Decision Making for Teams of Mobile Robots

In the past years, we could observe a significant amount of new robotic systems in science, industry, and everyday life. To reduce the complexity of these systems, the industry constructs robots that are designated for the execution of a specific task such as vacuum cleaning, autonomous driving, observation, or transportation operations. As a result, such robotic systems need to combine their capabilities to accomplish complex tasks that exceed the abilities of individual robots. However, to achieve emergent cooperative behavior, multi-robot systems require a decision process that copes with the communication challenges of the application domain. This work investigates a distributed multi-robot decision process, which addresses unreliable and transient communication. This process composed by five steps, which we embedded into the ALICA multi-agent coordination language guided by the PROViDE negotiation middleware. The first step encompasses the specification of the decision problem, which is an integral part of the ALICA implementation. In our decision process, we describe multi-robot problems by continuous nonlinear constraint satisfaction problems. The second step addresses the calculation of solution proposals for this problem specification. Here, we propose an efficient solution algorithm that integrates incomplete local search and interval propagation techniques into a satisfiability solver, which forms a satisfiability modulo theories (SMT) solver. In the third decision step, the PROViDE middleware replicates the solution proposals among the robots. This replication process is parameterized with a distribution method, which determines the consistency properties of the proposals. In a fourth step, we investigate the conflict resolution. Therefore, an acceptance method ensures that each robot supports one of the replicated proposals. As we integrated the conflict resolution into the replication process, a sound selection of the distribution and acceptance methods leads to an eventual convergence of the robot proposals. In order to avoid the execution of conflicting proposals, the last step comprises a decision method, which selects a proposal for implementation in case the conflict resolution fails. The evaluation of our work shows that the usage of incomplete solution techniques of the constraint satisfaction solver outperforms the runtime of other state-of-the-art approaches for many typical robotic problems. We further show by experimental setups and practical application in the RoboCup environment that our decision process is suitable for making quick decisions in the presence of packet loss and delay. Moreover, PROViDE requires less memory and bandwidth compared to other state-of-the-art middleware approaches.

Caracterização e Factores que Influenciam o Desempenho dos Bombeiros Profissionais: estudo exploratório

É indubitável que a decisão está presente no dia-a-dia de todos nós, independentemente do tipo de actividade em que estamos envolvidos. Na vida organizacional, enfrentamos muitas situações que exigem uma resposta momentânea, aqui denominadas de imediatas, as quais não permitem uma recolha de informação adequada, tempo para reflexão, discussão e troca de ideias, entre outras restrições. Além das limitações já citadas por outros autores, como a própria capacidade cognitiva do indivíduo, faculdade de processamento, há outros elementos que influenciam o processo de tomada de decisão, especialmente em ambientes sob pressão e em constante mutação, como é o dos bombeiros. O presente trabalho procura conhecer quais os factores que influenciam a tomada de decisão de bombeiros profissionais com funções de chefia, em ocorrências de incêndios urbanos e acidentes de viação. Neste contexto, foram abordados alguns enquadramentos para a tomada de decisão, como o Modelo da Tomada de Decisão da Primeira Opção Identificada (TDPOI) de Gary Klein, entre outros. No sentido de aprofundar a nossa investigação, foram realizados dois estudos exploratórios através de entrevistas presenciais. A amostra é constituída por 14 profissionais do sector, entre eles bombeiros com funções de chefia, comandantes e delegados sindicais. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que a experiência e a formação são os factores que se evidenciam, e influenciam a decisão dos bombeiros. Constatamos que nos Bombeiros Portugueses a experiência é uma característica dos decisores, pois são eles que farão as opções de alto risco. Por outro lado, apesar de a formação visar a aquisição de competências profissionais, nomeadamente na área da decisão, esta carece de actualização, porque não satisfaz as necessidades dos bombeiros. Apresentam-se também as principais limitações do estudo e sugestões para investigações futuras. / Undoubtedly, the decision is present in day-to-day for us all, regardless of the type of activity we are involved. In organizational life, we face many situations that require a momentary response, here called the immediate, which do not allow collection of adequate information, time for reflection, discussion and exchange of ideas, among other restrictions. Besides the limitations already mentioned by other authors, as the individual's cognitive capacity, processing power, there are other factors that influence the decision-making process, especially in environments under pressure and constantly changing, as is the Fire. This paper seeks to know which factors influence the decision making of professional firefighters with leadership roles in urban fire occurrences and accidents. In this context, we discuss some frameworks for decision making, as the Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) Model by Gary Klein, among others. In order to further our investigation, two exploratory studies were conducted through personal interviews. The sample consists of 14 professionals, including firefighters with executive functions, commanders and union representatives. The results showed that the experience and training are factors that are evident, and influence the decision of the firefighters. We note that the Portuguese Firemen experience is a characteristic of decision-makers because they are options that will make high-risk. On the other hand, although the training to aim at the acquisition of professional skills, particularly in the area of decision, it needs updating, because it meets the needs of firefighters. We present also the main limitations of the study and suggestions for future investigations.

