Prediction of free-stall occupancy rate in dairycattle barns through fuzzy sets

The goal of this study was to develop a fuzzy model to predict the occupancy rate of free-stalls facilities of dairy cattle, aiding to optimize the design of projects. The following input variables were defined for the development of the fuzzy system: dry bulb temperature (Tdb, °C), wet bulb temperature (Twb, °C) and black globe temperature (Tbg, °C). Based on the input variables, the fuzzy system predicts the occupancy rate (OR, %) of dairy cattle in free-stall barns. For the model validation, data collecting were conducted on the facilities of the Intensive System of Milk Production (SIPL), in the Dairy Cattle National Research Center (CNPGL) of Embrapa. The OR values, estimated by the fuzzy system, presented values of average standard deviation of 3.93%, indicating low rate of errors in the simulation. Simulated and measured results were statistically equal (P>0.05, t Test). After validating the proposed model, the average percentage of correct answers for the simulated data was 89.7%. Therefore, the fuzzy system developed for the occupancy rate prediction of free-stalls facilities for dairy cattle allowed a realistic prediction of stalls occupancy rate, allowing the planning and design of free-stall barns.

Magnetic susceptibility in the prediction of soil attributes in two sugarcane harvesting management systems

This study aimed to investigate the potential use of magnetic susceptibility (MS) as pedotransfer function to predict soil attributes under two sugarcane harvesting management systems. For each area of 1 ha (one with green sugarcane mechanized harvesting and other one with burnt sugarcane manual harvesting), 126 soil samples were collected and subjected to laboratory analysis to determine soil physical, chemical and mineralogical attributes and for measuring of MS. Data were submitted to descriptive statistics by calculating the mean and coefficient of variation. In order to compare the means in the different harvesting management systems it was carried out the Tukey test at a significance level of 5%. In order to investigate the correlation of the MS with other soil properties it was made the correlation test and aiming to assess how the MS contributes to the prediction of soil complex attributes it was made the multiple linear regressions. The results demonstrate that MS showed, in both sugarcane harvesting management systems, statistical correlation with chemical, physical and mineralogical soil attributes and it also showed potential to be used as pedotransfer function to predict attributes of the studied oxisol.

Bankruptcy prediction using fuzzy methods

In this thesis, a classi cation problem in predicting credit worthiness of a customer is tackled. This is done by proposing a reliable classi cation procedure on a given data set. The aim of this thesis is to design a model that gives the best classi cation accuracy to e ectively predict bankruptcy. FRPCA techniques proposed by Yang and Wang have been preferred since they are tolerant to certain type of noise in the data. These include FRPCA1, FRPCA2 and FRPCA3 from which the best method is chosen. Two di erent approaches are used at the classi cation stage: Similarity classi er and FKNN classi er. Algorithms are tested with Australian credit card screening data set. Results obtained indicate a mean classi cation accuracy of 83.22% using FRPCA1 with similarity classi- er. The FKNN approach yields a mean classi cation accuracy of 85.93% when used with FRPCA2, making it a better method for the suitable choices of the number of nearest neighbors and fuzziness parameters. Details on the calibration of the fuzziness parameter and other parameters associated with the similarity classi er are discussed.

Uterine Doppler velocimetry of the uterine arteries in the second and third trimesters for the prediction of gestational outcome

