956 resultados para Process uncertainty


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Analytical expressions are derived for the mean and variance, of estimates of the bispectrum of a real-time series assuming a cosinusoidal model. The effects of spectral leakage, inherent in discrete Fourier transform operation when the modes present in the signal have a nonintegral number of wavelengths in the record, are included in the analysis. A single phase-coupled triad of modes can cause the bispectrum to have a nonzero mean value over the entire region of computation owing to leakage. The variance of bispectral estimates in the presence of leakage has contributions from individual modes and from triads of phase-coupled modes. Time-domain windowing reduces the leakage. The theoretical expressions for the mean and variance of bispectral estimates are derived in terms of a function dependent on an arbitrary symmetric time-domain window applied to the record. the number of data, and the statistics of the phase coupling among triads of modes. The theoretical results are verified by numerical simulations for simple test cases and applied to laboratory data to examine phase coupling in a hypothesis testing framework

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In dynamic and uncertain environments such as healthcare, where the needs of security and information availability are difficult to balance, an access control approach based on a static policy will be suboptimal regardless of how comprehensive it is. The uncertainty stems from the unpredictability of users’ operational needs as well as their private incentives to misuse permissions. In Role Based Access Control (RBAC), a user’s legitimate access request may be denied because its need has not been anticipated by the security administrator. Alternatively, even when the policy is correctly specified an authorised user may accidentally or intentionally misuse the granted permission. This paper introduces a novel approach to access control under uncertainty and presents it in the context of RBAC. By taking insights from the field of economics, in particular the insurance literature, we propose a formal model where the value of resources are explicitly defined and an RBAC policy (entailing those predictable access needs) is only used as a reference point to determine the price each user has to pay for access, as opposed to representing hard and fast rules that are always rigidly applied.

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We provide an algorithm that achieves the optimal regret rate in an unknown weakly communicating Markov Decision Process (MDP). The algorithm proceeds in episodes where, in each episode, it picks a policy using regularization based on the span of the optimal bias vector. For an MDP with S states and A actions whose optimal bias vector has span bounded by H, we show a regret bound of ~ O(HS p AT ). We also relate the span to various diameter-like quantities associated with the MDP, demonstrating how our results improve on previous regret bounds.

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We consider the problem of how to construct robust designs for Poisson regression models. An analytical expression is derived for robust designs for first-order Poisson regression models where uncertainty exists in the prior parameter estimates. Given certain constraints in the methodology, it may be necessary to extend the robust designs for implementation in practical experiments. With these extensions, our methodology constructs designs which perform similarly, in terms of estimation, to current techniques, and offers the solution in a more timely manner. We further apply this analytic result to cases where uncertainty exists in the linear predictor. The application of this methodology to practical design problems such as screening experiments is explored. Given the minimal prior knowledge that is usually available when conducting such experiments, it is recommended to derive designs robust across a variety of systems. However, incorporating such uncertainty into the design process can be a computationally intense exercise. Hence, our analytic approach is explored as an alternative.

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One of the fundamental motivations underlying computational cell biology is to gain insight into the complicated dynamical processes taking place, for example, on the plasma membrane or in the cytosol of a cell. These processes are often so complicated that purely temporal mathematical models cannot adequately capture the complex chemical kinetics and transport processes of, for example, proteins or vesicles. On the other hand, spatial models such as Monte Carlo approaches can have very large computational overheads. This chapter gives an overview of the state of the art in the development of stochastic simulation techniques for the spatial modelling of dynamic processes in a living cell.

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Unpacking the Entrepreneurial Process: A Step-by-Step Guide to a Successful Venture in the Entertainment Industry introduces a step-by-step guide to either students, entrepreneurs and intrapreneurs to fully understand the necessary steps to both unleash their entrepreneurial capabilities and to foster the development of new ones.

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Hydrotalcite and thermally activated hydrotalcites were examined for their potential as methods for the removal of oxalate anions from Bayer Process liquors. Hydrotalcite was prepared and characterised by a number of methods, including X-ray diffraction, thermogravimetric analysis, nitrogen adsorption analysis and vibrational spectroscopy. Thermally activated hydrotalcites were prepared by a low temperature method and characterised using X-ray diffraction, nitrogen adsorption analysis and vibrational spectroscopy. Oxalate intercalated hydrotalcite was prepared by two methods and analysed with X-ray diffraction and for the first time thermogravimetric analysis, Raman spectroscopy and infrared emission spectroscopy. The adsorption of oxalate anions by hydrotalcite and thermally activated hydrotalcite was tested in a range of solutions using both batch and kinetic adsorption models.