How do Small Players Deduce Beliefs about Uncertainty? A Look at Texas Shale Oil Investments

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Systems of exchange values as tools for multi-agent organizations

This paper introduces systems of exchange values as tools for the organization of multi-agent systems. Systems of exchange values are defined on the basis of the theory of social exchanges, developed by Piaget and Homans. A model of social organization is proposed, where social relations are construed as social exchanges and exchange values are put into use in the support of the continuity of the performance of social exchanges. The dynamics of social organizations is formulated in terms of the regulation of exchanges of values, so that social equilibrium is connected to the continuity of the interactions. The concept of supervisor of social equilibrium is introduced as a centralized mechanism for solving the problem of the equilibrium of the organization The equilibrium supervisor solves such problem making use of a qualitative Markov Decision Process that uses numerical intervals for the representation of exchange values.

Contribution à la planification tactique et opérationnelle du transport forestier

Cette thèse est une contribution à la modélisation, la planification et l’optimisation du transport pour l’approvisionnement en bois de forêt des industries de première transformation. Dans ce domaine, les aléas climatiques (mise au sol des bois par les tempêtes), sanitaires (attaques bactériologiques et fongiques des bois) et commerciaux (variabilité et exigence croissante des marchés) poussent les divers acteurs du secteur (entrepreneurs et exploitants forestiers, transporteurs) à revoir l’organisation de la filière logistique d’approvisionnement, afin d’améliorer la qualité de service (adéquation offre-demande) et de diminuer les coûts. L’objectif principal de cette thèse était de proposer un modèle de pilotage améliorant la performance du transport forestier, en respectant les contraintes et les pratiques du secteur. Les résultats établissent une démarche de planification hiérarchique des activités de transport à deux niveaux de décision, tactique et opérationnel. Au niveau tactique, une optimisation multi-périodes permet de répondre aux commandes en minimisant l’activité globale de transport, sous contrainte de capacité agrégée des moyens de transport accessibles. Ce niveau permet de mettre en œuvre des politiques de lissage de charge et d’organisation de sous-traitance ou de partenariats entre acteurs de transport. Au niveau opérationnel, les plans tactiques alloués à chaque transporteur sont désagrégés, pour permettre une optimisation des tournées des flottes, sous contrainte des capacités physiques de ces flottes. Les modèles d’optimisation de chaque niveau sont formalisés en programmation linéaire mixte avec variables binaires. L’applicabilité des modèles a été testée en utilisant un jeu de données industrielles en région Aquitaine et a montré des améliorations significatives d’exploitation des capacités de transport par rapport aux pratiques actuelles. Les modèles de décision ont été conçus pour s’adapter à tout contexte organisationnel, partenarial ou non : la production du plan tactique possède un caractère générique sans présomption de l’organisation, celle-ci étant prise en compte, dans un deuxième temps, au niveau de l’optimisation opérationnelle du plan de transport de chaque acteur.

