The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We compare the performance of our index with other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Hemolytic activity of alternative complement pathway as an indicator of innate immunity in pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus)

The objective of this study was to evaluate the methodology to establish the hemolytic activity of alternative complement pathway as an indicator of the innate immunity in Brazilian fish pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus), in addition to verifying the influence of β-glucan as an immunostimulant. Fish were fed with diets containing 0, 0.1 and 1% β-glucan, during seven days, and then inoculated with Aeromonas hydrophila. Seven days after the challenge, they were bled for serum extraction. The methodology consisted of a kinetic assay that allows calculating the required time for serum proteins of the complement to promote 50% lysis of a rabbit red blood cell suspension. The method developed in mammals was successfully applied for pacu and determined that the hemolytic activity of the proteins of the complement system (alternative pathway) increased after the pathogen challenge, but was not influenced by the β-glucan treatment.

Electrical conductivity as an indicator of pea seed aging of stored at different temperatures

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estimation of fecal production, digesta flow and digestibility in dairy heifers with different indicator

Objetivou-se com este trabalho avaliar a produção fecal por meio do indicador interno, fibra em detergente neutro indigestível (FDNi), e externos, cromo complexado com ácido etilenodiaminotetracético (Cr-EDTA ) e o cloreto de itérbio (YbCl3), além de estimar o fluxo duodenal da matéria seca e os coeficientes de digestibilidades aparentes total, ruminal e pós-ruminal, de diferentes nutrientes. Foram utilizadas oito novilhas mestiças Holandês/Zebu, distribuídas em duplo quadrado latino 4 x 4. Os indicadores Cr-EDTA, YbCl3 e o FDNi não estimaram produção fecal de forma eficiente (p < 0,05), obtendo resultado de 1,64; 1,71 e 2,71 kg dia-1, respectivamente, quando comparado à coleta total de fezes, que obteve resultado de 1,39 kg dia-1. Os valores estimados de fluxo de matéria seca, tanto para a metodologia de único, quanto para de duplo indicador, podem ser considerados biologicamente aceitáveis. Contudo, o valor obtido pela associação Cr-EDTA/YbCl3, utilizada na forma de duplo indicador, foi o mais confiável, pela melhor recuperação dos indicadores externos (Cr-EDTA e YbCl3), que obtiveram médias de 89 e 85%, respectivamente, em comparação ao interno (FDNi), que obteve média 67%. Os coeficientes de digestibilidade ruminal e pós ruminal, estimados pela associação Cr-EDTA/YbCl3, foram considerados melhores, em consequência do valor de fluxo de matéria seca estimado por esta associação.

Prognostic significance of beta-2 adrenergic receptor in oral squamous cell carcinoma

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Indicator-free electrochemical DNA hybridization biosensor

A new electrochemical hybridization biosensor protocol without an external indicator is described. The biosensor format involves the immobilization of inosine-substituted (guanine-free) probe onto the carbon paste transducer, and a direct chronopotentiometric detection of the duplex formation by the appearance of the guanine oxidation peak of the target. Such a use of the intrinsic DNA electrochemical response for monitoring hybridization events offers several advantages (over the common use of external indicators), including the appearance of a new peak, a Aat background, or simplicity. A 4 min short hybridization period allows a detection limit around 120 ng/ml. Performance characteristics of the sensor are described along with future prospects. (C) 1998 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Prognostic factors for perioperative pulmonary events among patients undergoing upper abdominal surgery

CONTEXTO E OBJETIVO: Associações significativas entre cirurgia do abdome superior e eventos pulmonares do período perioperatório foram investigadas em pacientes com condições pulmonares pré-operatórias submetidos a anestesia geral. TIPO DE ESTUDO E LOCAL: Estudo retrospectivo cujos dados foram retirados de banco de dados obtidos prospectivamente de forma protocolada, de 1 de janeiro de 1999 a 31 de dezembro de 2004, em hospital universitário terciário. MÉTODOS: Estudados 3107 pacientes com mais de 11 anos, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) I, II, III, com cirurgia de abdome superior sob anestesia geral, enviados à sala de recuperação. Condições pré-operatórias analisadas por regressão logística foram: idade, sexo, estado físico ASA, insuficiência cardíaca congestiva, asma, doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica, insuficiência respiratória e hábito de fumar. Os resultados estudados, ou variáveis dependentes, incluíram eventos intra- e pós-operatórios: broncoespasmo, hipoxemia, hipercapnia, intubação prolongada e secreção de vias aéreas. RESULTADOS: Dos 3.107 pacientes: 1.540 eram homens, 1.649 mulheres, tinham média de 48 anos, 1088 ASA I, 1402 ASA II, 617 ASA III, com insuficiência cardíaca havia 80, asma, 82, doença pulmonar obstrutiva, 122, insuficiência respiratória, 21, hábito de fumar, 428. Pela regressão logística, sexo feminino (p < 0.001), idade maior que 70 anos (p < 0.01), hábito de fumar (p < 0.001) e doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica (p < 0.02) influenciaram significativamente o desenvolvimento de eventos pulmonares, principalmente hipoxemia e broncospasmo, em ambos os períodos, mas não nos mesmos pacientes. Asma e insuficiência cardíaca não se associaram com eventos pulmonares na sala de recuperação. CONCLUSÃO: em cirurgia do abdome superior sob anestesia geral, sexo feminino, idade maior que 70 anos, hábito de fumar e doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica foram fatores de risco independentes para a ocorrência de eventos pulmonares intra- e pós-operatórios.

