In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

Left on the side of the road? A review of deterrence-based theoretical developments in road safety

Deterrence-based initiatives form a cornerstone of many road safety countermeasures. This approach is informed by Classical Deterrence Theory, which proposes that individuals will be deterred from committing offences if they fear the perceived consequences of the act, especially the perceived certainty, severity and swiftness of sanctions. While deterrence-based countermeasures have proven effective in reducing a range of illegal driving behaviours known to cause crashes such as speeding and drink driving, the exact level of exposure, and how the process works, remains unknown. As a result the current study involved a systematic review of the literature to identify theoretical advancements within deterrence theory that has informed evidence-based practice. Studies that reported on perceptual deterrence between 1950 and June 2015 were searched in electronic databases including PsychINFO and ScienceDirect, both within road safety and non-road safety fields. This review indicated that scientific efforts to understand deterrence processes for road safety were most intense during the 1970s and 1980s. This era produced competing theories that postulated both legal and non-legal factors can influence offending behaviours. Since this time, little theoretical progression has been made in the road safety arena, apart from Stafford and Warr's (1993) reconceptualisation of deterrence that illuminated the important issue of punishment avoidance. In contrast, the broader field of criminology has continued to advance theoretical knowledge by investigating a range of individual difference-based factors proposed to influence deterrent processes, including: moral inhibition, social bonding, self-control, tendencies to discount the future, etc. However, this scientific knowledge has not been directed towards identifying how to best utilise deterrence mechanisms to improve road safety. This paper will highlight the implications of this lack of progression and provide direction for future research.

Access to essential medicines: Public health and international law

Historically, there have been intense conflicts over the ownership and exploitation of pharmaceutical drugs and diagnostic tests dealing with infectious diseases. Throughout the 1980’s, there was much scientific, legal, and ethical debate about which scientific group should be credited with the discovery of the human immunodeficiency virus, and the invention of the blood test devised to detect antibodies to the virus. In May 1983, Luc Montagnier, Françoise Barré-Sinoussi, and other French scientists from the Pasteur Institute in Paris, published a paper in Science, detailing the discovery of a virus called lymphadenopathy (LAV). A scientific rival, Robert Gallo of the National Cancer Institute, identified the AIDS virus and published his findings in the May 1984 issue of Science. In May 1985, the United States Patent and Trademark Office awarded the American patent for the AIDS blood test to Gallo and the Department of Health and Human Services. In December 1985, the Institut Pasteur sued the Department of Health and Human Services, contending that the French were the first to identify the AIDS virus and to invent the antibody test, and that the American test was dependent upon the French research. In March 1987, an agreement was brokered by President Ronald Reagan and French Prime Minister Jacques Chirac, which resulted in the Department of Health and Human Services and the Institut Pasteur sharing the patent rights to the blood test for AIDS. In 1992, the Federal Office of Research Integrity found that Gallo had committed scientific misconduct, by falsely reporting facts in his 1984 scientific paper. A subsequent investigation by the National Institutes of Health, the United States Congress, and the US attorney-general cleared Gallo of any wrongdoing. In 1994, the United States government and French government renegotiated their agreement regarding the AIDS blood test patent, in order to make the distribution of royalties more equitable... The dispute between Luc Montagnier and Robert Gallo was not an isolated case of scientific rivalry and patent races. It foreshadowed further patent conflicts over research in respect of HIV/AIDS. Michael Kirby, former Justice of the High Court of Australia diagnosed a clash between two distinct schools of philosophy - ‘scientists of the old school... working by serendipity with free sharing of knowledge and research’, and ‘those of the new school who saw the hope of progress as lying in huge investments in scientific experimentation.’ Indeed, the patent race between Robert Gallo and Luc Montagnier has been a precursor to broader trade disputes over access to essential medicines in the 1990s and 2000s. The dispute between Robert Gallo and Luc Montagnier captures in microcosm a number of themes of this book: the fierce competition for intellectual property rights; the clash between sovereign states over access to medicines; the pressing need to defend human rights, particularly the right to health; and the need for new incentives for research and development to combat infectious diseases as both an international and domestic issue.