Understanding information use in multiattribute decision making

An inference task in one in which some known set of information is used to produce an estimate about an unknown quantity. Existing theories of how humans make inferences include specialized heuristics that allow people to make these inferences in familiar environments quickly and without unnecessarily complex computation. Specialized heuristic processing may be unnecessary, however; other research suggests that the same patterns in judgment can be explained by existing patterns in encoding and retrieving memories. This dissertation compares and attempts to reconcile three alternate explanations of human inference. After justifying three hierarchical Bayesian version of existing inference models, the three models are com- pared on simulated, observed, and experimental data. The results suggest that the three models capture different patterns in human behavior but, based on posterior prediction using laboratory data, potentially ignore important determinants of the decision process.

Hydrometallurgical process modeling using advanced mathematical tools

Hydrometallurgical process modeling is the main objective of this Master’s thesis work. Three different leaching processes namely, high pressure pyrite oxidation, direct oxidation zinc concentrate (sphalerite) leaching and gold chloride leaching using rotating disc electrode (RDE) are modeled and simulated using gPROMS process simulation program in order to evaluate its model building capabilities. The leaching mechanism in each case is described in terms of a shrinking core model. The mathematical modeling carried out included process model development based on available literature, estimation of reaction kinetic parameters and assessment of the model reliability by checking the goodness fit and checking the cross correlation between the estimated parameters through the use of correlation matrices. The estimated parameter values in each case were compared with those obtained using the Modest simulation program. Further, based on the estimated reaction kinetic parameters, reactor simulation and modeling for direct oxidation zinc concentrate (sphalerite) leaching is carried out in Aspen Plus V8.6. The zinc leaching autoclave is based on Cominco reactor configuration and is modeled as a series of continuous stirred reactors (CSTRs). The sphalerite conversion is calculated and a sensitivity analysis is carried out so to determine the optimum reactor operation temperature and optimum oxygen mass flow rate. In this way, the implementation of reaction kinetic models into the process flowsheet simulation environment has been demonstrated.

Multi-Agent Simulation and Management Practices

Intelligent agents offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. Agent-Based Simulation (ABS), one way of using intelligent agents, carries great potential for progressing our understanding of management practices and how they link to retail performance. We have developed simulation models based on research by a multi-disciplinary team of economists, work psychologists and computer scientists. We will discuss our experiences of implementing these concepts working with a well-known retail department store. There is no doubt that management practices are linked to the performance of an organisation (Reynolds et al., 2005; Wall & Wood, 2005). Best practices have been developed, but when it comes down to the actual application of these guidelines considerable ambiguity remains regarding their effectiveness within particular contexts (Siebers et al., forthcoming a). Most Operational Research (OR) methods can only be used as analysis tools once management practices have been implemented. Often they are not very useful for giving answers to speculative ‘what-if’ questions, particularly when one is interested in the development of the system over time rather than just the state of the system at a certain point in time. Simulation can be used to analyse the operation of dynamic and stochastic systems. ABS is particularly useful when complex interactions between system entities exist, such as autonomous decision making or negotiation. In an ABS model the researcher explicitly describes the decision process of simulated actors at the micro level. Structures emerge at the macro level as a result of the actions of the agents and their interactions with other agents and the environment. We will show how ABS experiments can deal with testing and optimising management practices such as training, empowerment or teamwork. Hence, questions such as “will staff setting their own break times improve performance?” can be investigated.

