Implementing fisher Black's simple discounting rule

We propose a simple implementation of Black’s (1988) elegant rule for discounting uncertain future cash flows. Black’s rule avoids the thorny problem of estimating an appropriate risk-adjusted discount rate. Instead, the rule calls for discounting conditional mean cash flows at appropriate riskless interest rates. Our contribution in this article is to describe and illustrate a method of estimating the conditional mean cash flows called for in Black’s rule. The method is quite flexible with respect to the types of information available concerning the distributions of future cash flows. We argue that this approach to computing present values offers a theoretically sound and generally feasible addition to the toolbox of financial managers.

What is the incidence of intracranial bleeding in patients with mild traumatic brain injury? A retrospective study in 3088 Canadian CT head rule patients

OBJECTIVE Only limited data exists in terms of the incidence of intracranial bleeding (ICB) in patients with mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI). METHODS We retrospectively identified 3088 patients (mean age 41 range (7-99) years) presenting with isolated MTBI and GCS 14-15 at our Emergency Department who had undergone cranial CT (CCT) between 2002 and 2011. Indication for CCT was according to the "Canadian CT head rules." Patients with ICB were either submitted for neurosurgical treatment or kept under surveillance for at least 24 hours. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to correlate the incidence of ICB with age, gender, or intake of coumarins, platelet aggregation inhibitors, or heparins. RESULTS 149 patients (4.8%) had ICB on CCT. No patient with ICB died or deteriorated neurologically. The incidence of ICB increased with age and intake of anticoagulants without clinically relevant correlation (R = 0.11; P < 0.001; R = -0.06; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION Our data show an incidence of 4.8% for ICB after MTBI. However, neurological deterioration after MTBI seems to be rare, and the need for neurosurgical intervention is only required in selected cases. The general need for CCT in patients after MTBI is therefore questionable, and clinical surveillance may be sufficient when CCT is not available.

Prognostic value of the Geneva prediction rule in patients with pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND Assessment of pre-test probability of pulmonary embolism (PE) and prognostic stratification are two widely recommended steps in the management of patients with suspected PE. Some items of the Geneva prediction rule may have a prognostic value. We analyzed whether the initial probability assessed by the Geneva rule was associated with the outcome of patients with PE. METHODS In a post-hoc analysis of a multicenter trial including 1,693 patients with suspected PE, the all-cause death or readmission rates during the 3-month follow-up of patients with confirmed PE were analyzed. PE probability group was prospectively assessed by the revised Geneva score (RGS). Similar analyses were made with the a posteriori-calculated simplified Geneva score (SGS). RESULTS PE was confirmed in 357 patients and 21 (5.9%) died during the 3-month follow-up. The mortality rate differed significantly with the initial RGS group, as with the SGS group. For the RGS, the mortality increased from 0% (95% Confidence Interval: [0-5.4%]) in the low-probability group to 14.3% (95% CI: [6.3-28.2%]) in the high-probability group, and for the SGS, from 0% (95% CI: [0-5.4%] to 17.9% (95% CI: [7.4-36%]). Readmission occurred in 58 out of the 352 patients with complete information on readmission (16.5%). No significant change of readmission rate was found among the RGS or SGS groups. CONCLUSIONS Returning to the initial PE probability evaluation may help clinicians predict 3-month mortality in patients with confirmed PE. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00117169).

Searching for the majority: algorithms of voluntary control.

Voluntary control of information processing is crucial to allocate resources and prioritize the processes that are most important under a given situation; the algorithms underlying such control, however, are often not clear. We investigated possible algorithms of control for the performance of the majority function, in which participants searched for and identified one of two alternative categories (left or right pointing arrows) as composing the majority in each stimulus set. We manipulated the amount (set size of 1, 3, and 5) and content (ratio of left and right pointing arrows within a set) of the inputs to test competing hypotheses regarding mental operations for information processing. Using a novel measure based on computational load, we found that reaction time was best predicted by a grouping search algorithm as compared to alternative algorithms (i.e., exhaustive or self-terminating search). The grouping search algorithm involves sampling and resampling of the inputs before a decision is reached. These findings highlight the importance of investigating the implications of voluntary control via algorithms of mental operations.

D-dimer to Rule Out Pulmonary Embolism in Renal Insufficiency

BACKGROUND D-dimer levels are often elevated in renal insufficiency. The diagnostic accuracy of D-dimer to rule out pulmonary embolism in patients with renal insufficiency is unclear. METHODS We evaluated the data of patients presenting to our Emergency Department and receiving computed tomography angiography to rule out pulmonary embolism with measurement of D-dimer and creatinine. Glomerular filtration rate was calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula. RESULTS There were 1305 patients included; 1067 (82%) had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) exceeding 60 mL/min, 209 (16%) 30-60 mL/min, and 29 (2%) <30 mL/min. One hundred fifty-two patients (12%) had D-dimer below 500 μg/L. eGFR (R = -0.1122) correlated significantly with D-dimer (P <.0001). One hundred sixty-nine patients (13%) were found to have pulmonary embolism. Sensitivity of D-dimer for patients with an eGFR >60 mL/min was 96% (confidence interval [CI], 0.93-0.99) and 100% (CI, 100-100) for those with 30-60 mL/min, while specificity decreased significantly with impaired renal function. Area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic for D-dimer was 0.734 in patients with an eGFR of >60 mL/min, and 0.673 for 30-60 mL/min. CONCLUSIONS D-dimer levels were elevated in patients with an eGFR <60 mL/min, but proved to be highly sensitive for the exclusion of pulmonary embolism. However, because almost all patients with impaired renal function had elevated D-dimer irrespective of the presence of pulmonary embolism, studies should be performed to determine renal function-adjusted D-dimer cutoffs.

