Lake sediments as archives of recurrence rates and intensities of past flood events

Palaeoflood hydrology is an expanding field as the damage potential of flood and flood-related processes are increasing with the population density and the value of the infrastructure. Assessing the risk of these hazards in mountainous terrain requires knowledge about the frequency and severness of such events in the past. A wide range of methods is employed using diverse biologic, geomorphic or geologic evidences to track past flood events. Impact of floods are studied and dated on alluvial fans and cones using for example the growth disturbance of trees (Stoffel and Bollschweiler 2008; Schneuwly-Bollschweiler and Stoffel 2012: this volume) or stratigraphic layers deposited by debris flows, allowing to reconstruct past flood frequencies (Bardou et~al. 2003). Further downstream, the classical approach of palaeoflood hydrology (Kochel and Baker 1982) utilizes geomorphic indicators such as overbank sediments, silt lines and erosion features of floods along a river (e.g. Benito and Thorndycraft 2005). Fine-grained sediment settles out of the river suspension in eddies or backwater areas, where the flow velocity of the river is reduced. Records of these deposits at different elevations across a river’s profile can be used to assess the discharge of the past floods. This approach of palaeoflood hydrology studies was successfully applied in several river catchments (e.g. Ely et al. 1993; Macklin and Lewin 2003; O’Connor et al. 1994; Sheffer et al. 2003; Thorndycraft et al. 2005; Thorndycraft and Benito 2006). All these different reconstruction methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, but often these studies have a limited time coverage and the records are potentially incomplete due to lateral limits of depositional areas and due to the erosional power of fluvial processes that remove previously deposited flood witnesses. Here, we present a method that follows the sediment particle transported by a flood event to its final sink: the lacustrine basin.

The International ADHD in Substance Use Disorders Prevalence (IASP) study: background, methods and study population

Attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is an increasingly recognized comorbid condition in subjects with substance use disorders (SUDs). This paper describes the methods and study population of the International ADHD in Substance Use Disorders Prevalence (IASP) study. Objectives of the IASP are to determine the prevalence of ADHD in adult treatment seeking patients with SUD in different countries and SUD populations, determine the reliability and validity of the Adult ADHD Self-report Scale V 1.1 (ASRS) as ADHD screening instrument in SUD populations, investigate the comorbidity profile of SUD patients with and without ADHD, compare risk factors and protective factors in SUD patients with and without a comorbid diagnosis of ADHD, and increase our knowledge about the relationship between ADHD and the onset and course of SUD. In this cross-sectional, multi-centre two stage study, subjects were screened for ADHD with the ASRS, diagnosed with the Conner's Adult ADHD Diagnostic Interview for DSM-IV (CAADID), and evaluated for SUD, major depression, bipolar disorder, anti social personality disorder and borderline personality disorder. Three thousand five hundred and fifty-eight subjects from 10 countries were included. Of these 40.9% screened positive for ADHD. This is the largest international study on this population evaluating ADHD and comorbid disorders.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

