A two-factor model of the U.K. yield curve

I model the forward premium in the U.K. gilt-edged market over the period 1982–96 using a two-factor general equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates. The model permits the decomposition of the forward premium into separate components representing interest rate expectations, the risk premia associated with each of the underlying factors, and terms capturing the direct impact of the variances of the factors on the shape of the forward curve.

Innovation in the pharmaceutical industry:a study of the effects of regulation on the U.K. pharmaceutical industry

A history of government drug regulation and the relationship between the pharmaceutical companies in the U.K. and the licensing authority is outlined. Phases of regulatory stringency are identified with the formation of the Committees on Safety of Drugs and Medicines viewed as watersheds. A study of the impact of government regulation on industrial R&D activities focuses on the effects on the rate and direction of new product innovation. A literature review examines the decline in new chemical entity innovation. Regulations are cited as a major but not singular cause of the decline. Previous research attempting to determine the causes of such a decline on an empirical basis is given and the methodological problems associated with such research are identified. The U.K. owned sector of the British pharmaceutical industry is selected for a study employing a bottom-up approach allowing disaggregation of data. A historical background to the industry is provided, with each company analysed or a case study basis. Variations between companies regarding the policies adopted for R&D are emphasised. The process of drug innovation is described in order to determine possible indicators of the rate and direction of inventive and innovative activity. All possible indicators are considered and their suitability assessed. R&D expenditure data for the period 1960-1983 is subsequently presented as an input indicator. Intermediate output indicators are treated in a similar way and patent data are identified as a readily-available and useful source. The advantages and disadvantages of using such data are considered. Using interview material, patenting policies for most of the U.K. companies are described providing a background for a patent-based study. Sources of patent data are examined with an emphasis on computerised systems. A number of searches using a variety of sources are presented. Patent family size is examined as a possible indicator of an invention's relative importance. The patenting activity of the companies over the period 1960-1983 is given and the variation between companies is noted. The relationship between patent data and other indicators used is analysed using statistical methods resulting in an apparent lack of correlation. An alternative approach taking into account variations in company policy and phases in research activity indicates a stronger relationship between patenting activity, R&D Expenditure and NCE output over the period. The relationship is not apparent at an aggregated company level. Some evidence is presented for a relationship between phases of regulatory stringency, inventive and innovative activity but the importance of other factors is emphasised.

Effect of an inservice on the teachers' knowledge of general school law, Section 504, and the Meta Consent Decree

It is generally assumed by educators that inservice training will make a significant difference in teacher knowledge of topics related to education. This investigation addressed that assumption by examining the effects of various factors, e.g., amount and timing of inservice training, upon teacher knowledge of educational law. Of special interest was teacher knowledge of the law as it pertained to ethnic and other characteristics of students in urban school settings. This study was deliberately designed to determine which factors should be later investigated in a more deterministic form, e.g., an experimental design.^ The investigation built upon that of Ogletree (1985), Osborne (1996) and others who focused on the importance of teacher development as a method to enhance professional abilities. The main question addressed in this study was, "How knowledgeable are teachers of school law, especially with regard to general school law, the Meta Consent Decree and Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973."^ The study participants (N = 302) were from the Dade County School System, the fourth largest in the U.S. The survey design (approved by the System), specified participants from all levels and types of schools and geographic representations. A survey instrument was created, pilot tested, revised and approved for use by the district official representatives. After administration of the instrument, the resultant data was treated by several appropriate tests, e.g., multivariate analysis of variance (ANOVA).^ Several findings emerged from the analysis of the data: in general, teachers did not have sufficient knowledge of school law; factors, such as amount and level of education, and status and position were positively correlated with increased knowledge; factors such as years of experience, gender, race and ethnicity were not correlated with higher levels of knowledge. The most significant, however, was that when teachers had participated in several inservice training experiences, typically workshops, and, when combined with other factors noted above, their knowledge of school law was significantly higher. Specific recommendations for future studies were made. ^

How current pedagogy methods in games teaching in the UK, Australia and the US have been shaped by historical, socio cultural, environmental and political constraints

Crucial to enhancing the status and quality of games teaching in schools is a developed understanding of the teaching strategies adopted by practitioners. In this paper, we will demonstrate that contemporary games‟ teaching is a product of individual, task and environmental constraints (Newell, 1986). More specifically, we will show that current pedagogy in the U.K., Australia and the United States is strongly influenced by historical, socio-cultural environmental and political constraints. In summary, we will aim to answer the question „why do teachers teach games the way they do.‟ In answering this question, we conclude that teacher educators, who are trying to influence pedagogical practice, must understand these potential constraints and provide appropriate pre-service experiences to give future physical education teachers the knowledge, confidence and ability to adopt a range of teaching styles when they become fully fledged teachers. Essential to this process is the need to enable future practitioners to base their pedagogical practice on a sound understanding of contemporary learning theories of skill acquisition.

