Forecasting outcomes in tennis matches using within-match betting markets

Klaassen and Magnus (2003) provide a model of the probability of a given player winning a tennis match, with the prediction updated on a point-by-point basis. This paper provides a point-by-point comparison of that model with the probability of a given player winning the match, as implied by betting odds. The predictions implied by the betting odds match the model predictions closely, with an extremely high correlation being found between the model and the betting market. The results for both men’s and women’s matches also suggest that there is a high level of efficiency in the betting market, demonstrating that betting markets are a good predictor of the outcomes of tennis matches. The significance of service breaks and service being held is anticipated up to four points prior to the end of the game. However, the tendency of players to lose more points than would be expected after conceding a break of service is not captured instantaneously in betting odds. In contrast, there is no evidence of a biased reaction to a player winning a game on service.

Multilingualism and speech-language competence in early childhood: Impact on academic and social-emotional outcomes at school

This large-scale longitudinal population study provided a rare opportunity to consider the interface between multilingualism and speech-language competence on children’s academic and social-emotional outcomes and to determine whether differences between groups at 4 to 5 years persist, deepen, or disappear with time and schooling. Four distinct groups were identified from the Kindergarten cohort of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC) (1) English-only + typical speech and language (n = 2,012); (2) multilingual + typical speech and language (n = 476); (3) English-only + speech and language concern (n = 643); and (4) multilingual + speech and language concern (n = 109). Two analytic approaches were used to compare these groups. First, a matched case-control design was used to randomly match multilingual children with speech and language concern (group 4, n = 109) to children in groups 1, 2, and 3 on gender, age, and family socio-economic position in a cross-sectional comparison of vocabulary, school readiness, and behavioral adjustment. Next, analyses were applied to the whole sample to determine longitudinal effects of group membership on teachers’ ratings of literacy, numeracy, and behavioral adjustment at ages 6 to 7 and 8 to 9 years. At 4 to 5 years, multilingual children with speech and language concern did equally well or better than English-only children (with or without speech and language concern) on school readiness tests but performed more poorly on measures of English vocabulary and behavior. At ages 6 to 7 and 8 to 9, the early gap between English-only and multilingual children had closed. Multilingualism was not found to contribute to differences in literacy and numeracy outcomes at school; instead, outcomes were more related to concerns about children’s speech and language in early childhood. There were no group differences for socio-emotional outcomes. Early evidence for the combined risks of multilingualism plus speech and language concern was not upheld into the school years.

Young drivers’ responses to anti-speeding advertisements: Comparison of self-report and objective measures of persuasive processing and outcomes

Objective Self-report measures are typically used to assess the effectiveness of road safety advertisements. However, psychophysiological measures of persuasive processing (i.e., skin conductance response [SCR]) and objective driving measures of persuasive outcomes (i.e., in-vehicle GPS devices) may provide further insights into the effectiveness of these advertisements. This study aimed to explore the persuasive processing and outcomes of two anti-speeding advertisements by incorporating both self-report and objective measures of speeding behaviour. In addition, this study aimed to compare the findings derived from these different measurement approaches. Methods Young drivers (N = 20, Mage = 21.01 years) viewed either a positive or negative emotion-based anti-speeding television advertisement. Whilst viewing the advertisement, SCR activity was measured to assess ad-evoked arousal responses. The RoadScout® GPS device was then installed into participants’ vehicles for one week to measure on-road speed-related driving behaviour. Self-report measures assessed persuasive processing (emotional and arousal responses) and actual driving behaviour. Results There was general correspondence between the self-report measures of arousal and the SCR and between the self-report measure of actual driving behaviour and the objective driving data (as assessed via the GPS devices). Conclusions This study provides insights into how psychophysiological and GPS devices could be used as objective measures in conjunction with self-report measures to further understand the persuasive processes and outcomes of emotion-based anti-speeding advertisements.

Prognostic value of biochemical liver parameters in neonatal sepsis-associated cholestasis

