Subtypes of Illicit Drug Users: A Latent Class Analysis of Data From an Australian Twin Sample

This article applies methods of latent class analysis (LCA) to data on lifetime illicit drug use in order to determine whether qualitatively distinct classes of illicit drug users can be identified. Self-report data on lifetime illicit drug use (cannabis, stimulants, hallucinogens, sedatives, inhalants, cocaine, opioids and solvents) collected from a sample of 6265 Australian twins (average age 30 years) were analyzed using LCA. Rates of childhood sexual and physical abuse, lifetime alcohol and tobacco dependence, symptoms of illicit drug abuse/dependence and psychiatric comorbidity were compared across classes using multinomial logistic regression. LCA identified a 5-class model: Class 1 (68.5%) had low risks of the use of all drugs except cannabis; Class 2 (17.8%) had moderate risks of the use of all drugs; Class 3 (6.6%) had high rates of cocaine, other stimulant and hallucinogen use but lower risks for the use of sedatives or opioids. Conversely, Class 4 (3.0%) had relatively low risks of cocaine, other stimulant or hallucinogen use but high rates of sedative and opioid use. Finally, Class 5 (4.2%) had uniformly high probabilities for the use of all drugs. Rates of psychiatric comorbidity were highest in the polydrug class although the sedative/opioid class had elevated rates of depression/suicidal behaviors and exposure to childhood abuse. Aggregation of population-level data may obscure important subgroup differences in patterns of illicit drug use and psychiatric comorbidity. Further exploration of a 'self-medicating' subgroup is needed.

Probabilistic world modelling for distributed team planning

This paper describes an application of decoupled probabilistic world modeling to achieve team planning. The research is based on the principle that tbe action selection mechanism of a member in a robot team cm select am effective action if a global world model is available to all team members. In the real world, the sensors are imprecise, and are individual to each robot, hence providing each robot a partial and unique view about the environment. We address this problem by creating a probabilistic global view on each agent by combining the perceptual information from each robot. This probsbilistie view forms the basis for selecting actions to achieve the team goal in a dynamic environment. Experiments have been carried ont to investigate the effectiveness of this principle using custom-built robots for real world performance, in addition, to extensive simulation results. The results show an improvement in team effectiveness when using probabilistic world modeling based on perception sharing for team planning.

How does your model grow? An empirical investigation of the effects of ontological clarity and application domain size on query performance

Semantic data models provide a map of the components of an information system. The characteristics of these models affect their usefulness for various tasks (e.g., information retrieval). The quality of information retrieval has obvious important consequences, both economic and otherwise. Traditionally, data base designers have produced parsimonious logical data models. In spite of their increased size, ontologically clearer conceptual models have been shown to facilitate better performance for both problem solving and information retrieval tasks in experimental settings. The experiments producing evidence of enhanced performance for ontologically clearer models have, however, used application domains of modest size. Data models in organizational settings are likely to be substantially larger than those used in these experiments. This research used an experiment to investigate whether the benefits of improved information retrieval performance associated with ontologically clearer models are robust as the size of the application domains increase. The experiment used an application domain of approximately twice the size as tested in prior experiments. The results indicate that, relative to the users of the parsimonious implementation, end users of the ontologically clearer implementation made significantly more semantic errors, took significantly more time to compose their queries, and were significantly less confident in the accuracy of their queries.

Semantic caching for multiresolution spatial query processing in mobile environments

Spatial data are particularly useful in mobile environments. However, due to the low bandwidth of most wireless networks, developing large spatial database applications becomes a challenging process. In this paper, we provide the first attempt to combine two important techniques, multiresolution spatial data structure and semantic caching, towards efficient spatial query processing in mobile environments. Based on the study of the characteristics of multiresolution spatial data (MSD) and multiresolution spatial query, we propose a new semantic caching model called Multiresolution Semantic Caching (MSC) for caching MSD in mobile environments. MSC enriches the traditional three-category query processing in semantic cache to five categories, thus improving the performance in three ways: 1) a reduction in the amount and complexity of the remainder queries; 2) the redundant transmission of spatial data already residing in a cache is avoided; 3) a provision for satisfactory answers before 100% query results have been transmitted to the client side. Our extensive experiments on a very large and complex real spatial database show that MSC outperforms the traditional semantic caching models significantly

