Using the effect size to model change in preference values from descriptive health status

Objectives: This pilot study describes a modelling approach to translate group-level changes in health status into changes in preference values, by using the effect size (ES) to summarize group-level improvement. Methods: ESs are the standardized mean difference between treatment groups in standard deviation (SD) units. Vignettes depicting varying severity in SD decrements on the SF-12 mental health summary scale, with corresponding symptom severity profiles, were valued by a convenience sample of general practitioners (n = 42) using the rating scale (RS) and time trade-off methods. Translation factors between ES differences and change in preference value were developed for five mental disorders, such that ES from published meta-analyses could be transformed into predicted changes in preference values. Results: An ES difference in health status was associated with an average 0.171-0.204 difference in preference value using the RS, and 0.104-0.158 using the time trade off. Conclusions: This observed relationship may be particular to the specific versions of the measures employed in the present study. With further development using different raters and preference measures, this approach may expand the evidence base available for modelling preference change for economic analyses from existing data.

Single patient (n-of-1) trials with binary treatment preference

The use of a fully parametric Bayesian method for analysing single patient trials based on the notion of treatment 'preference' is described. This Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach allows for full parameter uncertainty, use of prior information and the modelling of individual and patient sub-group structures. It provides updated probabilistic results for individual patients, and groups of patients with the same medical condition, as they are sequentially enrolled into individualized trials using the same medication alternatives. Two clinically interpretable criteria for determining a patient's response are detailed and illustrated using data from a previously published paper under two different prior information scenarios. Copyright (C) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dissecting the complex genetic basis of mate choice

The genetic analysis of mate choice is fraught with difficulties. Males produce complex signals and displays that can consist of a combination of acoustic, visual, chemical and behavioural phenotypes. Furthermore, female preferences for these male traits are notoriously difficult to quantify. During mate choice, genes not only affect the phenotypes of the individual they are in, but can influence the expression of traits in other individuals. How can genetic analyses be conducted to encompass this complexity? Tighter integration of classical quantitative genetic approaches with modern genomic technologies promises to advance our understanding of the complex genetic basis of mate choice.

Feeding preference and deterrence in rabbitfish Siganus fuscescens for the cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula in Moreton Bay, south-east Queensland, Australia

Rabbitfish Siganus fuscescens preferences for Lyngbya majuscula collected from three bloom locations in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia, were tested along with a range of local plant species in the laboratory. Consumption of L. majuscula by fish did not differ between wild and captive-bred fish (P = 0.152) but did differ between bloom location (P = 0.039). No relationship was found between consumption rates and lyngbyatoxin-a concentration (r(2) = 0.035, P = 0.814). No correlation existed between C : N and proportion of food consumed when all food types were analysed statistically, whereas a clear correlation was observed when L. majuscula was removed from the calculations. In simulated bloom conditions, fish avoided ingestion of L. majuscula by feeding through gaps in the L. majuscula coverage. Both wild and captive-bred S. fuscescens showed a distinct feeding pattern in 10 day no-choice feeding assays, with less L. majuscula being consumed than the preferred red alga Acanthophora spicifera. Lyngbya majuscula however, was consumed in equal quantities to A. spicifera by wild S. fuscescens when lyngbyatoxin-a was not detectable. Wild fish probably do not preferentially feed on L. majuscula when secondary metabolites are present and are not severely impacted by large L. majuscula blooms in Moreton Bay. Furthermore, poor feeding performance in both captive-bred and wild S. fuscescens suggests that they would exert little pressure as a top-down control agent of toxic L. majuscula blooms within Moreton Bay. (c) 2006 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Measuring natural and sexual selection on breeding values of male display traits in Drosophila serrata

Fundamental to many theories of sexual selection is the expectation that sexual traits, which males use in an attempt to increase mating success, confer costs as well as benefits to individual males. Although evolution of exaggerated male traits is predicted to be halted, by costs applied by natural selection, there is a lack of empirical work devoted to quantitatively establishing whether natural selection opposes sexual selection generated by the preferences of females. In this study, we quantified natural and sexual selection gradients on breeding values for cuticular hydrocarbon (CHC) components of male contact pheromones in Drosophila serrata. As male sexual traits may often be environmentally condition dependent, breeding values were used in the selection analysis to remove the possibility of environmental correlations between the measured trait and fitness biasing estimates of selection. The direction of natural selection was found to oppose sexual selection on a subset of CHCs examined. Opposing natural and sexual selection suggests that further evolution of the male pheromone may in part be limited by costs associated with attractive male CHC blends.

Male reproductive tactics and female choice in the solitary, promiscuous bridled nailtail wallaby (Onychogalea fraenata)

Several behavioral studies of large, gregarious, and sexually dimorphic macropods have shown that males form dominance hierarchies and large males have the highest reproductive success. The bridled nailtail wallaby (Onychogalea fraenata) is a smaller and strongly sexually dimorphic macropod, but is also highly solitary and males do not form dominance hierarchies that are maintained temporally or spatially. Genetic studies of paternity have shown that large males are the most reproductively successful and only one-quarter of males sire offspring at any one time. The aim of this study was to investigate the tactics that males adopt to secure access to females at the time of estrus and to investigate whether females can influence which males have access to them. This study was conducted using 2 wild, free-ranging populations of bridled nailtail wallabies. Females in estrus were located and observed. and the total number of males present, the relative weight rank of each mate, and interactions between individuals were recorded. Females showed a preference for large males and incited male-male competition when the group of males present was large. Unlike other dimorphic macropods, fights among males were rare and were restricted to males of similar size. Large males gained access to females by guarding and following them closely and threatening other males who attempted to gain access. Smaller males spent less time with females, suggesting that small males may leave multimale groups in an attempt to locate unguarded females. Given the solitary nature of this species and the lack of a stable dominance hierarchy to influence male reproductive success. mate searching and mate guarding may be important male reproductive tactics in this species.

The moderating effect of aural preference on neuroticism in the prediction of disinhibited behaviours

ISSID 2005