ELUCIDATING THE ROLE OF CD44 EXPRESSION ON MESENCHYMAL STEM CELLS WITHIN THE TUMOR MICROENVIRONMENT

The tumor microenvironment is comprised of a vast array of heterogeneous cells including both normal and neoplastic cells. The tumor stroma recruitment process has been exploited for an effective gene delivery technique using bone marrow derived MSC. Targeted migration of the MSC toward the tumor microenvironment, while successful, is not yet fully understood. This study was designed to assess the role of CD44 in the migration of MSC toward the tumor microenvironment and to determine the implications of CD44-deficient MSC within the tumor stroma. Inhibition of MSC migration was evaluated through a variety of methods in vitro and in vivo including CD44 receptor knockdown, CD44 antagonists, CD44 neutralizing antibodies and small molecule inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinases. Blocking CD44 signaling through MMP inhibition was characterized by lack of intracellular domain cleavage and lead to the decrease in Twist gene expression. A functional relationship between CD44 and Twist expression was confirmed by chromatin immunoprecipitation. Next, a series of murine tumor models were used to examine the role of CD44 deficient stroma within the tumor microenvironment. Labeled transgenic CD44 knockout (KO) MSC or wild type (WT) C57/B6 MSC were used to analyze the stromal incorporation within murine breast carcinomas (EO771 and 4T1). Subsequent tumors were analyzed for vessel formation (CD31), and the presence of tumor associated fibroblast (TAF) markers, α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA), fibroblast activation protein (FAP), and fibroblast specific protein (FSP). The tumors with CD44KO MSC cells had less vessel formation than the tumors with WT MSC. The lack of fibroblastic TAF population as defined by FAP/FSP expression by the CD44KO MSC admixed tumors suggest that the bone marrow derived population of MSC were unable to contribute to the fibroblastic stromal population. Subsequently, a bone marrow transplantation experiment confirmed the endogenous migratory deficiencies of the CD44KO bone marrow derived stromal cells toward the tumor microenvironment in vivo. WT mice with CD44KO bone marrow had less CD44KOderived tumor stroma compared to mice with WT bone marrow. These results indicate that CD44 is crucial to stromal cell migration and incorporation to the tumor microenvironment as TAF.

Asking Sensitive Questions in Online Surveys: An Experimental Comparison of the Randomized Response Technique and the Crosswise Model

Self-administered online surveys provide a higher level of privacy protection to respondents than surveys administered by an interviewer. Yet, studies show that asking sensitive questions is problematic also in self-administered mode. Because respondents might not be willing to reveal the truth and provide answers that are subject to social desirability bias, the validity of prevalence estimates of sensitive behaviors gained via online surveys can be challenged. A well-known method to combat these problems is the Randomized Response Technique (RRT). However, convincing evidence that the RRT provides more valid estimates than direct questioning in online mode is still lacking. Moreover, an alternative approach called the Crosswise Model (CM) has recently been suggested to overcome some of the deficiencies of the RRT. In the context of an online survey on plagiarism and cheating on exams among students of two Swiss universities (N = 6,494), we tested different implementations of the RRT and the CM and compared them to direct questioning using a randomized experimental design. Results reveal a poor performance of the RRT, which failed to elicit higher prevalence estimates than direct questioning. Using the CM however, significantly higher prevalence estimates were obtained making it a promising new alternative to the conventional RRT.

Design and implementation of a multicriteria medical decision support system for diagnosis and treatment

Health care providers face the problem of trying to make decisions with inadequate information and also with an overload of (often contradictory) information. Physicians often choose treatment long before they know which disease is present. Indeed, uncertainty is intrinsic to the practice of medicine. Decision analysis can help physicians structure and work through a medical decision problem, and can provide reassurance that decisions are rational and consistent with the beliefs and preferences of other physicians and patients. ^ The primary purpose of this research project is to develop the theory, methods, techniques and tools necessary for designing and implementing a system to support solving medical decision problems. A case study involving “abdominal pain” serves as a prototype for implementing the system. The research, however, focuses on a generic class of problems and aims at covering theoretical as well as practical aspects of the system developed. ^ The main contributions of this research are: (1) bridging the gap between the statistical approach and the knowledge-based (expert) approach to medical decision making; (2) linking a collection of methods, techniques and tools together to allow for the design of a medical decision support system, based on a framework that involves the Analytic Network Process (ANP), the generalization of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to dependence and feedback, for problems involving diagnosis and treatment; (3) enhancing the representation and manipulation of uncertainty in the ANP framework by incorporating group consensus weights; and (4) developing a computer program to assist in the implementation of the system. ^

Metabolomics Reveals Aging-associated Attenuation of Noninvasive Radiation Biomarkers in Mice: Potential Role of Polyamine Catabolism and Incoherent DNA Damage-repair

