Intelligence systems methodology: a systemic approach to the organizational intelligence function

Organizational intelligence can be seen as a function of the viable structure of an organization. With the integration of the Viable System Model and Soft Systems Methodology (systemic approaches of organizational management) focused on the role of the intelligence function, it is possible to elaborate a model of action with a structured methodology to prospect, select, treat and distribute information to the entire organization that improves the efficacy and efficiency of all processes. This combination of methodologies is called Intelligence Systems Methodology (ISM) whose assumptions and dynamics are delimited in this paper. The ISM is composed of two simultaneous activities: the Active Environmental Mapping and the Stimulated Action Cycle. The elaboration of the formal ISM description opens opportunities for applications of the methodology on real situations, offering a new path for this specific issue of systems thinking: the intelligence systems. Knowledge Management Research & Practice (2012) 10, 141-152. doi:10.1057/kmrp.2011.44

Global and Regional Ventricular Repolarization Study by Body Surface Potential Mapping in Patients with Left Bundle-Branch Block and Heart Failure Undergoing Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy

Background: The controversial effects promoted by cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) on the ventricular repolarization (VR) have motivated VR evaluation by body surface potential mapping (BSPM) in CRT patients. Methods: Fifty-two CRT patients, mean age 58.8 +/- 12.3 years, 31 male, LVEF 27.5 +/- 9.2, NYHA III-IV heart failure with QRS181.5 +/- 14.2 ms, underwent 87-lead BSPM in sinus rhythm (BASELINE) and biventricular pacing (BIV). Measurements of mean and corrected QT intervals and dispersion, mean and corrected T peak end intervals and their dispersion, and JT intervals characterized global and regional (RV, Intermediate, and LV regions) ventricular repolarization response. Results: Global QTm (P < 0.001) and QTcm (P < 0.05) were decreased in BIV; QTm was similar across regions in both modes (P = ns); QTcm values were lower in RV/LV than in Intermediate region in BASELINE and BIV (P < 0.001); only RV/Septum showed a significant difference (P < 0.01) in the BIV mode. QTD values both of BASELINE (P < 0.01) and BIV (P < 0.001) were greater in the Intermediate than in the LV region. CRT effect significantly reduced global/regional QTm and QTcm values. QTD was globally decreased in RV/LV (Intermediate: P = ns). BIV mode significantly reduced global T peak end mean and corrected intervals and their dispersion. JT values were not significant. Conclusions: Ventricular repolarization parameters QTm, QTcm, and QTD global/regional values, as assessed by BSPM, were reduced in patients under CRT with severe HF and LBBB. Greater recovery impairment in the Intermediate region was detected by the smaller variation of its dispersion.

A regional multirnodulus algorithm for blind equalization of QAM signals: Introduction and steady-state analysis

It is well known that constant-modulus-based algorithms present a large mean-square error for high-order quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) signals, which may damage the switching to decision-directed-based algorithms. In this paper, we introduce a regional multimodulus algorithm for blind equalization of QAM signals that performs similar to the supervised normalized least-mean-squares (NLMS) algorithm, independently of the QAM order. We find a theoretical relation between the coefficient vector of the proposed algorithm and the Wiener solution and also provide theoretical models for the steady-state excess mean-square error in a nonstationary environment. The proposed algorithm in conjunction with strategies to speed up its convergence and to avoid divergence can bypass the switching mechanism between the blind mode and the decision-directed mode. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assimilation of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite data in a regional numerical weather prediction model using a one-dimensional variational approach