Sporadic childhood Burkitt lymphoma incidence in the United States during 1992-2005

Background The risk factors and co-factors for sporadic childhood BL are unknown. We investigated demographic and age-specific characteristics of childhood BL (0–14 years) in the U.S. Procedure BL age-standardized incidence rates (2000 U.S. standard population), were calculated using data obtained from 12 registries in the NCI’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program for cases diagnosed from 1992 through 2005. Incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated by gender, age-group, race, ethnicity, calendar-year period, and registry. Results Of 296 cases identified, 56% were diagnosed in lymph nodes, 21% in abdominal organs, not including retroperitoneal lymph nodes, 14% were Burkitt cell leukemia, and 9% on face/head structures. The male-to-female case ratio was highest for facial/head tumors (25:1) and lowest for Burkitt cell leukemia (1.6:1). BL incidence rate was 2.5 (95% CI 2.3–2.8) cases per million person-years and was higher among boys than girls (3.9 vs. 1.1, p<0.001) and higher among Whites and Asians/Pacific Islanders than among Blacks (2.8 and 2.9 vs.1.2, respectively, p<0.001). By ethnicity, BL incidence was higher among non-Hispanic Whites than Hispanic Whites (3.2 vs. 2.0, p=0.002). Age-specific incidence rate for BL peaked by age 3–5 years (3.4 cases per million), then stabilized or declined with increasing age, but it did not vary with calendar-year or registry area. Conclusions Our results indicate that early childhood exposures, male-sex, and White race may be risk factors for sporadic childhood BL in the United States. Keywords: epidemiology, pediatric cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, HIV/AIDS

Explaining psychological distress in the legal profession: the role of overcommitment

The purpose of this study was to explain previously reported high levels of psychological distress in lawyers. General demands (i.e., time pressure and emotional demands) and lawyer demands (i.e., emphasis on profits and competitiveness), as well as three resources (i.e., control, pay, and praise) were examined, along with the moderating role of overcommitment. Participants included 448 Australian lawyers who completed an online questionnaire distributed to them by their state or territory law society. Results revealed significant direct relationships between the demands, resources, and overcommitment on depression and anxiety. Significant two-way interactions indicated that the positive relationship of general demands on depression and anxiety were more marked for high overcommitted lawyers, as was the negative relationship of pay on anxiety. Contrary to predictions for the three-way interaction, in the presence of high general demands, there was a trend to suggest that high control was positively related to psychological distress for high overcommitted lawyers. The theoretical and practical implications of these results, including the importance of identifying overcommitted lawyers and developing preventive interventions to reduce overcommitment prior to the development of strain, are discussed.

Translating training in the NYU Caregiver Intervention in Australia: Maintaining fidelity and meeting graduate standards in an online continuing professional education setting

The aim of this study was to develop an Internet-based self-directed training program for Australian healthcare workers to facilitate learning and competence in delivery of a proven intervention for caregivers of people with dementia: The New York University Caregiver Intervention (NYUCI). The NYUCI is a nonpharmacological, multicomponent intervention for spousal caregivers. It is aimed at maintaining well-being by increasing social support and decreasing family discord, thereby delaying or avoiding nursing home placement of the person with dementia. Training in the NYUCI in the United States has, until now, been conducted in person to trainee practitioners. The Internet-based intervention was developed simultaneously for trainees in the U.S. and Australia. In Australia, due to population geography, community healthcare workers, who provide support to older adult caregivers of people with dementia, live and work in many regional and rural areas. Therefore, it was especially important to have online training available to make it possible to realize the health and economic benefits of using an existing evidence-based intervention. This study aimed to transfer knowledge of training in, and delivery of, the NYUCI for an Australian context and consumers. This article details the considerations given to contextual differences and to learners’ skillset differences in translating the NYUCI for Australia.