Hope for a peaceful death and organ donation

The therapeutic, social and economic benefits of organ transplantation are irrefutable; however, organ shortages contribute to avoidable patient deaths and burgeoning health care costs. This problem can be addressed by increasing family consent to deceased organ donation. There are high levels of community support for deceased organ donation in Australia and yet, almost fifty percent of families decline the request to donate. Increasing the number of families who agree to deceased organ donation is key to increasing national and international transplantation rates. The purpose of this study was to identify the major factors that influence a family to agree or decline deceased organ donation during the process of decision-making. The aims of the study were three-fold: to identify the key stages and the major influencers’ in the decisionmaking process; to determine if hope, deep hope and trust played a role in the decision, and to explore families’ perceptions of their decision-making experience. The study utilised an exploratory case study approach to examine the family decisionmaking process of deceased organ donation. Following ethics approval, recruitment was conducted utilising a qualitative purposive snowball strategy across Australia. A pilot study was conducted to test the study procedures prior to the main data collection, and 22 participants who had been involved in a deceased organ donation decision from nine families were interviewed. In five deaths family members had agreed to organ donation, and in four deaths the family declined. A theoretical framework based on the Precaution Adoption Process Model of decision-making was applied to propose trust, hope and deep hope underpin family organ donation decisions. Thematic analysis was conducted and three key themes comprising ‘In the fog drowning’, ‘Harvesting humanity’, and ‘It’s all up to Mum’ were revealed. The study found women, and in particular mothers, played a significant role in organ donation decision-making, and that the decision-making is bounded by family needs of trust, hope and deep hope across the continuum of time. It also found families who had their trust, hope and deep hope needs met expressed satisfaction about their decision-making experience and agreed to organ donation. Some families perceived that organ donation was a sacrifice that was too great to endure, even if the deceased had previously indicated intent to donate, and therefore declined donation. This study found that families’ ideas of a peaceful death and organ donation are not mutually exclusive. It concludes that when decision-makers’ trust and deep hope needs are met they are more willing to agree to donation. This study recommends that the idea of a ‘right’ to a peaceful death should be aligned with deceased organ donation practices and normalised.

SEQUENTIAL DECISIONS AND PREDICTIONS IN NATURAL LANGUAGE PROCESSING

Natural language processing has achieved great success in a wide range of ap- plications, producing both commercial language services and open-source language tools. However, most methods take a static or batch approach, assuming that the model has all information it needs and makes a one-time prediction. In this disser- tation, we study dynamic problems where the input comes in a sequence instead of all at once, and the output must be produced while the input is arriving. In these problems, predictions are often made based only on partial information. We see this dynamic setting in many real-time, interactive applications. These problems usually involve a trade-off between the amount of input received (cost) and the quality of the output prediction (accuracy). Therefore, the evaluation considers both objectives (e.g., plotting a Pareto curve). Our goal is to develop a formal understanding of sequential prediction and decision-making problems in natural language processing and to propose efficient solutions. Toward this end, we present meta-algorithms that take an existent batch model and produce a dynamic model to handle sequential inputs and outputs. Webuild our framework upon theories of Markov Decision Process (MDP), which allows learning to trade off competing objectives in a principled way. The main machine learning techniques we use are from imitation learning and reinforcement learning, and we advance current techniques to tackle problems arising in our settings. We evaluate our algorithm on a variety of applications, including dependency parsing, machine translation, and question answering. We show that our approach achieves a better cost-accuracy trade-off than the batch approach and heuristic-based decision- making approaches. We first propose a general framework for cost-sensitive prediction, where dif- ferent parts of the input come at different costs. We formulate a decision-making process that selects pieces of the input sequentially, and the selection is adaptive to each instance. Our approach is evaluated on both standard classification tasks and a structured prediction task (dependency parsing). We show that it achieves similar prediction quality to methods that use all input, while inducing a much smaller cost. Next, we extend the framework to problems where the input is revealed incremen- tally in a fixed order. We study two applications: simultaneous machine translation and quiz bowl (incremental text classification). We discuss challenges in this set- ting and show that adding domain knowledge eases the decision-making problem. A central theme throughout the chapters is an MDP formulation of a challenging problem with sequential input/output and trade-off decisions, accompanied by a learning algorithm that solves the MDP.