Translating road safety research on night-time visibility to the context of mining

In recent years a significant amount of research has been undertaken in collision avoidance and personnel location technology in order to reduce the number of incidents involving pedestrians and mobile plant equipment which are a high risk in underground coal mines. Improving the visibility of pedestrians to drivers would potentially reduce the likelihood of these incidents. In the road safety context, a variety of approaches have been used to make pedestrians more conspicuous to drivers at night (including vehicle and roadway lighting technologies and night vision enhancement systems). However, emerging research from our group and others has demonstrated that clothing incorporating retroreflective markers on the movable joints as well as the torso can provide highly significant improvements in pedestrian visibility in reduced illumination. Importantly, retroreflective markers are most effective when positioned on the moveable joints creating a sensation of “biological motion”. Based only on the motion of points on the moveable joints of an otherwise invisible body, observers can quickly recognize a walking human form, and even correctly judge characteristics such as gender and weight. An important and as yet unexplored question is whether the benefits of these retroreflective clothing configurations translate to the context of mining where workers are operating under low light conditions. Given that the benefits of biomotion clothing are effective for both young and older drivers, as well as those with various eye conditions common in those >50 years reinforces their potential application in the mining industry which employs many workers in this age bracket. This paper will summarise the visibility benefits of retroreflective markers in a biomotion configuration for the mining industry, highlighting that this form of clothing has the potential to be an affordable and convenient way to provide a sizeable safety benefit. It does not involve modifications to vehicles, drivers, or infrastructure. Instead, adding biomotion markings to standard retroreflective vests can enhance the night-time conspicuity of mining workers by capitalising on perceptual capabilities that have already been well documented.

A method for estimating intrinsic noise in electroretinographic (ERG) signals

Purpose To develop a signal processing paradigm for extracting ERG responses to temporal sinusoidal modulation with contrasts ranging from below perceptual threshold to suprathreshold contrasts. To estimate the magnitude of intrinsic noise in ERG signals at different stimulus contrasts. Methods Photopic test stimuli were generated using a 4-primary Maxwellian view optical system. The 4-primary lights were sinusoidally temporally modulated in-phase (36 Hz; 2.5 - 50% Michelson). The stimuli were presented in 1 s epochs separated by a 1 ms blank interval and repeated 160 times (160.16 s duration) during the recording of the continuous flicker ERG from the right eye using DTL fiber electrodes. After artefact rejection, the ERG signal was extracted using Fourier methods in each of the 1 s epochs where a stimulus was presented. The signal processing allows for computation of the intrinsic noise distribution in addition to the signal to noise (SNR) ratio. Results We provide the initial report that the ERG intrinsic noise distribution is independent of stimulus contrast whereas SNR decreases linearly with decreasing contrast until the noise limit at ~2.5%. The 1ms blank intervals between epochs de-correlated the ERG signal at the line frequency (50 Hz) and thus increased the SNR of the averaged response. We confirm that response amplitude increases linearly with stimulus contrast. The phase response shows a shallow positive relationship with stimulus contrast. Conclusions This new technique will enable recording of intrinsic noise in ERG signals above and below perceptual visual threshold and is suitable for measurement of continuous rod and cone ERGs across a range of temporal frequencies, and post-receptoral processing in the primary retinogeniculate pathways at low stimulus contrasts. The intrinsic noise distribution may have application as a biomarker for detecting changes in disease progression or treatment efficacy.

Measuring, understanding and reducing psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) in young people

Using large community samples, an existing screening instrument for unusual beliefs and perceptual experiences was refined, and a current version of the lifetime measure was developed and tested. Importantly, high scores on the instruments were associated with psychological distress and suicide risk. Acceptability testing of a web treatment was also undertaken. Routine use of the screening instrument and web program in health services may improve identification and support of young people at risk of distress and serious psychological disorder.