PURPOSE: The aim of this longitudinal study was to investigate the value of uterine artery Doppler sonography during the second and third trimesters in the prediction of adverse pregnancy outcome in low-risk women. METHODS: From July 2011 to August 2012, a total of 205 singleton pregnant women presenting at our antenatal clinic were enrolled in this prospective study and were assessed for baseline demographic and obstetric data. They underwent ultrasound evaluation at the time of second and third trimesters, both included Doppler assessment of bilateral uterine arteries to determine the values of the pulsatility index (PI) and resistance index (RI) and presence of early diastolic notch. The endpoint of this study was assessing the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of Doppler ultrasonography of the uterine artery, for the prediction of adverse pregnancy outcomes including preeclampsia, stillbirth, placental abruption and preterm labor. RESULTS: The mean age of cases was 26.4±5.11. The uterine artery PI and RI values for both second (PI: 1.1±0.42 versus 1.53±0.59, p=0.002; RI: 0.55±0.09 versus 0.72±0.13, p=0.000 respectively) and third-trimester (PI: 0.77±0.31 versus 1.09±0.46, p=0.000; RI: 0.46±0.10 versus 0.60±0.14, p=0.010 respectively) evaluations were significantly higher in patients with adverse pregnancy outcome than in normal women. Combination of PI and RI >95th percentile and presence of bilateral notch in second trimester get sensitivity and specificity of 36.1 and 97% respectively, while these measures were 57.5 and 98.2% in third trimester. CONCLUSIONS: According to our study, it seems that uterine artery Doppler may be a valuable tool for the prediction of a variety of adverse outcomes in second and third trimesters.

Criteria for prediction of metastatic axillary lymph nodes in early-stage breast cancer

PURPOSE: To estimate the likelihood of axillary lymph node involvement for patients with early-stage breast cancer, based on a variety of clinical and pathological factors. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was done in hospital databases from 1999 to 2007. Two hundred thirty-nine patients were diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer. Predictive factors, such as patient age, tumor size, lymphovascular invasion, histological grade and immunohistochemical subtype were analyzed to identify variables that may be associated with axillary lymph node metastasis. RESULTS: Patients with tumors that are negative for estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and HER2 had approximately a 90% lower chance of developing lymph node metastasis than those with luminal A tumors (e.g., ER+ and/or PR+ and HER2-) - Odds Ratio: 0.11; 95% confidence interval: 0.01-0.88; p=0.01. Furthermore, the risk for lymph node metastasis of luminal A tumors seemed to decrease as patient age increased, and it was directly correlated with tumor size. CONCLUSION: The molecular classification of early-stage breast cancer using immunohistochemistry may help predicting the probability of developing axillary lymph node metastasis. Further studies are needed to optimize predictions for nodal involvement, with the aim of aiding the decision-making process for breast cancer treatment.

Prediction of 3D structure and ligand-binding properties : ABC transporters and flavodiiron proteins from Synechocystis sp. strain PCC 6803

Cyanobacteria are unicellular, non-nitrogen-fixing prokaryotes, which perform photosynthesis similarly as higher plants. The cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. strain PCC 6803 is used as a model organism in photosynthesis research. My research described herein aims at understanding the function of the photosynthetic machinery and how it responds to changes in the environment. Detailed knowledge of the regulation of photosynthesis in cyanobacteria can be utilized for biotechnological purposes, for example in the harnessing of solar energy for biofuel production. In photosynthesis, iron participates in electron transfer. Here, we focused on iron transport in Synechocystis sp. strain PCC 6803 and particularly on the environmental regulation of the genes encoding the FutA2BC ferric iron transporter, which belongs to the ABC transporter family. A homology model built for the ATP-binding subunit FutC indicates that it has a functional ATPbinding site as well as conserved interactions with the channel-forming subunit FutB in the transporter complex. Polyamines are important for the cell proliferation, differentiation and apoptosis in prokaryotic and eukaryotic cells. In plants, polyamines have special roles in stress response and in plant survival. The polyamine metabolism in cyanobacteria in response to environmental stress is of interest in research on stress tolerance of higher plants. In this thesis, the potd gene encoding an polyamine transporter subunit from Synechocystis sp. strain PCC 6803 was characterized for the first time. A homology model built for PotD protein indicated that it has capability of binding polyamines, with the preference for spermidine. Furthermore, in order to investigate the structural features of the substrate specificity, polyamines were docked into the binding site. Spermidine was positioned very similarly in Synechocystis PotD as in the template structure and had most favorable interactions of the docked polyamines. Based on the homology model, experimental work was conducted, which confirmed the binding preference. Flavodiiron proteins (Flv) are enzymes, which protect the cell against toxicity of oxygen and/or nitric oxide by reduction. In this thesis, we present a novel type of photoprotection mechanism in cyanobacteria by the heterodimer of Flv2/Flv4. The constructed homology model of Flv2/Flv4 suggests a functional heterodimer capable of rapid electron transfer. The unknown protein sll0218, encoded by the flv2-flv4 operon, is assumed to facilitate the interaction of the Flv2/Flv4 heterodimer and energy transfer between the phycobilisome and PSII. Flv2/Flv4 provides an alternative electron transfer pathway and functions as an electron sink in PSII electron transfer.