Canine Subcutaneous Mast Cell Tumors: Cellular Proliferation and KIT Expression as Prognostic Indices

Molecular assays are widely used to prognosticate canine cutaneous mast cell tumors (MCT). There is limited information about these prognostic assays used on MCT that arise in the subcutis. The aims of this study were to evaluate the utility of KIT immunohistochemical labeling pattern, c-KIT mutational status (presence of internal tandem duplications in exon 11), and proliferation markers-including mitotic index, Ki67, and argyrophilic nucleolar organizing regions (AgNOR)-as independent prognostic markers for local recurrence and/or metastasis in canine subcutaneous MCT. A case-control design was used to analyze 60 subcutaneous MCT from 60 dogs, consisting of 24 dogs with subsequent local recurrence and 12 dogs with metastasis, as compared to dogs matched by breed, age, and sex with subcutaneous MCT that did not experience these events. Mitotic index, Ki67, the combination of Ki67 and AgNOR, and KIT cellular localization pattern were significantly associated with local recurrence and metastasis, thereby demonstrating their prognostic value for subcutaneous MCT. No internal tandem duplication mutations were detected in exon 11 of c-KIT in any tumors. Because c-KIT mutations have been demonstrated in only 20 to 30% of cutaneous MCT and primarily in tumors of higher grade, the number of subcutaneous MCT analyzed in this study may be insufficient to draw conclusions on the role c-KIT mutations in these tumors.

Prognostic value of canine frozen-thawed semen parameters on in vitro sperm-oocyte interactions

Combining the data from conventional semen analysis with oocyte penetration assays should improve the assessment of the fertilizing ability of a semen sample. Thus, the objective of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic value of various semen parameters on the in vitro interactions between frozen-thawed canine sperm and homologous oocytes. Ten ejaculates from five stud dogs (two ejaculates/dog) were collected by digital manipulation. Semen samples were evaluated, extended in Tris-egg yolk-glycerol, frozen and stored in liquid nitrogen, and thawed several weeks later. Samples were evaluated for motility and sperm populations by computer-aided semen analysis (CASA), plasma membrane integrity (carboxy-fluorescein diacetate and propidium iodide), and sperm morphology (Bengal Rose). Thawed spermatozoa were also incubated with homologous oocytes for 18 h in an atmosphere of 5% CO2 and 95% air at 38 degrees C and sperm-oocyte interactions were evaluated. Simple linear regression models were calculated, with sperm parameters as independent variables and sperm-oocyte interactions as the dependent variable. There were significant associations between: percentage of oocytes bound to spermatozoa and beat cross frequency (BCF; R-2 = 63%); percentage of oocytes that interacted with spermatozoa and BCF (R-2 = 73%); and number of penetrated spermatozoa and velocity average pathway (VAP; R-2 = 64%) and velocity straight line (VSL; R-2 = 64%). Although plasma membrane integrity and sperm morphology had little prognostic value for in vitro interactions between canine frozen-thawed sperm and homologous oocytes, some motility patterns (evaluated by CASA) were predictive of in vitro sperm-oocyte interactions. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Three-Dimensional Ultrasonographic Assessment of Fetal Total Lung Volume as a Prognostic Factor in Primary Pleural Effusion

Objectives-The purpose of this study was to predict perinatal outcomes using fetal total lung volumes assessed by 3-dimensional ultrasonography (3DUS) in primary pleural effusion.Methods-Between July 2005 and July 2010, total lung volumes were prospectively estimated in fetuses with primary pleural effusion by 3DUS using virtual organ computer-aided analysis software. The first and last US examinations were considered in the analysis. The observed/expected total lung volumes were calculated. Main outcomes were perinatal death (up to 28 days of life) and respiratory morbidity (orotracheal intubation with mechanical respiratory support >48 hours).Results-Twelve of 19 fetuses (63.2%) survived. Among the survivors, 7 (58.3%) had severe respiratory morbidity. The observed/expected total lung volume at the last US examination before birth was significantly associated with perinatal death (P < .01) and respiratory morbidity (P < .01) as well as fetal hydrops (P < .01) and bilateral effusion (P = .01).Conclusions-Fetal total lung volumes may be useful for the prediction of perinatal outcomes in primary pleural effusion.

