Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

The effectiveness of workshops as managerial learning opportunities

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of workshops as a learning tool for small business owner‐managers (SBO‐Ms). It aims to concentrate on workshops delivered over 18 months from January 2007 to July 2008 as part of several publicly‐funded small business development programmes in two Australian local government areas (LGAs). Design/methodology/approach Effectiveness is measured in terms of meeting the overarching learning needs and expectations of participants in the context of the programme goals. The paper analyses data gathered from workshop participants either post‐workshop, in later focus groups or through a questionnaire as well as additional feedback from participants and the organisers' reflections. The thematic analysis is organised through an analogy of “going shopping”, where the SBO‐M shopper is buying “learning” when they attend a workshop. Findings Understanding motivation to participate or the “what's in it for me” is important as SBO‐Ms tend to be reluctant, resist or fail to engage with externally sponsored business support initiatives. Workshops were valued for the “space” they create to reflect on practice. For many SBO‐Ms, content “comes alive” with discussion while networking helps reduce the isolation SBO‐Ms can feel. Practical implications The shopping analogy suggests workshops must cater for purposeful shoppers as well as browsers, while interaction with others in the workshop is critical to realising the value of workshops. Originality/value Knowing whether, and how, workshops deliver learning can help to better target and refine these types of support initiatives to ensure they provide positive outcomes for individuals, organisations and economies.

Compensation for environmental services and intergovernmental fiscal transfers : the case of India

This paper studies mechanisms to compensate local government for the public provision of environmental services using the theory of optimal fiscal transfers in India. Especially, we analyzed the role of intergovernmental fiscal transfers in achieving the environmental goal. Simply assigning the functions at appropriate levels does not ensure optimal provision of environmental services. Optimality in resource allocation could be achieved by combining the assignment system with an appropriate compensation mechanism. Intergovernmental fiscal transfers would be a suitable mechanism for compensating the local governments and help in internalizing the spillover effects of providing environmental public goods. Illustrations are also provided for India.

Surveying the Wide Bay Burnett : changing lifestyles and the implications for regional transport planning

Significant lifestyle and demographic changes in Queensland are beginning to alter the landscape of regional transport planning. In 2006, Queensland Transport undertook a study to understand the implications of these changes on the transport planning task in regional Queensland. The study focused on the current travel characteristics of three Local Government Areas in the Wide Bay Burnett Region. Hervey Bay City represented the ‘sea change’ phenomenon; Wondai Shire represented the growing ‘tree change’ lifestyle; and Monto Shire represented communities which were either experiencing limited change or a decrease in population. The results of this research will be used to inform long term integrated regional transport planning in the region.

Young people, participation and public space

Young people are major users of public space, White (1990,1998) Loader (1996). * Young people are constructed as ‘problem’ and ‘non citizens’, Brown (1998). * Young people report feeling unconsulted, not part of community life, Measor & Squires (2000), Article 12 (2000), Tyler et al (1998). * Young people and citizenship/participation is a major issue. * Public Space issues affect others also such as the homeless, aged, women, Indigenous people and people of middle eastern appearance.

Tamworth Regional Council Social Plan 2006

The Tamworth Regional Social Plan is a document for collaborative planning involving the three spheres of government, the community and commercial sectors, with the aim of enhancing the quality and fairness of life in Tamworth. The Plan is a way of identifying needs and priorities for community facilities and services for Tamworth. The Social Plan reflects Council’s ongoing commitment to the people of the Tamworth Region and, in particular, the social needs and aspirations of our community. The Local Government (General) Amendment (Community and Social Plans) Regulation 1998 grew out of the 1996 NSW Social Justice Directions Statement “Fair Go, Fair Share, Fair Say” which committed the Department of Local Government to ensuring government services are responsive to community needs and diversity. The regulation is designed to:- • Improve Councils’ ability to take account of community needs when formulating their management plans; • Assist Councils to provide or advocate for appropriate and accessible services/facilities; and • Increase the community’s ability to monitor Council efforts in addressing community needs over time. The Local Government (General) Regulation 1999 requires that all councils develop a community/social plan and that all plans be prepared in accordance with guidelines issued by the Department. While Council has a broad function of providing leadership for Tamworth, it is not the only group responsible for providing community services. Developing the Social Plan has required cooperation with various State and Federal agencies as well as with Tamworth’s community groups and agencies.

Point Henry Bushfire Safety : 10 Year Plan

Bushfire responsive design and management strategy at the bioregion scale. 248 Page document containing text, original designs, photographs, masterplans and critique - created as an alternative community-based strategy for risk mitigation and management reponse to bushfire in the Point Henry and Bremer Bay region of Western Australia. Document drafted as an alternative to a local government commissioned plan which had many shortcomings. It was presented as a 'powerpoint' presentaion at a public meeting in Bremer Bay on 7th April 2014 and disseminated to local community members and councillors to encourage public debate and feedback to the Shire of Jerramungup, WA.

Little Boat Harbour Master Plan

Site analysis and landscape design developed for the Little Boat Harbour marine ecosystem and recreation area. Analysis conducted and design created by Dr Ian Weir QUT in collaboration with Mr Nathan McQuoid Landscape Ecologist and Mr Craig Lebens Bremer Bay Dive operater and marine ecologist (amateur). Includes A3 masterplan produced by Kylie Feher graduate architect in association with Dr Weir. Document presented to the 18 Dec 2013 Council meeting of the Shire of Jerramungup and subsequently adopted by that local government with implementation subject to funding.

