Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Monetary Policy in Times of Financial Stress.

Some studies argue that the Fed reacts to financial market developments. Using data covering the period 1985:Q1 - 2008:Q4 and employing an augmented Taylor rule specification, we re-examine that conjecture. We find that evidence in favour of such a reaction is largely driven by the Fed’s behaviour during the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

Normal hemopoiesis and lymphopoiesis in the combined absence of numb and numblike.

The mammalian ortholog of the conserved Drosophila adaptor protein Numb (Nb) and its homolog Numblike (Nbl) modulate neuronal cell fate determination at least in part by antagonizing Notch signaling. Because the Notch pathway has been implicated in regulating hemopoietic stem cell self-renewal and T cell fate specification in mammals, we investigated the role of Nb and Nbl in hemopoiesis using conditional gene targeting. Surprisingly simultaneous deletion of both Nb and Nbl in murine bone marrow precursors did not affect the ability of stem cells to self-renew or to give rise to differentiated myeloid or lymphoid progeny, even under competitive conditions in mixed chimeras. Furthermore, T cell fate specification and intrathymic T cell development were unaffected in the combined absence of Nb and Nbl. Collectively our data indicate that the Nb family of adaptor proteins is dispensable for hemopoiesis and lymphopoiesis in mice, despite their proposed role in neuronal stem cell development.

A critical analysis of dimensions and curve fitting practice in economics

When dealing with sustainability we are concerned with the biophysical as well as the monetary aspects of economic and ecological interactions. This multidimensional approach requires that special attention is given to dimensional issues in relation to curve fitting practice in economics. Unfortunately, many empirical and theoretical studies in economics, as well as in ecological economics, apply dimensional numbers in exponential or logarithmic functions. We show that it is an analytical error to put a dimensional unit x into exponential functions ( a x ) and logarithmic functions ( x a log ). Secondly, we investigate the conditions of data sets under which a particular logarithmic specification is superior to the usual regression specification. This analysis shows that logarithmic specification superiority in terms of least square norm is heavily dependent on the available data set. The last section deals with economists’ “curve fitting fetishism”. We propose that a distinction be made between curve fitting over past observations and the development of a theoretical or empirical law capable of maintaining its fitting power for any future observations. Finally we conclude this paper with several epistemological issues in relation to dimensions and curve fitting practice in economics

State-dependent threshold STAR models

In this paper we consider extensions of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to situations where the threshold is a time-varying function of variables that affect the separation of regimes of the time series under consideration. Our specification is motivated by the observation that unusually high/low values for an economic variable may sometimes be best thought of in relative terms. State-dependent logistic STAR and contemporaneous-threshold STAR models are introduced and discussed. These models are also used to investigate the dynamics of U.S. short-term interest rates, where the threshold is allowed to be a function of past output growth and inflation.

Quality of care after acute coronary syndromes in a prospective cohort with reasons for non-prescription of recommended medications.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to guidelines is associated with improved outcomes of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Clinical registries developed to assess quality of care at discharge often do not collect the reasons for non-prescription for proven efficacious preventive medication in Continental Europe. In a prospective cohort of patients hospitalized for an ACS, we aimed at measuring the rate of recommended treatment at discharge, using pre-specified quality indicators recommended in cardiologic guidelines and including systematic collection of reasons for non-prescription for preventive medications. METHODS: In a prospective cohort with 1260 patients hospitalized for ACS, we measured the rate of recommended treatment at discharge in 4 academic centers in Switzerland. Performance measures for medication at discharge were pre-specified according to guidelines, systematically collected for all patients and included in a centralized database. RESULTS: Six hundred and eighty eight patients(54.6%) were discharged with a main diagnosis of STEMI, 491(39%) of NSTEMI and 81(6.4%) of unstable angina. Mean age was 64 years and 21.3% were women. 94.6% were prescribed angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers at discharge when only considering raw prescription rates, but increased to 99.5% when including reasons non-prescription. For statins, rates increased from 98% to 98.6% when including reasons for non-prescription and for beta-blockers, from 82% to 93%. For aspirin, rates further increased from 99.4% to 100% and from to 99.8% to 100% for P2Y12 inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: We found a very high adherence to ACS guidelines for drug prescriptions at discharge when including reasons for non-prescription to drug therapy. For beta-blockers, prescription rates were suboptimal, even after taking into account reason for non-prescription. In an era of improving quality of care to achieve 100% prescription rates at discharge unless contra-indicated, pre-specification of reasons for non-prescription for cardiovascular preventive medication permits to identify remaining gaps in quality of care at discharge. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01000701.