Lipid-protein interactions drive membrane protein topogenesis in accordance with the positive inside rule.

Transmembrane domain orientation within some membrane proteins is dependent on membrane lipid composition. Initial orientation occurs within the translocon, but final orientation is determined after membrane insertion by interactions within the protein and between lipid headgroups and protein extramembrane domains. Positively and negatively charged amino acids in extramembrane domains represent cytoplasmic retention and membrane translocation forces, respectively, which are determinants of protein orientation. Lipids with no net charge dampen the translocation potential of negative residues working in opposition to cytoplasmic retention of positive residues, thus allowing the functional presence of negative residues in cytoplasmic domains without affecting protein topology.

A study of the impact of cigarette advertising on adolescent susceptibility to smoking among 5th-, 8th-, and 12th-grade students in Hempstead and Hitchcock Independent School Districts

This study assessed the impact of cigarette advertising on adolescent susceptibility to smoking in the Hempstead and Hitchcock Independent School Districts. A convenience sample of 217 youths, 10-19 years of age was recruited in the study. Students completed both a paper-and-pencil and a computer-aided questionnaire in April 1996. Adolescents were defined as susceptible to smoking if they could not definitely rule out the possibility of future smoking. For the analysis, an index was devised: a 5-point index of an individual's receptivity to cigarette advertising. The index is determined by the number of positive responses to five survey items (recognizing cigarette brand logos, recognizing cigarette advertisement's pictures, recognizing cigarette brand slogans, evaluating adolescent attitudes toward cigarette advertising, and the degree to which adolescents were exposed to cigarette advertisements). Using logistic regression, we assessed the independent importance of the index in predicting susceptibility to smoking and ever smoking after adjusting for sociodemographic variables, perceived school performance and family composition. Of students surveyed, 54.4% of students appeared to have started the smoking uptake process as measured by susceptibility to smoking. Camel was recognized by the majority of students (88%), followed by Marlboro (41.5%) and Newport (40.1%). The pattern for recognition of the cigarette advertisements was the same as the pattern of market for cigarette. Advertisement featuring the cartoon character Joe Camel was significantly more appealing to adolescents than were advertisements with human models, with animal models, and with text only (p $<$ 0.001). Text only advertisement was significantly less appealing than other types of advertisements. The cigarette advertisement with White models (Marlboro) had significantly higher appeal to White students than to African-American students (p $<$ 0.001). The cigarette advertisement featuring African-American models (Virginia Slims) was significantly more appealing to African-American students than other ethnic groups (p $<$ 0.001). Receptivity to cigarette advertising was to be an important concurrent predictor of past smoking experience and intention to smoke in the future. Adolescents who scored in the fourth quartile of the Index of Receptivity to Cigarette Advertising were 7.54 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.92-29.56) times as likely to be susceptible to smoking, and were 4.56 (95% CI = 1.55-13.38) times as likely to have tried smoking, as those who scored in the first quartile of the Index. The findings confirmed the hypothesis that cigarette advertising may be a strong current influence in encouraging adolescents to initiate the smoking uptake process than sociodemographic variables, perceived school performance and family composition. ^

The location of majority and minority populations with respect to commercial treatment, storage, and disposal facilities in Texas

There is a growing interest in the location of Treatment, Storage, and Disposal (TSDF) sites in relation to minority communities. A number of studies have been completed, and the results of these studies have been varied. Some of the studies have shown a strong positive correlation between the location of TSDF sites and minority populations, while a few have shown no significance in that relationship. The major difference between these studies has been in the areal unit used.^ This study compared the minority populations of Texas census tracts and ZIP codes containing a TSDF using the associated county as the comparison population. The hypothesis of this study was that there was no difference between using census tracts and ZIP codes to analyze the relationship of minority populations and TSDF's. The census data used was from 1990, and the initial list of TSDF sites was supplied by the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission. The TSDF site locations were checked using graphical information systems (GIS) programs, in order to increase the accuracy of the identity of exposed ZIP codes and census tracts. The minority populations of the exposed areal units were compared using proportional differences, crosstables, maps, and logistic regression. The dependent variable used was the exposure status of the areal units under study, including counties, census tracts, and ZIP codes. The independent variables used included minority group proportion and grouping of the proportions, educational status, household income, and home value.^ In all cases, education was significant or near significant at the.05 level. Education rather than minority proportion was therefore the most significant predictor of the exposure status of a census tract or ZIP code. ^

Genetic Control of Plant Development by Overriding a Geometric Division Rule

Formative cell divisions are critical for multicellular patterning. In the early plant embryo, such divisions follow from orienting the division plane. A major unanswered question is how division plane orientation is genetically controlled, and in particular whether this relates to cell geometry. We have generated a complete 4D map of early Arabidopsis embryogenesis and used computational analysis to demonstrate that several divisions follow a rule that uses the smallest wall area going through the center of the cell. In other cases, however, cell division clearly deviates from this rule, which invariably leads to asymmetric cell division. By analyzing mutant embryos and through targeted genetic perturbation, we show that response to the hormone auxin triggers a deviation from the ``shortest wall'' rule. Our work demonstrates that a simple default rule couples division orientation to cell geometry in the embryo and that genetic regulation can create patterns by overriding the default rule.