The quality of temperature and humidity retrievals from the infrared SEVIRI sensors on the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites is assessed by means of a one dimensional variational algorithm. The study is performed with the aim of improving the spatial and temporal resolution of available observations to feed analysis systems designed for high resolution regional scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The non-hydrostatic forecast model COSMO (COnsortium for Small scale MOdelling) in the ARPA-SIM operational configuration is used to provide background fields. Only clear sky observations over sea are processed. An optimised 1D–VAR set-up comprising of the two water vapour and the three window channels is selected. It maximises the reduction of errors in the model backgrounds while ensuring ease of operational implementation through accurate bias correction procedures and correct radiative transfer simulations. The 1D–VAR retrieval quality is firstly quantified in relative terms employing statistics to estimate the reduction in the background model errors. Additionally the absolute retrieval accuracy is assessed comparing the analysis with independent radiosonde and satellite observations. The inclusion of satellite data brings a substantial reduction in the warm and dry biases present in the forecast model. Moreover it is shown that the retrieval profiles generated by the 1D–VAR are well correlated with the radiosonde measurements. Subsequently the 1D–VAR technique is applied to two three–dimensional case–studies: a false alarm case–study occurred in Friuli–Venezia–Giulia on the 8th of July 2004 and a heavy precipitation case occurred in Emilia–Romagna region between 9th and 12th of April 2005. The impact of satellite data for these two events is evaluated in terms of increments in the integrated water vapour and saturation water vapour over the column, in the 2 meters temperature and specific humidity and in the surface temperature. To improve the 1D–VAR technique a method to calculate flow–dependent model error covariance matrices is also assessed. The approach employs members from an ensemble forecast system generated by perturbing physical parameterisation schemes inside the model. The improved set–up applied to the case of 8th of July 2004 shows a substantial neutral impact.

Filiera corta: percorsi di innovazione tecnici, organizzativi e sociali nella gestione strategica delle nicchie. Esperienze in Toscana e in Provenza

There is a widening consensus around the fact that, in many developed countries, food production-consumption patterns are in recent years interested by a process of deep change towards diversification and re-localisation practices, as a counter-tendency to the trend to the increasing disconnection between farming and food, producers and consumers. The relevance of these initiatives doesn't certainly lie on their economic dimension, but rather in their intense diffusion and growth rate, their spontaneous and autonomous nature and, especially, their intrinsic innovative potential. These dynamics involve a wide range of actors around local food patterns, embedding short food supply chains initiatives within a more complex and wider process of rural development, based on principles of sustainability, multifunctionality and valorisation of endogenous resources. In this work we have been analysing these features through a multi-level perspective, with reference to the dynamics between niche and regime and the inherent characteristics of the innovation paths. We apply this approach, through a qualitative methodology, to the analysis of the experience of farmers’ markets and Solidarity-Based Consumers Groups (Gruppi di Acquisto Solidale) ongoing in Tuscany, seeking to highlight the dynamics that are affecting the establishment of this alternative food production-consumption model (and its related innovative potential) from within and from without. To verify if and in which conditions they can constitute a niche, a protected space where radical innovations can develop, we make reference to the three interrelated analytic dimensions of socio-technical systems: the actors (i.e. individuals. social groups, organisations), the rules and institutions system, and the artefacts (i.e. the material and immaterial contexts in which the actors move). Through it, we analyse the innovative potential of niches and the level of their structuration and , then, the mechanisms of system transition, focusing on the new dynamics within the niche and between the niche and the policy regime emerging after the growth of interest by mass-media and public institutions and their direct involvement in the initiatives. Following the development of these significant experiences, we explore more deeply social, economic, cultural, political and organisational factors affecting innovations in face-to-face interactions, underpinning the critical aspects (sharing of alternative values, coherence at individual choices level, frictions on organisational aspects, inclusion/exclusion, attitudes towards integration at territorial level), towards uncovering until to the emergence of tensions and the risks of opportunistic behaviours that might arise from their growth. Finally, a comparison with similar experiences abroad is drawn (specifically with Provence), in order to detect food for thought, potentially useful for leading regional initiativestowards transition path.

Development of Clinical Decision Support Systems based on Mathematical Models of Physiological Systems