Towards Automated Business Process Deduction through a Social and Collaborative Platform

Part 12: Collaboration Platforms

Gestão de Informação e do Conhecimento

Nos últimos anos, a Gestão de Informação e do Conhecimento (GIC) tem despertado um interesse cada vez maior por parte da comunidade científica e de prestigiadas organizações empresariais e governamentais. A incorporação organizacional desta disciplina possibilitou a correção de lacunas de informação e de conhecimento, contribuindo eficazmente para a superioridade de informação. Desta maneira, este estudo tem por objetivo determinar as opções que permitirão ao Exército Português maximizar a sua eficácia no âmbito da GIC. Posto isto, analisar-se-á primeiramente o impacto da “era da informação” na atual gestão organizacional. Em seguida, proceder-se-á à avaliação do modelo de GIC que melhor servirá uma organização tipo Exército Português, verificando-se, numa fase final, quais os aspetos que caracterizam o atual modelo em vigor no Exército e qual o seu impacto na sua gestão estratégica. Por último, conclui-se com o presente estudo que se encontra em curso uma transformação ao nível de toda a cultura organizacional do Exército, uma vez que a mesma passa a centralizar o seu processo de decisão em rede. Para isso, torna-se essencial a implementação eficaz da GIC, o que é apenas é praticável com a definição de uma estratégia e de um plano de ação para a sua eficaz materialização. Abstract: The Information and Knowledge Management (IKM) is beginning to awaken a growing interest in the academic world as well as in large organizations globally. The implementation of this type of capability allows bridging the information and knowledge gaps contributing to achieve in organizational terms the information superiority. This study focuses on determining the options that will allow the Portuguese Army in order to maximize its effectiveness within the IKM. To achieve this purpose, it begins by analyzing how the "information age" influences the management of organizations. Next, we evaluate which model of IKM that could best serve an organization like the Portuguese Army and finally we analyze which aspects characterizing the current IKM model in the Army and its impact on its Strategic Management. We conclude that the Army is crossing a transformation of the whole organizational culture passing this to centralize its decision process through the network changing the whole paradigm of sharing and obligation to share. For this, it is essential to the implementation of the IKM capacity and this is only possible with the definition of a strategy and action plan for the implementation of this strategy.

l'importanza della modellazione dei processi applicata ad un caso aziendale

La pianificazione e la gestione dei processi è diventata un elemento critico a causa della crescente complessità delle attività all’interno delle organizzazioni. Nell’era dell’impresa digitale, la gestione dei processi di businesss viene coadiuvata mediante l’utilizzo di sistemi software che sono in grado di gestire una grande quantità di informazioni ovvero i sistemi BPM. Il Business Performance Management è una disciplina gestionale che si occupa di descrivere e gestire i processi di business di una organizzazione. L’obiettivo della seguente tesi è verificare se il modello del processo realizzato precedentemente all’implementazione del sistema reale possa permettere una più dettagliata analisi del sistema e anticipare relative problematiche che talvolta si evincono solamente durante il mero sviluppo. Inoltre si vuole verificare se il modello realizzato in fase di discussione di un nuovo progetto cliente possa poi migliorare anche lo scambio di informazioni nel team di sviluppo. A supporto di questa tesi è stato sviluppato un caso di studio reale in una società di gestione del risparmio specializzata in fondi di investimento immobiliare. Inizialmente si è proceduto con una prima fase di raccolta dei requisiti dell’applicativo che si è conclusa con la realizzazione dei modelli creati utilizzando due linguaggi che sono il Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) e il Decision Model and Notation (DMN); il medesimo applicativo è stato successivamente implementato seguendo i modelli realizzati. I tempi globali di sviluppo del sistema e la migliore comprensione del modello da parte del team di sviluppo hanno fatto evincere l’utilità della modellazione a fronte di maggiori giornate uomo. Inoltre è stata riscontata maggiore manutenibilità complessiva del sistema.

Análisis de la toma de decisiones a nivel del alto gobierno, durante la crisis del Palacio de Justicia en noviembre de 1985.