Aims The aim of the study was to evaluate the significance of total bilirubin, aspartate transaminase (AST), alanine transaminase and gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) for predicting outcome in sepsis-associated cholestasis. Methods: A retrospective cohort review of the hospital records was performed in 181 neonates admitted to the Neonatal Care Unit. A comparison was performed between subjects with low and high liver values based on cut-off values from ROC analysis. We defined poor prognosis to be when a subject had prolonged cholestasis of more than 3.5 months, developed severe sepsis, septic shock or had a fatal outcome. Results: The majority of the subjects were male (56%), preterm (56%) and had early onset sepsis (73%). The poor prognosis group had lower initial values of GGT compared with the good prognosis group (P = 0.003). Serum GGT (cut-off value of 85.5 U/L) and AST (cut-off value of 51 U/L) showed significant correlation with the outcome following multivariate analysis. The odds ratio (OR) of low GGT and high AST were OR 4.3 (95% CI:1.6 to11.8) and OR 2.9 (95% CI:1.1 to 8), respectively, for poor prognosis. In subjects with normal AST values, those with low GGT value had relative risk of 2.52 (95% CI:1.4 to 3.5) for poorer prognosis compared with those with normal or high GGT. Conclusion: Serum GGT and AST values can be used to predict the prognosis of patients with sepsis-associated cholestasis

Supporting quality timely PhD completions: Delivering research outcomes

The case study used a three-phase organising process to explain how design and implementation of an accessible and interactive electronic thesis submission form streamlined quality assurance of theses and their timely dissemination via an online thesis repository. The quality of the theses submitted is assured by key academics in their final sign off of the form. It describes the role of shared cultural value in ensuring ready acceptance of a change process within one university and highlights the value of communication in achieving positive change. Quality standards as defined by an external policy framework are shown to be interpreted at the local university level to enhance the PhD completion experience. It describes the impact of moving quality assurance processes to an online environment on research activities; considering the potential for quality assurance to improve universities’ teaching, learning and research activities by facilitating academic oversight of the quality assurance process and reducing the overheads associated with monitoring, measuring and reporting on quality assurance measures.

Predicting surgical outcomes for paediatric spinal deformity patients using subject specific finite element models

INTRODUCTION Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is a spinal deformity, which may require surgical correction by attaching rods to the patient’s spine using screws inserted into the vertebrae. Complication rates for deformity correction surgery are unacceptably high. Determining an achievable correction without overloading the adjacent spinal tissues or implants requires an understanding of the mechanical interaction between these components. Our novel patient specific modelling software creates individualized finite element models (FEM) representing the thoracolumbar spine and ribcage of scoliosis patients. We have recently applied the model to investigate the influence of increasing magnitudes of surgically applied corrective force on predicted deformity correction...

Organisational belongingness mediates the relationship between sources of stress and post-trauma outcomes in fire-fighters

Previous research with emergency service workers has examined the relationship between operational and organisational stress and negative indicators of mental health, and generally found that organisational stress is more strongly related to pathology than operational stress. The current study aimed to create and test a model predicting both posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and posttraumatic growth (PTG) simultaneously in a sample of fire-fighters (N = 250). The results found that the model demonstrated good fit for the data. In contrast to previous research operational stress was directly related to PTSD symptoms, while organisational stress was not. Organisational stress was indirectly related to PTG, through the mediating role of organisational belongingness. This research identified organisational belongingness as a good target for psychosocial interventions aimed at promoting positive adaptation following the experience of trauma in emergency services.

A preliminary investigation into adrenal responsiveness and outcomes in patients with cardiogenic shock after acute myocardial infarction

PURPOSE: This study investigated the significance of baseline cortisol levels and adrenal response to corticotropin in shocked patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). METHODS: A short corticotropin stimulation test was performed in 35 patients with cardiogenic shock after AMI by intravenously injecting of 250 μg of tetracosactrin (Synacthen). Blood samples were obtained at baseline (T0) before and at 30 (T30) and 60 (T60) minutes after the test to determine plasma total cortisol (TC) and free cortisol concentrations. The main outcome measure was in-hospital mortality and its association with T0 TC and maximum response to corticotropin (maximum difference [Δ max] in cortisol levels between T0 and the highest value between T30 and T60). RESULTS: The in-hospital mortality was 37%, and the median time to death was 4 days (interquartile range, 3-9 days). There was some evidence of an increased mortality in patients with T0 TC concentrations greater than 34 μg/dL (P=.07). Maximum difference by itself was not an independent predictor of death. Patients with a T0 TC 34 μg/dL or less and Δ max greater than 9 μg/dL appeared to have the most favorable survival (91%) when compared with the other 2 groups: T0 34 μg/dL or less and Δ max 9 μg/dL or less or T0 34 μg/dL or higher and Δ max greater than 9 μg/dL (75%; P=.8) and T0 greater than 34 μg/dL and Δ max 9 μg/dL or less (60%; P=.02). Corticosteroid therapy was associated with an increased mortality (P=.03). There was a strong correlation between plasma TC and free cortisol (r=0.85). CONCLUSIONS: A high baseline plasma TC was associated with a trend toward increased mortality in patients with cardiogenic shock post-AMI. Patients with lower baseline TC, but with an inducible adrenal response, appeared to have a survival benefit. A prognostic system based on basal TC and Δ max similar to that described in septic shock appears feasible in this cohort. Corticosteroid therapy was associated with adverse outcomes. These findings require further validation in larger studies.