Prediction of transients and control reactions in a transonic wind tunnel

This work describes a lumped parameter mathematical model for the prediction of transients in an aerodynamic circuit of a transonic wind tunnel. Control actions to properly handle those perturbations are also assessed. The tunnel circuit technology is up to date and incorporates a novel feature: high-enthalpy air injection to extend the tunnel’s Reynolds number capability. The model solves the equations of continuity, energy and momentum and defines density, internal energy and mass flow as the basic parameters in the aerodynamic study as well as Mach number, stagnation pressure and stagnation temperature, all referred to test section conditions, as the main control variables. The tunnel circuit response to control actions and the stability of the flow are numerically investigated. Initially, for validation purposes, the code was applied to the AWT ("Altitude Wind Tunnel" of NASA-Lewis). In the sequel, the Brazilian transonic wind tunnel was investigated, with all the main control systems modeled, including injection.

Linear prediction in optical spectroscopy

A linear prediction procedure is one of the approved numerical methods of signal processing. In the field of optical spectroscopy it is used mainly for extrapolation known parts of an optical signal in order to obtain a longer one or deduce missing signal samples. The first is needed particularly when narrowing spectral lines for the purpose of spectral information extraction. In the present paper the coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS) spectra were under investigation. The spectra were significantly distorted by the presence of nonlinear nonresonant background. In addition, line shapes were far from Gaussian/Lorentz profiles. To overcome these disadvantages the maximum entropy method (MEM) for phase spectrum retrieval was used. The obtained broad MEM spectra were further underwent the linear prediction analysis in order to be narrowed.

Prediction of market switching and delisting events from OMX First North Nordic multilateral stock exchange

This thesis studies the predictability of market switching and delisting events from OMX First North Nordic multilateral stock exchange by using financial statement information and market information from 2007 to 2012. This study was conducted by using a three stage process. In first stage relevant theoretical framework and initial variable pool were constructed. Then, explanatory analysis of the initial variable pool was done in order to further limit and identify relevant variables. The explanatory analysis was conducted by using self-organizing map methodology. In the third stage, the predictive modeling was carried out with random forests and support vector machine methodologies. It was found that the explanatory analysis was able to identify relevant variables. The results indicate that the market switching and delisting events can be predicted in some extent. The empirical results also support the usability of financial statement and market information in the prediction of market switching and delisting events.