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The period from 1990-2003 was one of unprecedented curriculum change in the Queensland TAFE sector in general and Horticulture in particular. While curriculum theory had been clear for many years that teachers should be involved deeply in the curriculum process, data collected at the end of that period reveals that TAFE Horticulture teachers felt excluded and manipulated by the curriculum developers. With the benefit of distance, this thesis examines TAFE teachers’ conceptions of curriculum change in Horticulture and considers whether events since then have justified their reservations. The research paradigm of this study was informed by the qualitative research orientation of phenomenography based on extended interviews. The study revealed that teachers held eight qualitatively different conceptions of curriculum development. Some viewed the changes as representing a reduction in the quality of education, some as a retreat from education and training while others saw it as a reduction in the quality of teaching delivery. There were teachers who saw it as a way of saving money and others as causing instability and uncertainty, as exploitation of staff and a cause of extra (often unnecessary) work. Most saw the changes as imposed from above with the changes experienced as destructive to staff morale. Despite the generally negative conceptions of curriculum change, the study confirms the importance of teachers being regarded as central in the curriculum change process.

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The question of how to implement evidence effectively reveals a deficiency in our knowledge and understanding of the compound factors involved in such a process (Kitson, Rycroft-Malone et al. 2008). Although there is some awareness of the complexities of the process, there has been little exploration of the effectiveness of implementing evidence-based programs in health care. Despite public awareness of the dangers of smoking in pregnancy, and widespread public health measures to prevent smoking-related disease, women still continue to smoke in pregnancy (Ananth, Savitz et al. 1997; Laws and Hilder 2008). Evaluation of public health measures concludes that smoking cessation interventions during pregnancy increase quit rates among pregnant women (Melvin, Dolan-Mullen et al. 2000; Albrecht, Maloni et al. 2004; Lumley, Oliver et al. 2007). Notwithstanding the potential for improvement in health outcomes for pregnant women and their unborn babies, smoking interventions are often conducted poorly or not at all. Although midwives understand why women smoke in pregnancy and parenthood and are aware of the risks of smoking to both the pregnancy and the unborn child, they require specific knowledge and skills in the provision of support and advice on smoking for pregnant women (Bull and Whitehead 2006) . Organisational-change research demonstrates the complexity of the process of planned change in professionalised institutions such as health care (Greenhalgh, Robert et al. 2005). Some innovations and interventions are never accepted, and others are poorly supported (Greenhalgh, Robert et al. 2004). Comprehension of the change process around health promotion is crucial to the implementation of new health promotion interventions within health care (Riley, Taylor et al. 2003). This study utilised a case study approach to explore the process of implementing a smoking cessation training program for midwives in Queensland metropolitan and regional clinical areas, who attended a ‘Train-the-Trainer program’. The study draws on the organisational change work of Greenhalgh et al (2004) as the theoretical framework through which situational and structural factors are explored and examined as they inform the implementation of smoking cessation programs. The research data constituted staged interviews with midwives who instituted training programs for midwives, as well as organisational and policy documentation. Analysis of the data identified some areas that were not fully addressed in the theoretical model; these formed the basis of the Discussion and Implications for Future Research.

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Strategic communication is held to be a key process by which organisations respond to environmental uncertainty. In the received view articulated in the literatures of organisational communication and public relations, strategic communication results from collaborative efforts by organisational members to create shared understanding about environmental uncertainty and, as a result of this collective understanding, formulate appropriate communication responses. In this study, I explore how such collaborative efforts towards the development of strategic communication are derived from, and bounded by, culturally shared values and assumptions. Study of the influences of an organisation‟s culture on the formulation of strategic communication is a fundamental conceptual challenge for public relations and, to date, a largely unaddressed area of research. This thesis responds to this challenge by describing a key property of organisational culture – the action of cultural selection (Durham, 1992). I integrate this property of cultural selection to extend and refine the descriptive range of Weick‟s (1969, 1979) classic sociocultural model of organizing. From this integration I propose a new model, the Cultural Selection of Strategic Communication (CSSC). Underpinning the CSSC model is the central proposition that because of the action of cultural selection during organizing processes, the inherently conservative properties of an organisation‟s culture constrain development of effective strategic communication in ways that may be unrelated to the outcomes of “environmental scanning” and other monitoring functions heralded by the public relations literature as central to organisational adaptation. Thus, by examining the development of strategic communication, I describe a central conservative influence on the social ecology of organisations. This research also responds to Butschi and Steyn‟s (2006) call for the development of theory focusing on strategic communication as well as Grunig (2006) and Sriramesh‟s (2007) call for research to further understand the role of culture in public relations practice. In keeping with the explorative and descriptive goals of this study, I employ organisational ethnography to examine the influence of cultural selection on the development of strategic communication. In this methodological approach, I use the technique of progressive contextualisation to compare data from two related but distinct cultural settings. This approach provides a range of descriptive opportunities to permit a deeper understanding of the work of cultural selection. Findings of this study propose that culture, operating as a system of shared and socially transmitted social knowledge, acts through the property of cultural selection to influence decision making, and decrease conceptual variation within a group. The findings support the view that strategic communication, as a cultural product derived from the influence of cultural selection, is an essential feature to understand the social ecology of an organisation.