Did bankruptcy reform lead to looser mortgage lending standard? : evidence from the U. S. mortgage market 2000-2007

Resumen: El presente trabajo intenta encontrar una causa exógena al deterioro, a partir de 2005, en los estándares de crédito hipotecario que contribuyeron a la crisis subprime en los Estados Unidos. Sostenemos que la nueva provisión de la prueba de medios de la ley Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act (BAPCPA) de 2005 fue dicho shock exógeno en el mercado hipotecario. Mostramos que la prueba de medios, que impide solicitar la bancarrota bajo Chapter 7 a los deudores con mayores ingresos relativos, causó un desplazamiento de la oferta de crédito hipotecario de deudores con mayores ingresos a deudores con menores ingresos relativos. Simultáneamente, observamos que todos los deudores debieron pagar tasas de interés más altas, independientemente del nivel de ingresos. Nuestros resultados implican que la ley BAPCPA podría ser un factor que contribuyó al deterioro en los estándares de crédito en el mercado hipotecario de los Estados Unidos.

Ecosystem science capabilities required to support NOAA’s mission in the year 2020

The mission of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our nation’s economic, social and environmental needs (NOAA, 2004). In meeting its marine stewardship responsibilities, NOAA seeks to ensure the sustainable use of resources and balance competing uses of coastal and marine ecosystems, recognizing both their human and natural components (NOAA, 2004). Authorities for executing these responsibilities come from over 90 separate pieces of Federal legislation, each with unique requirements and responsibilities. Few of these laws explicitly mandate an ecosystem approach to management (EAM) or supporting science. However, resource managers, the science community, and increasingly, the public, are recognizing that significantly greater connectedness among the scientific disciplines is needed to support management and stewardship responsibilities (Browman and Stergiou, 2004; 2005). Neither NOAA nor any other science agency can meet the increasing demand for ecosystem science products addressing each of its mandates individually. Even if it was possible, doing so would not provide the integration necessary to solve the increasingly complex array of management issues. This focus on the integration of science and management responsibilities into an ecosystem view is one of the centerpieces of the U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy’s report (USCOP, 2004), and the Administration’s response to that report in the U.S. Ocean Action Plan (CEQ, 2004). (PDF contains 100 pages)

The economic importance of marine angler expenditures in the United States.

In 1998, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) began a series of marine angler expenditure surveys in the coastal regions of the United States (U.S.) to evaluate marine recreational fishing expenditures and the financial impacts of these expenditures in each region and the U.S. as a whole. In this report, we use the previously estimated expenditure estimates to assess the total financial impact of anglers’ saltwater expenditures. Estimates are provided for sales, income, employment, and tax impacts for each coastal state in the U.S. Aggregate estimates are also provided for the entire U.S., excluding Alaska, Hawaii, and Texas. Direct, indirect, and induced effects associated with resident and non-resident angler expenditures were estimated using a regional input-output modeling system called IMPLAN Pro. Nationwide, recreational saltwater fishing generated over $30.5 billion in sales in 2000, nearly $12.0 billion in income, and supported nearly 350,000 jobs. Approximately 89 cents of every dollar spent by saltwater anglers was estimated to remain within the U.S. economy. At the state level, many of the goods anglers purchased were imports, and, as such, as little as 44 cents of every dollar stayed in Rhode Island and as much as 80 cents of every dollar stayed in Georgia. In the Northeast, the highest impacts were generated in New Jersey, even though recreational fishing expenditures in Massachusetts and Maryland were considerably higher. In the Southeast, the highest impacts were generated in Florida, and on the Pacific Coast, the highest impacts were generated in California. Expenditures on boat maintenance/expenses generated more impacts than any other expenditure category in the U.S. Expenditures on rods and reels was the single most important expense category in terms of generating impacts in most of the Northeast states. Expenditures on boat expenses generated the highest in most Southeast states, and expenditures for boat accessories produced the highest impacts in most Pacific Coast states.(PDF file contains 184 pages.)

Population structure, long-term connectivity, and effective size of mutton snapper (Lutjanus analis) in the Caribbean Sea and Florida Keys

Genetic structure and average long-term connectivity and effective size of mutton snapper (Lutjanus analis) sampled from offshore localities in the U.S. Caribbean and the Florida Keys were assessed by using nuclear-encoded microsatellites and a fragment of mitochondrial DNA. No significant differences in allele, genotype (microsatellites), or haplotype (mtDNA) distributions were detected; tests of selective neutrality (mtDNA) were nonsignificant after Bonferroni correction. Heuristic estimates of average long-term rate of migration (proportion of migrant individuals/generation) between geographically adjacent localities varied from 0.0033 to 0.0054, indicating that local subpopulations could respond independently of environmental perturbations. Estimates of average longterm effective population sizes varied from 341 to 1066 and differed significantly among several of the localities. These results indicate that over time larval drift and interregional adult movement may not be sufficient to maintain population sustainability across the region and that there may be different demographic stocks at some of the localities studied. The estimate of long-term effective population size at the locality offshore of St. Croix was below the minimum threshold size considered necessary to maintain the equilibrium between the loss of adaptive genetic variance from genetic drift and its replacement by mutation. Genetic variability in mutton snapper likely is maintained at the intraregional level by aggregate spawning and random mating of local populations. This feature is perhaps ironic in that aggregate spawning also renders mutton snapper especially vulnerable to overexploitation.