In the last years of research, I focused my studies on different physiological problems. Together with my supervisors, I developed/improved different mathematical models in order to create valid tools useful for a better understanding of important clinical issues. The aim of all this work is to develop tools for learning and understanding cardiac and cerebrovascular physiology as well as pathology, generating research questions and developing clinical decision support systems useful for intensive care unit patients. I. ICP-model Designed for Medical Education We developed a comprehensive cerebral blood flow and intracranial pressure model to simulate and study the complex interactions in cerebrovascular dynamics caused by multiple simultaneous alterations, including normal and abnormal functional states of auto-regulation of the brain. Individual published equations (derived from prior animal and human studies) were implemented into a comprehensive simulation program. Included in the normal physiological modelling was: intracranial pressure, cerebral blood flow, blood pressure, and carbon dioxide (CO2) partial pressure. We also added external and pathological perturbations, such as head up position and intracranial haemorrhage. The model performed clinically realistically given inputs of published traumatized patients, and cases encountered by clinicians. The pulsatile nature of the output graphics was easy for clinicians to interpret. The manoeuvres simulated include changes of basic physiological inputs (e.g. blood pressure, central venous pressure, CO2 tension, head up position, and respiratory effects on vascular pressures) as well as pathological inputs (e.g. acute intracranial bleeding, and obstruction of cerebrospinal outflow). Based on the results, we believe the model would be useful to teach complex relationships of brain haemodynamics and study clinical research questions such as the optimal head-up position, the effects of intracranial haemorrhage on cerebral haemodynamics, as well as the best CO2 concentration to reach the optimal compromise between intracranial pressure and perfusion. We believe this model would be useful for both beginners and advanced learners. It could be used by practicing clinicians to model individual patients (entering the effects of needed clinical manipulations, and then running the model to test for optimal combinations of therapeutic manoeuvres). II. A Heterogeneous Cerebrovascular Mathematical Model Cerebrovascular pathologies are extremely complex, due to the multitude of factors acting simultaneously on cerebral haemodynamics. In this work, the mathematical model of cerebral haemodynamics and intracranial pressure dynamics, described in the point I, is extended to account for heterogeneity in cerebral blood flow. The model includes the Circle of Willis, six regional districts independently regulated by autoregulation and CO2 reactivity, distal cortical anastomoses, venous circulation, the cerebrospinal fluid circulation, and the intracranial pressure-volume relationship. Results agree with data in the literature and highlight the existence of a monotonic relationship between transient hyperemic response and the autoregulation gain. During unilateral internal carotid artery stenosis, local blood flow regulation is progressively lost in the ipsilateral territory with the presence of a steal phenomenon, while the anterior communicating artery plays the major role to redistribute the available blood flow. Conversely, distal collateral circulation plays a major role during unilateral occlusion of the middle cerebral artery. In conclusion, the model is able to reproduce several different pathological conditions characterized by heterogeneity in cerebrovascular haemodynamics and can not only explain generalized results in terms of physiological mechanisms involved, but also, by individualizing parameters, may represent a valuable tool to help with difficult clinical decisions. III. Effect of Cushing Response on Systemic Arterial Pressure. During cerebral hypoxic conditions, the sympathetic system causes an increase in arterial pressure (Cushing response), creating a link between the cerebral and the systemic circulation. This work investigates the complex relationships among cerebrovascular dynamics, intracranial pressure, Cushing response, and short-term systemic regulation, during plateau waves, by means of an original mathematical model. The model incorporates the pulsating heart, the pulmonary circulation and the systemic circulation, with an accurate description of the cerebral circulation and the intracranial pressure dynamics (same model as in the first paragraph). Various regulatory mechanisms are included: cerebral autoregulation, local blood flow control by oxygen (O2) and/or CO2 changes, sympathetic and vagal regulation of cardiovascular parameters by several reflex mechanisms (chemoreceptors, lung-stretch receptors, baroreceptors). The Cushing response has been described assuming a dramatic increase in sympathetic activity to vessels during a fall in brain O2 delivery. With this assumption, the model is able to simulate the cardiovascular effects experimentally observed when intracranial pressure is artificially elevated and maintained at constant level (arterial pressure increase and bradicardia). According to the model, these effects arise from the interaction between the Cushing response and the baroreflex response (secondary to arterial pressure increase). Then, patients with severe head injury have been simulated by reducing intracranial compliance and cerebrospinal fluid reabsorption. With these changes, oscillations with plateau waves developed. In these conditions, model results indicate that the Cushing response may have both positive effects, reducing the duration of the plateau phase via an increase in cerebral perfusion pressure, and negative effects, increasing the intracranial pressure plateau level, with a risk of greater compression of the cerebral vessels. This model may be of value to assist clinicians in finding the balance between clinical benefits of the Cushing response and its shortcomings. IV. Comprehensive Cardiopulmonary Simulation Model for the Analysis of Hypercapnic Respiratory Failure We developed a new comprehensive cardiopulmonary model that takes into account the mutual interactions between the cardiovascular and the respiratory systems along with their short-term regulatory mechanisms. The model includes the heart, systemic and pulmonary circulations, lung mechanics, gas exchange and transport equations, and cardio-ventilatory control. Results show good agreement with published patient data in case of normoxic and hyperoxic hypercapnia simulations. In particular, simulations predict a moderate increase in mean systemic arterial pressure and heart rate, with almost no change in cardiac output, paralleled by a relevant increase in minute ventilation, tidal volume and respiratory rate. The model can represent a valid tool for clinical practice and medical research, providing an alternative way to experience-based clinical decisions. In conclusion, models are not only capable of summarizing current knowledge, but also identifying missing knowledge. In the former case they can serve as training aids for teaching the operation of complex systems, especially if the model can be used to demonstrate the outcome of experiments. In the latter case they generate experiments to be performed to gather the missing data.