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This study explored whether intolerance of uncertainty and/or meta-worry discriminate between non-clinical individuals and those diagnosed with generalised anxiety disorder (GAD group). The participants were 107 GAD clients and 91 university students. The students were divided into two groups (high and low GAD symptom groups). A multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) adjusting for age indicated that intolerance of uncertainty distinguished between the low GAD symptom group and the high GAD symptom group, and between the low GAD symptom group and the GAD group. Meta-worry distinguished all three groups. A discriminant function including intolerance of uncertainty and meta-worry classified 94.4% of the GAD group and 97.9% of the low GAD symptom group. Only 6.8% of the high GAD symptom group was classified correctly, 77.3% of the high GAD symptom group was classified as GAD. Findings indicated that intolerance of uncertainty and meta-worry may assist with the diagnosis and treatment of GAD.

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This study explored how meta-worry and intolerance of uncertainty relate to pathological worry, generalised anxiety, obsessive compulsive disorder, social phobia, and depression. University students (n = 253) completed a questionnaire battery. A series of regression analyses were conducted. The results indicated that meta-worry was associated with GAD, social phobia, obsessive compulsive, and depressive symptoms. Intolerance of uncertainty was related to GAD, social phobia, and obsessive compulsive symptoms, but not depressive symptoms. The importance of meta-worry and intolerance of uncertainty as predictors of pathological worry, GAD, social phobia, obsessive compulsive and depressive symptoms was also examined. Even though both factors significantly predicted the aforementioned symptoms, meta-worry emerged as a stronger predictor of GAD and obsessive compulsive symptoms than did intolerance of uncertainty. Intolerance of uncertainty, compared with meta-worry, appeared as a stronger predictor of social phobia symptoms. Findings emphasise the importance of addressing meta-worry and/or intolerance of uncertainty not only for the assessment and treatment of generalised anxiety disorder (GAD), but also obsessive compulsive disorder, social phobia, and depression.

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Calibration process in micro-simulation is an extremely complicated phenomenon. The difficulties are more prevalent if the process encompasses fitting aggregate and disaggregate parameters e.g. travel time and headway. The current practice in calibration is more at aggregate level, for example travel time comparison. Such practices are popular to assess network performance. Though these applications are significant there is another stream of micro-simulated calibration, at disaggregate level. This study will focus on such microcalibration exercise-key to better comprehend motorway traffic risk level, management of variable speed limit (VSL) and ramp metering (RM) techniques. Selected section of Pacific Motorway in Brisbane will be used as a case study. The discussion will primarily incorporate the critical issues encountered during parameter adjustment exercise (e.g. vehicular, driving behaviour) with reference to key traffic performance indicators like speed, lane distribution and headway; at specific motorway points. The endeavour is to highlight the utility and implications of such disaggregate level simulation for improved traffic prediction studies. The aspects of calibrating for points in comparison to that for whole of the network will also be briefly addressed to examine the critical issues such as the suitability of local calibration at global scale. The paper will be of interest to transport professionals in Australia/New Zealand where micro-simulation in particular at point level, is still comparatively a less explored territory in motorway management.

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Project selection is a decision-making process that is not merely influenced by technical aspects but also by the people who involved in the process. Organisational culture is described as a set of values and norms that are shared by people within the organisation that affects the way they interact with each other and with stakeholders from outside the organisation. The aim of this paper is to emphasize the importance of organisational culture on improving the quality of decisions in the project selection process, in addition to the influence of technical aspects of a project. The discussion is based on an extensive literature review and, as such, represents the first part of a research agenda investigating the impact of organisational culture on the project selection process applicable specifically to road infrastructure contracts. Four existing models of organisational culture (Denison 1990; Cameron and Quinn 2006; Hofstede 2001; Glaser et al 1987) are discussed and reviewed in view of their use in the larger research project to investigate the impact of culture on identified critical elements of decision-making. An understating of the way organisational culture impacts on project selection will increase the likelihood in future of relevant government departments selecting projects that achieve their stated organisational goals.