El objetivo de este estudio, consiste en el análisis de la toma de decisiones del gabinete ministerial del presidente Belisario Betancur, durante la crisis de la toma del Palacio de Justicia por parte del M-19, durante los días 6 y 7 de noviembre de 1985. Para ello, se utilizará un enfoque histórico sociológico e institucional, realizando una revisión documental para describir los hechos previos a la toma del Palacio de Justicia, examinar el escalamiento de la crisis y explicar el proceso de toma de decisiones a nivel del alto gobierno, durante el desarrollo de la toma militar del Palacio. De esta forma se busca comprobar, utilizando principalmente el modelo de políticas gubernamentales de Graham T. Allison, que durante el proceso de toma de decisiones no se realizó un adecuado análisis del contexto, no se tuvo en cuenta los factores psicológicos de cada actor del conflicto, ni hubo claridad sobre el rol que desempeñó cada uno dentro de la mencionada crisis, creando las condiciones para el desenlace violento que generó el conocido Holocausto del Palacio de Justicia.

A estrutura organizacional das bibliotecas universitárias em Portugal

Este estudo tem como objetivo definir linhas orientadoras para as estruturas organizacionais em bibliotecas universitárias portuguesas e baseia-se numa investigação que fez uso de métodos diversificados, tanto quantitativos (em extensão), como qualitativos (em profundidade), e cotejou os dados assim obtidos com as práticas mais inovadoras em bibliotecas de diversos países do mundo. Foi feito o enquadramento teórico, para temas relacionados com os da investigação, como as teorias da gestão, as estruturas organizacionais, a liderança, a motivação, a comunicação e o processo de mudança nas organizações. Considerando o meio onde se integram estas bibliotecas, identificaram-se os principais aspetos da política educativa no ensino superior europeu e português. A revisão da literatura permitiu recolher informação sobre algumas tendências mais recentes nas bibliotecas universitárias, em geral e em Portugal. Foram identificadas as tipologias de estruturas organizacionais, as transformações que as mesmas têm sofrido noutros países e que soluções foram encontradas. A partir dos dados recolhidos com o questionário, caracterizaram-se estas bibliotecas portuguesas e os resultados indicam que há uma grande diversidade e que, em grande parte as suas estruturas organizacionais foram alteradas. Com o estudo de caso, detalharam-se aspetos dessas alterações. Concluiu-se que, com as alterações no ensino superior, as bibliotecas podem ter um papel mais ativo no processo de ensino-aprendizagem. As alterações em estruturas organizacionais de bibliotecas universitárias portuguesas ocorreram, na sua grande parte, por razões legais e houve participação das chefias das bibliotecas e dos técnicos superiores especializados em ciências da informação. As novas estruturas organizacionais procuram adaptar-se às transformações externas e internas, optando por estruturas mais flexíveis que incentivam a participação de todos os funcionários na inovação e tomadas de decisão. Como linhas orientadoras, foram indicados um conjunto de princípios por não ser possível um modelo ideal a aplicar em todas as bibliotecas. Cada caso encontrará uma solução que deverá ser continuamente analisada e adaptada à realidade; Organizational structure of university libraries in Portugal Abstract: The purpose of this study is to define guidelines for the organizational structures of Portuguese university libraries and it is based on a research that used as quantitative (in range) as qualitative (in depth) methods and compared the findings with the most innovative practices in libraries all over the world. An approach was made to the theoretical areas of management, organizational structures, leadership, motivation, communication and the process of change in organizations. Considering that these libraries act in higher education institutions it was referred the education policy for higher education, in Europe and in Portugal. The literature review allowed collecting information about the more recent tendencies of the university libraries in general and in Portugal. The organizational structures models were identified as their changes and solutions. From the data from the questionnaire the Portuguese university libraries were described and the results show there is a great variety among them and most of them have transformed their organizational structures. The case study allowed obtaining more information about the process of change in the three selected libraries. It was concluded that, with the changes of higher education, the libraries can play a more active role in the teaching and learning process. The changes of the organizational structures in the Portuguese university libraries occurred mostly for legal reasons and the top of the libraries hierarchy and librarians participated. With the new organizational structures libraries have made all the efforts to adapt to the external and internal transformations with more flexible structures encouraging all staff to participate with ideas and to take part in the decision process. For the guidelines it was pointed out a set of principles to follow as it is not possible to have an ideal model to apply to all the libraries. Each library must find a solution that will be continually analyzed and adapted.