Development of methods for rapid screening and stratification of subjects after exposure is an integral part of countermeasures against radiation. The potential demographic and exposure history-related heterogeneity of exposed populations warrants robust biomarkers that withstand and reflect such differences. In this study, the effect of aging and repeated exposure on the metabolic response to sublethal irradiation was examined in mice using UPLC-ESI-QTOF mass spectrometry. Aging attenuated postexposure elevation in excretions of DNA damage biomarkers as well as N(1)-acetylspermidine. Although N(1)-acetylspermidine and 2'-deoxyuridine elevation was highly correlated in all age groups, xanthine and N(1)-acetylspermidine elevation was poorly correlated in older mice. These results may reflect the established decline in DNA damage-repair efficiency associated with aging and indicate a novel role for polyamine metabolism in the process. Although repeated irradiation at long intervals did not affect the elevation of N(1)-acetylspermidine, 2'-deoxyuridine, and xanthine, it did significantly attenuate the elevation of 2'-deoxycytidine and thymidine compared to a single exposure. However, these biomarkers were found to identify exposed subjects with accuracy ranging from 82% (xanthosine) to 98% (2'-deoxyuridine), irrespective of their age and exposure history. This indicates that metabolic biomarkers can act as robust noninvasive signatures of sublethal radiation exposure.

Full-text publication of abstracts presented at European Orthodontic Society congresses.

INTRODUCTION Empirical evidence has indicated that only a subsample of studies conducted reach full-text publication and this phenomenon has become known as publication bias. A form of publication bias is the selectively delayed full publication of conference abstracts. The objective of this article was to examine the publication status of oral abstracts and poster-presentation abstracts, included in the scientific program of the 82nd and 83rd European Orthodontic Society (EOS) congresses, held in 2006 and 2007, and to identify factors associated with full-length publication. METHODS A systematic search of PubMed and Google Scholar databases was performed in April 2013 using author names and keywords from the abstract title to locate abstract and full-article publications. Information regarding mode of presentation, type of affiliation, geographical origin, statistical results, and publication details were collected and analyzed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS Approximately 51 per cent of the EOS 2006 and 55 per cent of the EOS 2007 abstracts appeared in print more than 5 years post congress. A mean period of 1.32 years elapsed between conference and publication date. Mode of presentation (oral or poster), use of statistical analysis, and research subject area were significant predictors for publication success. LIMITATIONS Inherent discrepancies of abstract reporting, mainly related to presentation of preliminary results and incomplete description of methods, may be considered in analogous studies. CONCLUSIONS On average 52.2 per cent of the abstracts presented at the two EOS conferences reached full publication. Abstracts presented orally, including statistical analysis, were more likely to get published.

Proteomic analysis of Plasmodium in the mosquito: progress and pitfalls

Here we discuss proteomic analyses of whole cell preparations of the mosquito stages of malaria parasite development (i.e. gametocytes, microgamete, ookinete, oocyst and sporozoite) of Plasmodium berghei. We also include critiques of the proteomes of two cell fractions from the purified ookinete, namely the micronemes and cell surface. Whereas we summarise key biological interpretations of the data, we also try to identify key methodological constraints we have met, only some of which we were able to resolve. Recognising the need to translate the potential of current genome sequencing into functional understanding, we report our efforts to develop more powerful combinations of methods for the in silico prediction of protein function and location. We have applied this analysis to the proteome of the male gamete, a cell whose very simple structural organisation facilitated interpretation of data. Some of the in silico predictions made have now been supported by ongoing protein tagging and genetic knockout studies. We hope this discussion may assist future studies.