Technological innovation in Emilia-Romagna: knowledge, practice, strategies

The present study aims at assessing the innovation strategies adopted within a regional economic system, the Italian region Emilia-Romagna, as it faced the challenges of a changing international scenario. As the strengthening of the regional innovative capabilities is regarded as a keystone to foster a new phase of economic growth, it is important also to understand how the local industrial, institutional, and academic actors have tackled the problem of innovation in the recent past. In this study we explore the approaches to innovation and the strategies adopted by the main regional actors through three different case studies. Chapter 1 provides a general survey of the innovative performance of the regional industries over the past two decades, as it emerges from statistical data and systematic comparisons at the national and European levels. The chapter also discusses the innovation policies that the regional government set up since 2001 in order to strengthen the collaboration among local economic actors, including universities and research centres. As mechanics is the most important regional industry, chapter 2 analyses the combination of knowledge and practices utilized in the period 1960s-1990s in the design of a particular kind of machinery produced by G.D S.p.A., a world-leader in the market of tobacco packaging machines. G.D is based in Bologna, the region’s capital, and is at the centre of the most important Italian packaging district. In chapter 3 the attention turns to the institutional level, focusing on how the local public administrations, and the local, publicly-owned utility companies have dealt with the creation of new telematic networks on the regional territory during the 1990s and 2000s. Finally, chapter 4 assesses the technology transfer carried out by the main university of the region – the University of Bologna – by focusing on the patenting activities involving its research personnel in the period 1960-2010.

Bridging innovation, nature and tradition: assessment of strategies for rural tourism development in Maramureş (Romania)

In the frame of EU rural policy, always more oriented towards environmental concerns and green livelihoods, Romania stands out for the predominance of rural areas and high nature value farming. The country has to face the challenge of joining the modernization process of rural farming systems with the valorization of local assets. Tourism has emerged as one of the main drivers of change and contributors for a sustainable exploitation of local resources. Rural tourism (RT) can foster the enhancement of the territorial capital (TC), the preservation of public goods (PGs) and the promotion of a more environmental oriented livelihood. The research focuses on a case study area, two valleys from Maramureş, where environmental approaches as diversification strategies are partially explored. The work investigates the role of tourism initiatives for the promotion of green oriented practices. The first part of the work is based on a literature review and interdisciplinary analysis of secondary data to identify the key issues: from rural development policy, to the concept of TC, of PGs and RT. The Romanian development programmes and related strategies are investigated; afterwards the characteristics of the County and the role of RT as diversification and valorisation policies is considered. The second part is based on the collection of primary data through interviews to different local stakeholders (farmers owners of rural guesthouses, local administrators, networks and artisans). The main frequencies are analyzed, a cluster analysis is computed to evaluate the similarities within the most representative groups and a comparative analysis is carried out between the two Valleys. The frame of the analysis is based on a set of indicators following the dimensions of the TC, to assess the characteristics of the local stakeholders and to outline the perception about the local PGs and on the adopted strategies to manage the territory. Final considerations are elaborated and few scenarios are outlined, giving relevance to the importance of improving awareness and creating embeddedness among public-private local stakeholders and resources as a tool for a socio-economic and environmental development of the area.

