A prospective study on the early evaluation of response to androgen receptor-targeted agents with 11C-Choline, 68Ga-PSMA and 18F-FACBC PET in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: a single center experience.

Background: The early identification of responsive and resistant patients to androgen-receptor targeting agents (ARTA) in metastatic castration resistant-prostate cancer (CRPC) is not completely possible with PSA assessment and conventional imaging. Considering its ability to determine metabolic activity of lesions, PET assessment might be a promising tool. Materials and methods: We performed a monocentric prospective study in patients with metastatic CRPC under treatment with ARTA to evaluate the role of different PET radiotracers: 49 patients were randomized to receive 11C-Choline, 18F-FACBC or 68Ga-PSMA PET, one scan before therapy onset and one two months later. The primary aim was to investigate the performance of three different novel PET radiotracers for the early evaluation of response to ARTA in metastatic CRPC patients; with regards to this aim, the outcome evaluated was biochemical response (PSA reduction ≥50%). The secondary aim was to investigate the prognostic role of several semiquantitative PET parameters and their variations with the different radiotracers in terms of biochemical PFS (bPFS) and overall survival (OS). The study was promoted by the Italian Department of Health (code RF-2016-02364809). Results: With regards to the primary endpoint, at univariate analysis a statistically significant correlation was found between MTV_VARIATION% (p=0.018) and TLA_VARIATION% (p=0.025) with 68Ga-PSMA PET and biochemical response. As for the secondary endpoints, significant correlations with bPFS were found for 68Ga-PSMA PET MTV_TOT_PET1 (p=0.001), TLA_TOT_PET1 (p=0.025), MTV_VARIATION% (p=0.031). For OS, statistically significant correlations were found for: MAJ_SUV_MAX_PET1 with 11C-Choline PET (p=0.007); MTV_TOT_PET1 (p=0.004), MAJ_SUV_MAX_PET1 (p=0.029), SUVMAX_VARIATION% (p=0.04), MTV_VARIATION% (p=0.015), TLA_VARIATION% (p=0.03) with 68Ga-PSMA PET,; MTV_TOT_PET1 (p=0.011), TLA_TOT_PET1 (p=0.009), MAJ_SUV_MAX_PET1 (p=0.027), MTV_VARIATION% (p=0.048) with 18F-FACBC. Conclusions: Our prospective study highlighted that several 68Ga-PSMA and 18F-FACBC semiquantitative PET parameters and their variations present a prognostic value in terms of OS and bPFS and a correlation with biochemical response, that could help to assess response to ARTA.

Prognostic and predictive value of centrally reviewed Ki-67 labeling index in postmenopausal women with endocrine-responsive breast cancer: results from Breast International Group Trial 1-98 comparing adjuvant tamoxifen with letrozole.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the prognostic and predictive value of Ki-67 labeling index (LI) in a trial comparing letrozole (Let) with tamoxifen (Tam) as adjuvant therapy in postmenopausal women with early breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Breast International Group (BIG) trial 1-98 randomly assigned 8,010 patients to four treatment arms comparing Let and Tam with sequences of each agent. Of 4,922 patients randomly assigned to receive 5 years of monotherapy with either agent, 2,685 had primary tumor material available for central pathology assessment of Ki-67 LI by immunohistochemistry and had tumors confirmed to express estrogen receptors after central review. The prognostic and predictive value of centrally measured Ki-67 LI on disease-free survival (DFS) were assessed among these patients using proportional hazards modeling, with Ki-67 LI values dichotomized at the median value of 11%. RESULTS: Higher values of Ki-67 LI were associated with adverse prognostic factors and with worse DFS (hazard ratio [HR; high:low] = 1.8; 95% CI, 1.4 to 2.3). The magnitude of the treatment benefit for Let versus Tam was greater among patients with high tumor Ki-67 LI (HR [Let:Tam] = 0.53; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.72) than among patients with low tumor Ki-67 LI (HR [Let:Tam] = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.57 to 1.15; interaction P = .09). CONCLUSION: Ki-67 LI is confirmed as a prognostic factor in this study. High Ki-67 LI levels may identify a patient group that particularly benefits from initial Let adjuvant therapy.