Time relevance, citation of reporting guidelines, and breadth of literature search in systematic reviews in orthodontics

INTRODUCTION As the importance of systematic review (SR) conclusions relies upon the scientific rigor of methods and the currency of evidence, we aimed to investigate the currency of orthodontic SRs using as proxy the time from the initial search to publication. Additionally, SR information regarding reporting guidelines, registration, and literature searches were recorded when available. MATERIALS AND METHODS A systematic PubMed search was carried out using the Clinical Queries page to identify orthodontic SRs cited between 1 January 2008 and 7 November 2013. Data related to reporting guidelines, review registration, dates of review processing, literature search, and abstract reporting were retrieved and classified by journal type. Survival analysis was used to assess the time to reach predefined manuscript stages for orthodontic and non-orthodontic journals. RESULTS One hundred twenty seven of the originally identified 585 SRs were considered eligible. The median interval from search until publication was 13.2 months (interquartile range: IQR = 9.7 months) irrespective of the journal type. There was evidence (P = 0.05) that SRs published by non-orthodontic journals appeared in PubMed faster than in orthodontic journals (non-orthodontic: median = 6.5 months; IQR = 5.7 months; orthodontic: median = 10.2 months; IQR = 5.6 months) from submission to publication and from acceptance to publication (non-orthodontic: median = 1.5 months; IQR = 2.4 months; orthodontic: median = 6.0 months; IQR = 6.2 months; P < 0.001). More than half of these SRs did not cite adherence to any reporting guidelines, whereas all but five studies were not prospectively registered. Search of unpublished research was undertaken in approximately 21 per cent and 29 per cent of the SRs published in non-orthodontic and orthodontic periodicals, respectively. CONCLUSIONS This study indicates that SR users should be aware that median time for orthodontic SRs from search to publication is 13.2 months. SRs published in non-orthodontic journals are likely to be more current in terms of submission until time to publication and acceptance until time to publication compared with those published in orthodontic journals.

Analysis of Phenotypic Variation in Childhood Wheezing Disorders

Recurrent wheezing or asthma is a common problem in children that has increased considerably in prevalence in the past few decades. The causes and underlying mechanisms are poorly understood and it is thought that a numb er of distinct diseases causing similar symptoms are involved. Due to the lack of a biologically founded classification system, children are classified according to their observed disease related features (symptoms, signs, measurements) into phenotypes. The objectives of this PhD project were a) to develop tools for analysing phenotypic variation of a disease, and b) to examine phenotypic variability of wheezing among children by applying these tools to existing epidemiological data. A combination of graphical methods (multivariate co rrespondence analysis) and statistical models (latent variables models) was used. In a first phase, a model for discrete variability (latent class model) was applied to data on symptoms and measurements from an epidemiological study to identify distinct phenotypes of wheezing. In a second phase, the modelling framework was expanded to include continuous variability (e.g. along a severity gradient) and combinations of discrete and continuo us variability (factor models and factor mixture models). The third phase focused on validating the methods using simulation studies. The main body of this thesis consists of 5 articles (3 published, 1 submitted and 1 to be submitted) including applications, methodological contributions and a review. The main findings and contributions were: 1) The application of a latent class model to epidemiological data (symptoms and physiological measurements) yielded plausible pheno types of wheezing with distinguishing characteristics that have previously been used as phenotype defining characteristics. 2) A method was proposed for including responses to conditional questions (e.g. questions on severity or triggers of wheezing are asked only to children with wheeze) in multivariate modelling.ii 3) A panel of clinicians was set up to agree on a plausible model for wheezing diseases. The model can be used to generate datasets for testing the modelling approach. 4) A critical review of methods for defining and validating phenotypes of wheeze in children was conducted. 5) The simulation studies showed that a parsimonious parameterisation of the models is required to identify the true underlying structure of the data. The developed approach can deal with some challenges of real-life cohort data such as variables of mixed mode (continuous and categorical), missing data and conditional questions. If carefully applied, the approach can be used to identify whether the underlying phenotypic variation is discrete (classes), continuous (factors) or a combination of these. These methods could help improve precision of research into causes and mechanisms and contribute to the development of a new classification of wheezing disorders in children and other diseases which are difficult to classify.

Get real in individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis: a review of the methodology.

Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis is an increasingly used approach for synthesizing and investigating treatment effect estimates. Over the past few years, numerous methods for conducting an IPD meta-analysis (IPD-MA) have been proposed, often making different assumptions and modeling choices while addressing a similar research question. We conducted a literature review to provide an overview of methods for performing an IPD-MA using evidence from clinical trials or non-randomized studies when investigating treatment efficacy. With this review, we aim to assist researchers in choosing the appropriate methods and provide recommendations on their implementation when planning and conducting an IPD-MA. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Efficacy of patient-administered mechanical and/or chemical plaque control protocols in the management of peri-implant mucositis. A systematic review

AIM To systematically assess the efficacy of patient-administered mechanical and/or chemical plaque control protocols in the management of peri-implant mucositis (PM). MATERIAL AND METHODS Randomized (RCTs) and Controlled Clinical Trials (CCTs) were identified through an electronic search of three databases complemented by manual search. Identification, screening, eligibility and inclusion of studies was performed independently by two reviewers. Studies without professional intervention or with only mechanical debridement professionally administered were included. Quality assessment was performed by means of the Cochrane Collaboration's tool for assessing risk of bias. RESULTS Eleven RCTs with a follow-up from 3 to 24 months were included. Definition of PM was lacking or heterogeneously reported. Complete resolution of PM was not achieved in any study. One study reported 38% of patients with complete resolution of PM. Surrogate end-point outcomes of PM therapy were often reported. The choice of control interventions showed great variability. The efficacy of powered toothbrushes, a triclosan-containing toothpaste and adjunctive antiseptics remains to be established. High quality of methods and reporting was found in four studies. CONCLUSIONS Professionally- and patient-administered mechanical plaque control alone should be considered the standard of care in the management of PM. Therapy of PM is a prerequisite for the prevention of peri-implantitis.

Cell cycle reactivation of cochlear progenitor cells in neonatal FUCCI mice by a GSK3 small molecule inhibitor.

Due to the lack of regenerative capacity of the mammalian auditory epithelium, sensory hair cell loss results in permanent hearing deficit. Nevertheless, a population of tissue resident stem/progenitor cells has been recently described. Identification of methods to trigger their activity could lead to exploitation of their potential therapeutically. Here we validate the use of transgenic mice reporting cell cycle progression (FUCCI), and stemness (Lgr5-GFP), as a valuable tool to identify regulators of cell cycle re-entry of supporting cells within the auditory epithelium. The small molecule compound CHIR99021 was used to inhibit GSK3 activity. This led to a significant increase in the fraction of proliferating sphere-forming cells, labeled by the FUCCI markers and in the percentage of Lgr5-GFP + cells, as well as a selective increase in the fraction of S-G2-M cells in the Lgr5 + population. Using whole mount cultures of the organ of Corti we detected a statistically significant increment in the fraction of proliferating Sox2 supporting cells after CHIR99021 treatment, but only rarely appearance of novel MyoVIIa+/Edu + hair cells. In conclusion, these tools provide a robust mean to identify novel regulators of auditory organ regeneration and to clarify the contribution of stem cell activity.

Derivation of Change from Sequences of Snapshots

Current research in the domain of geographic information science considers possibilities of including another dimension, time, which is generally missing to this point. Users interested in changes have few functions available to compare datasets of spatial configurations at different points in time. Such a comparison of spatial configurations requires large amounts of manual labor. An automatic derivation of changes would decrease amounts of manual labor. The thesis introduces a set of methods that allows for an automatic derivation of changes. These methods analyze identity and topological states of objects in snapshots and derive types of change for the specific configuration of data. The set of change types that can be computed by the methods presented includes continuous changes such as growing, shrinking, and moving of objects. For these continuous changes identity remains unchanged, while topological relations might be altered over time. Also discrete changes such as merging and splitting where both identity and topology are affected can be derived. Evaluation of the methods using a prototype application with simple examples suggests that the methods compute uniquely and correctly the type of change that applied in spatial scenarios captured in two snapshots.