Channel selection in the short-time modulation domain for distant speech recognition

Automatic speech recognition from multiple distant micro- phones poses significant challenges because of noise and reverberations. The quality of speech acquisition may vary between microphones because of movements of speakers and channel distortions. This paper proposes a channel selection approach for selecting reliable channels based on selection criterion operating in the short-term modulation spectrum domain. The proposed approach quantifies the relative strength of speech from each microphone and speech obtained from beamforming modulations. The new technique is compared experimentally in the real reverb conditions in terms of perceptual evaluation of speech quality (PESQ) measures and word error rate (WER). Overall improvement in recognition rate is observed using delay-sum and superdirective beamformers compared to the case when the channel is selected randomly using circular microphone arrays.

Final report of Working Group 2: Traffic psychology [A COST Action TU1101 / HOPE collaboration]

BACKGROUND The workgroup of Traffic Psychology is concerned with the social, behavioral, and perceptual aspects that are associated with use and non-use of bicycle helmets, in their various forms and under various cycling conditions. OBJECTIVES The objectives of WG2 are to (1) share current knowledge among the people already working in the field, (2) suggest new ideas for research on and evaluation of the design of bicycle helmets, and (3) discuss options for funding of such research within the individual frameworks of the participants. Areas for research include 3.1. The patterns of use of helmets among different users: children, adults, and sports enthusiasts. 3.2. The use of helmets in different environments: rural roads, urban streets, and bike trails. 3.3. Concerns bicyclists have relative to their safety and convenience and the perceived impact of using helmets on comfort and convenience. 3.4. The benefit of helmets for enhancing visibility, and how variations in helmet design and colors affect daytime, nighttime, and dusktime visibility. 3.5. The role of helmets in the acceptance of city-wide pickup-and-drop-off bicycles. 3.6. The impact of helmets on visual search behaviour of bicyclists.

Use of objective psychomotor tests in health professionals

Evaluation of psychomotor skills is undertaken in a number of broad contexts. This includes testing of health professional populations as a measure of innate ability, to evaluate skill acquisition, or to compare professions. However, the use of psychomotor tests is frequently confounded by a lack of understanding of a particular tool's psychometric properties, strengths, and weaknesses. To identify and appraise the most commonly used tests on health professional populations, 86 articles were reviewed and the top nine tests identified. Few tests have had sufficient validity or reliability testing on health professionals. Based on the evidence available, use of the Grooved Pegboard Test, the Purdue Pegboard Test, or the Finger Tapping Test is recommended for the evaluation of dexterity in a health professional population; however, this choice may be dependent on the task(s) to which findings are generalised. More rigorous evaluation of validity and other psychometric properties is required.

Enhancing perceived fit on competitive settings

A common finding in the brand ex tension literature is that perceived fit has a directionally consistent impact on the extension evaluation. However, most of the literature ignores a more common marketplace reality, namely, competition. Drawing on categorization theory and on the notion t hat consumers evaluate brand extensions by a category - based processing, this research argues that consumers not only transfer quality perceptions about parent brand products from one category to another but also its competitive context and links. Results s how that when perceived rivalry between two brands in the parent category is transferred to the extension category, perceived favourability increases, regardless of the perceived fit between the parent brand and the extension category.

Architectural experience in the everyday context

Informed by phenomenology and grounded theory this research identifies the general community's contextual sense-making in relation to their everyday experience of buildings producing a comprehensive theoretical framework that acknowledges a person's relationship with a building as dynamic and unfolding, as opposed to static and constant; and as emotive and existential as well as conceptual and perceptual. In this regard, the research makes an original contribution to environmental psychology, architecture and design and through this discipline knowledge to the design of more habitable buildings, and interior and urban environments.