The prognostic and predictive value of selected biomarkers in colorectal cancer

Tissue-based biomarkers are studied to receive information about the pathologic processes and cancer outcome, and to enable development of patient-tailored treatments. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential prognostic and/or predictive value of selected biomarkers in colorectal cancer (CRC). Group IIA secretory phospholipase A2 (IIA PLA2) expression was assessed in 114 samples presenting different phases of human colorectal carcinogenesis. Securin, Ki-67, CD44 variant 6 (CD44v6), aldehyde dehydrogenase 1 (ALDH1) and β-catenin were studied in a material including 227 rectal carcinoma patients treated with short-course preoperative radiotherapy (RT), long-course preoperative (chemo)RT (CRT) or surgery only. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene copy number (GCN), its heterogeneity in CRC tissue, and association with response to EGFR-targeted antibodies cetuximab and panitumumab were analyzed in a cohort of 76 metastatic CRC. IIA PLA2 expression was decreased in invasive carcinomas compared to adenomas, but did not relate to patient survival. High securin expression after long-course (C)RT and high ALDH1 expression in node-negative rectal cancer were independent adverse prognostic factors, ALDH1 specifically in patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. The lack of membranous CD44v6 in the rectal cancer invasive front associated with infiltrative growth pattern and the risk of disease recurrence. Heterogeneous EGFR GCN increase predicted benefit from EGFR-targeted antibodies, also in the chemorefractory patient population. In summary, high securin and ALDH1 protein expression independently relate to poor outcome in subgroups of rectal cancer patients, potentially because of resistance to conventional chemotherapeutics. Heterogeneous increase in EGFR GCN was validated to be a promising predictive factor in the treatment of metastatic CRC.

Prognosis of colorectal cancer with liver metastasis: value of a prognostic index

The objective of the present study was to explore the factors related to the prognosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) and to establish a prognostic model for the selection of patients who might benefit from hepatic resection for metastatic CRC. A total of 293 patients undergoing liver resection for metastatic CRC (172 males and 80 females ranging in age from 26 to 80 years) were selected and clinical, pathological and outcome data were examined in this retrospective study. The prognostic index (PI) of the patients was calculated on the basis of results of multivariate analysis. Patients were stratified into different groups, with survival curves projected according to PI. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 58.3, 26.4, and 11.3%, respectively. Univariate analysis indicated that degree of primary tumor differentiation, resection margin, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, number of liver metastases, and resection of liver metastases were associated with prognosis (P < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, the last three factors were found to be independent prognostic factors. The resection of liver metastases was a favorable factor. Patients were classified into three groups according to PI, which differed significantly in survival rate (P < 0.05). The individual survival rate was evaluated based on PI. Resection of hepatic colorectal metastases may produce long-term survival and cure. The proposed PI was easy to use, was highly predictive of patient outcome, and permitted categorization of patients into treatment groups.

Prognostic and diagnostic value of EEG signal coupling measures in coma.

OBJECTIVE Our aim was to assess the diagnostic and predictive value of several quantitative EEG (qEEG) analysis methods in comatose patients. METHODS In 79 patients, coupling between EEG signals on the left-right (inter-hemispheric) axis and on the anterior-posterior (intra-hemispheric) axis was measured with four synchronization measures: relative delta power asymmetry, cross-correlation, symbolic mutual information and transfer entropy directionality. Results were compared with etiology of coma and clinical outcome. Using cross-validation, the predictive value of measure combinations was assessed with a Bayes classifier with mixture of Gaussians. RESULTS Five of eight measures showed a statistically significant difference between patients grouped according to outcome; one measure revealed differences in patients grouped according to the etiology. Interestingly, a high level of synchrony between the left and right hemisphere was associated with mortality on intensive care unit, whereas higher synchrony between anterior and posterior brain regions was associated with survival. The combination with the best predictive value reached an area-under the curve of 0.875 (for patients with post anoxic encephalopathy: 0.946). CONCLUSIONS EEG synchronization measures can contribute to clinical assessment, and provide new approaches for understanding the pathophysiology of coma. SIGNIFICANCE Prognostication in coma remains a challenging task. qEEG could improve current multi-modal approaches.