Warranty Prediction Using Weibull Simulation

The main objective of this master’s thesis is to examine if Weibull analysis is suitable method for warranty forecasting in the Case Company. The Case Company has used Reliasoft’s Weibull++ software, which is basing on the Weibull method, but the Company has noticed that the analysis has not given right results. This study was conducted making Weibull simulations in different profit centers of the Case Company and then comparing actual cost and forecasted cost. Simula-tions were made using different time frames and two methods for determining future deliveries. The first sub objective is to examine, which parameters of simulations will give the best result to each profit center. The second sub objective of this study is to create a simple control model for following forecasted costs and actual realized costs. The third sub objective is to document all Qlikview-parameters of profit centers. This study is a constructive research, and solutions for company’s problems are figured out in this master’s thesis. In the theory parts were introduced quality issues, for example; what is quality, quality costing and cost of poor quality. Quality is one of the major aspects in the Case Company, so understand-ing the link between quality and warranty forecasting is important. Warranty management was also introduced and other different tools for warranty forecasting. The Weibull method and its mathematical properties and reliability engineering were introduced. The main results of this master’s thesis are that the Weibull analysis forecasted too high costs, when calculating provision. Although, some forecasted values of profit centers were lower than actual values, the method works better for planning purposes. One of the reasons is that quality improving or alternatively quality decreasing is not showing in the results of the analysis in the short run. The other reason for too high values is that the products of the Case Company are com-plex and analyses were made in the profit center-level. The Weibull method was developed for standard products, but products of the Case Company consists of many complex components. According to the theory, this method was developed for homogeneous-data. So the most im-portant notification is that the analysis should be made in the product level, not the profit center level, when the data is more homogeneous.

Ultrasonic and Electrokinetic Remediation of Low Permeability Soil Contaminated with Persistent Organic Pollutants

Electrokinetics has emerged as a potential technique for in situ soil remediation and especially unique because of the ability to work in low permeability soil. In electrokinetic remediation, non-polar contaminants like most organic compounds are transported primarily by electroosmosis, thus the process is effective only if the contaminants are soluble in pore fluid. Therefore, enhancement is needed to improve mobility of these hydrophobic compounds, which tend to adsorb strongly to the soil. On the other hand, as a novel and rapidly growing science, the applications of ultrasound in environmental technology hold a promising future. Compared to conventional methods, ultrasonication can bring several benefits such as environmental friendliness (no toxic chemical are used or produced), low cost, and compact instrumentation. It also can be applied onsite. Ultrasonic energy applied into contaminated soils can increase desorption and mobilization of contaminants and porosity and permeability of soil through developing of cavitation. The research investigated the coupling effect of the combination of these two techniques, electrokinetics and ultrasonication, in persistent organic pollutant removal from contaminated low permeability clayey soil (with kaolin as a model medium). The preliminary study checked feasibility of ultrasonic treatment of kaolin highly contaminated by persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The laboratory experiments were conducted in various conditions (moisture, frequency, power, duration time, initial concentration) to examine the effects of these parameters on the treatment process. Experimental results showed that ultrasonication has a potential to remove POPs, although the removal efficiencies were not high with short duration time. The study also suggested intermittent ultrasonication over longer time as an effective means to increase the removal efficiencies. Then, experiments were conducted to compare the performances among electrokinetic process alone and electrokinetic processes combined with surfactant addition and mainly with ultrasonication, in designed cylinders (with filtercloth separating central part and electrolyte parts) and in open pans. Combined electrokinetic and ultrasonic treatment did prove positive coupling effect compared to each single process alone, though the level of enhancement is not very significant. The assistance of ultrasound in electrokinetic remediation can help reduce POPs from clayey soil by improving the mobility of hydrophobic organic compounds and degrading these contaminants through pyrolysis and oxidation. Ultrasonication also sustains higher current and increases electroosmotic flow. Initial contaminant concentration is an essential input parameter that can affect the removal effectiveness.

Fast and slow voltage modulation of apical Cl- permeability in toad skin at high [K+]

The influence of voltage on the conductance of toad skin was studied to identify the time course of the activation/deactivation dynamics of voltage-dependent Cl- channels located in the apical membrane of mitochondrion-rich cells in this tissue. Positive apical voltage induced an important conductance inhibition which took a few seconds to fully develop and was instantaneously released by pulse inversion to negative voltage, indicating a short-duration memory of the inhibiting factors. Sinusoidal stimulation at 23.4 mM [Cl-] showed hysteresis in the current versus voltage curves, even at very low frequency, suggesting that the rate of voltage application was also relevant for the inhibition/releasing effect to develop. We conclude that the voltage modulation of apical Cl- permeability is essentially a fast process and the apparent slow components of activation/deactivation obtained in the whole skin are a consequence of a gradual voltage build-up across the apical membrane due to voltage sharing between apical and basolateral membranes