Applications of remote sensing and geographic information systems in geomorphological studies: Safaga - El Quseir area, Red Sea coast, Egypt as an example

In den letzten drei Jahrzehnten sind Fernerkundung und GIS in den Geowissenschaften zunehmend wichtiger geworden, um die konventionellen Methoden von Datensammlung und zur Herstellung von Landkarten zu verbessern. Die vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich mit der Anwendung von Fernerkundung und geographischen Informationssystemen (GIS) für geomorphologische Untersuchungen. Durch die Kombination beider Techniken ist es vor allem möglich geworden, geomorphologische Formen im Überblick und dennoch detailliert zu erfassen. Als Grundlagen werden in dieser Arbeit topographische und geologische Karten, Satellitenbilder und Klimadaten benutzt. Die Arbeit besteht aus 6 Kapiteln. Das erste Kapitel gibt einen allgemeinen Überblick über den Untersuchungsraum. Dieser umfasst folgende morphologische Einheiten, klimatischen Verhältnisse, insbesondere die Ariditätsindizes der Küsten- und Gebirgslandschaft sowie das Siedlungsmuster beschrieben. Kapitel 2 befasst sich mit der regionalen Geologie und Stratigraphie des Untersuchungsraumes. Es wird versucht, die Hauptformationen mit Hilfe von ETM-Satellitenbildern zu identifizieren. Angewandt werden hierzu folgende Methoden: Colour Band Composite, Image Rationing und die sog. überwachte Klassifikation. Kapitel 3 enthält eine Beschreibung der strukturell bedingten Oberflächenformen, um die Wechselwirkung zwischen Tektonik und geomorphologischen Prozessen aufzuklären. Es geht es um die vielfältigen Methoden, zum Beispiel das sog. Image Processing, um die im Gebirgskörper vorhandenen Lineamente einwandfrei zu deuten. Spezielle Filtermethoden werden angewandt, um die wichtigsten Lineamente zu kartieren. Kapitel 4 stellt den Versuch dar, mit Hilfe von aufbereiteten SRTM-Satellitenbildern eine automatisierte Erfassung des Gewässernetzes. Es wird ausführlich diskutiert, inwieweit bei diesen Arbeitsschritten die Qualität kleinmaßstäbiger SRTM-Satellitenbilder mit großmaßstäbigen topographischen Karten vergleichbar ist. Weiterhin werden hydrologische Parameter über eine qualitative und quantitative Analyse des Abflussregimes einzelner Wadis erfasst. Der Ursprung von Entwässerungssystemen wird auf der Basis geomorphologischer und geologischer Befunde interpretiert. Kapitel 5 befasst sich mit der Abschätzung der Gefahr episodischer Wadifluten. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit ihres jährlichen Auftretens bzw. des Auftretens starker Fluten im Abstand mehrerer Jahre wird in einer historischen Betrachtung bis 1921 zurückverfolgt. Die Bedeutung von Regentiefs, die sich über dem Roten Meer entwickeln, und die für eine Abflussbildung in Frage kommen, wird mit Hilfe der IDW-Methode (Inverse Distance Weighted) untersucht. Betrachtet werden außerdem weitere, regenbringende Wetterlagen mit Hilfe von Meteosat Infrarotbildern. Genauer betrachtet wird die Periode 1990-1997, in der kräftige, Wadifluten auslösende Regenfälle auftraten. Flutereignisse und Fluthöhe werden anhand von hydrographischen Daten (Pegelmessungen) ermittelt. Auch die Landnutzung und Siedlungsstruktur im Einzugsgebiet eines Wadis wird berücksichtigt. In Kapitel 6 geht es um die unterschiedlichen Küstenformen auf der Westseite des Roten Meeres zum Beispiel die Erosionsformen, Aufbauformen, untergetauchte Formen. Im abschließenden Teil geht es um die Stratigraphie und zeitliche Zuordnung von submarinen Terrassen auf Korallenriffen sowie den Vergleich mit anderen solcher Terrassen an der ägyptischen Rotmeerküste westlich und östlich der Sinai-Halbinsel.

