Development of Control Systems for Safety Instrumented Systems

Safety Instrumented Systems (SIS) are designed to prevent and / or mitigate accidents, avoiding undesirable high potential risk scenarios, assuring protection of people`s health, protecting the environment and saving costs of industrial equipment. The design of these systems require formal methods for ensuring the safety requirements, but according material published in this area, has not identified a consolidated procedure to match the task. This sense, this article introduces a formal method for diagnosis and treatment of critical faults based on Bayesian network (BN) and Petri net (PN). This approach considers diagnosis and treatment for each safety instrumented function (SIF) including hazard and operability (HAZOP) study in the equipment or system under control. It also uses BN and Behavioral Petri net (BPN) for diagnoses and decision-making and the PN for the synthesis, modeling and control to be implemented by Safety Programmable Logic Controller (PLC). An application example considering the diagnosis and treatment of critical faults is presented and illustrates the methodology proposed.

Discrete-time mean variance optimal control of linear systems with Markovian jumps and multiplicative noise

In this article, we consider the stochastic optimal control problem of discrete-time linear systems subject to Markov jumps and multiplicative noise under three kinds of performance criterions related to the final value of the expectation and variance of the output. In the first problem it is desired to minimise the final variance of the output subject to a restriction on its final expectation, in the second one it is desired to maximise the final expectation of the output subject to a restriction on its final variance, and in the third one it is considered a performance criterion composed by a linear combination of the final variance and expectation of the output of the system. We present explicit sufficient conditions for the existence of an optimal control strategy for these problems, generalising previous results in the literature. We conclude this article presenting a numerical example of an asset liabilities management model for pension funds with regime switching.

Generalized Coupled Algebraic Riccati Equations for Discrete-time Markov Jump with Multiplicative Noise Systems

In this paper we consider the existence of the maximal and mean square stabilizing solutions for a set of generalized coupled algebraic Riccati equations (GCARE for short) associated to the infinite-horizon stochastic optimal control problem of discrete-time Markov jump with multiplicative noise linear systems. The weighting matrices of the state and control for the quadratic part are allowed to be indefinite. We present a sufficient condition, based only on some positive semi-definite and kernel restrictions on some matrices, under which there exists the maximal solution and a necessary and sufficient condition under which there exists the mean square stabilizing solution fir the GCARE. We also present a solution for the discounted and long run average cost problems when the performance criterion is assumed be composed by a linear combination of an indefinite quadratic part and a linear part in the state and control variables. The paper is concluded with a numerical example for pension fund with regime switching.

The cost of life expectancy and the implicit social valuation of life

A new method of estimating the economic value of life is proposed. Using cross-country data, an equation is estimated to explain life expectancy as a function of real consumption of goods and services. The associated cost function for life expectancy in terms of the prices of specific goods and services is used to estimate the cost of a reduction in age-specific mortality rates sufficient to save the life of one person. The cost of saving a life in OECD countries is as much as 1000 times that in the poorest countries. Ethical implications are discussed.

STD syndrome packets: Improving syndromic management of sexually transmitted diseases in developing countries

Objective: To design, introduce, and evaluate STD syndrome packets containing recommended drugs for each syndrome, four condoms, a partner treatment card, and a patient information leaflet, with the goal of improving sexually transmitted disease (STD) case management. Methods: Packet design evolved around available packaging technology, informed by pilot testing with nurses working in primary care clinics, doctors in private medical practices, and patients with an STD, in Hlabisa, South Africa. Evaluation 1 year later included analysis of distribution records and interviews with 16 nurses and 61 patients. Results: A cheap packet (2 U, S, cents each, excluding contents) compatible with current legislation was designed and introduced to six public sector clinics and as a short pilot to five private medical practices, Four thousand eighty-five packets were distributed to the clinics, equivalent to approximately 115% of the STDs reported over that period. All 16 nurses reported using the packets, but only 63% did so all the time because of occasional supply problems, All believed the packets improved treatment by saving time (75%), improving supply of condoms and partner cards (44%), and making treatment easier (56%), Patients also responded positively, and most said they would buy a packet (up to $5) at a pharmacy (84%) or store (63%) if available. Conclusions: The STD syndrome packets have the potential to improve STD syndromic management by standardizing therapy and improving the supply of condoms, partner cards, and information leaflets. Packets are popular with practitioners and patients, but consistent supply is essential for maximal impact, There may be scope for social marketing of the packets, which could further increase use.