Living well with diabetes: 24-month outcomes from a randomized trial of telephone-delivered weight loss and physical activity intervention to improve glycemic control

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of a telephone-delivered behavioral weight loss and physical activity intervention targeting Australian primary care patients with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Pragmatic randomized controlled trial of telephone counseling (n = 151) versus usual care (n = 151). Reported here are 18-month (end-of-intervention) and 24-month (maintenance) primary outcomes of weight, moderate-to-vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA; via accelerometer), and HbA1c level. Secondary outcomes include dietary energy intake and diet quality, waist circumference, lipid levels, and blood pressure. Data were analyzed via adjusted linear mixed models with multiple imputation of missing data. RESULTS: Relative to usual-care participants, telephone counseling participants achieved modest, but significant, improvements in weight loss (relative rate [RR] -1.42% of baseline body weight [95% CI -2.54 to -0.30% of baseline body weight]), MVPA (RR 1.42 [95% CI 1.06-1.90]), diet quality (2.72 [95% CI 0.55-4.89]), and waist circumference (-1.84 cm [95% CI -3.16 to -0.51 cm]), but not in HbA1c level (RR 0.99 [95% CI 0.96-1.02]), or other cardio-metabolic markers. None of the outcomes showed a significant change/deterioration over the maintenance period. However, only the intervention effect for MVPA remained statistically significant at 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: The modest improvements in weight loss and behavior change, but the lack of changes in cardio-metabolic markers, may limit the utility, scalability, and sustainability of such an approach.

Altered formalin-induced pain and Fos induction in the periaqueductal grey of preadolescent rats following neonatal LPS exposure

Animal and human studies have demonstrated that early pain experiences can produce alterations in the nociceptive systems later in life including increased sensitivity to mechanical, thermal, and chemical stimuli. However, less is known about the impact of neonatal immune challenge on future responses to noxious stimuli and the reactivity of neural substrates involved in analgesia. Here we demonstrate that rats exposed to Lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 0.05 mg/kg IP, Salmonella enteritidis) during postnatal day (PND) 3 and 5 displayed enhanced formalin-induced flinching but not licking following formalin injection at PND 22. This LPS-induced hyperalgesia was accompanied by distinct recruitment of supra-spinal regions involved in analgesia as indicated by significantly attenuated Fos-protein induction in the rostral dorsal periaqueductal grey (DPAG) as well as rostral and caudal axes of the ventrolateral PAG (VLPAG). Formalin injections were associated with increased Fos-protein labelling in lateral habenula (LHb) as compared to medial habenula (MHb), however the intensity of this labelling did not differ as a result of neonatal immune challenge. These data highlight the importance of neonatal immune priming in programming inflammatory pain sensitivity later in development and highlight the PAG as a possible mediator of this process

Altered nociceptive, endocrine, and dorsal horn neuron responses in rats following a neonatal immune challenge

Summary The neonatal period is characterized by significant plasticity where the immune, endocrine, and nociceptive systems undergo fine-tuning and maturation. Painful experiences during this period can result in long-term alterations in the neurocircuitry underlying nociception, including increased sensitivity to mechanical or thermal stimuli. Less is known about the impact of neonatal exposure to mild inflammatory stimuli, such as lipopolysaccharide (LPS), on subsequent inflammatory pain responses. Here we examine the impact of neonatal LPS exposure on inflammatory pain sensitivity and HPA axis activity during the first three postnatal weeks. Wistar rats were injected with LPS (0.05 mg/kg IP, Salmonella enteritidis) or saline on postnatal days (PNDs) 3 and 5 and later subjected to the formalin test at PNDs 7, 13, and 22. One hour after formalin injection, blood was collected to assess corticosterone responses. Transverse spinal cord slices were also prepared for whole-cell patch clamp recording from lumbar superficial dorsal horn neurons (SDH). Brains were obtained at PND 22 and the hypothalamus was isolated to measure glucocorticoid (GR) and mineralocorticoid receptor (MR) transcript expression using qRT-PCR. Behavioural analyses indicate that at PND 7, no significant differences were observed between saline- or LPS-challenged rats. At PND 13, LPS-challenged rats exhibited enhanced licking (p < .01), and at PND 22, increased flinching in response to formalin injection (p < .05). LPS-challenged rats also displayed increased plasma corticosterone at PND 7 and PND 22 (p < .001) but not at PND 13 following formalin administration. Furthermore, at PND 22 neonatal LPS exposure induced decreased levels of GR mRNA and increased levels of MR mRNA in the hypothalamus. The intrinsic properties of SDH neurons were similar at PND 7 and PND 13. However, at PND 22, ipsilateral SDH neurons in LPS-challenged rats had a lower input resistance compared to their saline-challenged counterparts (p < .05). These data suggest neonatal LPS exposure produces developmentally regulated changes in formalin-induced behavioural responses, corticosterone levels, and dorsal horn neuron properties following noxious stimulation later in life. These findings highlight the importance of immune activation during the neonatal period in shaping pain sensitivity later in life. This programming involves both spinal cord neurons and the HPA axis.