Expression of matrix metalloproteinase 2 (MMP-2) and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 2 (TIMP-2) in medullary thyroid carcinoma: Prognostic implications

Background: Metalloproteinase 2 (MMP-2) and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 2 (TIMP-2) participate in the degeneration of the extracellular matrix and are associated with carcinogenesis. MMP-2 is one of the main metalloproteinases active in neoplasia and is a marker of the malignant phenotype. Since the biological behavior of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) varies widely, the present study was undertaken to determine if there is a correlation between the clinical evolution of MTC and the immunohistochemically detected expression of these enzymes in thyroid surgical specimens containing MTC. If so, their expression would be a novel indicator of the prognosis of MTC. Methods: Thirty-seven patients with MTC who had undergone thyroid surgery were followed for an average of 73 months. Immunohistochemical staining for metalloproteinase-related enzymes was performed in surgical paraffin blocks. The clinical status of the patients after surgery and at the end of the study period was characterized to determine correlations between these and the immunohistochemical markers. A value of p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: At the end of the study period, 15 patients (40.5%) were alive and without evidence of MTC, 17 (45.9%) had persistent MTC, and 5 (13.5%) had a relapse of their neoplasia. Four patients (10.8%) died during the course of the study. There was a significant correlation (p = 0.0005) between the immunohistochemical staining for MMP-2 and the clinical condition of the patients at the end of the study period, and a correlation between the state of apparent cure compared to persistence of MTC after thyroid surgery (p = 0.0207). No significant correlations were observed between either TIMP-2 expression or immune marking of metastatic lymph nodes and the clinical variables studied. Conclusion: Immunohistochemical expression of MMP-2 in thyroid surgical specimens from patients with MTC is a novel indicator of the prognosis of this cancer.

EXPRESSION OF MEMBRANE TYPE 1 MATRIX METALLOPROTEINASE IN MEDULLARY THYROID CARCINOMA: PROGNOSTIC IMPLICATIONS

Background. Clinical and pathologic examinations cannot always provide a prognosis for patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma. Membrane type 1 matrix metalloproteinase (MT1-MMP) can act directly on carcinogenesis and takes part in 1 of the processes of metalloproteinase 2 activation, an enzyme related to prognostic impairment of patients with such tumor. Methods. Thirty-five patients who were submitted to surgery were followed up for an average of 74 months, Postoperative and final medical conditions were characterized for comparison with MT1-MMP immunostainings, performed in surgical paraffin blocks. A value of p < .05 was considered statistically significant. Results. Proposed index (association of proportion and intensity of immunostaining) and proportion of immunostained cells in primary specimens were correlated with cure or persistence after initial operations (p = .0216 and p = .0098, respectively). Conclusion. MT1-MMP immunostaining in primary tumor specimens is a new and complementary prognostic predictor in patients with medullary thyroid carcinomas. (C) 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 32: 58-67, 2010

C-reactive protein at 24 hours after hospital admission may have relevant prognostic accuracy in acute pancreatitis: a retrospective cohort study

Introduction: C-reactive protein (CRP) and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) have been used in early risk assessment of patients with AP. Objectives: We evaluated prognostic accuracy of CRP at 24 hours after hospital admission (CRP24) for in-hospital mortality (IM) in AP individually and with BISAP. Materials and Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 134 patients with AP from a Portuguese hospital in 2009---2010. Prognostic accuracy assessment used area under receiver---operating characteristic curve (AUC), continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Results: Thirteen percent of patients had severe AP, 26% developed pancreatic necrosis, and 7% died during index hospital stay. AUCs for CRP24 and BISAP individually were 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65---0.95) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.59---0.95), respectively. No patients with CRP24 <60 mg/l died (P = 0.027; negative predictive value 100% (95% CI 92.3---100%)). AUC for BISAP plus CRP24 was 0.81 (95% CI 0.65---0.97). Change in NRI nonevents (42.4%; 95% CI, 24.9---59.9%) resulted in positive overall NRI (31.3%; 95% CI, − 36.4% to 98.9%), but IDI nonevents was negligible (0.004; 95% CI, − 0.007 to 0.014). Conclusions: CRP24 revealed good prognostic accuracy for IM in AP; its main role may be the selection of lowest risk patients.