The interaction between the equity premium and the risk-free rate

The equity premium arises from the interaction between the atemporal risk premium for equity, the risk-free rate of intertemporal substitution and the impact of risk on the precautionary motive for saving. Depending on parameter values, the equity premium may either be increased or reduced by the presence of undiversifiable background risk. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

A model of migrants' remittances with human capital investment and intrafamilial transfers

This study analyzes data on migrants' remittances using a two-period theory of intergenerational transfers based on an informal, intrafamilial loan arrangement using weak altruism, a behavior between strong altruism and pure self-interest. The model provides an integrated theory of migrants' remittances, human capital investment decisions, and intrafamilial transfers applicable to low-income countries with no official pension schemes and imperfect capital markets. Propositions, derived from the theory, are tested, re-analyzing original survey data on remittances of Pacific island migrants in Sydney. When weak altruism and strong altruism yield opposite predictions, the econometric results tend to confirm the former hypothesis and invalidate the latter.

Cost Effectiveness of Positron Emission Tomography in Patients With Hodgkin`s Lymphoma in Unconfirmed Complete Remission or Partial Remission After First-Line Therapy

Purpose To assess the cost effectiveness of fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) in patients with Hodgkin`s lymphoma (HL) with unconfirmed complete remission (CRu) or partial remission (PR) after first-line treatment. Patients and Methods One hundred thirty patients with HL were prospectively studied. After treatment, all patients with CRu/PR were evaluated with FDG-PET. In addition, PET-negative patients were evaluated with standard follow-up, and PET-positive patients were evaluated with biopsies of the positive lesions. Local unit costs of procedures and tests were evaluated. Cost effectiveness was determined by evaluating projected annual economic impact of strategies without and with FDG-PET on HL management. Results After treatment, CRu/PR was observed in 50 (40.0%) of the 127 patients; the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of FDG-PET were 100%, 92.0%, 92.3%, and 100%, respectively (accuracy of 95.9%). Local restaging costs without PET were $350,050 compared with $283,262 with PET, a 19% decrease. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is -$3,268 to detect one true case. PET costs represented 1% of total costs of HL treatment. Simulated costs in the 974 patients registered in the 2008 Brazilian public health care database showed that the strategy including restaging PET would have a total program cost of $56,498,314, which is $516,942 less than without restaging PET, resulting in a 1% cost saving. Conclusion FDG-PET demonstrated 95.9% accuracy in restaging for patients with HL with CRu/PR after first-line therapy. Given the observed probabilities, FDG-PET is highly cost effective and would reduce costs for the public health care program in Brazil.

Simplified criteria for the diagnosis of autoimmune hepatitis

Diagnosis of autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) may be challenging. However, early diagnosis is important because immunosuppression is life-saving. Diagnostic criteria of the International Autoimmune Hepatitis Group (IAIHG) were complex and purely meant for scientific purposes. This study of the IAIHG aims to define simplified diagnostic criteria for routine clinical practice. Candidate criteria included sex, age, autoantibodies, immunoglobutins, absence of viral hepatitis, and histology. The training set included 250 AIH patients and 193 controls from 11 centers worldwide. Scores were built from variables showing predictive ability in univariate analysis. Diagnostic value of each score was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The best score was validated using data of an additional 109 AIH patients and 284 controls. This score included autoantibodies, immunoglobulin G, histology, and exclusion of viral hepatitis. The area under the curve for prediction of AIH was 0.946 in the training set and 0.91 in the validation set. Based on the ROC curves, two cutoff points were chosen. The score was found to have 88% sensitivity and 97% specificity (cutoff >= 6) and 81% sensitivity and 99% specificity (cutoff 2:7) in the validation set. Conclusion: A reliable diagnosis of AIH can be made using a very simple diagnostic score. We propose the diagnosis of probable AIH at a cutoff point greater than 6 points and definite AIH 7 points or higher.