Spatial Disparity and Dynamic Trajectory of Convergence in China: Construction and Application of a Composite Index of Regional Development

China is a large country characterized by remarkable growth and distinct regional diversity. Spatial disparity has always been a hot issue since China has been struggling to follow a balanced growth path but still confronting with unprecedented pressures and challenges. To better understand the inequality level benchmarking spatial distributions of Chinese provinces and municipalities and estimate dynamic trajectory of sustainable development in China, I constructed the Composite Index of Regional Development (CIRD) with five sub pillars/dimensions involving Macroeconomic Index (MEI), Science and Innovation Index (SCI), Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI), Human Capital Index (HCI) and Public Facilities Index (PFI), endeavoring to cover various fields of regional socioeconomic development. Ranking reports on the five sub dimensions and aggregated CIRD were provided in order to better measure the developmental degrees of 31 or 30 Chinese provinces and municipalities over 13 years from 1998 to 2010 as the time interval of three “Five-year Plans”. Further empirical applications of this CIRD focused on clustering and convergence estimation, attempting to fill up the gap in quantifying the developmental levels of regional comprehensive socioeconomics and estimating the dynamic convergence trajectory of regional sustainable development in a long run. Four clusters were benchmarked geographically-oriented in the map on the basis of cluster analysis, and club-convergence was observed in the Chinese provinces and municipalities based on stochastic kernel density estimation.

Operational research applied to regional healthcare system

In this thesis we focus on optimization and simulation techniques applied to solve strategic, tactical and operational problems rising in the healthcare sector. At first we present three applications to Emilia-Romagna Public Health System (SSR) developed in collaboration with Agenzia Sanitaria e Sociale dell'Emilia-Romagna (ASSR), a regional center for innovation and improvement in health. Agenzia launched a strategic campaign aimed at introducing Operations Research techniques as decision making tools to support technological and organizational innovations. The three applications focus on forecast and fund allocation of medical specialty positions, breast screening program extension and operating theater planning. The case studies exploit the potential of combinatorial optimization, discrete event simulation and system dynamics techniques to solve resource constrained problem arising within Emilia-Romagna territory. We then present an application in collaboration with Dipartimento di Epidemiologia del Lazio that focuses on population demand of service allocation to regional emergency departments. Finally, a simulation-optimization approach, developed in collaboration with INESC TECH center of Porto, to evaluate matching policies for the kidney exchange problem is discussed.

Implications of regional fault distribution and kinematics for the uplift of rift flanks around the Rwenzori Mountains, Southwestern Uganda