Impact of automatic region-of-interest coding on perceived quality in mobile video

At present, the most reliable method to obtain end-user perceived quality is through subjective tests. In this paper, the impact of automatic region-of-interest (ROI) coding on perceived quality of mobile video is investigated. The evidence, which is based on perceptual comparison analysis, shows that the coding strategy improves perceptual quality. This is particularly true in low bit rate situations. The ROI detection method used in this paper is based on two approaches: - (1) automatic ROI by analyzing the visual contents automatically, and; - (2) eye-tracking based ROI by aggregating eye-tracking data across many users, used to both evaluate the accuracy of automatic ROI detection and the subjective quality of automatic ROI encoded video. The perceptual comparison analysis is based on subjective assessments with 54 participants, across different content types, screen resolutions, and target bit rates while comparing the two ROI detection methods. The results from the user study demonstrate that ROI-based video encoding has higher perceived quality compared to normal video encoded at a similar bit rate, particularly in the lower bit rate range.

The use of animation to promote student learning about the importance of mental well-being for tertiary study success

It is now widely acknowledged that student mental well-being is a critical factor in the tertiary student learning experience and is important to student learning success. The issue of student mental well-being also has implications for effective student transition out of university and into the world of work. It is therefore vital that intentional strategies are adopted by universities both within the formal curriculum, and outside it, to promote student well-being and to work proactively and preventatively to avoid a decline in student psychological well-being. This paper describes how the Queensland University of Technology Law School is using animation to teach students about the importance for their learning success of the protection of their mental well-being. Mayer and Moreno (2002) define an animation as an external representation with three main characteristics: (1) it is a pictorial representation, (2) it depicts apparent movement, and (3) it consists of objects that are artificially created through drawing or some other modelling technique. Research into the effectiveness of animation as a tool for tertiary student learning engagement is relatively new and growing field of enquiry. Nash argues, for example, that animations provide a “rich, immersive environment [that] encourages action and interactivity, which overcome an often dehumanizing learning management system approach” (Nash, 2009, 25). Nicholas states that contemporary millennial students in universities today, have been immersed in animated multimedia since their birth and in fact need multimedia to learn and communicate effectively (2008). However, it has also been established, for example through the work of Lowe (2003, 2004, 2008) that animations can place additional perceptual, attentional, and cognitive demands on students that they are not always equipped to cope with. There are many different genres of animation. The dominant style of animation used in the university learning environment is expository animation. This approach is a useful tool for visualising dynamic processes and is used to support student understanding of subjects and themes that might otherwise be perceived as theoretically difficult and disengaging. It is also a form of animation that can be constructed to avoid any potential negative impact on cognitive load that the animated genre might have. However, the nature of expository animation has limitations for engaging students, and can present as clinical and static. For this reason, the project applied Kombartzky, Ploetzner, Schlag, and Metz’s (2010) cognitive strategy for effective student learning from expository animation, and developed a hybrid form of animation that takes advantage of the best elements of expository animation techniques along with more engaging short narrative techniques. First, the paper examines the existing literature on the use of animation in tertiary educational contexts. Second, the paper describes how animation was used at QUT Law School to teach students about the issue of mental well-being and its importance to their learning success. Finally, the paper analyses the potential of the use of animation, and of the cognitive strategy and animation approach trialled in the project, as a teaching tool for the promotion of student learning about the importance of mental well-being.

Meän tapa puhua : Tornionlaakso pellolaisnuorten subjektiivisena paikkana ja murrealueena