Inhibitory effect of high [Mg2+] on the vasopressin-stimulated hydroosmotic permeability of the isolated perfused cortical collecting duct

High magnesium concentration inhibits the effect of arginine vasopressin (AVP) on smooth muscle contraction and platelet aggregation and also influences hepatocyte AVP receptor binding. The aim of this study was to determine the role of magnesium concentration [Mg2+] in AVP-stimulated water transport in the kidney collecting duct. The effect of low and high peritubular [Mg2+] on the AVP-stimulated osmotic water permeability coefficient (Pf) was evaluated in the isolated perfused rabbit cortical collecting duct (CCD). Control tubules bathed and perfused with standard Ringer bicarbonate solution containing 1 mM Mg2+ presented a Pf of 223.9 ± 27.2 µm/s. When Mg2+ was not added to the bathing solution, an increase in the AVP-stimulated Pf to 363.1 ± 57.2 µm/s (P<0.05) was observed. An elevation of Mg2+ to 5 mM resulted in a decrease in Pf to 202.9 ± 12.6 µm/s (P<0.05). This decrease in the AVP-stimulated Pf at 5 mM Mg2+ persisted when the CCDs were returned to 1 mM Mg2+, Pf = 130.2 ± 20.3 µm/s, and was not normalized by the addition of 8-[4-chlorophenylthio]-adenosine 3',5'-cyclic monophosphate, a cAMP analogue, to the preparation. These data indicate that magnesium may play a modulatory role in the action of AVP on CCD osmotic water permeability, as observed in other tissues.

Measurement of intestinal permeability using mannitol and lactulose in children with diarrheal diseases

The excretion ratio of lactulose/mannitol in urine has been used to assess the extension of malabsorption and impairment of intestinal permeability. The recovery of lactulose and mannitol in urine was employed to evaluate intestinal permeability in children with and without diarrhea. Lactulose and mannitol probes were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography with pulsed amperometric detection (HPLC-PAD). Two groups of solutions containing 60 µM sugars were prepared. Group I consisted of glucosamine, mannitol, melibiose and lactulose, and group II of inositol, sorbitol, glucose and lactose. In the study of intra-experiment variation, a sample of 50 µl from each group was submitted to 4 successive determinations. The recovered amounts and retention times of each sugar showed a variation <2 and 1%, respectively. The estimated recovery was >97%. In the study of inter-experiment variation, we prepared 4 independent samples from groups I and II at the following concentrations: 1.0, 0.3, 0.1, 0.03 and 0.01 mM. The amounts of the sugars recovered varied by <10%, whereas the retention times showed an average variation <1%. The linear correlation coefficients were >99%. Retention (k'), selectivity (a) and efficiency (N) were used to assess the chromatographic conditions. All three parameters were in the normal range. Children with diarrhea presented a greater lactulose/mannitol ratio compared to children without diarrhea.

The molecular basis of selective permeability of connexins is complex and includes both size and charge

Although gap junction channels are still widely viewed as large, non-specific pores connecting cells, the diversity in the connexin family has led more attention to be focused on their permeability characteristics. We summarize here the current status of these investigations, both published and on-going, that reveal both charge and size selectivity between gap junction channels composed of different connexins. In particular, this review will focus on quantitative approaches that monitor the expression level of the connexins, so that it is clear that differences that are seen can be attributed to channel properties. The degree of selectivity that is observed is modest compared to other channels, but is likely to be significant for biological molecules that are labile within the cell. Of particular relevance to the in vivo function of gap junctions, recent studies are summarized that demonstrate that the connexin phenotype can control the nature of the endogenous traffic between cells, with consequent effects on biological effects of gap junctions such as tumor suppression.