Ten-year survival of ART restorations in permanent posterior teeth

This study evaluated the 10-year clinical performance of high-viscosity glass-ionomer cement placed in posterior permanent teeth by means of the Atraumatic Restorative Treatment (ART) approach. One operator placed 167 single- and 107 multiple-surface restorations in 43 high-risk caries pregnant women (mean decayed teeth = 9.8 +/- 5.5). Examinations were performed at 1-, 2-, and 10-year intervals according to ART criteria. In the last evaluation, the US Public Health Service (USPHS) criteria were also used. After 10 years, 129 restorations (47.1%) were evaluated and achieved a cumulative survival rate of 49.0% (SE 7.2%). The 10-year survival of single- and multiple-surface ART restorations assessed using the ART criteria were 65.2% (SE 7.3%) and 30.6% (SE 9.9%), respectively. This difference was significant (jackknife SE of difference; p < 0.05). Using the USPHS criteria, the 10-year survival of single- and multiple-surface ART restorations were 86.5% and 57.6%, respectively. The primary causes of failure were total loss (9.3%) and marginal defects (5.4%). The survival rates observed, especially for the single-surface restorations, confirm the potential of the ART approach for restoring and saving posterior permanent teeth.

The point-of-referral barrier - a factor in the success of telehealth

A feasibility study was carried out to test the hypothesis that, for an effective telehealth service, a full-time coordinator is required to act as a single point of contact for consultation requests. By shifting the responsibility for telepaediatrics from the referrer to the provider, the telehealth process becomes equally (or more) attractive as the conventional alternative. Preliminary results showed that, within six months, telepaediatric activity increased to an average of 8 h per month. Not only did certain health services become more accessible to children and their families in remote areas of Queensland, but significant savings were also made. At least 12 patient transfers were avoided to and from the tertiary facility, with an estimated minimum saving of $18,000 to the health-care provider.

Precipitation hardening of Cu-Fe-Cr alloys - Part II - Microstructural characterisation

This research is part of a project whose scope was to investigate the engineering properties of new non-commercial alloy formulations based on the Cu rich corner of the Cu-Fe-Cr ternary system with the primary aim of exploring the development of a new cost-effective high-strength, high-conductivity copper alloy. Promising properties have been measured for the following alloys: Cu-0.7wt%Cr-0.3wt%Fe and Cu-0.7wt%Cr-2.0wt%Fe. This paper reports on the microstructural characterisation of these alloys and discusses the mechanical and electrical properties of these alloys in terms of their microstructure, particularly the formation of precipitates. These alloys have evinced properties that warrant further investigation. Cost modelling has shown that Cu-0.7wt%Cr-0.3wt%Fe is approximately 25% cheaper to produce than commercial Cu-1%Cr. It has also been shown to be more cost efficient on a yield stress and % IACS per dollar basis. The reason for the cost saving is that the Cu-0.7%Cr-0.3%Fe alloy can be made with low carbon ferro-chrome additions as the source of chromium rather than the more expensive Cu-Cr master-alloy. For applications in which cost is one of the primary materials selection criteria, it is envisaged that there would be numerous applications in both cast and wrought form, where the Cu-0.7%Cr-0.3%Fe alloy would be more suitable than Cu-1%Cr. (C) 2001 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Towards a blood-stage vaccine for malaria: Are we following all the leads?

Although the malaria parasite was discovered more than 120 years ago, it is only during the past 20 years, following the cloning of malaria genes, that we have been able to think rationally about vaccine design and development. Effective vaccines for malaria could interrupt the life cycle of the parasite at different stages in the human host or in the mosquito. The purpose of this review is to outline the challenges we face in developing a vaccine that will limit growth of the parasite during the stage within red blood cells - the stage responsible for all the symptoms and pathology of malaria. More than 15 vaccine trials have either been completed or are in progress, and many more are planned. Success in current trials could lead to a vaccine capable of saving more than 2 million lives per year.

Realtime fetal ultrasound by telemedicine in Queensland. A successful venture?

We have established a realtime fetal tele-ultrasound consultation service in Queensland, which has been integrated into our routine clinical practice, The service, which uses ISDN transmission at 384 kbit/s, allows patients in Townsville to be examined by subspecialists in Brisbane, 1500 km away. For the 90 tele-ultrasound consultations performed for the first 71 patients, 90% of the babies have been delivered, and outcome data have been received on all the pregnancies. All significant anomalies and diagnoses have been confirmed. The referring clinicians would have physically referred 24 of the 71 patients to Brisbane in the absence of telemedicine. A crude cost-benefit calculation suggests that the tele-ultrasound service resulted in a net saving of A$6340, and at the same time enabled almost four times the number of consultations to be carried out.

Long-run growth effects of taxation in a non-scale growth model with innovation

In previous studies, taxing income or consumption hinders long-run growth. Incorporating saving and leisure into the non-scale Schumpeterian model of [Journal of Political Economy 107 (1999) 715-730], we show that the usual growth effects of taxing consumption and labor income do not exist. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.