Impact of cerebral cardiopulmonary resuscitation maneuvers in a general hospital: prognostic factors and outcomes

OBJECTIVE: To assess survival of patients undergoing cerebral cardiopulmonary resuscitation maneuvers and to identify prognostic factors for short-term survival. METHODS: Prospective study with patients undergoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation maneuvers. RESULTS: The study included 150 patients. Spontaneous circulation was re-established in 88 (58%) patients, and 42 (28%) were discharged from the hospital. The necessary number of patients treated to save 1 life in 12 months was 3.4. The presence of ventricular fibrillation or tachycardia (VF/VT) as the initial rhythm, shorter times of cardiopulmonary resuscitation maneuvers and cardiopulmonary arrest, and greater values of mean blood pressure (BP) prior to cardiopulmonary arrest were independent variables for re-establishment of spontaneous circulation and hospital discharge. The odds ratios for hospital discharge were as follows: 6.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.7-13.6), when the initial rhythm was VF/VT; 9.4 (95% CI = 4.1-21.3), when the time of cerebral cardiopulmonary resuscitation was < 15 min; 9.2 (95% CI = 3.9-21.3), when the time of cardiopulmonary arrest was < 20 min; and 5.7 (95% CI = 2.4-13.7), when BP was > 70 mmHg. CONCLUSION: The presence of VF/VT as the initial rhythm, shorter times of cerebral cardiopulmonary resuscitation and of cardiopulmonary arrest, and a greater value of BP prior to cardiopulmonary arrest were independent variables of better prognosis.

Very Long-Term Prognostic Role of Admission BNP in Non-ST Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome

Abstract Background: BNP has been extensively evaluated to determine short- and intermediate-term prognosis in patients with acute coronary syndrome, but its role in long-term mortality is not known. Objective: To determine the very long-term prognostic role of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) for all-cause mortality in patients with non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTEACS). Methods: A cohort of 224 consecutive patients with NSTEACS, prospectively seen in the Emergency Department, had BNP measured on arrival to establish prognosis, and underwent a median 9.34-year follow-up for all-cause mortality. Results: Unstable angina was diagnosed in 52.2%, and non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction, in 47.8%. Median admission BNP was 81.9 pg/mL (IQ range = 22.2; 225) and mortality rate was correlated with increasing BNP quartiles: 14.3; 16.1; 48.2; and 73.2% (p < 0.0001). ROC curve disclosed 100 pg/mL as the best BNP cut-off value for mortality prediction (area under the curve = 0.789, 95% CI= 0.723-0.854), being a strong predictor of late mortality: BNP < 100 = 17.3% vs. BNP ≥ 100 = 65.0%, RR = 3.76 (95% CI = 2.49-5.63, p < 0.001). On logistic regression analysis, age >72 years (OR = 3.79, 95% CI = 1.62-8.86, p = 0.002), BNP ≥ 100 pg/mL (OR = 6.24, 95% CI = 2.95-13.23, p < 0.001) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.97-0.99, p = 0.049) were independent late-mortality predictors. Conclusions: BNP measured at hospital admission in patients with NSTEACS is a strong, independent predictor of very long-term all-cause mortality. This study allows raising the hypothesis that BNP should be measured in all patients with NSTEACS at the index event for long-term risk stratification.

Prospective validation of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index. A clinical prognostic model for pulmonary embolism

Practice guidelines recommend outpatient care for selected patients with non-massive pulmonary embolism (PE), but fail to specify how these low-risk patients should be identified. Using data from U.S. patients, we previously derived the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), a prediction rule that risk stratifies patients with PE. We sought to validate the PESI in a European patient cohort. We prospectively validated the PESI in patients with PE diagnosed at six emergency departments in three European countries. We used baseline data for the rule's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V) of increasing probability of mortality. The outcome was overall mortality at 90 days after presentation. To assess the accuracy of the PESI to predict mortality, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for low- (risk classes I/II) versus higher-risk patients (risk classes III-V), and the discriminatory power using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Among 357 patients with PE, overall mortality was 5.9%, ranging from 0% in class I to 17.9% in class V. The 186 (52%) low-risk patients had an overall mortality of 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-3.8%) compared to 11.1% (95% CI: 6.8-16.8%) in the 171 (48%) higher-risk patients. The PESI had a high sensitivity (91%, 95% CI: 71-97%) and a negative predictive value (99%, 95% CI: 96-100%) for predicting mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70-0.86). The PESI reliably identifies patients with PE who are at low risk of death and who are potential candidates for outpatient care. The PESI may help physicians make more rational decisions about hospitalization for patients with PE.

