Improving electricity market price scenarios by means of forecasting factor models

In liberalized electricity markets, generation Companies must build an hourly bidthat is sent to the market operator. The price at which the energy will be paid is unknown during the bidding process and has to be forecast. In this work we apply forecasting factor models to this framework and study its suitability.

Monetary policy and rational asset price bubbles

I examine the impact of alternative monetary policy rules on arational asset price bubble, through the lens of an overlapping generations model with nominal rigidities. A systematic increase in interestrates in response to a growing bubble is shown to enhance the fluctuations in the latter, through its positive effect on bubble growth. Theoptimal monetary policy seeks to strike a balance between stabilization of the bubble and stabilization of aggregate demand. The paper'smain findings call into question the theoretical foundations of the casefor "leaning against the wind" monetary policies.

Optimal public rationing and price response.

We study optimal public health care rationing and private sector price responses. Consumers differ in their wealth and illness severity (defined as treatment cost). Due to a limited budget, some consumers must be rationed. Rationed consumers may purchase from a monopolistic private market. We consider two information regimes. In the first, the public supplier rations consumers according to their wealth information (means testing). In equilibrium, the public supplier must ration both rich and poor consumers. Rationing some poor consumers implements price reduction in the private market. In the second information regime, the public supplier rations consumers according to consumers' wealth and cost information. In equilibrium, consumers are allocated the good if and only if their costs are below a threshold (cost effectiveness). Rationing based on cost results in higher equilibrium consumer surplus than rationing based on wealth.

Elevated serum uric acid is associated with high circulating inflammatory cytokines in the population-based Colaus study.

BACKGROUND: The relation of serum uric acid (SUA) with systemic inflammation has been little explored in humans and results have been inconsistent. We analyzed the association between SUA and circulating levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta), tumor necrosis factor- alpha (TNF-alpha) and C-reactive protein (CRP). METHODS AND FINDINGS: This cross-sectional population-based study conducted in Lausanne, Switzerland, included 6085 participants aged 35 to 75 years. SUA was measured using uricase-PAP method. Plasma TNF-alpha, IL-1beta and IL-6 were measured by a multiplexed particle-based flow cytometric assay and hs-CRP by an immunometric assay. The median levels of SUA, IL-6, TNF-alpha, CRP and IL-1beta were 355 micromol/L, 1.46 pg/mL, 3.04 pg/mL, 1.2 mg/L and 0.34 pg/mL in men and 262 micromol/L, 1.21 pg/mL, 2.74 pg/mL, 1.3 mg/L and 0.45 pg/mL in women, respectively. SUA correlated positively with IL-6, TNF-alpha and CRP and negatively with IL-1beta (Spearman r: 0.04, 0.07, 0.20 and 0.05 in men, and 0.09, 0.13, 0.30 and 0.07 in women, respectively, P<0.05). In multivariable analyses, SUA was associated positively with CRP (beta coefficient +/- SE = 0.35+/-0.02, P<0.001), TNF-alpha (0.08+/-0.02, P<0.001) and IL-6 (0.10+/-0.03, P<0.001), and negatively with IL-1beta (-0.07+/-0.03, P = 0.027). Upon further adjustment for body mass index, these associations were substantially attenuated. CONCLUSIONS: SUA was associated positively with IL-6, CRP and TNF-alpha and negatively with IL-1beta, particularly in women. These results suggest that uric acid contributes to systemic inflammation in humans and are in line with experimental data showing that uric acid triggers sterile inflammation.

Nauloilla laadittu laki : työväentalojen sulkemiset 1929-1932

Summary: A law nailed down with force : the shutting down of labour halls in 1929-1932

[7 phot. de France: Pierrefonds (A. Dupré, phot. à Compiègne), Blois, Arles, Marseille en 1874 (phot. E. Neurdein, phot. à Paris), don W. Martin en 1892]

Donateur : Martin, William (18..-19..? ; diplomate)

[3 phot. des bords du Rhin près de Bonn, par Th. Greifeld, phot. à Cologne, don W. Martin en 1892]

Donateur : Martin, William (18..-19..? ; diplomate)