Simulation of air traffic controllers' behaviour using the operator choice model

The Operator Choice Model (OCM) was developed to model the behaviour of operators attending to complex tasks involving interdependent concurrent activities, such as in Air Traffic Control (ATC). The purpose of the OCM is to provide a flexible framework for modelling and simulation that can be used for quantitative analyses in human reliability assessment, comparison between human computer interaction (HCI) designs, and analysis of operator workload. The OCM virtual operator is essentially a cycle of four processes: Scan Classify Decide Action Perform Action. Once a cycle is complete, the operator will return to the Scan process. It is also possible to truncate a cycle and return to Scan after each of the processes. These processes are described using Continuous Time Probabilistic Automata (CTPA). The details of the probability and timing models are specific to the domain of application, and need to be specified using domain experts. We are building an application of the OCM for use in ATC. In order to develop a realistic model we are calibrating the probability and timing models that comprise each process using experimental data from a series of experiments conducted with student subjects. These experiments have identified the factors that influence perception and decision making in simplified conflict detection and resolution tasks. This paper presents an application of the OCM approach to a simple ATC conflict detection experiment. The aim is to calibrate the OCM so that its behaviour resembles that of the experimental subjects when it is challenged with the same task. Its behaviour should also interpolate when challenged with scenarios similar to those used to calibrate it. The approach illustrated here uses logistic regression to model the classifications made by the subjects. This model is fitted to the calibration data, and provides an extrapolation to classifications in scenarios outside of the calibration data. A simple strategy is used to calibrate the timing component of the model, and the results for reaction times are compared between the OCM and the student subjects. While this approach to timing does not capture the full complexity of the reaction time distribution seen in the data from the student subjects, the mean and the tail of the distributions are similar.

Probabilistic cost benefit analysis of generation investment in a deregulated electricity market

A new methodology is proposed for the analysis of generation capacity investment in a deregulated market environment. This methodology proposes to make the investment appraisal using a probabilistic framework. The probabilistic production simulation (PPC) algorithm is used to compute the expected energy generated, taking into account system load variations and plant forced outage rates, while the Monte Carlo approach has been applied to model the electricity price variability seen in a realistic network. The model is able to capture the price and hence the profitability uncertainties for generator companies. Seasonal variation in the electricity prices and the system demand are independently modeled. The method is validated on IEEE RTS system, augmented with realistic market and plant data, by using it to compare the financial viability of several generator investments applying either conventional or directly connected generator (powerformer) technologies. The significance of the results is assessed using several financial risk measures.

Eigenvalue sensitivity analysis for probabilistic small signal stability assessment

This paper presents a method to analyze the first order eigenvalue sensitivity with respect to the operating parameters of a power system. The method is based on explicitly expressing the system state matrix into sub-matrices. The eigenvalue sensitivity is calculated based on the explicitly formed system state matrix. The 4th order generator model and 4th order exciter system model are used to form the system state matrix. A case study using New England 10-machine 39-bus system is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. This method can be applied into large scale power system eigenvalue sensitivity with respect to operating parameters.

Brain activity during automatic semantic priming revealed by event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging

Semantic priming occurs when a subject is faster in recognising a target word when it is preceded by a related word compared to an unrelated word. The effect is attributed to automatic or controlled processing mechanisms elicited by short or long interstimulus intervals (ISIs) between primes and targets. We employed event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) responses associated with automatic semantic priming using an experimental design identical to that used in standard behavioural priming tasks. Prime-target semantic strength was manipulated by using lexical ambiguity primes (e.g., bank) and target words related to dominant or subordinate meaning of the ambiguity. Subjects made speeded lexical decisions (word/nonword) on dominant related, subordinate related, and unrelated word pairs presented randomly with a short ISI. The major finding was a pattern of reduced activity in middle temporal and inferior prefrontal regions for dominant versus unrelated and subordinate versus unrelated comparisons, respectively. These findings are consistent with both a dual process model of semantic priming and recent repetition priming data that suggest that reductions in BOLD responses represent neural priming associated with automatic semantic activation and implicate the left middle temporal cortex and inferior prefrontal cortex in more automatic aspects of semantic processing.

Probabilistic visual recognition of artificial landmarks for simultaneous localization and mapping

Probabilistic robotics most often applied to the problem of simultaneous localisation and mapping (SLAM), requires measures of uncertainty to accompany observations of the environment. This paper describes how uncertainty can be characterised for a vision system that locates coloured landmarks in a typical laboratory environment. The paper describes a model of the uncertainty in segmentation, the internal cameral model and the mounting of the camera on the robot. It explains the implementation of the system on a laboratory robot, and provides experimental results that show the coherence of the uncertainty model.

EM optimization of latent-variable density models

There is currently considerable interest in developing general non-linear density models based on latent, or hidden, variables. Such models have the ability to discover the presence of a relatively small number of underlying `causes' which, acting in combination, give rise to the apparent complexity of the observed data set. Unfortunately, to train such models generally requires large computational effort. In this paper we introduce a novel latent variable algorithm which retains the general non-linear capabilities of previous models but which uses a training procedure based on the EM algorithm. We demonstrate the performance of the model on a toy problem and on data from flow diagnostics for a multi-phase oil pipeline.

A generative model for separating illumination and reflectance from images

It is well known that even slight changes in nonuniform illumination lead to a large image variability and are crucial for many visual tasks. This paper presents a new ICA related probabilistic model where the number of sources exceeds the number of sensors to perform an image segmentation and illumination removal, simultaneously. We model illumination and reflectance in log space by a generalized autoregressive process and Hidden Gaussian Markov random field, respectively. The model ability to deal with segmentation of illuminated images is compared with a Canny edge detector and homomorphic filtering. We apply the model to two problems: synthetic image segmentation and sea surface pollution detection from intensity images.