Prognostic accuracy of cerebral blood flow measurement by perfusion computed tomography, at the time of emergency room admission, in acute stroke patients.

The purpose of this study was to determine the prognostic accuracy of perfusion computed tomography (CT), performed at the time of emergency room admission, in acute stroke patients. Accuracy was determined by comparison of perfusion CT with delayed magnetic resonance (MR) and by monitoring the evolution of each patient's clinical condition. Twenty-two acute stroke patients underwent perfusion CT covering four contiguous 10mm slices on admission, as well as delayed MR, performed after a median interval of 3 days after emergency room admission. Eight were treated with thrombolytic agents. Infarct size on the admission perfusion CT was compared with that on the delayed diffusion-weighted (DWI)-MR, chosen as the gold standard. Delayed magnetic resonance angiography and perfusion-weighted MR were used to detect recanalization. A potential recuperation ratio, defined as PRR = penumbra size/(penumbra size + infarct size) on the admission perfusion CT, was compared with the evolution in each patient's clinical condition, defined by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). In the 8 cases with arterial recanalization, the size of the cerebral infarct on the delayed DWI-MR was larger than or equal to that of the infarct on the admission perfusion CT, but smaller than or equal to that of the ischemic lesion on the admission perfusion CT; and the observed improvement in the NIHSS correlated with the PRR (correlation coefficient = 0.833). In the 14 cases with persistent arterial occlusion, infarct size on the delayed DWI-MR correlated with ischemic lesion size on the admission perfusion CT (r = 0.958). In all 22 patients, the admission NIHSS correlated with the size of the ischemic area on the admission perfusion CT (r = 0.627). Based on these findings, we conclude that perfusion CT allows the accurate prediction of the final infarct size and the evaluation of clinical prognosis for acute stroke patients at the time of emergency evaluation. It may also provide information about the extent of the penumbra. Perfusion CT could therefore be a valuable tool in the early management of acute stroke patients.

Value of allogeneic versus autologous stem cell transplantation and chemotherapy in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes and secondary acute myeloid leukemia. Final results of a prospective randomized European Intergroup Trial.

BACKGROUND: Allogeneic stem cell transplantation is usually considered the only curative treatment option for patients with advanced or transformed myelodysplastic syndromes in complete remission, but post-remission chemotherapy and autologous stem cell transplantation are potential alternatives, especially in patients over 45 years old. DESIGN AND METHODS: We evaluated, after intensive anti-leukemic remission-induction chemotherapy, the impact of the availability of an HLA-identical sibling donor on an intention-to treat basis. Additionally, all patients without a sibling donor in complete remission after the first consolidation course were randomized to either autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation or a second consolidation course consisting of high-dose cytarabine. RESULTS: The 4-year survival of the 341 evaluable patients was 28%. After achieving complete remission, the 4-year survival rates of patients under 55 years old with or without a donor were 54% and 41%, respectively, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.81 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.49-1.35) for survival and of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.42-1.06) for disease-free survival. In patients with intermediate/high risk cytogenetic abnormalities the hazard ratio in multivariate analysis was 0.58 (99% CI, 0.22-1.50) (P=0.14) for survival and 0.46 (99% CI, 0.22-1.50) for disease-free survival (P=0.03). In contrast, in patients with low risk cytogenetic characteristics the hazard ratio for survival was 1.17 (99% CI, 0.40-3.42) and that for disease-free survival was 1.02 (99% CI, 0.40-2.56). The 4-year survival of the 65 patients randomized to autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation or a second consolidation course of high-dose cytarabine was 37% and 27%, respectively. The hazard ratio in multivariate analysis was 1.22 (95% CI, 0.65-2.27) for survival and 1.02 (95% CI, 0.56-1.85) for disease-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a donor and candidates for allogeneic stem cell transplantation in first complete remission may have a better disease-free survival than those without a donor in case of myelodysplastic syndromes with intermediate/high-risk cytogenetics. Autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation does not provide longer survival than intensive chemotherapy.