Activity in the pallial nerve of knobbed (Busycon carica) and channeled (Busycotypus canaliculatum) whelks recorded during exposure of the osphradium to odorant solutions

Adult horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus) are the preferred bait in the U.S. east coast whelk pot fishery, but their harvest is being restricted because of severe population declines in the Chesapeake and Delaware bays. To identify other baits, the activity in the pallial nerve of whelks was determined during exposure of the osphradium to odorant solutions prepared from horseshoe crab eggs, horseshoe crab hemolymph, and hard clam (Mercenaria mercenaria) tissue. All three elicited significant responses; bait based on them may provide an alternative to the use of adult horseshoe crabs, although extensive behavioral testing remains to be done. Channeled whelk did not respond to molecular weight fractions (>3 kDa and <3 kDa) prepared from horseshoe crab egg odorant solutions but did respond when the molecular weight fractions were recombined. Whelks appear to have broadly tuned chemoreceptors and manufactured baits may need to mimic the complex mixture of odorants derived from natural sources.

Evaluating methods for estimating rare events with zero-heavy data: a simulation model estimating sea turtle bycatch in the pelagic longline fishery

Estimating rare events from zero-heavy data (data with many zero values) is a common challenge in fisheries science and ecology. For example, loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) account for less than 1% of total catch in the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. Nevertheless, the Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) is charged with assessing the effect of this fishery on these federally protected species. Annual estimates of loggerhead and leatherback bycatch in a fishery can affect fishery management and species conservation decisions. However, current estimates have wide confidence intervals, and their accuracy is unknown. We evaluate 3 estimation methods, each at 2 spatiotemporal scales, in simulations of 5 spatial scenarios representing incidental capture of sea turtles by the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. The delta-log normal method of estimating bycatch for calendar quarter and fishing area strata was the least biased estimation method in the spatial scenarios believed to be most realistic. This result supports the current estimation procedure used by the SEFSC.

Descriptions of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Reef Fish Bottom Longline and Vertical Line Fisheries Based on Observer Data

In July 2006, a mandatory observer program was implemented to characterize the commercial reef fish fishery operating in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. The primary gear types assessed included bottom longline and vertical line (bandit and handline). A total of 73,205 fish (183 taxa) were observed in the longline fishery. Most (66%) were red grouper, Epinephelus morio, and yellowedge grouper, E. flavolimbatus. In the vertical line fishery, 89,015 fish (178 taxa) were observed of which most (60%) were red snapper, Lutjanus campechanus, and vermilion snapper, Rhomboplites aurorubens. Based on surface observations of discarded under-sized target and unwanted species, the majority of fish were released alive; minimum assumed mortality was 23% for the vertical line and 24% for the bottom longline fishery. Of the individuals released alive in the longline fishery, 42% had visual signs of barotrauma stress (air bladder expansion/and or eyes protruding). In the vertical line fishery, 35% of the fish were released in a stressed state. Red grouper and red snapper size composition by depth and gear type were determined. Catch-per-unit-effort for dominant species in both fisheries, illustrated spatial differences in distribution between the eastern and western Gulf. Hot Spot Analyses for red grouper and red snapper identified areas with significant clustering of high or low CPUE values.

The U.S. Gulf of Mexico Party Boat Industry: Activity Centers, Species Targeted, and Fisheries Management Opinions

In addition to providing an overview of the party boat fishery in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, a management-oriented methodology is presented that can be used elsewhere to assess regulatory impacts. Party boat operators were interviewed to determine species targeted, percent time committed to targeting each species, and opinions on current catch restrictions. Over two-thirds of the fieet was located on the west coast of Florida. Overall, most boats targeted <5 species. Four species accounted for 90 percent of the estimated effort by party boats in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico: Snapper; Lutjanus sp.; grouper, Epinephelus sp. and Mycteroperca sp.; amberjack, Seriola dumerili; and king mackerel, Scomberomorus cavalla. Party boat effort in Texas was devoted primarily to snapper, whereas in Florida most effort was devoted to snapper and grouper collectively. Party boat operators were diverse in their opinions of management regulations in force when interviewed. Results revealed why major opposition would he expected from Texas party boat operators for red snapper bag limits and other restrictions proposed by the Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management Council.