CORD an object model supporting statistical summary information for management decision making

Information systems have developed to the stage that there is plenty of data available in most organisations but there are still major problems in turning that data into information for management decision making. This thesis argues that the link between decision support information and transaction processing data should be through a common object model which reflects the real world of the organisation and encompasses the artefacts of the information system. The CORD (Collections, Objects, Roles and Domains) model is developed which is richer in appropriate modelling abstractions than current Object Models. A flexible Object Prototyping tool based on a Semantic Data Storage Manager has been developed which enables a variety of models to be stored and experimented with. A statistical summary table model COST (Collections of Objects Statistical Table) has been developed within CORD and is shown to be adequate to meet the modelling needs of Decision Support and Executive Information Systems. The COST model is supported by a statistical table creator and editor COSTed which is also built on top of the Object Prototyper and uses the CORD model to manage its metadata.

Do changes in transglutaminase activity alter latent transforming growth factor beta activation in experimental diabetic nephropathy?

Background. Diabetic nephropathy is the leading cause of end-stage kidney failure worldwide. It is characterized by excessive extracellular matrix accumulation. Transforming growth factor beta 1 (TGF-ß1) is a fibrogenic cytokine playing a major role in the healing process and scarring by regulating extracellular matrix turnover, cell proliferation and epithelial mesanchymal transdifferentiation. Newly synthesized TGF-ß is released as a latent, biologically inactive complex. The cross-linking of the large latent TGF-ß to the extracellular matrix by transglutaminase 2 (TG2) is one of the key mechanisms of recruitment and activation of this cytokine. TG2 is an enzyme catalyzing an acyl transfer reaction leading to the formation of a stable e(?-glutamyl)-lysine cross-link between peptides.Methods. To investigate if changes in TG activity can modulate TGF-ß1 activation, we used the mink lung cell bioassay to assess TGF-ß activity in the streptozotocin model of diabetic nephropathy treated with TG inhibitor NTU281 and in TG2 overexpressing opossum kidney (OK) proximal tubular epithelial cells.Results. Application of the site-directed TG inhibitor NTU281 caused a 25% reduction in kidney levels of active TGF-ß1. Specific upregulation of TG2 in OK proximal tubular epithelial cells increased latent TGF-ß recruitment and activation by 20.7% and 19.7%, respectively, in co-cultures with latent TGF-ß binding protein producing fibroblasts.Conclusions. Regulation of TG2 directly influences the level of active TGF-ß1, and thus, TG inhibition may exert a renoprotective effect by targeting not only a direct extracellular matrix deposition but also TGF-ß1 activation and recruitment.

A Bayesian state space modelling approach to probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting

The generation of very short range forecasts of precipitation in the 0-6 h time window is traditionally referred to as nowcasting. Most existing nowcasting systems essentially extrapolate radar observations in some manner, however, very few systems account for the uncertainties involved. Thus deterministic forecast are produced, which have a limited use when decisions must be made, since they have no measure of confidence or spread of the forecast. This paper develops a Bayesian state space modelling framework for quantitative precipitation nowcasting which is probabilistic from conception. The model treats the observations (radar) as noisy realisations of the underlying true precipitation process, recognising that this process can never be completely known, and thus must be represented probabilistically. In the model presented here the dynamics of the precipitation are dominated by advection, so this is a probabilistic extrapolation forecast. The model is designed in such a way as to minimise the computational burden, while maintaining a full, joint representation of the probability density function of the precipitation process. The update and evolution equations avoid the need to sample, thus only one model needs be run as opposed to the more traditional ensemble route. It is shown that the model works well on both simulated and real data, but that further work is required before the model can be used operationally. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A linguistic and semantic approach to the theory and practice of literary translation

This work explores the relevance of semantic and linguistic description to translation, theory and practice. It is aimed towards a practical model of approach to texts to translate. As literary texts [poetry mainly] are the focus of attention, so are stylistic matters. Note, however, that 'style', and, to some extent, the conclusions of the work, are not limited to so-called literary texts. The study of semantic description reveals that most translation problems do not stem from the cognitive (langue-related), but rather from the contextual (parole-related) aspects of meaning. Thus, any linguistic model that fails to account for the latter is bound to fall short. T.G.G. does, whereas Systemics, concerned with both the 'Iangue' and 'parole' (stylistic and sociolinguistic mainly) aspects of meaning, provides a useful framework of approach to texts to translate. Two essential semantic principles for translation are: that meaning is the property of a language (Firth); and the 'relativity of meaning assignments' (Tymoczko). Both imply that meaning can only be assessed, correctly, in the relevant socio-cultural background. Translation is seen as a restricted creation, and the translator's encroach as a three-dimensional critical one. To encompass the most technical to the most literary text, and account for variations in emphasis in any text, translation theory must be based on typology of function Halliday's ideational, interpersonal and textual, or, Buhler's symbol, signal, symptom, Functions3. Function Coverall and specific] will dictate aims and method, and also provide the critic with criteria to assess translation Faithfulness. Translation can never be reduced to purely objective methods, however. Intuitive procedures intervene, in textual interpretation and analysis, in the choice of equivalents, and in the reception of a translation. Ultimately, translation, theory and practice, may perhaps constitute the touchstone as regards the validity of linguistic and semantic theories.