This folk linguistic and human geographic study deals with dialect awareness, dialect use and place attachment. The study discusses theoretical and methodological issues current in sociolinguistics suggesting that the study of attitudes should be regarded as a core area in the study of variation and change. Furthermore, it is suggested that instead of putting effort into improving mental mapping methodology (adopted into folk linguistics from behavioural geography of the 1960 s), the more up-to-date thinking of space in geography should be adopted. The region and the dialect are treated as perceptual constructs in the study. The dialect perceptions of high school seniors in the Finnish Tornio Valley are examined trough a triangulation method involving a questionnaire, interviews and dialect recognition test as the research methods. The h in non-initial syllables (e.g. lähethä(ä)n, saunhaan ~ sauhnaan let s go into sauna ) turns out, expectedly, as the most salient feature in the dialect awareness of the locals and in terms of local identity construction. This feature is no longer heard in most of the present dialects of Finnish but is still thriving in the Tornio Valley in the cross-border dialect area. The metathetic variant (saunhaan > sauhnaan into sauna , käymhään > käyhmään to go ) is a characteristic feature of the Tornio Valley dialect. However, individual differences have long been found in the use of the h. This study challenges the essentialist variationist view of social categories (gender) by analysing variation from a quantitative but emic and human geographic point of view. The study shows that the variation of the h is statistically significantly patterned in terms of the degree of feeling of insideness vs. outsideness. New light is shed on the gender differences found in earlier sociolinguistic studies: differences in dialect use between and inside gender groups are illuminated by the fact that, in this case, it is young women who are generally less attached to the local community than young men, but this does not hold for all the individuals. The ideological motivation for preservation of the h seems to be based on the imagined community of Tornio Valley covering both the Swedish and the Finnish valley area. The general image of the dialect area and it s speakers, the shared cognitive dialect boundaries of the locals and the particularly deep level of awaress of the linguistic variation of the h are notable resources of the Tornio valley identity. Hyperdialectic forms analogical to the most frequently attested metathetic forms are found in the interview data, predicting that in this dialect the h will be maintained also in the future.

Studies of working memory in interrupted human-computer interaction

Distraction in the workplace is increasingly more common in the information age. Several tasks and sources of information compete for a worker's limited cognitive capacities in human-computer interaction (HCI). In some situations even very brief interruptions can have detrimental effects on memory. Nevertheless, in other situations where persons are continuously interrupted, virtually no interruption costs emerge. This dissertation attempts to reveal the mental conditions and causalities differentiating the two outcomes. The explanation, building on the theory of long-term working memory (LTWM; Ericsson and Kintsch, 1995), focuses on the active, skillful aspects of human cognition that enable the storage of task information beyond the temporary and unstable storage provided by short-term working memory (STWM). Its key postulate is called a retrieval structure an abstract, hierarchical knowledge representation built into long-term memory that can be utilized to encode, update, and retrieve products of cognitive processes carried out during skilled task performance. If certain criteria of practice and task processing are met, LTWM allows for the storage of large representations for long time periods, yet these representations can be accessed with the accuracy, reliability, and speed typical of STWM. The main thesis of the dissertation is that the ability to endure interruptions depends on the efficiency in which LTWM can be recruited for maintaing information. An observational study and a field experiment provide ecological evidence for this thesis. Mobile users were found to be able to carry out heavy interleaving and sequencing of tasks while interacting, and they exhibited several intricate time-sharing strategies to orchestrate interruptions in a way sensitive to both external and internal demands. Interruptions are inevitable, because they arise as natural consequences of the top-down and bottom-up control of multitasking. In this process the function of LTWM is to keep some representations ready for reactivation and others in a more passive state to prevent interference. The psychological reality of the main thesis received confirmatory evidence in a series of laboratory experiments. They indicate that after encoding into LTWM, task representations are safeguarded from interruptions, regardless of their intensity, complexity, or pacing. However, when LTWM cannot be deployed, the problems posed by interference in long-term memory and the limited capacity of the STWM surface. A major contribution of the dissertation is the analysis of when users must resort to poorer maintenance strategies, like temporal cues and STWM-based rehearsal. First, one experiment showed that task orientations can be associated with radically different patterns of retrieval cue encodings. Thus the nature of the processing of the interface determines which features will be available as retrieval cues and which must be maintained by other means. In another study it was demonstrated that if the speed of encoding into LTWM, a skill-dependent parameter, is slower than the processing speed allowed for by the task, interruption costs emerge. Contrary to the predictions of competing theories, these costs turned out to involve intrusions in addition to omissions. Finally, it was learned that in rapid visually oriented interaction, perceptual-procedural expectations guide task resumption, and neither STWM nor LTWM are utilized due to the fact that access is too slow. These findings imply a change in thinking about the design of interfaces. Several novel principles of design are presented, basing on the idea of supporting the deployment of LTWM in the main task.