Especificación de procesos en industria química para la implantación de la producción en SAP R/3

En este proyecto se ha realizado un estudio en el campo del modelado de los procesos de negocio y sus notaciones. En concreto, se han analizado las notaciones BPMN y UML que se han usado para especificar los procesos en la gestión de la fabricación de una empresa química. Tras estas especificaciones, se ha realizado la comparación de estas dos notaciones con el fin de escoger la mejor de ellas para especificar procesos de negocio. A partir de la especificación de procesos, se ha descrito la implantación del módulo de fabricación de SAP en la misma empresa.

Macroeconomic shocks and the business cycle: evidence from a structural factor model

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign restrictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and fiscal. We obtain the following results. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of fluctuations; supply prevails for GDP, while demand prevails for employment and inflation. (ii) Policy matters, Both monetary and fiscal policy shocks have sizeable effects on output and prices, with little evidence of crowding out; both monetary and fiscal authorities implement important systematic countercyclical policies reacting to demand shocks. (iii) Negative demand shocks have a large long-run positive effect on productivity, consistently with the Schumpeterian "cleansing" view of recessions.

Application of a roughness-length representation to parameterize energy loss in 3-D numerical simulations of large rivers

Recent technological advances in remote sensing have enabled investigation of the morphodynamics and hydrodynamics of large rivers. However, measuring topography and flow in these very large rivers is time consuming and thus often constrains the spatial resolution and reach-length scales that can be monitored. Similar constraints exist for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies of large rivers, requiring maximization of mesh-or grid-cell dimensions and implying a reduction in the representation of bedform-roughness elements that are of the order of a model grid cell or less, even if they are represented in available topographic data. These ``subgrid'' elements must be parameterized, and this paper applies and considers the impact of roughness-length treatments that include the effect of bed roughness due to ``unmeasured'' topography. CFD predictions were found to be sensitive to the roughness-length specification. Model optimization was based on acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements and estimates of the water surface slope for a variety of roughness lengths. This proved difficult as the metrics used to assess optimal model performance diverged due to the effects of large bedforms that are not well parameterized in roughness-length treatments. However, the general spatial flow patterns are effectively predicted by the model. Changes in roughness length were shown to have a major impact upon flow routing at the channel scale. The results also indicate an absence of secondary flow circulation cells in the reached studied, and suggest simpler two-dimensional models may have great utility in the investigation of flow within large rivers. Citation: Sandbach, S. D. et al. (2012), Application of a roughness-length representation to parameterize energy loss in 3-D numerical simulations of large rivers, Water Resour. Res., 48, W12501, doi: 10.1029/2011WR011284.

The mzTab Data Exchange Format: Communicating Mass-spectrometry-based Proteomics and Metabolomics Experimental Results to a Wider Audience.

The HUPO Proteomics Standards Initiative has developed several standardized data formats to facilitate data sharing in mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics. These allow researchers to report their complete results in a unified way. However, at present, there is no format to describe the final qualitative and quantitative results for proteomics and metabolomics experiments in a simple tabular format. Many downstream analysis use cases are only concerned with the final results of an experiment and require an easily accessible format, compatible with tools such as Microsoft Excel or R. We developed the mzTab file format for MS-based proteomics and metabolomics results to meet this need. mzTab is intended as a lightweight supplement to the existing standard XML-based file formats (mzML, mzIdentML, mzQuantML), providing a comprehensive summary, similar in concept to the supplemental material of a scientific publication. mzTab files can contain protein, peptide, and small molecule identifications together with experimental metadata and basic quantitative information. The format is not intended to store the complete experimental evidence but provides mechanisms to report results at different levels of detail. These range from a simple summary of the final results to a representation of the results including the experimental design. This format is ideally suited to make MS-based proteomics and metabolomics results available to a wider biological community outside the field of MS. Several software tools for proteomics and metabolomics have already adapted the format as an output format. The comprehensive mzTab specification document and extensive additional documentation can be found online.

