagnosis of human brucellosis with serum samples. Serum samples from 10 brucellosis patients were analyzed by a SYBR green I LightCycler-based real-time PCR and by using boiling to obtain the DNA. DNA prepared by boiling lysis of the bacteria isolated from serum did not prevent the presence of inhibitors, such as immunoglobulin G (IgG), which were extracted with the template DNA. To identify and confirm the presence of IgG, serum was precipitated to separate and concentrate the IgG and was analyzed by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and Western blotting. The use of serum volumes above 0.6 ml completely inhibited the amplification process. The inhibitory effect of IgG in serum samples was not concentration dependent, and it could be eliminated by diluting the samples 1/10 and 1/20 in water. Despite the lack of the complete elimination of the IgG from the template DNA, boiling does not require any special equipment and it provides a rapid, reproducible, and cost-effective method for the preparation of DNA from serum samples for the diagnosis of brucellosis.

Gap probabilities for the cardinal sine

We study the zero set of random analytic functions generated by a sum of the cardinal sine functions which form an orthogonal basis for the Paley-Wiener space. As a model case, we consider real-valued Gaussian coefficients. It is shown that the asymptotic probability that there is no zero in a bounded interval decays exponentially as a function of the length.

Assessment of airborne microorganisms by real-time PCR: optimistic findings and research challenges

Most airborne microorganisms are natural components of our ecosystem. Soil, vegetation and animals, including humans, are sources for aerial release of these living or dead cells. In the past, assessment of airborne microorganisms was mainly restricted to occupational health concerns. Indeed, in several occupations, exposure to very high concentrations of non-infectious airborne bacteria and fungi, result in allergenic, toxic or irritant reactions. Recently, the threat of bioterrorism and pandemics have highlighted the urgent need to increase knowledge of bioaerosol ecology. More fundamentally, airborne bacterial and fungal communities begin to draw much more consideration from environmental microbiologists, who have neglected this area for a long time. This increased interest of scientists is to a great part due to the development and use of real-time PCR techniques to identify and quantify airborne microorganisms. Even if the advantages of the PCR technology are obvious, researchers are confronted with new problems. This review describes the methodological state of the art in bioaerosols field and emphasizes the future challenges and perspectives of the real-time PCR-based methods for airborne microorganism studies.

The role of energetic value in dynamic brain response adaptation during repeated food image viewing.

The repeated presentation of simple objects as well as biologically salient objects can cause the adaptation of behavioral and neural responses during the visual categorization of these objects. Mechanisms of response adaptation during repeated food viewing are of particular interest for better understanding food intake beyond energetic needs. Here, we measured visual evoked potentials (VEPs) and conducted neural source estimations to initial and repeated presentations of high-energy and low-energy foods as well as non-food images. The results of our study show that the behavioral and neural responses to food and food-related objects are not uniformly affected by repetition. While the repetition of images displaying low-energy foods and non-food modulated VEPs as well as their underlying neural sources and increased behavioral categorization accuracy, the responses to high-energy images remained largely invariant between initial and repeated encounters. Brain mechanisms when viewing images of high-energy foods thus appear less susceptible to repetition effects than responses to low-energy and non-food images. This finding is likely related to the superior reward value of high-energy foods and might be one reason why in particular high-energetic foods are indulged although potentially leading to detrimental health consequences.

Estimation of inelastic seismic material properties of a surgical sea-bed from multi-component marine seismic data

To date, state-of-the-art seismic material parameter estimates from multi-component sea-bed seismic data are based on the assumption that the sea-bed consists of a fully elastic half-space. In reality, however, the shallow sea-bed generally consists of soft, unconsolidated sediments that are characterized by strong to very strong seismic attenuation. To explore the potential implications, we apply a state-of-the-art elastic decomposition algorithm to synthetic data for a range of canonical sea-bed models consisting of a viscoelastic half-space of varying attenuation. We find that in the presence of strong seismic attenuation, as quantified by Q-values of 10 or less, significant errors arise in the conventional elastic estimation of seismic properties. Tests on synthetic data indicate that these errors can be largely avoided by accounting for the inherent attenuation of the seafloor when estimating the seismic parameters. This can be achieved by replacing the real-valued expressions for the elastic moduli in the governing equations in the parameter estimation by their complex-valued viscoelastic equivalents. The practical application of our parameter procedure yields realistic estimates of the elastic seismic material properties of the shallow sea-bed, while the corresponding Q-estimates seem to be biased towards too low values, particularly for S-waves. Given that the estimation of inelastic material parameters is notoriously difficult, particularly in the immediate vicinity of the sea-bed, this is expected to be of interest and importance for civil and ocean engineering purposes.