Effects of a multiple health behavior change intervention for colorectal cancer survivors on psychosocial outcomes and quality of life: A randomized controlled trial

Background Multiple health behavior change can ameliorate adverse effects of cancer. Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of a multiple health behavior change intervention (CanChange) for colorectal cancer survivors on psychosocial outcomes and quality of life. Methods A total of 410 colorectal cancer survivors were randomized to a 6-month telephone-based health coaching intervention (11 sessions using acceptance and commitment therapy strategies focusing on physical activity, weight management, diet, alcohol, and smoking) or usual care. Posttraumatic growth, spirituality, acceptance, mindfulness, distress, and quality of life were assessed at baseline, 6 and 12 months. Results Significant intervention effects were observed for posttraumatic growth at 6 (7.5, p < 0.001) and 12 months (4.1, p = 0.033), spirituality at 6 months (1.8, p = 0.011), acceptance at 6 months (0.2, p = 0.005), and quality of life at 6 (0.8, p = 0.049) and 12 months (0.9, p = 0.037). Conclusions The intervention improved psychosocial outcomes and quality of life (physical well-being) at 6 months with most effects still present at 12 months. (Trial Registration Number: ACTRN12608000399392).

Intracellular concentrations of Ca2+ modulate the strength of signal and alter the outcomes of cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen-4 (CD152)-CD80/CD86 interactions in CD4(+) T lymphocytes

The costimulatory receptors CD28 and cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen (CTLA)-4 and their ligands, CD80 and CD86, are expressed on T lymphocytes; however, their functional roles during T cell-T cell interactions are not well known. The consequences of blocking CTLA-4-CD80/CD86 interactions on purified mouse CD4(+) T cells were studied in the context of the strength of signal (SOS). CD4(+) T cells were activated with phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) and different concentrations of a Ca2+ ionophore, Ionomycin (I), or a sarcoplasmic Ca2+ ATPase inhibitor, Thapsigargin (TG). Increasing concentrations of I or TG increased the amount of interleukin (IL)-2, reflecting the conversion of a low to a high SOS. During activation with PMA and low amounts of I, intracellular concentrations of calcium ([Ca2+](i)) were greatly reduced upon CTLA-4-CD80/CD86 blockade. Further experiments demonstrated that CTLA-4-CD80/CD86 interactions reduced cell cycling upon activation with PMA and high amounts of I or TG (high SOS) but the opposite occurred with PMA and low amounts of I or TG (low SOS). These results were confirmed by surface T-cell receptor (TCR)-CD3 signalling using a low SOS, for example soluble anti-CD3, or a high SOS, for example plate-bound anti-CD3. Also, CTLA-4-CD80/CD86 interactions enhanced the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Studies with catalase revealed that H2O2 was required for IL-2 production and cell cycle progression during activation with a low SOS. However, the high amounts of ROS produced during activation with a high SOS reduced cell cycle progression. Taken together, these results indicate that [Ca2+](i) and ROS play important roles in the modulation of T-cell responses by CTLA-4-CD80/CD86 interactions.

Informed learning in the undergraduate classroom: The role of information experiences in shaping outcomes

This research aimed to inform the design of effective information literacy lessons in higher education. Phenomenography, a research approach designed to study human experience, was used to explore the experiences of a teacher and undergraduate students using information to learn about language and gender issues. The findings show that the way learners use information influences content-focused learning outcomes, and reveal an instructional pattern for enabling students to use information while becoming aware of the topic they are investigating. Based on the findings, a design model is offered in which learning outcomes are realized through targeted information literacy activities.

Food literacy: Definitions, components, learning and links to diet and health outcomes

Recently, the term ‘food literacy’ has emerged in policy, research and practice to describe the collection of knowledge, skills and behaviours required to practically meet food needs. This presentation will described research undertaken to empirically define the term and propose its impact on nutrition