Das Ziel dieser Arbeit bestand in der Untersuchung der Störungsverteilung und der Störungskinematik im Zusammenhang mit der Hebung der Riftschultern des Rwenzori Gebirges.rnDas Rwenzori Gebirge befindet sich im NNE-SSWbis N-S verlaufenden Albertine Rift, des nördlichsten Segments des westlichen Armes des Ostafrikanischen Grabensystems. Das Albertine Rift besteht aus Becken unterschiedlicher Höhe, die den Lake Albert, Lake Edward, Lake George und Lake Kivu enthalten. Der Rwenzori horst trennt die Becken des Lake Albert und des Lake Edward. Es erstreckt sich 120km in N-S Richtung, sowie 40-50km in E-W Richtung, der h¨ochste Punkt befindet sich 5111 ü. NN. Diese Studie untersucht einen Abschnitt des Rifts zwischen etwa 1°N und 0°30'S Breite sowie 29°30' und 30°30' östlicher Länge ersteckt. Auch die Feldarbeit konzentrierte sich auf dieses Gebiet.rnrnHauptzweck dieser Studie bestand darin, die folgende These auf ihre Richtigkeit zu überprüfen: ’Wenn es im Verlauf der Zeit tatsächlich zu wesentlichen Änderungen in der Störungskinematik kam, dann ist die starke Hebung der Riftflanken im Bereich der Rwenzoris nicht einfach durch Bewegung entlang der Graben-Hauptst¨orungen zu erklären. Vielmehr ist sie ein Resultat des Zusammenspiels mehrerer tektonische Prozesse, die das Spannungsfeld beeinflussen und dadurch Änderungen in der Kinematik hervorrufen.’ Dadurch konzentrierte sich die Studie in erster Linie auf die Störungsanalyse.rnrnDie Kenntnis regionaler Änderungen der Extensionsrichtung ist entscheidend für das Verständnis komplexer Riftsysteme wie dem Ostafrikanischen Graben. Daher bestand der Kern der Untersuchung in der Kartierung von Störungen und der Untersuchung der Störungskinematik. Die Aufnahme strukturgeologischer Daten konzentrierte sich auf die Ugandische Seite des Rifts, und Pal¨aospannungen wurden mit Hilfe von St¨orungsdaten durch Spannungsinversion rekonstruiert.rnDie unterschiedliche Orientierung spr¨oder Strukturen im Gelände, die geometrische Analyse der geologischen Strukturen sowie die Ergebnisse von Mikrostrukturen im Dünnschliff (Kapitel 4) weisen auf verschiedene Spannungsfelder hin, die auf mögliche Änderungen der Extensionsrichtung hinweisen. Die Resultate der Spannungsinversion sprechen für Ab-, Über- und Blattverschiebungen sowie für Schrägüberschiebungen (Kapitel 5). Aus der Orientierung der Abschiebungen gehen zwei verschiedene Extensionsrichtungen hervor: im Wesentlichen NW-SE Extension in fast allen Gebieten, sowie NNE-SSW Extension im östlichen Zentralbereich.rnAus der Analyse von Blattverschiebungen ergaben sich drei unterschiedliche Spannungszustände. Zum Einen NNW-SSE bis N-S Kompression in Verbindung mit ENE-WSW bzw E-W Extension wurde für die nördlichen und die zentralen Ruwenzoris ausgemacht. Ein zweiter Spannungszustand mit WNW-ESE Kompression/NNE-SSW Extension betraf die Zentralen Rwenzoris. Ein dritter Spannungszustand mit NNW-SSE Extension betraf den östlichen Zentralteil der Rwenzoris. Schrägüberschiebungen sind durch dazu schräge Achsen charakterisiert, die für N-S bis NNW-SSE Kompression sprechen und ausschließlich im östlichen Zentralabschnitt auftreten. Überschiebungen, die hauptsächlich in den zentralen und den östlichen Rwenzoris auftreten, sprechen für NE-SW orientierten σ2-Achsen und NW-SE Extension.rnrnEs konnten drei unterschiedliche Spannungseinflüsse identifiziert werden: auf die kollisionsbedingte Bildung eines Überschiebungssystem folgte intra-kratonische Kompression und schließlich extensionskontrollierte Riftbildung. Der Übergang zwischen den beiden letztgenannten Spannungszuständen erfolgte Schrittweise und erzeugte vermutlich lokal begrenzte Transpression und Transtension. Gegenw¨artig wird die Störungskinematik der Region durch ein tensiles Spannungsregime in NW-SE bis N-S Richtung bestimmt.rnrnLokale Spannungsvariationen werden dabei hauptsächlich durch die Interferenzrndes regionalen Spannungsfeldes mit lokalen Hauptst¨orungen verursacht. Weitere Faktoren die zu lokalen Veränderungen des Spannungsfeldes führen können sind unterschiedliche Hebungsgeschwindigkeiten, Blockrotation oder die Interaktion von Riftsegmenten. Um den Einfluß präexistenter Strukturen und anderer Bedingungen auf die Hebung der Rwenzoris zu ermitteln, wurde der Riftprozeß mit Hilfe eines analogen ’Sandbox’-Modells rekonstruiert (Kapitel 6). Da sich die Moho-Diskontinuität im Bereich des Arbeitsgebietes in einer Tiefe von 25 km befindet, aktive Störungen aber nur bis zu einer Tiefe von etwa 20 km beobachtet werden können (Koehn et al. 2008), wurden nur die oberen 25 km im Modell nachbebildet. Untersucht und mit Geländebeobachtungen verglichen wurden sowohl die Reihenfolge, in der Riftsegmente entstehen, als auch die Muster, die sich im Verlauf der Nukleierung und des Wachstums dieser Riftsegmente ausbilden. Das Hauptaugenmerk wurde auf die Entwicklung der beiden Subsegmente gelegt auf denen sich der Lake Albert bzw. der Lake Edward und der Lake George befinden, sowie auf das dazwischenliegende Rwenzori Gebirge. Das Ziel der Untersuchung bestand darin herauszufinden, in welcher Weise das südwärts propagierende Lake Albert-Subsegment mit dem sinistral versetzten nordwärts propagierenden Lake Edward/Lake George-Subsegment interagiert.rnrnVon besonderem Interesse war es, in welcherWeise die Strukturen innerhalb und außerhalb der Rwenzoris durch die Interaktion dieser Riftsegmente beeinflußt wurden. rnrnDrei verschiedene Versuchsreihen mit unterschiedlichen Randbedingungen wurden miteinander verglichen. Abhängig vom vorherrschenden Deformationstyp der Transferzone wurden die Reihen als ’Scherungs-dominiert’, ’Extensions-dominiert’ und als ’Rotations-dominiert’ charakterisiert. Die Beobachtung der 3-dimensionalen strukturellen Entwicklung der Riftsegmente wurde durch die Kombination von Modell-Aufsichten mit Profilschnitten ermöglicht. Von den drei genannten Versuchsreihen entwickelte die ’Rotationsdominierten’ Reihe einen rautenförmiger Block im Tranferbereich der beiden Riftsegmente, der sich um 5−20° im Uhrzeigersinn drehte. DieserWinkel liegt im Bereich des vermuteten Rotationswinkel des Rwenzori-Blocks (5°). Zusammengefasst untersuchen die Sandbox-Versuche den Einfluss präexistenter Strukturen und der Überlappung bzw. Überschneidung zweier interagierender Riftsegmente auf die Entwicklung des Riftsystems. Sie befassen sich darüber hinaus mit der Frage, welchen Einfluss Blockbildung und -rotation auf das lokale Stressfeld haben.