Extent of Hypoattenuation On CT Angiography Source Images In Basilar Artery Occlusion: Prognostic Accuracy Of Posterior Circulation ASPECTS And The Pons-midbrain Score In The Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study

Background: The posterior circulation Acute Stroke Prognosis Early CT Score (pc-ASPECTS) and the combined Pons-midbrain score quantify the extent of early ischemic changes in the posterior circulation. We compared the prognostic accuracy of both scores if applied to CT angiography (CTA) source images (CTA-SI) of patients in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS).Methods: BASICS was a prospective, observational, multi-centre, registry of consecutive patients who presented with acute symptomatic basilar artery occlusion (BAO). Functional outcome was assessed at 1 month. We applied pc-ASPECTS and the combined Pons-midbrain score to CTA-SI by 3-reader-consensus. Readers were blinded to clinical data. We performed multivariable logistic regression analysis, adjusting for thrombolysis, baseline NIHSS score and age, and used the output to derive ROC curves to compare the ability of both scores to discriminate patients with favourable (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] scores 0-3) from patients with unfavourable (mRS scores 4-6) functional outcome.Results: We reviewed CTAs of 158 patients (64% men, mean age 65 _ 15 years, median NIHSS score 25 [0-38], median GCS score 7 [3-15], median onset-to-CTA time 234 minutes [11-7380]). At 1 month, 40 (25%) patients had a favourable outcome, 49 (31%) had an unfavourable outcome (mRS score 4-5) and 69 (44%) were deceased. Both techniques of assessing CTA-SI hypoattenuation in the posterior circulation showed equally good discriminative value in predicting final outcome (C-statistics; area under ROC curve 0.74 versus 0.75, respectively; p_0.37). Pc-ASPECTS dichotomized at _6 versus _6 was an independent predictor of favourable functional outcome (RR _ 2.2; CI95 1.1-4.7; p _ 0.034).Conclusion: Compared to the combined Pons-midbrain score, the pc-ASPECTS score has similar prognostic accuracy to identify patients with a favourable functional outcome in BASICS. Dichotomized pc-ASPECTS (_6 versus _6) is an independent predictor of favourable functional outcome in this population. Author Disclosures: V. Puetz: None. A. Khomenko: None. M.D. Hill: None. I. Dzialowski: None. P. Michel: None. C. Weimar: None. C.A.C. Wijman: None. H. Mattle: None. K. Muir: None. T. Pfefferkorn: None. D. Tanne: None. S. Engelter: None. K. Szabo: None. A. Algra: None. A.M. Demchuk: None. W.J. Schonewille: None.

Chagas heart disease: pathophysiologic mechanisms, prognostic factors and risk stratification

Chagas heart disease (CHD) results from infection with the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi and is the leading cause of infectious myocarditis worldwide. It poses a substantial public health burden due to high morbidity and mortality. CHD is also the most serious and frequent manifestation of chronic Chagas disease and appears in 20-40% of infected individuals between 10-30 years after the original acute infection. In recent decades, numerous clinical and experimental investigations have shown that a low-grade but incessant parasitism, along with an accompanying immunological response [either parasite-driven (most likely) or autoimmune-mediated], plays an important role in producing myocardial damage in CHD. At the same time, primary neuronal damage and microvascular dysfunction have been described as ancillary pathogenic mechanisms. Conduction system disturbances, atrial and ventricular arrhythmias, congestive heart failure, systemic and pulmonary thromboembolism and sudden cardiac death are the most common clinical manifestations of chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy. Management of CHD aims to relieve symptoms, identify markers of unfavourable prognosis and treat those individuals at increased risk of disease progression or death. This article reviews the pathophysiology of myocardial damage, discusses the value of current risk stratification models and proposes an algorithm to guide mortality risk assessment and therapeutic decision-making in patients with CHD.