Disseny i implementació d'un sistema de control de projectes

Aquest treball de fi de carrera, com descriu el seu títol, consisteix a dissenyar i implementar un sistema de control de projectes. Com tot projecte, complirà el requisit de disposar d'un pla que permeti fer un seguiment dels terminis d'execució, de les fites establertes i un control dels lliurables identificats. Pel fet de tractar-se del desenvolupament d'un sistema informàtic, considerarà les etapes d'especificació de requisits, anàlisi, disseny, codificació, proves unitàries i proves funcionals, i es generaran els informes pertinents que serveixin de documentació i de referència en les etapes posteriors. Des d'un punt de vista tecnològic, permetrà aprofundir en el coneixement de l'estructura de funcionament del PL/SQL d'Oracle (crides a procediments i, especialment, al tractament).

Missing value imputation in longitudinal measures of alcohol consumption

Attrition in longitudinal studies can lead to biased results. The study is motivated by the unexpected observation that alcohol consumption decreased despite increased availability, which may be due to sample attrition of heavy drinkers. Several imputation methods have been proposed, but rarely compared in longitudinal studies of alcohol consumption. The imputation of consumption level measurements is computationally particularly challenging due to alcohol consumption being a semi-continuous variable (dichotomous drinking status and continuous volume among drinkers), and the non-normality of data in the continuous part. Data come from a longitudinal study in Denmark with four waves (2003-2006) and 1771 individuals at baseline. Five techniques for missing data are compared: Last value carried forward (LVCF) was used as a single, and Hotdeck, Heckman modelling, multivariate imputation by chained equations (MICE), and a Bayesian approach as multiple imputation methods. Predictive mean matching was used to account for non-normality, where instead of imputing regression estimates, "real" observed values from similar cases are imputed. Methods were also compared by means of a simulated dataset. The simulation showed that the Bayesian approach yielded the most unbiased estimates for imputation. The finding of no increase in consumption levels despite a higher availability remained unaltered. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cutting edge: an essential role for Notch-1 in the development of both thymus-independent and -dependent T cells in the gut.

Whereas most T cells arise in the thymus, a distinct lineage of extrathymically derived T cells is present in the gut mucosa. The developmental origin of extrathymic T cells is poorly understood. We show here that Notch-1, a transmembrane receptor involved in T cell fate specification of bipotential T/B precursors in the thymus, is absolutely required for the development of extrathymic (as well as thymus-derived) mature T cells in the intestinal epithelium. In the absence of Notch-1, CD117(+) T cell precursors are relatively more abundant in the gut than the thymus, whereas immature B cells accumulate in the thymus but not the gut. Collectively, these data demonstrate that Notch-1 is essential for both thymic and extrathymic T cell fate specification and further suggest that bipotential T/B precursors that do not receive a Notch-1 signal adopt a B cell fate in the thymus but become developmentally arrested in the gut.

Differential expression of notch signaling-related transcripts accompanies Pro-thymocyte proliferation and phenotype transition induced by epidermal growth factor plus insulin in fetal thymus organ cultures

Thymus regression upon stressing stimuli, such as infectious diseases, is followed by organ reconstitution, paralleling its development in ontogeny. A narrow window of thymus development was here studied, encompassing the pro-T lymphoid precursor expansion during specification stages, by the use of epidermal growth factor plus insulin (INS) in murine fetal thymus organ cultures. Aiming to disclose signaling pathways related to these stages, cultured thymus lobes had their RNA extracted, for the search of transcripts differentially expressed using RNAse protection assays and reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reactions. We found no difference that could explain INS-driven thymocyte growth, in the pattern of transcripts for death/proliferation mediators, or for a series of growth factor receptors and transcriptional regulators known as essential for thymus development. Thymocyte suspensions from cultured lobes, stained for phenotype analysis by fluorescence activated cell sorting, showed a decreased staining for Notch1 protein at cell surfaces upon INS addition. We analyzed the expression of Notch-related elements, and observed the recruitment of a specific set of transcripts simultaneous and compatible with INS-driven thymocyte growth, namely, transcripts for Notch3, for its ligand Jagged2, and for Deltex1, a mediator of a poorly characterized alternative pathway downstream of the Notch receptor.