An economic assessment of drought effects on three grassland systems in Switzerland

This paper analyzes the economic impacts of summer drought on Swiss grassland production. We combine field trial data from drought experiments in three different grasslands in Switzerland with site-specific information on economic costs and benefits. The analysis focuses on the economic implications of drought effects on grassland yields as well as grassland composition. In agreement with earlier studies, we found rather heterogeneous yield effects of drought on Swiss grassland systems, with significantly reduced yields as a response to drought at the lowland and sub-alpine sites, but increased yields at the wetter pre-alpine site. Relative yield losses were highest at the sub-alpine site (with annual yield losses of up to 37 %). However, because income from grassland production at extensive sites relies to a large extent on ecological direct payments, even large yield losses had only limited implications in terms of relative profit reductions. In contrast, negative drought impacts at the most productive, intensively managed lowland site were dominant, with average annual drought-induced profit margin reductions of about 28 %. This is furthermore emphasized if analyzing the farm level perspective of drought impacts. Combining site-specific effects at the farm level, we found that in particular farms with high shares of lowland grassland sites suffer from summer droughts in terms of farm-level fodder production and profit margins. Moreover, our results showed that the higher competitiveness of weeds (broad-leaved dock) under drought conditions will require increasing attention on weed control measures in future grassland production systems. Taking into account that the risk of drought occurrence is expected to increase in the coming years, additional instruments to cope with drought risks in fodder production and finally farmers’ income have to be developed.

Adapting agricultural land management to climate change: a regional multi-objective optimization approach

In several regions of the world, climate change is expected to have severe impacts on agricultural systems. Changes in land management are one way to adapt to future climatic conditions, including land-use changes and local adjustments of agricultural practices. In previous studies, options for adaptation have mostly been explored by testing alternative scenarios. Systematic explorations of land management possibilities using optimization approaches were so far mainly restricted to studies of land and resource management under constant climatic conditions. In this study, we bridge this gap and exploit the benefits of multi-objective regional optimization for identifying optimum land management adaptations to climate change. We design a multi-objective optimization routine that integrates a generic crop model and considers two climate scenarios for 2050 in a meso-scale catchment on the Swiss Central Plateau with already limited water resources. The results indicate that adaptation will be necessary in the study area to cope with a decrease in productivity by 0–10 %, an increase in soil loss by 25–35 %, and an increase in N-leaching by 30–45 %. Adaptation options identified here exhibit conflicts between productivity and environmental goals, but compromises are possible. Necessary management changes include (i) adjustments of crop shares, i.e. increasing the proportion of early harvested winter cereals at the expense of irrigated spring crops, (ii) widespread use of reduced tillage, (iii) allocation of irrigated areas to soils with low water-retention capacity at lower elevations, and (iv) conversion of some pre-alpine grasslands to croplands.