Logistic regression analysis of potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism

Objective: To identify potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE), establishing a mathematical model to predict the risk for fatal PTE and nonfatal PTE.Method: the reports on 4,813 consecutive autopsies performed from 1979 to 1998 in a Brazilian tertiary referral medical school were reviewed for a retrospective study. From the medical records and autopsy reports of the 512 patients found with macroscopically and/or microscopically,documented PTE, data on demographics, underlying diseases, and probable PTE site of origin were gathered and studied by multiple logistic regression. Thereafter, the jackknife method, a statistical cross-validation technique that uses the original study patients to validate a clinical prediction rule, was performed.Results: the autopsy rate was 50.2%, and PTE prevalence was 10.6%. In 212 cases, PTE was the main cause of death (fatal PTE). The independent variables selected by the regression significance criteria that were more likely to be associated with fatal PTE were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03), trauma (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 2.20 to 32.81), right-sided cardiac thrombi (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.77), pelvic vein thrombi (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.19 to 10.05); those most likely to be associated with nonfatal PTE were systemic arterial hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.80), pneumonia (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.71), and sepsis (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.40). The results obtained from the application of the equation in the 512 cases studied using logistic regression analysis suggest the range in which logit p > 0.336 favors the occurrence of fatal PTE, logit p < - 1.142 favors nonfatal PTE, and logit P with intermediate values is not conclusive. The cross-validation prediction misclassification rate was 25.6%, meaning that the prediction equation correctly classified the majority of the cases (74.4%).Conclusions: Although the usefulness of this method in everyday medical practice needs to be confirmed by a prospective study, for the time being our results suggest that concerning prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PTE, strict attention should be given to those patients presenting the variables that are significant in the logistic regression model.

Caution for using ventilatory frequency as an indicator of stress in fish

This study tested the use of ventilatory frequency (VF) as an indicator of stress in the Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (L.). Firstly, we tested the relationship between VF and plasma cortisol after confinement. Confined fish showed higher VF and plasma cortisol levels, but the latter continued to increase significantly for longer time than VF. Secondly, we conducted another experiment to test the use of VF as indicator of fish stress. In four out of six treatment, we confined the fish for different intervals (30 s, 5, 15 or 30 min). The others were used as control. In one, no handling was imposed. The other control consisted of introducing the partition (the same used to perform the confinement) into the aquarium for less than 4 s, without confinement and immediately removing the partition (partition control). Ventilatory frequency was increased for the partition control as much as for the longer duration of confinement. This clearly indicates that VF is a very sensitivity response to disturbance, but of limited use because this parameter does not reflect the severity of the stimulus. Thus, although VF is a non-invasive technique that does not require sophisticated recording equipment, its usefulness is limited. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Eye color as an indicator of social rank in the fish Nile tilapia

We investigated the association of eye color with the dominant-subordinate relationship in the fish Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus. Eye color pattern was also examined in relation to the intensity of attacks. We paired 20 size-matched fish (intruder: 73.69 ± 11.49 g; resident: 75.42 ± 8.83 g) and evaluated eye color and fights. These fish were isolated in individual aquaria for 10 days and then their eye color was measured 5 min before pairing (basal values). Twenty minutes after pairing, eye color and fights were quantified for 10 min. Clear establishment of social hierarchy was observed in 7 of 10 pairs of fish. Number of attacks ranged from 1 to 168 among pairs. The quartile was calculated for these data and the pairs were then divided into two classes: low-attack (1 to 111 attacks - 2 lower quartiles) or high-attack (112 to 168 attacks - 2 higher quartiles). Dominance decreased the eye-darkening patterns of the fish after pairing, while subordinance increased darkening compared to dominance. Subordinate fish in low-attack confrontations presented a darker eye compared to dominant fish and to the basal condition. We also observed a paler eye pattern in dominants that shared low-attack interactions after pairing compared to the subordinates and within the group. However, we found no differences in the darkening pattern between dominants and subordinates from the high-attack groups. We conclude that eye color is associated with social rank in this species. Moreover, the association between eye color and social rank in the low-attack pairs may function to reduce aggression.