Relocating a flood-affected community : good planning or good politics?

Problem, research strategy and findings: On January 10, 2011, the town of Grantham, Queensland (Australia), was inundated with a flash flood in which 12 of the town's 370 residents drowned. The overall damage bill in Queensland was AUD∃2.38 billion (USD∃2.4 billion) with 35 deaths, and more than three-quarters of the state was declared a flood disaster zone. In this study, we focus on the unusual and even rare decision to relocate Grantham in March 2011. The Lockyer Valley Regional Council (LVRC) acquired a 377-hectare (932-acre) site to enable a voluntary swap of equivalent-sized lots. In addition, planning regulations were set aside to streamline the relocation of a portion of the town. We review the natural hazard literature as it relates to community relocation, state and local government documents related to Grantham, and reports and newspaper articles related to the flood. We also analyze data from interviews with key stakeholders. We document the process of community relocation, assess the relocation process in Grantham against best practice, examine whether the process of community relocation can be upscaled and if the Grantham relocation is an example of good planning or good politics. Takeaway for practice: Our study reveals two key messages for practice. Community relocation (albeit a small one) is possible, and the process can be done quickly; some Grantham residents moved into their new, relocated homes in December 2012, just 11 months after the flood. Moreover, the role of existing planning regulations can be a hindrance to quick action; political leadership, particularly at the local level, is key to implementing the relocation.

Is climate change litigation an effective strategy for promoting greater action to address climate change? What other legal mechanisms might be appropriate?

In recent times a widespread consensus on the reality and gravity of anthropogenic climate change has emerged. Perceived inadequacies in the Australian government’s legal and policy responses to climate change issues have resulted in environmental activists increasingly turning to the courts as a strategy to promote greater action to address adverse climate impacts. The efficacy of this strategy for achieving climate goals is limited by the time and expense of litigating, the restrictions inherent in environmental law administrative challenges, and the possibility that judicial decisions may be overruled by the legislature. To date, climate change litigation in Australia has met with varied success, yet its significance extends beyond the court room as an important mechanism for raising public, political and commercial awareness about climate change issues. Ultimately, however, the types of far-reaching changes needed to mitigate and manage adverse climate impacts require strong regulatory backing. The most effective approach to addressing the complex challenges posed by climate change is a coordinated suite of regulatory measures spearheaded by the Federal Government.

Is biggest best? A comparative analysis of the financial viability of the Brisbane City Council

Structural reform through forced mergers has been a dominant feature of Australian local government for decades. Advocates of compulsory consolidation contend that larger municipalities perform better across a wide range of attributes, including financial sustainability. While empirical scholars of local government have invested considerable effort into investigating these claims, no-one has yet examined the performance of Brisbane City Council against other local authorities, despite the fact that it is by far the largest council in Australia. This paper seeks to remedy this neglect by comparing Brisbane with Sydney City Council, an average of six south east Queensland councils and an average of ten metropolitan New South Wales councils against four measures of financial performance over the period 2008 to 2011.

Planning and governance approaches for protecting World Heritage Areas: A comparison of the Great Barrier Reef and the Florida Everglades

The focus of this paper is on two World Heritage Areas: the Great Barrier Reef in Queensland, Australia and the Everglades in Florida. While both are World Heritage listed by the UNESCO, the Everglades is on the "World Heritage in Danger" list and the Great Barrier Reef could be on this list within the next year if present pressures continue. This paper examines the planning approaches and governance structures used in these two areas (Queensland and Florida) to manage the growth and development pressures. To make the analysis manageable, given the scale of these World Heritage areas, case studies at the local government level will be used: the Cairns Regional Council in Queensland and Monroe County in Florida. The case study analysis will involve three steps: (1) examination of the various plans at the federal, state, local levels that impact upon environmental quality in the Great Barrier Reef and Everglades; (2) assessing the degree to which these plans have been implemented; and (3) determine if (and how) the plans have improved environmental quality. In addition to the planning analysis we will also examine the governance structures (Lebel et al. 2006) within which planning operates. In any comparative analysis context is important (Hantrais 2009). Contextual differences between Queensland and Florida have previously been examined by Sipe, et al. (2007) and will be used as the starting point for this analysis. Our operating hypothesis and preliminary analysis suggests that the planning approaches and governance structures used in Florida and Queensland are considerably different, but the environmental outcomes may be similar. This is based, in part, on Vella (2004) who did a comparative analysis of environmental practices in the sugar industry in Florida and Queensland. This research re-examines this hypothesis and broadens the focus beyond the sugar industry to growth and development more broadly.

Towards Self-improving School Systems: Lessons from a City Challenge

This important new book draws lessons from a large-scale initiative to bring about the improvement of an urban education system. Written from an insider perspective by an internationally recognized researcher, it presents a new way of thinking about system change. This builds on the idea that there are untapped resources within schools and the communities they serve that can be mobilized in order to transform schools from places that do well for some children so that they can do well for many more. Towards Self-improving School Systems presents a strategic framework that can help to foster new, more fruitful working relationships: between national and local government; within and between schools; and between schools and their local communities. What is distinctive in the approach is that this is mainly led from within schools, with senior staff having a central role as system leaders. The book will be relevant to a wide range of readers throughout the world who are concerned with the strengthening of their national educational systems, including teachers, school leaders, policy makers and researchers. The argument it presents is particularly important for the growing number of countries where increased emphasis on school autonomy, competition and choice is leading to fragmentation within education provision.